Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #4

[Warshawski]

Imo Sam didn’t stumble upon a mine shaft & fall in. I think she was an intelligent woman who knew the area & stuck to the tracks. Looking at the area shown on UI last night, I thought it was quite beautiful & I could imagine that walkers / joggers / runners would find it quite therapeutic to traverse the area.

So what could have happened to her ?

Police have ruled out accidental injury, broken leg, snake bite etc, or a medical event, and seem to have also ruled out her own planned ‘disappearance’,

Which imo leaves ‘foul play’ :
* a random attack by some violent or sexual predator who happened to come across her at Mt Clear & acted on the spur of the moment
This I’ve discounted as it’s all too ‘clean’. Imo a random attack where Sam would’ve fought back, would leave traces of a struggle, maybe broken brush, possibly threads of clothes, maybe jewellery ( did she have earrings in ), maybe blood . The dogs I think will have picked up something ( surely dogs have been used there now they’re pinpointing it )

* a planned attack
Sadly I think that’s what it’s been. A very well thought out & planned offence, where she may not have had much opportunity at all to try to escape. I think she was quickly removed from the area, in what state I can’t begin to guess. Her phone is probably in water somewhere, so it’s useless, and they may’ve tossed the watch believing it useless without a working phone - police may have her watch, but irrespective it seems they’ve got all the tracking data Up To that Point .

* by who - and of course this is the sticking point.
The rumoured family DVO is not something I can postulate over because I have no details. IF the DVO was taken out by Sam / her family, it will surely have been well investigated by Police, so I’ll park that.

Police have said that MM is not a suspect ‘at this stage’.

I think it’s a result of something connected to the business, reneged on an agreement, cash jobs, upset competitors, blown someone’s cover, threatened to blow someone’s cover.
Samantha was probably easier to get at than Mick, and it sends a clear message.

 

[ZombieKittie]

Thanks ZombieK do you have a link for that?

No sorry I don't that was 3 threads ago I wouldn't even begin to know where to look and as per my last comment I apparently can't be trusted with google lol

 

[SouthAussie]

Imo Sam didn’t stumble upon a mine shaft & fall in. I think she was an intelligent woman who knew the area & stuck to the tracks. Looking at the area shown on UI last night, I thought it was quite beautiful & I could imagine that walkers / joggers / runners would find it quite therapeutic to traverse the area.

So what could have happened to her ?

Police have ruled out accidental injury, broken leg, snake bite etc, or a medical event, and seem to have also ruled out her own planned ‘disappearance’,

Which imo leaves ‘foul play’ :
* a random attack by some violent or sexual predator who happened to come across her at Mt Clear & acted on the spur of the moment
This I’ve discounted as it’s all too ‘clean’. Imo a random attack where Sam would’ve fought back, would leave traces of a struggle, maybe broken brush, possibly threads of clothes, maybe jewellery ( did she have earrings in ), maybe blood . The dogs I think will have picked up something ( surely dogs have been used there now they’re pinpointing it )

* a planned attack
Sadly I think that’s what it’s been. A very well thought out & planned offence, where she may not have had much opportunity at all to try to escape. I think she was quickly removed from the area, in what state I can’t begin to guess. Her phone is probably in water somewhere, so it’s useless, and they may’ve tossed the watch believing it useless without a working phone - police may have her watch, but irrespective it seems they’ve got all the tracking data Up To that Point .

* by who - and of course this is the sticking point.
The rumoured family DVO is not something I can postulate over because I have no details. IF the DVO was taken out by Sam / her family, it will surely have been well investigated by Police, so I’ll park that.

Police have said that MM is not a suspect ‘at this stage’.

I think it’s a result of something connected to the business, reneged on an agreement, cash jobs, upset competitors, blown someone’s cover, threatened to blow someone’s cover.
Samantha was probably easier to get at than Mick, and it sends a clear message.

It could have been an act by a random attacker, and still have been planned. I don't believe the two are mutually exclusive.

As in, a random person knew he was going to attack someone that morning. Sam happened to be the unlucky one.

