Ransom note analysis

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Well the case never went to trial so we'll never know what experts were willing to say, will we?

The thing about handwriting analysis is that actual letters are very simple. Most characters are formed of one or two lines. It is difficult to say with certainty that Patsy wrote the note for two reasons, it was written with a sharpie and Patsy deliberately altered her writing style in the samples she provided police. The RN is very consistent in its character formations, so we can probably say that the only effort to mask their identity was to print rather than write. In samples of Patsy's printing provided after the fact, the characters are not uniform from beginning to end. For every character I examined, they started as something completely different than the RN, then as she wrote more, the morphed in to something very similar to the RN. Not once did I find a character that started looking similar to the RN, that would morph in to something different. It is blatantly obvious that Patsy was making a deliberate attempt to alter her writing style. The experts matched her writing as best they could, by character formation and paragraph and sentence structure, but as she was being deceptive, the could not make a 100% conclusion. But you have to ask yourself what the odds are that a complete stranger (intruder) would have handwritting that similar to Patsy's?

I believe if there had been a trial, those are the types of things the experts would have testified to. They didn't have to conclusively identify her, but their testimony could be damning nonetheless.


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Actually, the Carnes report and related depositions do give us a pretty good idea as to 1) which experts the Court might accept and 2) what those experts would say in Court. One can rail against Carnes as they wish and certainly some criticism can be directed towards what was presented to Carnes, but within the context of what was presented, the Carnes Decision was sound. And, we know that Carnes was presented with expert opinion on the matter of the ransom note.

“None of the six consulted experts identified Mrs. Ramsey as the author of the Ransom Note. (SMF 195; PSMF 195.) Rather, the experts' consensus was that she "probably did not" write the Ransom Note. (SMF, 196; PSMF 196.)14 On a scale of one to five, with five being elimination as the author of the Ransom Note, the experts placed Mrs. Ramsey at a 4.5 or a 4.0. (SMF 203; PSMF 203.) The experts described the chance of Mrs. Ramsey being the author of the Ransom Note as "very low." - Carnes

So, disagree or argue against; that’s fine. But, let’s not say that we don’t know what the experts might say.
...

AK
 
From the history, it may help you to understand what I`m trying and trying to say:


"Consideration of Epstein'. Testimony That He Was Absolutely Certain that Mrs. Ramaey Wrote the Ransom Note
The Court has earlier indicated its conclusion that there is insufficient reliability to Mr. Epstein's methodology to permit him to state his conclusion that Mrs. Ramsey wrote the Ransom Note. As noted supra, Epstein opined that he is "100 percent certain" that Patsy Ramsey wrote the Ransom Note and that "there is absolutely no doubt" that she is the author. Supra at 51. The Court believes its conclusion on the admissibility of this evidence to be correct. Further, as the identify of the writer is virtually the only evidence that plaintiff can offer to shoulder its burden, then the question of the identity of the writer is synonymous with the underlying question in this litigation: did Mrs. Ramsey kill her child. Nevertheless, even if the Court were to permit Epstein to testify as to the above conclusion, the Court does not believe his testimony would provide the "clear and convincing evidence" necessary for a reasonable finder of fact to conclude that Mrs. Ramsey wrote the note.

Not really understanding what you are getting at with this :thinking:
 
And you don't think that it is an astronomical coincidence that in world without billion different handwriting styles, the person that killed Jonbenet happened to have a handwriting style so similar to one of the two adults in the house, that it could not be eliminated by any of the half dozen or so experts that examined it? You represent yourself as person of logic, but there seems to be many instances where you are thinking with your heart instead of your head.

I think your reasoning is wrong, and your numbers too. That Patsy's handwriting can not be eliminated does not mean that it is the only one in the world that can not be eliminated. Can they rule out 20% of the handwritings? 50%? 80%?
In fact, one of the most irritating things of the so called experts is the lack of data provided to give context to his claims.

