Russia Attacks Ukraine - 23 Feb 2022 #7

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The Kyiv Independent on Twitter - 1 hr ago
NYT: US creates contingency plans in case Russia uses chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

The Kyiv Independent on Twitter
The team of national security officials, known as the Tiger Team, is also considering responses if Russia attacks convoys in NATO territories bringing weapons and aid to Ukraine, according to officials involved in the process.

The Kyiv Independent on Twitter
These contingencies will be central in an upcoming NATO meeting between the leaders of all member states on March 24.

The Kyiv Independent on Twitter
Pentagon: No signs Belarus preparing to invade Ukraine. Voice of America correspondent Carla Babb relayed the information on Twitter, citing an unnamed U.S. Department of Defense official.
 
MAR 24, 2022
Russia uses mobilized Donbas men as cannon fodder for war in Ukraine - Ukrainian intel | Euromaidan Press

Russia has started mass mobilization of men living in Russia-occupied part of Ukrainian Donbas, despite their lack of discipline and morale, for the war in Ukraine. According to these men, as Ukrainian Intelligence reports, Russian military command is exploiting them as so-called combat reconnaissance. The mobilized are sent to the line of collision to reveal the arrangement of firing positions of the Ukrainian army at the cost of their lives.

According to the mobilized men from occupied Donbas, a unit of 250-300 soldiers was sent to the Mykolaiv direction on 16 and 17 March. Their losses constituted 200 men. The survivors returned to Kherson oblast and refused to take part in combat activities.

Since Russia is pursuing the policy of denial of war victims among its military men, it deliberately conceals the number of the killed. According to Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, Russia-controlled authorities in occupied Luhansk city opened a point to hand over the bodies of the mibilized men from occupied Ukrainian areas in a shop “Kopiika” (translated as “coin”). Occupational police gives the bodies to the relatives together with the death certificate and burial permit, yet with no official explanation of the circumstances of death. No payments for the relatives of the men from occupied Donbas who fought and died in Ukraine are provided (even if they possess a Russian passport). At the same time, families of Russian fighters get 12 mln RUB (around 124,031 USD) payments upon their soldiers’ deaths.

[...]
 
NEXTA on Twitter - 4 hrs ago
The #UN Security Council did not adopt the draft Russian resolution on #Ukraine All members of the Security Council - except #Russia and #China - abstained. Russia's resolution was purely humanitarian in nature and did not provide for the issue of a ceasefire in Ukraine.

NEXTA on Twitter
Now in the #Kyiv region there are about 12 thousand #Russian soldiers This was stated by the adviser to the head of the presidential office Alexei Arestovich. “Of these, 3.000 are almost surrounded, another 4.000 are cut off and are in a very unpleasant place,” he said.

NEXTA on Twitter - 3 hrs ago
CNN: according to the Pentagon, the #Ukrainian military pushed back part of the #Russian forces from #Kyiv by 25 kilometers The Russian troops are 55 kilometers east of the center of Kyiv, which is 25-35 kilometers farther from where they were the day before.

NEXTA on Twitter - 2 hrs ago
Anonymous reports that they hacked data from the Central Bank of #Russia According to the report, in the next 48 hours the collective will publish more than 35,000 files of the bank, including those with secret contracts.

Euromaidan Press on Twitter - 1 hr ago
The bodies of the Russian military killed in the Sumy region in the first days of the invasion have not been taken away, Director at Sumy Oblast Military Administration. Decomposing human bodies may cause a great environmental threat. https://suspilne.media/220717-tila-rosijskih-vijskovih-aki-zaginuli-v-sumah-na-pocatku-vijni-dosi-ne-zabrali/
 
Is Shoigu ill? In hiding? ??

Questions have been raised about the whereabouts of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu following reports that he has not been seen in public for nearly two weeks, despite being in charge of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

On Tuesday, Dmitry Treschanin, a Russian journalist at independent outlet Mediazona, also noted that the last article about Shoigu to appear on Russian state news agency RIA was on March 11.

"Listen, the great PR minister Shoigu has been out of public space since March 11th. ELEVEN DAYS OF WAR, we do not have the head of the Ministry of Defense," Treschanin tweeted.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu Not Seen for 12 Days
 
SouthAussie said:
Is this why they won't let the people of Mariupol leave? And why they are starving and freezing them into submission? Maybe because Russia wants Mariupol, but it also wants the Mariupol people to run the docks and the metal plants?
Click to expand...

I am afraid that it may simply be that the Russian plan is to see whether the mass murder of enough Ukrainian civilians will get Ukraine to capitulate.
 
Russia-Ukraine war latest news: concern for trapped Chernihiv residents as Russians ‘bomb bridge’ – live | World news | The Guardian
1h ago 02:01

The risk of coup by Russia’s federal security service (FSB) against President Putin is growing every week that the war in Ukraine continues, a whistleblower at the heart of Russian intelligence has said.