(I say "he" because of the presumption that this is some kind of male violence, but I guess there are scenarios where it could be violence by another female.)

imo

 

[Toowong(s)]

have police actually said there was definately a damaged car theyre looking for or just that might be another possible scenario of what might have happened?

This is the full quote from the presser:

“I encourage anyone who does have information that could be relevant to this investigation – whether that’s a person or vehicle seen in the area on that day, something unusual such as a damaged vehicle or property – to please come forward and speak to police or provide the information via Crime Stoppers,” he said

It’s a pretty wide reaching, final catch all appeal at the end of the presser. Perhaps we’re reading too much into it. I feel the damaged vehicle has had a good run on WS now - lots of ideas thrashed out, although we just discussed cars, not motorbikes, quad bikes, mountain bikes? And what about damaged property, what could that mean? Fences? Broken CCTV? A drone?

Quote extract taken from below link:

Samantha Murphy: police ‘very doubtful’ missing Ballarat woman still alive amid suspicion ‘one or more parties’ involved | Victoria | The Guardian

New mobile data leads police to comb Mount Clear area for clues nearly three weeks after 51-year-old was last seen

amp.theguardian.com

 

[Mandala]

Does anyone think this could be linked to the same person who attacked another female runner on those trails?

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Detective Willy, no offence taken at all as I’m still very open minded about this, all options are on the whiteboard.

I am an engineer by profession and at university was taught how to workshop ideas, by a passionate much loved lecturer who used to say to us “never rule anything out or shut down another students idea, get it all up on the white board without any judgement whatsoever and then develop each idea until the best solution presents itself”.

I’ve tried to live by that advice ever since and I’m applying it here.

I’m interested in your thinking and theories. Your comment “IMO he would have left some evidence unless he was an experienced serial killer” got me thinking…. Some thoughts:

- maybe police have evidence we are not aware of, but not enough to convict without a body - so perhaps the killer was not as clinical as it might seem?
- if police really have no evidence at all then it seems it was indeed an expert job. Presumably not done directly by someone close to SM as they don’t seem like a family that hangs out with serial killers IMO.
- is serial killer actually on the table here? I’ve just seen SouthAussie’s post, need to look into that angle. Go crows?

- is it a given that there will be warnings if there’s a killer out there? I’ve read elsewhere that this is now considered victim blaming by some. Ie saying “don’t go jogging alone in the forest anymore” is putting the onus/blame on victims rather than the perp. Not sure how I feel about that personally I think if a hazard is present you should give a warning, but it’s a sensitive area for many.

Nice post.
I love it when folks quote or reference special teachers or mentors who have influenced their thinking.
I have none of those, actually.
But appreciate hearing about others.


a??? go crows ????

 

[nhmemorymaker]

You're not the only one. I had actually forgotten about this case but as soon as I saw the photo I remembered it was in Black Hill.

"2022-A convicted serial rapist is back in court fighting for his right to call 1800 sex lines from his jail cell. (!!!)

Anthony James Pitt was found guilty of kidnapping and brutally raping a number of teenage girls between 1987 and 1998 and has served the past 24 years behind bars."

omg.

 

[Toowong(s)]

Imo Sam didn’t stumble upon a mine shaft & fall in. I think she was an intelligent woman who knew the area & stuck to the tracks. Looking at the area shown on UI last night, I thought it was quite beautiful & I could imagine that walkers / joggers / runners would find it quite therapeutic to traverse the area.

So what could have happened to her ?

Police have ruled out accidental injury, broken leg, snake bite etc, or a medical event, and seem to have also ruled out her own planned ‘disappearance’,

Which imo leaves ‘foul play’ :
* a random attack by some violent or sexual predator who happened to come across her at Mt Clear & acted on the spur of the moment
This I’ve discounted as it’s all too ‘clean’. Imo a random attack where Sam would’ve fought back, would leave traces of a struggle, maybe broken brush, possibly threads of clothes, maybe jewellery ( did she have earrings in ), maybe blood . The dogs I think will have picked up something ( surely dogs have been used there now they’re pinpointing it )

* a planned attack
Sadly I think that’s what it’s been. A very well thought out & planned offence, where she may not have had much opportunity at all to try to escape. I think she was quickly removed from the area, in what state I can’t begin to guess. Her phone is probably in water somewhere, so it’s useless, and they may’ve tossed the watch believing it useless without a working phone - police may have her watch, but irrespective it seems they’ve got all the tracking data Up To that Point .