I remember (of PMPT book, I think) that there were more handwritings that could not be eliminated, including Santa´s.
 
when I went to look at samples at ACR, you can clearly see that before the RN, she wrote her lower case a's like this and then after she changed to the a with the tail at the bottom-when printing. When she was in cursive she wrote a "normal" a. Not like the ones when typing here. Anybody understand?? lol

Patsy was asked, I believe, about why-after JB's murder- she printed any notes sent to school, but previous to that they were handwritten.
 
I think your reasoning is wrong, and your numbers too. That Patsy's handwriting can not be eliminated does not mean that it is the only one in the world that can not be eliminated. Can they rule out 20% of the handwritings? 50%? 80%?
In fact, one of the most irritating things of the so called experts is the lack of data provided to give context to his claims.

I remember (of PMPT book, I think) that there were more handwritings that could not be eliminated, including Santa´s.

Somewhere I did see one of the experts quantify the likelihood of Patsy's handwriting coincidentally matching the ransom note and the odds were astronomical.

The similarities between Patsy's writing and the note are obvious. The fact that Patsy altered her writing style after the fact is obvious. You don't have to be a genius to figure this out! I don't think there is a person on this planet that could match that printing with 100% certainty, but when you factor in the content of the letter, the handwriting itself, her purposely altering her handwriting style after the fact, and the fact that she was at the scene of the crime and the note was written on her pad with her pen, you would have to be a bit on the slow side to think that there was not a very good chance that Patsy wrote that note!


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I think your reasoning is wrong, and your numbers too. That Patsy's handwriting can not be eliminated does not mean that it is the only one in the world that can not be eliminated. Can they rule out 20% of the handwritings? 50%? 80%?
In fact, one of the most irritating things of the so called experts is the lack of data provided to give context to his claims.

I remember (of PMPT book, I think) that there were more handwritings that could not be eliminated, including Santa´s.

"so called experts"?

Why are they so called and not just experts?
 
Patsy was asked, I believe, about why-after JB's murder- she printed any notes sent to school, but previous to that they were handwritten.

yeah I don't know how anyone can look at that and still say she didn't change her handwriting?? it baffles me
 
Somewhere I did see one of the experts quantify the likelihood of Patsy's handwriting coincidentally matching the ransom note and the odds were astronomical.
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A genius, no doubt!.
 
I'll have to respectfully disagree since handwriting analysis is pretty precise. JMO.
Some experts meet ABFDE standards and some don't. Some ABFDE experts analyzed the original ransom note, historical exemplars, and dictated samples, while others did not. Of all the court qualified experts that adhered to professional document examination procedures NOT 1 identified PR as the author, and the consensus among these experts was that PR likely DID NOT pen the RN.
 
Link please? My understanding is NO ONE excluded her completely.
 
A genius, no doubt!.

Maybe, maybe not. But he made his living doing this and was called as an expert in one of the biggest murder cases in history. You on the other hand make unfounded accusations about his credibility and pretend to be an expert on a pretend website. Who do I believe? Hmm, let me think about that.


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Some experts meet ABFDE standards and some don't. Some ABFDE experts analyzed the original ransom note, historical exemplars, and dictated samples, while others did not. Of all the court qualified experts that adhered to professional document examination procedures NOT 1 identified PR as the author, and the consensus among these experts was that PR likely DID NOT pen the RN.

That is not what I've read. The only expert that I've heard of that said Patsy did not write the note was the one hired by the Ramsey's. Even he couldn't eliminate her though.


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That is not what I've read. The only expert that I've heard of that said Patsy did not write the note was the one hired by the Ramsey's. Even he couldn't eliminate her though.


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According to sworn testimony, in Wolf v. Ramsey, the consensus of the 6 handwriting experts consulted by LE in this case was that PR "probably did not write" the RN -&- "The experts described the chance of Mrs. Ramsey being the author of the Ransom Note as 'very low.'"