The whistleblower claims that chaos and discontent have engulfed the security services after Russia’s botched invasion of Ukraine.

Letters written by an anonymous Russian intelligence analyst to Vladimir Osechkin, an exiled Russian activist and founder of the human rights group Gulagu.net, have since been published online.

Osechkin told The Times that the risk taken by intelligence agents in speaking out was a sign of their growing anger towards Putin and discontent from the effect that sanctions have had on FSB officers who will no longer be able to “go on holidays to their villas in Italy and take their kids to Disneyland Paris”.

Speaking from his home in France, where he has lived in exile since 2015, Osechkin told the newspaper:

For 20 years Putin created stability in Russia. FSB officers, policemen, state prosecutors — those people inside the system — were able to live good lives.

But now that has all gone. They recognise that this war is a catastrophe for the economy, for humanity. They don’t want to go back to the Soviet Union.

For every week and every month that this war continues, the possibility of a rebellion by those in the security services increases.”
 
This is curious.

https://www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60724509.amp?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw==#amp_tf=From %1$s&aoh=16480971943688&referrer=https://www.google.com&ampshare=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60724509

"A rabbi who helped Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich obtain his Portuguese citizenship has been told he cannot leave Portugal and must present himself to authorities when required.

Daniel Litvak was detained on Thursday as part of an investigation into how citizenship had been granted.

The naturalisation process of several Jewish people is being investigated.

On Friday, Mr Abramovich was sanctioned by the UK in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine."


The story itself is not surprising. (I think it started shortly before my trip to Portugal. Maybe, in 2019?) Portugal offered descendants of Sephardic Jews who centuries ago had been exiled from Portugal, due to Catholic purges, to return and restore Jewish communities.

The laws are strict, and I doubt that Mr. Abramovich fulfills all of them Portuguese Law: Sephardic descendants eligible to obtain Portuguese Citizenship - Sponsored Content | The Times of Israel
But, he is a citizen of Portugal, and now the whole world is angry with Russian oligarchs.
 
Last edited:
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces continue to go over to the defensive, conducting restricted and localized ground attacks that make little progress.
  • Ukrainian forces are conducting limited and successful counterattacks around Kyiv to disrupt Russian operations to encircle the city (which has now become extremely unlikely) and relieve the pressure on the capital.
  • The Battle of Mariupol continues as a block-by-block struggle with fierce Ukrainian resistance and limited Russian gains.
  • Russia is likely struggling to obtain fresh combat power from Syria and elsewhere rapidly.
DraftUkraineCoTMarch23%2C2022.png


Russian efforts to bring Syrian forces into Ukraine may be encountering challenges. Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) reports that a Russian commander in Syria met with the commander of the Syrian Arab Army’s 8th Brigade to request a list of Syrian personnel ready to fight in Ukraine, but that the Syrian commander promised only to respond after consulting with his colleagues.
Russian mobilization efforts are likely becoming urgent given Russian losses in the war. The Wall Street Journal cites an unnamed NATO official claiming that Russia has lost as many as 40,000 troops killed, wounded, or missing of the roughly 190,000 deployed to invade Ukraine.
Russian forces are increasingly preparing for protracted defensive operations in various parts of the theater. Numerous reports and satellite images of Russian troops digging defensive positions and laying mines suggest that they have gone over to the defensive and do not anticipate conducting renewed large-scale offensive operations in the near future in a number of locations across Ukraine.

We do not report in detail on the deliberate Russian targeting of civilian infrastructure and attacks on unarmed civilians, which are war crimes, because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Russian forces are engaged in four primary efforts at this time:

  • Main effort—Kyiv (comprised of three subordinate supporting efforts);
  • Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv;
    • Supporting effort 1a—Luhansk Oblast;
  • Supporting effort 2—Mariupol and Donetsk Oblast; and
  • Supporting effort 3—Kherson and advances northward and westward.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 23 that Russian forces attempted to advance on Teterivsk, roughly 70 kilometers northwest of Kyiv, but were repelled. A local Ukrainian government social media report supports that assessment.

Kyiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20March%2023%2C%202022.png


Immediate items to watch

  • Russian forces will likely capture Mariupol or force the city to capitulate within the coming weeks.
  • Russia will expand its air, missile, and artillery bombardments of Ukrainian cities.
  • Ukrainian officials suggest that Ukrainian forces may launch a larger counterattack in western Kyiv Oblast in the coming days.
  • The continued involvement of the Black Sea Fleet in the Battle of Mariupol reduces the likelihood of an amphibious landing near Odesa, Russian naval shelling of Odesa in recent days notwithstanding.
 
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