* by who - and of course this is the sticking point.
The rumoured family DVO is not something I can postulate over because I have no details. IF the DVO was taken out by Sam / her family, it will surely have been well investigated by Police, so I’ll park that.

Police have said that MM is not a suspect ‘at this stage’.

I think it’s a result of something connected to the business, reneged on an agreement, cash jobs, upset competitors, blown someone’s cover, threatened to blow someone’s cover.
Samantha was probably easier to get at than Mick, and it sends a clear message.

IMO I can’t fathom why on the one hand:

- it’s all too clean for a violent calculating predator with long wrap sheet to have pulled this off, as Sam would fight tooth and nail against a random attacker, the attacker would be sloppy, not plan it properly, and there would be too many clues.

While on the other hand :

- someone close to SM, has somehow planned and pulled off the perfect murder, on a lazy family Sunday morning, in between breakfast and brunch, with the kids in the house, and SM just gave up and didn’t fight back (like she would if it was predator) so there are no clues, and no evidence for police to conduct a dawn raid (yet).

Not singling you out Warshawski I appreciate the well laid out synopsis, it’s a good one and you may well be right. Others have also posted similar conclusions to quickly rule out random predator, which I just find conflicting IMO, so wanted to throw it open for debate.

From all I’ve read about SMs family and friends, the respect MM and the wider family are held in the community, the timeline we’re working with, the high regard the business is held in, vs the history of random violence in Ballarat, IMO I am much more inclined to believe a random predator in this case.

 

[Lukey2121]

Does anyone think this could be linked to the same person who attacked another female runner on those trails?

It was great to hear Sissy’s brave retelling of her incident on under investigation last night.

IMO, if we believe that SM’s digital profile has gone blank rapidly, then this MO doesn’t match the attack of Sissy Austin’s and therefore most likely not the same attacker.
Sissy’s attacker seemed to be affected by mental health issues and showed no interest in her mobile phone or Apple Watch.

 

[Curiousobserver]

I am not sure how police could rule out anything at this point. Other than she is not where she is expected to be, and that her phone data suggests she was jogging along a reasonable route, there seems to be very little evidence of where she might be now or what may have happened to her.

Missing people are very frequently found in areas that were searched multiple times even when that search is conducted by trained personnel and dogs. There is an entire thread on this site devoted to instances where the missing were located in an area search multiple times. Therefore, I wouldn't rule out that she is not lying along that trail somewhere, which means she may have been a victim of a crime, or an accident, or a snake bite, or any number of dangerous animals including people.

Phone data frequently cuts out and many of my runs have large sections of the trail where no GPS was captured on my phone or watch. Most days its good, some days its terrible. That loss of signal some are reporting at the 7km mark could be misreported, and could also be a software glitch on her phone that caused GPS to drop. She may have made it much further.

MOO this will turn out to be 1 of 3 things: accidental (least likely), a stranger attack (most likely), or a close family member (next most likely).

 

[Cartie]

If they think something happened at her half way mark, where she would turn around and come back it interested.
If I was running or walking and told someone I would say I'm running to point B (wherever that is) and back, so if that's the case IMO it's someone she talked to about her route for that day.

 

[carbuff]

Let's not forget tourists.

Somebody wrote
(was it you??)
that the town is visited by over 2 million people every year.

Some are still tempted by gold mines.

JMO

Yes, this is true. We were tourists in Melbourne just last month, took a wine tour into an area not that far from Ballarat, and the bus driver brought us back via a western route to avoid Australian Open traffic. I remember seeing the sign for the turn to Ballarat. The driver/tour guide was very knowledgeable about raising grapes, making wine, and the area's hospitality businesses in general, but nobody was asking much about that. They mostly wanted to know about the gold rush and whether there was still gold in the mines and do they still allow prospecting.