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Chester A. Ubowski
Some of Ubowski's preliminary findings were revealed in the affidavit used as justification for the Charlevoix search warrant. According to affiant Jane Harmer, Ubowski provided Detective Linda Arndt the following information: "The analysis of the handwriting samples obtained from Patsy Ramsey showed "indications" which suggest that Patsy Ramsey may have written the reported ransom note." Later in the affidavit, Harmer further states "He determined that there is evidence which indicates the ransom note may have been written by Patricia Ramsey but "the evidence falls short of that necessary to support a definite conclusion." Ubowski "is said to have found 24 of 26 letters in the ransom note which matched exemplars from Patsy Ramsey"

Leonard Speckin
concluded that differences between the writing of Mrs. Ramsey's handwriting and the author of the Ransom Note prevented him from identifying Mrs. Ramsey as the author of the Ransom Note, but he was unable to eliminate her. "When I compare the handwriting habits of Patsy Ramsey with those in the questioned ransom note, there exists agreement to the extent that some of her individual letter formations and letter combinations do appear in the ransom note." (Epstein Deposition (p. 138:9-14) "When this agreement is weighed against the number, type and consistency of the differences present, I am unable to identify Patsy Ramsey as the author of the questioned ransom note with any degree of certainty. I am, however, unable to eliminate her as the author." However, Speckin reportedly was ready to testify that "there was only an infinitesimal chance that some random intruder would have handwriting characteristics so remarkably similar to those of a parent sleeping upstairs."

Edwin F. Alford, Jr.
Edwin Alford, a private forensic document examiner, states the evidence fell short of that needed to support a conclusion that Mrs. Ramsey wrote the note.

Lloyd Cunningham (Hired by the Ramseys)
Lloyd Cunningham, a private forensic document examiner hired by defendants, concluded that there were no significant similar individual characteristics shared by the handwriting of Mrs. Ramsey and the author of the Ransom Note, but there were many significant differences between the handwritings. In his Wolf v. Ramsey deposition, Gideon Epstein agreed with Ramsey attorney James Rawls' characterization of Cunningham's findings: "he cannot identify, nor eliminate Patsy Ramsey as the author of the ransom note..." and "he has spent 20 hours examining the samples and documents and found that there were no significant individual characteristics, but much significant difference between Patsy's writing and the note"

Howard C. Rile, Jr. (Hired by the Ramseys)
Rile Findings. "Howard Rile concluded that Mrs. Ramsey was between "probably not" and "elimination," on a scale of whether she wrote the Ransom Note.

Larry Ziegler
" It was determined and is still determined by myself that Patsy Ramsey is the writer of the ransom note."

Cina Wong
Question by Lin Wood: "Well, do you feel that you have eliminated all reasonable doubt about whether Patsy Ramsey wrote the ransom note?
Answer by Cina Wong: In this case, I highly believe she wrote the note.
Q. And please answer my question.
A. I am sorry.
Q. Do you feel that you have eliminated all reasonable doubt?
A. With the people, the possibilities of who could be involved in this case with the three handwriting samples that were given to me and enormous -- the enormous similarities that Patsy Ramsey's handwriting and the note, yes, I believe she is the writer.

Richard Dusak
His study concluded that there was no evidence that Patsy wrote the note.

Gideon Epstein
from his deposition
Q. What is your degree of certainty yourself as you sit here today that Patsy Ramsey wrote the note?
A. I am absolutely certain that she wrote the note.


Wolf vs Ramsey was flawed in the Ramseys favour. Above are the opinions of all the examiners I could find. If you are going to accept the opinions of experts hired by the suspects in a murder case, go ahead. But we know that the Ramsey's cherry picked people to perform lie detecter tests, and it still took several attempts for them to pass. The fact that their two paid experts give the lowest likelihood that Patsy authored the note is not a coincidence. Remove those two from the equation and only Richard Dusak remains as a doubter that Patsy wrote the note.
 
