Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #8

[Deleted member 340727]

Fresh sign , new agent ( McGrath)
Previous sign was for PRD.
Home has been up for sale over 12 months now.

I noted this history of on and off sale when we had the address at hand. Usually a property has this chequered history if there is something wrong with it, but maybe there is a more purposeful angle regarding having a tennant for a reason: property prices have dramatically increased over the last 2-3 years in every state in Australia, however there could be another reason altogether? Examining the durations of length of time spent on the market then taken off appears very erratic to me, very erratic. Was there a moderator driving this? MOO

 

[Neet_Mc]

Police would have interviewed family and friends, for times PS was seen, on the Sunday.
This would limit time periods for SM being moved.
He could have moved her several times, even in the following days: perhaps further info required from family and friend, when PS had been seen.
I guess, interviews, CCTV, phone info, etc may be helpful, in trying to 'pin point' times, SM's body may have been moved.
Hope, we eventually hear, once SM's body is located.

Yes. The ~8 hour window on Sunday is a maximum. He returned to his employment on the Monday and I’m presuming he was there all week. This would reduce timeframe when he could return to move, or further conceal SM…in amongst the frenzy going on locally with her disappearance hitting media.
I’m tending to think her body, the biggest obstacle he had to dispose of, was done on the Sunday. I think the ‘trophies’ were maybe gradually destroyed and disposed of over coming days. This would account for the pinging of SM’s device later Sunday as it was in his possession. He may have wanted to research about disposal or further dismantle these trophies and destroy them before getting rid of whatever remained

 

[SouthAussie]

Yes. The ~8 hour window on Sunday is a maximum. He returned to his employment on the Monday and I’m presuming he was there all week. This would reduce timeframe when he could return to move, or further conceal SM…in amongst the frenzy going on locally with her disappearance hitting media.
I’m tending to think her body, the biggest obstacle he had to dispose of, was done on the Sunday. I think the ‘trophies’ were maybe gradually destroyed and disposed of over coming days. This would account for the pinging of SM’s device later Sunday as it was in his possession. He may have wanted to research about disposal or further dismantle these trophies and destroy them before getting rid of whatever remained

Even during any debatable 8 hour window, one would think that he had his mobile with him so he could answer messages or calls from his loved ones and friends. It is hard to be gone for 8 hours with no communications whatsoever, unless you are on a long distance flight.

One thing I remember reading about disposing of a body is that the offender tries not to be gone long enough to be missed. To avoid raising suspicions. A 3 hour window is usually the safest.
(I will look for the link and post it if I find it again. I read it way back during the Karen Ristevski case.)

imo

 

[Hestia's Fire]

Crikey., Hestia . that's a bold claim there, in the DF.. er, DM. First I have heard of that actually stated in a newspaper. Hard to tell if that came from the police, or from around the water cooler at the DM.

That would mean he had a shovel with him, and a pickaxe. The ground is hard as , in the bush, been baking all summer, too, and that the dogs have missed it.. I don't know. Or he left her there, and went home for the equipment. You can't actually dig a grave, in the bush, with your bare hands. A shallow dip, maybe. It would take hours. ...

But anything is possible. .. . probable.. .. hard to dig a grave silently, too. . lots of banging and shuffling, groaning and puffing.. .. put me in the skeptical basket, on this one,

Your description of the hard-baked ground and the difficulty in digging a grave there made me wonder: if a sleuther had access to a regularly-updated global satellite website like Planet.com, would it be possible to look back over the area on the day before Sam went missing and compare it to the day of her murder and potentially spot some small anomaly in the ground that might indicate a clandestine grave? I know those satellites have been used to spot mass graves in conflict zones, but I don't know if they're able to zoom in close enough to spot a single grave.