 

[Toowong(s)]

I am not sure how police could rule out anything at this point. Other than she is not where she is expected to be, and that her phone data suggests she was jogging along a reasonable route, there seems to be very little evidence of where she might be now or what may have happened to her.

Missing people are very frequently found in areas that were searched multiple times even when that search is conducted by trained personnel and dogs. There is an entire thread on this site devoted to instances where the missing were located in an area search multiple times. Therefore, I wouldn't rule out that she is not lying along that trail somewhere, which means she may have been a victim of a crime, or an accident, or a snake bite, or any number of dangerous animals including people.

Phone data frequently cuts out and many of my runs have large sections of the trail where no GPS was captured on my phone or watch. Most days its good, some days its terrible. That loss of signal some are reporting at the 7km mark could be misreported, and could also be a software glitch on her phone that caused GPS to drop. She may have made it much further.

MOO this will turn out to be 1 of 3 things: accidental (least likely), a stranger attack (most likely), or a close family member (next most likely).

Nicely summarised Curiousobserver.

That thread you mention sounds very interesting, I will add to the reading list.

You have jogged my memory on one of Sissy’s contributions to the panel discussion on UI, was that she said there is excellent phone reception all through the area. She runs there and she’s helped in the searches for SM, and she said at no point during searching did her or other searchers phone’s drop out to zero bars of reception (she called it SOS mode). I was surprised to hear this.

Notwithstanding, as you say phones glitch all the time, for all sorts of random reasons.

I still wonder about snake bite, I once stopped to admire a brown snake crossing a path, and was watching mesmerised, when I realised a jogger running up behind me, headphones in, in the “zone”, was on a collision course with it and oblivious due to a shadow on the path. I yelled “snake, watch out!” but he was totally oblivious still and it was all happening too quickly, so without really thinking I pushed him hard on the arm so he stumbled to the side, missing it. At first he thought I was attacking him then he saw the snake, spooked by the commotion scurrying into the long grass, and thanked me profusely.

I believe you can experience strong hallucinations when bitten, if not treated immediately, and can get very trippy and disoriented. Maybe not act like you’ve been told to, maybe forget about your phone in the panic, like Sissy did after her attack?

I’ve also heard it’s possible you don’t always know you’ve been bitten straight away (if you don’t see the snake, perhaps brush past a bush and it’s in the foliage). So potential to get bitten, continue running, experience hallucination, stumble off course and fall down a deep mine shaft, phone and all. Not the most likely scenario at all, a triple down on extraordinarily bad luck, but somewhat plausible.

IMO.

https://www.news.com.au/technology/science/human-body/doctor-whos-had-26-snakebites-has-endured-pain-vomit-and-hallucinations/news-story/2c697764d9dc02377fdab9fbd3480aff?amp

 

[Curiousobserver]

Nicely summarised Curiousobserver.

That thread you mention sounds very interesting, I will add to the reading list.

Remains Found in Area After LE/SAR Searches

@bombardier compiled an excellent starter list of MP cases that ended with the person's remains found in/near a location that had already been searched (some multiple times) by LE/SAR. Other WS members added a few cases to the list as well. I and others thought it would be useful to start a...

www.websleuths.com

 

[Dotta]

What really makes me "Hmmm..."
is that Police suggest multiple (more than one) pings in the area Samantha vanished.

That, I suppose, negates a lone random attacker.

Police seem to believe there are more than one perps.

But, of course, it might still be random.

On the other hand,
the nature of her Business or the fact that attack happened day after she publicly talked about her run,
suggests the crime might be premeditated.

JMO

 

[jjleroche]

Imo Sam didn’t stumble upon a mine shaft & fall in. I think she was an intelligent woman who knew the area & stuck to the tracks. Looking at the area shown on UI last night, I thought it was quite beautiful & I could imagine that walkers / joggers / runners would find it quite therapeutic to traverse the area.

