Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #2

[Voluspa]

No mention of a previous partner or husband AFAIA. But the big age gap makes me ? It, and I saw on this page the daughter who spoke on the tv has a different surname. So quite possibly.
Or his previous partner /wife?

The eldest daughter Jess who spoke in the presser has the same surname.

'We miss you': Police remain hopeful in search for Sam Murphy

'People just don't vanish into thin air.'

www.thecourier.com.au

 

[PolyDot]

Does anyone know where she was the previous night? At their home or out somewhere? SM and MM together or with kids or

No.
She is a victim IMO.

I have certainly wondered what happened the night before she disappeared… and agree with you if indeed ‘something’ did happen that night - she would be the victim of that not him- after all she is the one missing not him

 

[TootsieFootsie]

MSN

Family of missing Ballarat mum Samantha Murphy break their silence on what they think happened to her - and the 'clue' that baffles them the most - 12 days after she vanished​

 

[DK007]

Hi Minaka I agree I can’t see the harm in releasing it but I suspect it’s withheld to stop us sleuthers and the press speculating more than necessary. If all it shows is SM waking up her driveway what does it achieve for the Police by releasing it? I take their word that that’s what it shows, that is all we can do….

It occurred to me they would also have footage of SM picking up dog poop which we hopefully never see either.

It’s a “need to know” approach by our Police and aside from fueling our curiosity the Police must think there is no value in sharing it just for us and the press to comment on.

The video also represents proof of life

 

[jbennett]

I think what matters more about the water is not if or if not she took any with her but what would her normal habits be in regards to taking water when she was going for a run.
We all have our own preferences but my hinky meter starts going off when it was something out of her norm.

 

[jjleroche]

Hi Minaka I agree I can’t see the harm in releasing it but I suspect it’s withheld to stop us sleuthers and the press speculating more than necessary. If all it shows is SM waking up her driveway what does it achieve for the Police by releasing it? I take their word that that’s what it shows, that is all we can do….

It occurred to me they would also have footage of SM picking up dog poop which we hopefully never see either.

It’s a “need to know” approach by our Police and aside from fueling our curiosity the Police must think there is no value in sharing it just for us and the press to comment on.

I agree - it's a "need to know" approach by investigators. it would be imprudent for investigators to release information if there is no value in doing so. To do so may jeopardise the investigation. JMO

 

[Littleguy7]

I think she would have left the property onto the Lane, not Eureka Street. So she would have turned left or right onto the Lane. Turing left would mean walking into bush land at the end of the Lane (if there is access to do so). Turning right would take her to Eureka street. From there should would have had to turn left or right again.

This is the point that Toowong is making- it can be ruled out that she turned left onto Eureka because if the camera picked up the other runner then it would have picked up SM as well. Which leaves left on Blair or right onto Eureka. Given her usual route is to Woowookarung it seems more likely she went right onto Eureka and then potentially left onto Cathie.

MOO

 

[OptimusLime]

https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/news/samantha-murphy-family-members-of-missing-mum-believe-foul-play-was-involved-in-disappearance/news-story/f02ae1b5afb27699b0f4be04206343d4

Family weighing in, I thought this was interesting, aunty and uncle. They said she never switches her phone off.

 

[Toowong(s)]

I think she would have left the property onto the Lane, not Eureka Street. So she would have turned left or right onto the Lane. Turing left would mean walking into bush land at the end of the Lane (if there is access to do so). Turning right would take her to Eureka street. From there should would have had to turn left or right again.

I have delved deeper and now see what you mean BGirl88, thanks for the tip. SMs driveway exists to a side lane not the main road. Crikey WS draws you in…

So SM may have turned north up the lane, which looks like it leads to a couple more houses that use the lane for acces, then after a few hundred meters ends at a wooded area. No way out to the north, east or west for cars (unless they went through private property, paddocks, gates?). Cars would have to turn around (using people’s driveways to do an 3 point turn, as it looks tight - some might have CCTV) and head back south to the main road. Maybe there is a walking track into the small wooded area for dog walkers etc. But it doesn’t look like much else in that direction other than private property, even if you get through the small wood. It looks like a maze of small lanes etc. I’m not sure I’d head that way if I wanted to punch out a good 10-14km run.

Also not a good spot for an abductor to hide down the lane, as it’s a bit of a trap, the only way out is back past SMs house which seems to have a good view of the street.

So I think good chance if heading off for a run that SM turned south from her driveway, and then on to Eureka St. From there it’s either east or west on Eureka St. I’m ruling East out because of the other jogger on CCTV, which was on Eureka St, I think it was a the dog kennel / cattery? That camera captured the other jogger but not SM, so fairly safe to say SM did not head that way.

If it were me I’d head west onto Eureka then south onto Boundary Rd via Cathie which looks like a good long hit out for a runner through the woods. When I walk/run I don’t like too many twists and turns into different streets, it’s good to concentrate on one long route at least for a while at a time. I also have worked out set 5km and 7km routes as I’m keen to know what distance and roughy how long especially if I have to be back by a certain time. I think there’s a good chance SM had set 10km, 14km, 20km routes she followed and Boundary Rd looks like the backbone of a good running route.

So my conclusion if SM met with foul play it was either on a small stretch of Eureka St (west) or on the short lane Cathie or the long running track of Boundary. Perhaps hit accidentally by a stolen car crossing Eureka. Or running up Cathie or Boundary. Cathie or Boundary would be a good spot for an abductor that knows SMs routine routes to wait with a car, multiple ways to high tail out from there.

Surely though Police forensics would be all over it looking for tire tracks and other evidence. Those tracks would be closed, a crime scene. I haven’t seen any evidence of heavy forensics work in the media? So odd.