Chester A. Ubowski
Some of Ubowski's preliminary findings were revealed in the affidavit used as justification for the Charlevoix search warrant. According to affiant Jane Harmer, Ubowski provided Detective Linda Arndt the following information: "The analysis of the handwriting samples obtained from Patsy Ramsey showed "indications" which suggest that Patsy Ramsey may have written the reported ransom note." Later in the affidavit, Harmer further states "He determined that there is evidence which indicates the ransom note may have been written by Patricia Ramsey but "the evidence falls short of that necessary to support a definite conclusion." Ubowski "is said to have found 24 of 26 letters in the ransom note which matched exemplars from Patsy Ramsey"

Leonard Speckin
concluded that differences between the writing of Mrs. Ramsey's handwriting and the author of the Ransom Note prevented him from identifying Mrs. Ramsey as the author of the Ransom Note, but he was unable to eliminate her. "When I compare the handwriting habits of Patsy Ramsey with those in the questioned ransom note, there exists agreement to the extent that some of her individual letter formations and letter combinations do appear in the ransom note." (Epstein Deposition (p. 138:9-14) "When this agreement is weighed against the number, type and consistency of the differences present, I am unable to identify Patsy Ramsey as the author of the questioned ransom note with any degree of certainty. I am, however, unable to eliminate her as the author." However, Speckin reportedly was ready to testify that "there was only an infinitesimal chance that some random intruder would have handwriting characteristics so remarkably similar to those of a parent sleeping upstairs."

Edwin F. Alford, Jr.
Edwin Alford, a private forensic document examiner, states the evidence fell short of that needed to support a conclusion that Mrs. Ramsey wrote the note.

Lloyd Cunningham (Hired by the Ramseys)
Lloyd Cunningham, a private forensic document examiner hired by defendants, concluded that there were no significant similar individual characteristics shared by the handwriting of Mrs. Ramsey and the author of the Ransom Note, but there were many significant differences between the handwritings. In his Wolf v. Ramsey deposition, Gideon Epstein agreed with Ramsey attorney James Rawls' characterization of Cunningham's findings: "he cannot identify, nor eliminate Patsy Ramsey as the author of the ransom note..." and "he has spent 20 hours examining the samples and documents and found that there were no significant individual characteristics, but much significant difference between Patsy's writing and the note"

Howard C. Rile, Jr. (Hired by the Ramseys)
Rile Findings. "Howard Rile concluded that Mrs. Ramsey was between "probably not" and "elimination," on a scale of whether she wrote the Ransom Note.

Larry Ziegler
" It was determined and is still determined by myself that Patsy Ramsey is the writer of the ransom note."

Cina Wong
Question by Lin Wood: "Well, do you feel that you have eliminated all reasonable doubt about whether Patsy Ramsey wrote the ransom note?
Answer by Cina Wong: In this case, I highly believe she wrote the note.
Q. And please answer my question.
A. I am sorry.
Q. Do you feel that you have eliminated all reasonable doubt?
A. With the people, the possibilities of who could be involved in this case with the three handwriting samples that were given to me and enormous -- the enormous similarities that Patsy Ramsey's handwriting and the note, yes, I believe she is the writer.

Richard Dusak
His study concluded that there was no evidence that Patsy wrote the note.

Gideon Epstein
from his deposition
Q. What is your degree of certainty yourself as you sit here today that Patsy Ramsey wrote the note?
A. I am absolutely certain that she wrote the note.