 

[Dr Samoht]

I noted this history of on and off sale when we had the address at hand. Usually a property has this chequered history if there is something wrong with it, but maybe there is a more purposeful angle regarding having a tennant for a reason: property prices have dramatically increased over the last 2-3 years in every state in Australia, however there could be another reason altogether? Examining the durations of length of time spent on the market then taken off appears very erratic to me, very erratic. Was there a moderator driving this? MOO

Possibly it was never off the market .. sometimes listings can go stale with a particular agent ( focussed on easier , more attractive , closer to the office listings maybe ) and the seller out of frustration ( supposed agent inaction ) sat out the agency listing time agreement , and sought out a new agent with hopefully an energised , focussed approach on getting a timely sale .
It’s not unusual to move from agent to agent .

 

[SouthAussie]

Your description of the hard-baked ground and the difficulty in digging a grave there made me wonder: if a sleuther had access to a regularly-updated global satellite website like Planet.com, would it be possible to look back over the area on the day before Sam went missing and compare it to the day of her murder and potentially spot some small anomaly in the ground that might indicate a clandestine grave? I know those satellites have been used to spot mass graves in conflict zones, but I don't know if they're able to zoom in close enough to spot a single grave.

I think that is one of the things they look for when the police fly over an area during a search for a missing person. Recently dug over ground.

imo

 

[Trooper]

Your description of the hard-baked ground and the difficulty in digging a grave there made me wonder: if a sleuther had access to a regularly-updated global satellite website like Planet.com, would it be possible to look back over the area on the day before Sam went missing and compare it to the day of her murder and potentially spot some small anomaly in the ground that might indicate a clandestine grave? I know those satellites have been used to spot mass graves in conflict zones, but I don't know if they're able to zoom in close enough to spot a single grave.

I am only guessing how hard it would be to do that, dig a grave, in a damn hurry, deep enough, in the hot sunlight. I've never actually done it myself, I hasten to add., .Not that I don'l have contenders to put in one , should I turn my skills to the job. But it takes time, as I've seen and done post hole digging in the bush, with just a pick and shovel, backbreaking stuff. The parched earth folds in on itself, one digs that same hole over and over, ... One would choose to do that in the middle of winter, bit of soaked ground.

 

[Deleted member 340727]

Dirt samples in tires and inside his ute may become very important if that’s the case.

This is an excellent point Nett_Mc. This article may assist along the lines you have opened up:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/315709110_Soil_Forensic_Analysis

 

[Whatson]

Your description of the hard-baked ground and the difficulty in digging a grave there made me wonder: if a sleuther had access to a regularly-updated global satellite website like Planet.com, would it be possible to look back over the area on the day before Sam went missing and compare it to the day of her murder and potentially spot some small anomaly in the ground that might indicate a clandestine grave? I know those satellites have been used to spot mass graves in conflict zones, but I don't know if they're able to zoom in close enough to spot a single grave.

The region this took place is very bush fire prone and there were bush fires at the time.

Now from my own accounts after a bush fire, it's very common to go around and encounter big holes from where a dead tree has burnt out. In fact, sometimes these places cannot be ridden by offroad motorbike because there's too many large holes and a nasty accident is almost a given.

So the idea of locating such a hole to use as a grave is not out of the question and I am sure concealing it would not be that hard either. You could quite easily fill it in and even go as far as to transplant one of the native grass trees on top. These trees have the ability to survive bush fires and are abundant in the region from the few pictures I have seen of the forests.

Grass-trees in Canadian Regional Park

Two grass-trees grow in Canadian Regional Park. Austral Grass-tree Xanthorhoea austalis is wide spread in the park with Small Grass-tree Xanthorhoea minor in a few areas. In some areas these two sp…

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66 reactions · 7 comments | Grasstree Burning | By Roleystone Volunteer Fire & Rescue Service | Facebook

Grasstree Burning

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Granted, the relocating of a grass tree may be a little difficult. So covering a hole with dirt and burnt timber would be a seemingly minimal effort and more likely option.

 

[Neet_Mc]

Even during any debatable 8 hour window, one would think that he had his mobile with him so he could answer messages or calls from his loved ones and friends. It is hard to be gone for 8 hours with no communications whatsoever, unless you are on a long distance flight.