So what could have happened to her ?

Police have ruled out accidental injury, broken leg, snake bite etc, or a medical event, and seem to have also ruled out her own planned ‘disappearance’,

Which imo leaves ‘foul play’ :
* a random attack by some violent or sexual predator who happened to come across her at Mt Clear & acted on the spur of the moment
This I’ve discounted as it’s all too ‘clean’. Imo a random attack where Sam would’ve fought back, would leave traces of a struggle, maybe broken brush, possibly threads of clothes, maybe jewellery ( did she have earrings in ), maybe blood . The dogs I think will have picked up something ( surely dogs have been used there now they’re pinpointing it )

* a planned attack
Sadly I think that’s what it’s been. A very well thought out & planned offence, where she may not have had much opportunity at all to try to escape. I think she was quickly removed from the area, in what state I can’t begin to guess. Her phone is probably in water somewhere, so it’s useless, and they may’ve tossed the watch believing it useless without a working phone - police may have her watch, but irrespective it seems they’ve got all the tracking data Up To that Point .

* by who - and of course this is the sticking point.
The rumoured family DVO is not something I can postulate over because I have no details. IF the DVO was taken out by Sam / her family, it will surely have been well investigated by Police, so I’ll park that.

Police have said that MM is not a suspect ‘at this stage’.

I think it’s a result of something connected to the business, reneged on an agreement, cash jobs, upset competitors, blown someone’s cover, threatened to blow someone’s cover.
Samantha was probably easier to get at than Mick, and it sends a clear message.

I agree completely.

 

[ThePrince]

What really makes me "Hmmm..."
is that Police suggest multiple (more than one) pings in the area Samantha vanished.

That, I suppose, negates a lone random attacker.

Police seem to believe there are more than one perps.

But, of course, it might still be random.

On the other hand,
the nature of her Business or the fact that attack happened day after she publicly talked about her run,
suggests the crime might be premeditated.

JMO

Yes, premeditation/random - Look up "Gavin Field rape bag", another Ballarat case where he attacked random women (carrying a rape bag of cable ties, pillow cases etc), one victim had been unfortunate enough to serve him in a shop a couple of days prior. Others had males home who scared him off.

 

[Deleted member 293720]

Imo Sam didn’t stumble upon a mine shaft & fall in. I think she was an intelligent woman who knew the area & stuck to the tracks. Looking at the area shown on UI last night, I thought it was quite beautiful & I could imagine that walkers / joggers / runners would find it quite therapeutic to traverse the area.

So what could have happened to her ?

Police have ruled out accidental injury, broken leg, snake bite etc, or a medical event, and seem to have also ruled out her own planned ‘disappearance’,

Which imo leaves ‘foul play’ :
* a random attack by some violent or sexual predator who happened to come across her at Mt Clear & acted on the spur of the moment
This I’ve discounted as it’s all too ‘clean’. Imo a random attack where Sam would’ve fought back, would leave traces of a struggle, maybe broken brush, possibly threads of clothes, maybe jewellery ( did she have earrings in ), maybe blood . The dogs I think will have picked up something ( surely dogs have been used there now they’re pinpointing it )

* a planned attack
Sadly I think that’s what it’s been. A very well thought out & planned offence, where she may not have had much opportunity at all to try to escape. I think she was quickly removed from the area, in what state I can’t begin to guess. Her phone is probably in water somewhere, so it’s useless, and they may’ve tossed the watch believing it useless without a working phone - police may have her watch, but irrespective it seems they’ve got all the tracking data Up To that Point .

* by who - and of course this is the sticking point.
The rumoured family DVO is not something I can postulate over because I have no details. IF the DVO was taken out by Sam / her family, it will surely have been well investigated by Police, so I’ll park that.

Police have said that MM is not a suspect ‘at this stage’.

I think it’s a result of something connected to the business, reneged on an agreement, cash jobs, upset competitors, blown someone’s cover, threatened to blow someone’s cover.
Samantha was probably easier to get at than Mick, and it sends a clear message.