Wolf vs Ramsey was flawed in the Ramseys favour. Above are the opinions of all the examiners I could find. If you are going to accept the opinions of experts hired by the suspects in a murder case, go ahead. But we know that the Ramsey's cherry picked people to perform lie detecter tests, and it still took several attempts for them to pass. The fact that their two paid experts give the lowest likelihood that Patsy authored the note is not a coincidence. Remove those two from the equation and only Richard Dusak remains as a doubter that Patsy wrote the note.
Andreww

I think some of what you’ve written re: Ubowski is misleading and possibly incorrect. Specifically: Later in the affidavit, Harmer further states "He determined that there is evidence which indicates the ransom note may have been written by Patricia Ramsey but "the evidence falls short of that necessary to support a definite conclusion." Ubowski "is said to have found 24 of 26 letters in the ransom note which matched exemplars from Patsy Ramsey"

This reads as if the “24 of 26 letters” is stated in the search warrant/affidavit. I’ve been wrong before, but I don’t think that I am this time. This quote does not come from the search warrant/affidavit, nor does it come from any official source.

As it turns out there is reason to doubt that Ubowski ever made such a claim.

As some (sadly, not all) of us understand, interviewers are not permitted to lie or deceive during depositions (unlike the interviews conducted by Thomas, Smit, Levin, Kane, etc wherein deception is permitted). Of course, during a deposition one might lie anyway, but the consequences can be quite serious. In the Thomas deposition we learn – unless Wood is breaking the law and violating the code ethics, etc – that “...Mr. Ubowski and the CBI said they don't even make that kind of analysis with respect to the 24 out of the 26 letters of the alphabet...”

The “24 of 26 letters” originates with Thomas, who claimed that Wickman told Eller and Eller told him.
.

Out of your list of experts, Epstein and Wong were both rejected by the Court. YOU can disagree with the Court and that’s fine but it doesn’t change the fact that in this matter a court of law did not find these experts to be credible (Epstein didn’t find Wong credible, either!). This is something that should be taken into consideration when considering expert’s opinions.

Ziegler is forgotten, to me so I’ll pass on him. I tend to ignore the Ramsey expert’s. That leaves us the four BPD experts. None of the four BPD experts identified Mrs Ramsey and none of them were able to eliminate her. If you read the Thomas deposition it becomes clear that the majority of people tested could not be eliminated. This is the reason why Thomas was always careful to say that out of the 73 people whose handwriting had been compared, Mrs Ramseys was the only one KNOWN TO BE IN THE HOUSE who could not be eliminated.

The question should be, what significance do we attach to the fact that Mrs Ramsey could not be eliminated? It seems that RDi attach a great deal to this, but IDI – myself, anyway – attach very little. Most people could not be eliminated. No credible expert identified her.
Incidentally, I think that even if these experts had eliminated her one could still argue that Mrs Ramsey wrote the note (experts can be fooled) just as some argue, despite elimination, that Mr Ramsey wrote the note.
...

AK
 
Epstien and Wong were rejected, not for any incompetence on their part, but because of factors that were out of there control. Mainly that they did not use the original note or samples, only copies. As this was a civil suit and the criminal investigation was still active, I highly doubt that the BPD were anxious to turn over the original. Im Sure Lin Wood and crew worked overtime getting that decision. It doesn't change however what might have happened at a criminal trial as I'm sure the experts would be far more prepared to tackle Wood's objections.
 
Epstien and Wong were rejected, not for any incompetence on their part, but because of factors that were out of there control. Mainly that they did not use the original note or samples, only copies. As this was a civil suit and the criminal investigation was still active, I highly doubt that the BPD were anxious to turn over the original. Im Sure Lin Wood and crew worked overtime getting that decision. It doesn't change however what might have happened at a criminal trial as I'm sure the experts would be far more prepared to tackle Wood's objections.
No, Andreww, Epstein was rejected because he was not able to show how he came to his conclusions; and, Wong was rejected because – and, Epstein agreed – she was simply not qualified.

The fact that original documents were not available to Epstein or Wong was not a factor. Carnes: “The Court concludes that any reliability concerns stemming from Epstein's failure to consult the originals should go to the weight of his testimony, but should not bar its admission, completely.”
...

AK
 
So... it looks to me like it WASN'T the consensus that she was excluded as author. Looks like nearly all of them could NOT exclude her as the author.
 

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