I see now MM is a car collector. Explains all the new sheds! There is an epidemic of luxury car theft going on in and around Melbourne by some pretty despicable people that have zero scruples. Murdered a young doctor recently who chased his Mercedes down the street and was stabbed in cold blood. They brazenly break in or walk into homes, take keys, take cars, don’t care about CCTV or security systems and will violently attack anyone who gets in their way.

So potentially as SM headed off for the run she discovered someone stealing one of MMs cars, or a neighbour’s car, and violence resulted, and they have hidden the evidence. No reports of a car being stolen though, or anything to suggest this theory, other than the reference to MMs car collection by SMs uncle just now. So again, odd.

 

[Toowong(s)]

This is the point that Toowong is making- it can be ruled out that she turned left onto Eureka because if the camera picked up the other runner then it would have picked up SM as well. Which leaves left on Blair or right onto Eureka. Given her usual route is to Woowookarung it seems more likely she went right onto Eureka and then potentially left onto Cathie.

MOO

Yes thanks for clarifying Littleguy, that is what I have concluded, I’m thinking SM headed to Cathie aiming for a good run along Boundary.

 

[MrsWattle]

This is the point that Toowong is making- it can be ruled out that she turned left onto Eureka because if the camera picked up the other runner then it would have picked up SM as well. Which leaves left on Blair or right onto Eureka. Given her usual route is to Woowookarung it seems more likely she went right onto Eureka and then potentially left onto Cathie.

MOO

Down driveway, right onto Blair and right onto Eureka street then left down Cathie Street and immediately into a unpopulated non residential park. Doubt there would be cctv cameras or cars in the park.
Phone reception seems good in most areas of Ballarat.
I thought it was interesting the last phone ping near the Triple Zero call centre for Victoria. Lots of people would be working there. Also busy area at the Federal University.

 

[Howl]

PS - loved your posts about the dams v pond - made me chuckle x

Also stock tanks = artificial reservoirs in some parts of Texas (U.S.):

Texas Primer: The Stock Tank​

 

[JLZ]

I’m ruling East out because of the other jogger on CCTV, which was on Eureka St, I think it was a the dog kennel / cattery? That camera captured the other jogger but not SM, so fairly safe to say SM did not head that way.

(snipped)
I query whether CCTV through the cattery gates would have picked up even a figure if Samantha had passed on the other side of the road.

 

[Toowong(s)]

Down driveway, right onto Blair and right onto Eureka street then left down Cathie Street and immediately into a unpopulated non residential park. Doubt there would be cctv cameras or cars in the park.
Phone reception seems good in most areas of Ballarat.
I thought it was interesting the last phone ping near the Triple Zero call centre for Victoria. Lots of people would be working there. Also busy area at the Federal University.

It looks like there is a myriad of tracks and paths in the park/forest. I’d run up Boandary to the scenic lookout, which looks about 3.5km. And then then I’d head back home, that would be as far as I could go, I’d be knackered but it would have been a good 7km round trip for me, not far enough for SM. I’m going with the 10km theory mentioned by the uncle in the press overnight so SM would have needed to stretch another 1.5km or so beyond the lookout before turning back home, to make it a 10km out and back run. Of course SM could have gone in all manner of other directions, and also done a big circuit run instead of and out & back run. Or perhaps didn’t get far at all before meeting with foul play…

To have called off the search so abruptly I am concluding the police must have solid evidence SM left the forest (or never entered the forest) from the phone and/or watch data they have managed to access, and maybe other clues or evidence.

Given SM wasn’t seen at all that day after the 7am driveway footage I think it’s likely SM was intercepted early on. If it’s a stalker that has learned her routine I think they’d strike early, like Cathie St, where there are 4 directions to take off. I don’t think they would lie in wait at the 5km mark. And I’m confident there would have been other runners, mountain bike riders, dog walkers out in the forest trails, someone would have spotted her and spoken to the Daily Mail by now. And those trails, the whole park, would be closed as a possible crime scene to take tire track imprints, preserve any possible clues.

 

[Toowong(s)]

(snipped)
I query whether CCTV through the cattery gates would have picked up even a figure if Samantha had passed on the other side of the road.

Good call, perhaps the other jogger was close enough to set off the camera (if it’s motion activated) but SM went past on other side of road and did not trigger it. Definitely possible.

 

[borderline444]

then you would know what exercising for at least an hour without water could do to someone.

Heatstroke is real.

 

[JLZ]

Good call, perhaps the other jogger was close enough to set off the camera (if it’s motion activated) but SM went past on other side of road and did not trigger it. Definitely possible.

There's that, but my main point is image quality--overexposure and improper correction. Witness what almost looks like a horse across the road and is really some bushiness with a tree trunk behind it. The best version of the picture I've seen is here: CCTV no longer believed to show missing mother Samantha Murphy

 

[Howl]

I checked WeatherUnderground almanac for Feb 4, the day SM went missing. The low overnight was 55 degrees F/13 degrees C; it doesn't get up to 90 degrees F until 3 pm. At the start of her run at 7 am, the temps would only have been in the high 50s, low 60s F, so pleasantly cool.

If there was a water fountain/drinking fountain on SM's planned route, she'd not have needed to carry water.

 

[Kemug]

No.
She is a victim IMO.

Oh yes, I agree that she is a victim. But someone in a blind rage may be incapable of thinking straight, like many who suicide. So just an idea.

 

[Dotta]

Oh yes, I agree that she is a victim. But someone in a blind rage may be incapable of thinking straight, like many who suicide. So just an idea.

You mean
"Hell hath no fury like a woman's" ???