PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #14

[Trackergd]

I can see merits to both J.J's and SS's theories. Oddly enough I think they compliment each other in some areas. This is looking less and less like suicide to me (and I could be wrong), just seems too elaborate. I don't think it was a voluntary exit. More to me like he was forced to leave which would explain his behavior prior to going missing.

So my question would be, what could someone have on RG that could be used as leverage to get him to quietly leave and destroy the laptop?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I can see merits to both J.J's and SS's theories. Oddly enough I think they compliment each other in some areas. This is looking less and less like suicide to me (and I could be wrong), just seems too elaborate. I don't think it was a voluntary exit. More to me like he was forced to leave which would explain his behavior prior to going missing.

So my question would be, what could someone have on RG that could be used as leverage to get him to quietly leave and destroy the laptop?

RFG being "forced to leave" would be voluntary departure, unless it was an actual kidnapping.

 

[Trackergd]

RG leaves from Bellefonte and heads towards Lewisburg. He is spotted by a reliable witness near Center Hall and makes a phone call to PF. He is spotted by witnesses in Lewisburg in the Mini tinkering with the laptop. He tosses the laptop and drive in the river and waits for the "helper" to arrive. The helper (who smokes) gets into the passenger side of the Mini for a short discussion, they get out and get into a car brought by the helper and drive back to Bellefonte where the helper exits the vehicle either before or in the parking lot of the Court House. RG exits the parking lot and heads West on Main where the trail goes cold.

Please feel free to pick this apart and make suggestions.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

RG leaves from Bellefonte and heads towards Lewisburg. He is spotted by a reliable witness near Center Hall and makes a phone call to PF. He is spotted by witnesses in Lewisburg in the Mini tinkering with the laptop. He tosses the laptop and drive in the river and waits for the "helper" to arrive. The helper (who smokes) gets into the passenger side of the Mini for a short discussion, they get out and get into a car brought by the helper and drive back to Bellefonte where the helper exits the vehicle either before or in the parking lot of the Court House. RG exits the parking lot and heads West on Main where the trail goes cold.

Please feel free to pick this apart and make suggestions.

Neither RFG nor the car is on the security camera tape on Friday, 4/15/05 at or about 3:00 PM. I am told that Fenton was. It is possible that RFG was on the street on that date, as opposed to the parking lot.

No actual evidence that the helper, or the other person, was actually inside the car, but that is a minor point.

There are a minimum of five witnesses that put RFG in Lewisburg after that, at least two that put him in the Mini, on 4/15, so the trail doesn't go cold (though it would conflict with the theory).

No evidence that RFG tossed the drive or the laptop prior to 3:00 PM, though it is logical in this scenario.

 

[SuperSmith]

Which witnesses saw Gricar in Lewisburg Friday evening? I know of the Saturday accounts and McKnights on Friday but what other ones JJ and a link to this would be helpful.

 

[SuperSmith]

JJ I have read what you think you know about the witnesses Friday and Saurday and except for a couple of them you have nothing to back up what your saying. Fenton, Snyder, and the SOS owner are the only ones that are "remotely" reported and talked about. I think you want to solve this case so badly that you tend to reach and that is unfortunate. None of the newer stories mention these other witnesses u talk about and I don't think LE gives them much weight or have discounted them completely.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Which witnesses saw Gricar in Lewisburg Friday evening? I know of the Saturday accounts and McKnights on Friday but what other ones JJ and a link to this would be helpful.

Two or more witnesses saw RFG moving the Mini in the parking lot around 5:30 PM on 4/15. It was first reported by Bosak in 2008 after the "dueling press conference" so you will have to check the CDT back issues, and it was restated on Disappeared by either DZ or MR.

Brad Alvey saw him in the evening of either 4/15 or 4/16 (I treat it as the earlliest time): http://www.collegian.psu.edu/archives/article_0aff3974-e057-5693-87dd-3e7d09d5e596.html

There would have been enough time for RFG switch cars, to gone back to Bellefonte, be seen by Fenton at 3:00 PM, return to Lewisburg to and be spotted by McKnight's witness between 4:00 PM and 5:00 PM, be seen in the parking lot at about 5:30 PM and be seen by the witnesses in the SoS in the evening (or even before. It doesn't help in verifying, or refuting, Fenton.

The only thing against the Fenton sighting is that RFG is not on the video.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

JJ I have read what you think you know about the witnesses Friday and Saurday and except for a couple of them you have nothing to back up what your saying. Fenton, Snyder, and the SOS owner are the only ones that are "remotely" reported and talked about. I think you want to solve this case so badly that you tend to reach and that is unfortunate. None of the newer stories mention these other witnesses u talk about and I don't think LE gives them much weight or have discounted them completely.