One thing I remember reading about disposing of a body is that the offender tries not to be gone long enough to be missed. To avoid raising suspicions. A 3 hour window is usually the safest.
(I will look for the link and post it if I find it again. I read it way back during the Karen Ristevski case.)

imo

100% and even more so for a tech-era 22yo! As I see it, he was either:
- gone for variable length of time with his phone switched on (amateur hour!)
- gone for short period of time without phone / phone switched off
- gone for long period of time without phone / phone switched off in which case he would have most likely explained his whereabouts and technological absence to someone (gf/housemate/family).

 

[Dotta]

What her poor family is going through is devastating to imagine.
Children, parents, husband, siblings, uncles, aunts.

Not able to bury their loved one in a civilised manner.

Imagining her dumped like trash in some shallow grave or water or God knows where.

This is all too much

 

[Trooper]

What would be handy to know, and I am sure the police know, is what obligations did he meet on that Sunday..

What one's did he miss.

Because it is possible that he had arrangements in place for that Sunday, it is reasonable to believe that his interaction with Mrs. Murphy was not done with any foreknowledge of her movements, her murder might have been, most likely was, a big interruption to his day. The disposal of the body being the main problem requiring time, and vehicular assistance, perhaps, tools, , some equipment maybe..

This would narrow the time frame down , under which he acted within. He has to watch the clock, like everyone else.. .

 

[Hestia's Fire]

The region this took place is very bush fire prone and there were bush fires at the time.

Now from my own accounts after a bush fire, it's very common to go around and encounter big holes from where a dead tree has burnt out. In fact, sometimes these places cannot be ridden by offroad motorbike because there's too many large holes and a nasty accident is almost a given.

So the idea of locating such a hole to use as a grave is not out of the question and I am sure concealing it would not be that hard either. You could quite easily fill it in and even go as far as to transplant one of the native grass trees on top. These trees have the ability to survive bush fires and are abundant in the region from the few pictures I have seen of the forests.

Grass-trees in Canadian Regional Park

Two grass-trees grow in Canadian Regional Park. Austral Grass-tree Xanthorhoea austalis is wide spread in the park with Small Grass-tree Xanthorhoea minor in a few areas. In some areas these two sp…

fieldnatballarat.wordpress.com

66 reactions · 7 comments | Grasstree Burning | By Roleystone Volunteer Fire & Rescue Service | Facebook

Grasstree Burning

www.facebook.com

Granted, the relocating of a grass tree may be a little difficult. So covering a hole with dirt and burnt timber would be a seemingly minimal effort and more likely option.

This seems like the perfect use for the kind of AI applications they've used to detect cancer cells and differentiate between different types of pastry at a bakery checkout. The technology exists, so it is my fervent hope that some brilliant person creates an easy-to-use application that would allow a user to compare satellite images of the same place on two consecutive days and have it highlight any anomalies that appear. Surely it would be easier and more cost-efficient than flying around in an airplane, trying to spot disturbed patches of ground or wondering if that tree was actually an open hole yesterday, or a month ago.

 

[SouthAussie]

I am only guessing how hard it would be to do that, dig a grave, in a damn hurry, deep enough, in the hot sunlight. I've never actually done it myself, I hasten to add., .Not that I don'l have contenders to put in one , should I turn my skills to the job. But it takes time, as I've seen and done post hole digging in the bush, with just a pick and shovel, backbreaking stuff. The parched earth folds in on itself, one digs that same hole over and over, ... One would choose to do that in the middle of winter, bit of soaked ground.

I think it must be very difficult to dig a grave. And do so within a reasonable amount of time. A period of time where you don't feel that you have left the body exposed to be found, while you are digging.


Borce tucked Karen in between two fallen branches, and covered her with leaves and dirt.
Greg Lynn allegedly put Russell and Carol's remains into a hole that was formed by a root ball, and burned them.
Adrian Bayley dug a shallow grave by a roadside, behind two trees, for lifeless Jill.
Steven Hunter put Sarah's lifeless body into a wheelie bin and covered her in concrete.

imo

 

[HoneyBunOne]

A police prosecutor said there was "a significant amount of material" in the brief of evidence.

