re: your real jail time calculation/parole
you may wish to look at this link regarding eligibility for parole.
pistorius will be section 73(6)(v). which would be 4/5ths for the minimum sentence offences. [but could be 2/3rds at Masipa's discretion]
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Section 73(6)(a) of the Correctional Services Act provides that:
a prisoner serving a determinate sentence may not be placed on parole until such a prisoner has served either the stipulated non-parole period, or if no non-parole period was stipulated, half of the sentence, but parole must be considered whenever a prisoner has served 25 years of a sentence or cumulative sentences.
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Under section 73(6)(v), an offender sentenced in terms of the Criminal Law Amendment Act [44], which provides for minimum sentences for stipulated offences: [45]
may not be placed on parole unless he or she has served at least four fifths of the term of imprisonment imposed or 25 years, whichever is the shorter, but the court, when imposing imprisonment, may order that the prisoner be considered for placement on parole after he or she has served two thirds of such term.
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http://www.nwu.ac.za/sites/www.nwu....epages/2011volume14no5/MujuziDOC2011(14)5.pdf