I just posted the references, and they are publicly available.

 

[MissJ]

As has been stated previously by many, eye witnesses are notoriously unreliable. Fact.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

As has been stated previously by many, eye witnesses are notoriously unreliable. Fact.

Agreed, but we have a number of ones reported. We also know that the Mini was seen, with RFG in it, in the lot where it was found and where RFG's scent was detected by the dog.

Also remember that the incorrect eyewitness might be Fenton.

 

[Trackergd]

Agreed, but we have a number of ones reported. We also know that the Mini was seen, with RFG in it, in the lot where it was found and where RFG's scent was detected by the dog.

Also remember that the incorrect eyewitness might be Fenton.

If I were to discount Fenton and Grine, I would have to assume they were willfully sewing misinformation, and of course wonder why. My next problem is that this is now looking like a two day event occurring on both the 14th and 15th which is rather odd considering that RG would rightly assume that a BOLO would have been out by early on the 15th. I think it is reasonable to assume that driving from Bellefonte to Lewisburg, back to Bellefonte, then possibly back to Lewisburg and involving at least two cars and another party (helping or hostile) is a rather involved scenario where in so many things could have gone wrong, not the least of which would to be seen by multiple people (unless that was RG's intent...breadcrumb trail). One phone call to PF...I keep thinking about that.

 

[Trackergd]

Something I never considered, leaving Bellefonte and heading West or Lewisburg and heading North would put you on less traveled roads that would have you in Canada in less than a day...

 

[J. J. in Phila]

If I were to discount Fenton and Grine, I would have to assume they were willfully sewing misinformation, and of course wonder why. My next problem is that this is now looking like a two day event occurring on both the 14th and 15th which is rather odd considering that RG would rightly assume that a BOLO would have been out by early on the 15th. I think it is reasonable to assume that driving from Bellefonte to Lewisburg, back to Bellefonte, then possibly back to Lewisburg and involving at least two cars and another party (helping or hostile) is a rather involved scenario where in so many things could have gone wrong, not the least of which would to be seen by multiple people (unless that was RG's intent...breadcrumb trail). One phone call to PF...I keep thinking about that.

First, I doubt it would be willing misinformation, though I would not rule out Thursday, 4/14.

RFG was at home in the morning of 4/15.

I don't agree on the timing of the BOLO. He might have thought that LE wouldn't do anything until Saturday morning, at the earliest. His last contact was around 11:30 AM on 4/15. PEF certainly would not miss him while she was at work. He may have thought that, if he didn't come home, she would call LE later on Saturday.

The only involved part is the helper (H). Once H delivers the car, he/she has to get home. RFG would likely be the driver. RFG could then return to Lewisburg and lead everyone to think he wads there all afternoon.

 

[SuperSmith]

I keep thinking about the fact it would've been better to disappear (if that was his intention) two weeks prior and before the time change. Would've given him an extra hour of darkness . This whole walkaway theory is ridiculous. Sorry

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I keep thinking about the fact it would've been better to disappear (if that was his intention) two weeks prior and before the time change. Would've given him an extra hour of darkness . This whole walkaway theory is ridiculous. Sorry

He actually would have lost an hour. Spring forward, fall back.

 

[SuperSmith]

Yep and there isn't much support to them any longer and if Fentons account can be discarded so easily by LE then I can with others

 

[SuperSmith]

That's what I'm saying JJ. Better to disappear BEFORE the time change the first week of April! He lost an hour of darkness after that. By the 15 we sprung forward and it was staying light out an hour longer! Lmao

 

[J. J. in Phila]

That's what I'm saying JJ. Better to disappear BEFORE the time change the first week of April! He lost an hour of darkness after that. By the 15 we sprung forward and it was staying light out an hour longer! Lmao

Actually two factors. Daylight starts getting longer on 3/21-3/22. You can still have weather issues in March in central PA.

 

[Hbgchick]

Was it indicated WHERE on the passenger side floor was the cigarette ash? If a person is driving and smoking and is right handed, it is possible that they could have had the cigarette in their hand while shifting and landed ash on the passenger side close to the gearshift. However, if it was nearer the door, that would be less possible.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Was it indicated WHERE on the passenger side floor was the cigarette ash? If a person is driving and smoking and is right handed, it is possible that they could have had the cigarette in their hand while shifting and landed ash on the passenger side close to the gearshift. However, if it was nearer the door, that would be less possible.

That I don't know. There was nothing on the driver's side, however, which would be more likely with a hand shift.