The magistrate ordered police to file the brief to the man's defence team by July 25.

Media outlets to argue for suppression order on identity of Samantha Murphy's accused killer to be lifted

The Ballarat Magistrates' Court ordered the name of a 22-year-old man be suppressed after he was charged with murdering Ballarat mother Samantha Murphy.

www.abc.net.au

(Just putting this here so we can find it again if we are looking for the date on which the brief of evidence must be given to the accused. The date is 2 weeks before his committal mention hearing on 8th Aug.)

2 weeks does not seem very long at all to be on equal footing with the police, as far as knowledge of evidence goes.

so, it takes 20 weeks to review and pull the evidence together, but the defence only get 2 weeks to review?

I agree!

Fresh sign , new agent ( McGrath)
Previous sign was for PRD.
Home has been up for sale over 12 months now.

Not sure which publication got it wrong, but it was reported earlier that the home has been on the market since Nov 2023. DM have reported much longer I believe.

 

[Trooper]

I think it must be very difficult to dig a grave. And do so within a reasonable amount of time. A period of time where you don't feel that you have left the body exposed to be found, while you are digging.


Borce tucked Karen in between two fallen branches, and covered her with leaves and dirt.
Greg Lynn allegedly put Russell and Carol's remains into a hole that was formed by a root ball, and burned them.
Adrian Bayley dug a shallow grave by a roadside, behind two trees, for lifeless Jill.
Steven Hunter put Sarah's lifeless body into a wheelie bin and covered her in concrete.

imo

Borce and Adrian were in a tearing hurry, they had obligations to address, people who were expecting them elsewhere, places to return to, on time, so as not to have to explain things.. hurry can muck up a killer's actions like nothing else, I imagine. Even Lynn had a very narrow time frame to perform everything he absolutely had to do.

 

[jjleroche]

Yes. The ~8 hour window on Sunday is a maximum. He returned to his employment on the Monday and I’m presuming he was there all week. This would reduce timeframe when he could return to move, or further conceal SM…in amongst the frenzy going on locally with her disappearance hitting media.
I’m tending to think her body, the biggest obstacle he had to dispose of, was done on the Sunday. I think the ‘trophies’ were maybe gradually destroyed and disposed of over coming days. This would account for the pinging of SM’s device later Sunday as it was in his possession. He may have wanted to research about disposal or further dismantle these trophies and destroy them before getting rid of whatever remained

Regarding the alleged perpetrator presumed to be at work all week - IIRC in a post not long after his name was it waa noted that he was an electrician working for his father, former AFL footballer O

I am trying to ascertain the probabilities - say compared to someone like Greg Lynn, if you are familiar with him?

Former pilot Greg Lynn to stand trial for alleged murders of Victorian campers Russell Hill and Carol Clay

Lynn has pleaded not guilty to murdering the pair, who went missing in 2020 while camping in the Wonnangatta Valley, north-east of Melbourne

www.theguardian.com

Not trying to derail? sorry.

But PS is 22 years old and has made mistakes - to bring him under arrest so far. IMO

Just trying to work out the probabilities of whether he is such a mastermind to successfully conceal SM longterm. Obviously they haven't found SM - so he has been successful. I am just wondering why that is?

Did he act impulsively first - regardless of risk - CCTV, phone pings but after that he was a mastermind. Is that possible?? MOO

Just a thought - maybe he didn't act impulsively.

 

[Deleted member 340727]

Possibly it was never off the market .. sometimes listings can go stale with a particular agent ( focussed on easier , more attractive , closer to the office listings maybe ) and the seller out of frustration ( supposed agent inaction ) sat out the agency listing time agreement , and sought out a new agent with hopefully an energised , focussed approach on getting a timely sale .
It’s not unusual to move from agent to agent .