Interesting the police have said MM is not a suspect at this stage, even if he was a suspect, the police won't say due to his kids living with him and family.

But he could have some involvement in organising
I don't think the attack was for MM himself, but for Sam
I do believe there is a motive, but It's hard to pinpoint which one. Business / Divorce
I think she has been ambushed by more than one person with a gun and made to get into the vehicle
The only way she would have been kept alive is for ransom, and we haven't heard of that
I think now she has been driven away and killed not long after that, the vehicle has either been involved in a small collision with a bush, fence while getting away quickly from there, or it was damaged beforehand
There could be a witness, who was walking there at the time
I am not sure if the vehicle has been repaired, seats removed, tyres changed, modified in some way
But CCTV at the business would show if that vehicle was driven in or out of the business/ and if there were unusual activity in the business that day and throughout the night
Or it's in a large backyard shed waiting for it to be transported somewhere else
There has been no reported car fires either

 

[ProfCluezo]

Imo Sam didn’t stumble upon a mine shaft & fall in. I think she was an intelligent woman who knew the area & stuck to the tracks. Looking at the area shown on UI last night, I thought it was quite beautiful & I could imagine that walkers / joggers / runners would find it quite therapeutic to traverse the area.

So what could have happened to her ?

Police have ruled out accidental injury, broken leg, snake bite etc, or a medical event, and seem to have also ruled out her own planned ‘disappearance’,

Which imo leaves ‘foul play’ :
* a random attack by some violent or sexual predator who happened to come across her at Mt Clear & acted on the spur of the moment
This I’ve discounted as it’s all too ‘clean’. Imo a random attack where Sam would’ve fought back, would leave traces of a struggle, maybe broken brush, possibly threads of clothes, maybe jewellery ( did she have earrings in ), maybe blood . The dogs I think will have picked up something ( surely dogs have been used there now they’re pinpointing it )

* a planned attack
Sadly I think that’s what it’s been. A very well thought out & planned offence, where she may not have had much opportunity at all to try to escape. I think she was quickly removed from the area, in what state I can’t begin to guess. Her phone is probably in water somewhere, so it’s useless, and they may’ve tossed the watch believing it useless without a working phone - police may have her watch, but irrespective it seems they’ve got all the tracking data Up To that Point .

* by who - and of course this is the sticking point.
The rumoured family DVO is not something I can postulate over because I have no details. IF the DVO was taken out by Sam / her family, it will surely have been well investigated by Police, so I’ll park that.

Police have said that MM is not a suspect ‘at this stage’.

I think it’s a result of something connected to the business, reneged on an agreement, cash jobs, upset competitors, blown someone’s cover, threatened to blow someone’s cover.
Samantha was probably easier to get at than Mick, and it sends a clear message.

Interestingly I have independently reached the exact same conclusions as you! . Thank you for being brave enough to post this Warshawski!

 

[kiwi50]

Interesting the police have said MM is not a suspect at this stage, even if he was a suspect, the police won't say due to his kids living with him and family.

But he could have some involvement in organising
I don't think the attack was for MM himself, but for Sam
I do believe there is a motive, but It's hard to pinpoint which one. Business / Divorce
I think she has been ambushed by more than one person with a gun and made to get into the vehicle
The only way she would have been kept alive is for ransom, and we haven't heard of that
I think now she has been driven away and killed not long after that, the vehicle has either been involved in a small collision with a bush, fence while getting away quickly from there, or it was damaged beforehand
There could be a witness, who was walking there at the time
I am not sure if the vehicle has been repaired, seats removed, tyres changed, modified in some way
But CCTV at the business would show if that vehicle was driven in or out of the business/ and if there were unusual activity in the business that day and throughout the night
Or it's in a large backyard shed waiting for it to be transported somewhere else
There has been no reported car fires either

This theory would work for me, would like to know more of the comings and goings from the house that morning.
I don’t think the police have much idea of the car involved.
Unless they find her body, Or the car, I think the case is stalled.
They must have all the data they are ever going to get from her phone and watch.