Dr Samoht, I understand your points and they are valid ones in ordinary circumstances. But look at this: it has sat with the same agt. and did not shift agt. (until now) and it was 'WITHDRAWN' twice for a reason with the same agt. (o/s any normal or standard aggr. t/f and terms) in a very short period of time (less 1/12). I cannot list dates here. Then I suspect it became house sitting modus. Usually there is a lengthy period of time before a change and not an off and on approach and maybe the s/r was undecided from the start. MOO.

 

[HoneyBunOne]

I tend to think he is not a ‘mastermind’, and that her body is somewhere that falls within a distance that he could have travelled to, dealt with and disposed of in the limited timeframe between 9am(?) and the time when phone pinged again later in the afternoon 5pm(?).
Based on this there is a ~8 hour return trip window. So if her body isn’t located close to where he encountered her, then it’s within radius of 4 hour drive from Ballarat (travelling at 100km/Hr this could be ~400km away - which means potentially over SA, and NSW borders), most likely an area PS has some familiarity with (if he is a dirt bike rider, then possibly remote bush area he has been to or considered before). If he disposed of the body by driving it away from the initial incident location, then there is extremely high likelihood of cctv and dashcam footage showing segments of this trip. Potentially also purchase of fuel, although if this was his intention, he may have had or purchased fuel for fuel tanks he could have taken with him). I think pattern of police search activity would have already indicated this already, so looking less likely.
If he disposed of her more locally, again I’m not of opinion it was mastermind-fully planned, I think he had been more ‘lucky’. Given terrain and landmarks, I’m tending to think a mine shaft because neither the body nor the devices haven’t yet been discovered with the extensive searching or burial. If she had been buried, I’m surprised signs of disturbance haven’t already been detected in searching. Dirt samples in tires and inside his ute may become very important if that’s the case.
Additional thoughts - if he did go with more local disposal site, then potentially he had an 8 hour window to dispose of SM. A sizeable hole could be excavated in such a timeframe. But this does beg question of whether he was spotted doing this by anyone in the vicinity but also how he accounted for his absence? Did he take a bike with him as guise for going riding for the day? Did he have his phone off and then claim he was in an out-of-coverage area?

I'm of the belief the accused did not take a huge chunk of time to go out of his way to dispose of Samantha's body. He appears to have a good understanding of his surroundings, having grown up in the area and enjoyed outdoor activities. I don't think he would want to risk being caught on CCTV, or having to refuel his vehicle, regardless of if he had the whole day free of commitments. I think he stuck pretty close to home. There are lots of options as far as forested type areas go, and it doesn't make him a mastermind to have her not be found yet. It can be a case of looking for a needle in a haystack, and so far that needle has been elusive. Pure luck perhaps? Many bodies have been found over the years in wooded areas without much in the way of coverage, or graves being dug. The sheer size of our country, and the vast amounts of rugged bush areas makes it harder to locate bodies that aren't hidden that well. I do feel that something significant will be found within the next month - a phone, her watch, or hopefully her body.

Possibly it was never off the market .. sometimes listings can go stale with a particular agent ( focussed on easier , more attractive , closer to the office listings maybe ) and the seller out of frustration ( supposed agent inaction ) sat out the agency listing time agreement , and sought out a new agent with hopefully an energised , focussed approach on getting a timely sale .
It’s not unusual to move from agent to agent .

Yes, agreed. It appears bad to buyers if a property has been on the market too long, it makes them wonder what's wrong with it. For whatever reasons, some sellers choose to sell "off market" too. You do need to bear in mind that rural properties take a lot longer than suburban ones to sell, even in a housing crisis. Now that it's "tainted", I feel the owner may have a problem selling.

 

[Whatson]

Some people just overprice the houses not caring if they sell or not. In fact, agents will harass you just to list it at a high price so they have listing's. Particularly in regional areas where not much is for sale... Which might explain the small sign up until now.

The upgrade to a larger sign and new agent gives the impression the seller finally wants to sell.