Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat, 4 Feb 2024 *Arrest* #10

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Thanks team.
I’m so relieved that her phone has been found, not only some positive news for her family, but also for the investigations group to finally see some fruits of their exhaustive labours.

I tend to think her body may be much Closed to the actual crime scene, as imo it would be a huge risk to drive around in broad daylight with a dead body in the car, to then dispose of. .. IF the only ping was at 5 pm ( and it very well could be because I think Mick said that her phone was Off in the morning when he tried to call her) then I think it was a deliberate decoy.

Unless he left the car & body parked in a garage somewhere, and went out again later to do the disposal at night. … tossing the phone in the dam on the way, and then going faaar away with the body.

I think the police would know of his movements that day & night from g/f etc as they were living together.

All just my thoughts
Great post Warshawski.

The thing that has had me stumped ever since the arrest of PS, has been the proclaimed absolute certainty of investigators that they've got this right.

Vicpol must have incontrovertible proof. They're not in the business of deliberately kicking themselves in the foot.

IMO that sort of proof is rather limited, but could be:
1. An eye-witness account of the murder
2. Footage of the event from fixed CCTV's in the area, or portable cameras used to research movements of various
fauna species
3. Footage which Samantha may have captured whilst fleeing from her attacker, and/or calling for help
(IIRC, Warshawski noted that her phone wouldn't necessarily be needed to access this - it may have gone directly to
the Cloud - thanks for that information Warshawski).

A fourth option has occurred to me whilst reading your post Warshawski. You mentioned the possibility of the alleged perpetrator leaving the car containing Samantha's body "parked in a garage somewhere" until he'd decided how to dispose of it. If so, MAYBE incriminating footage from inside that building may have existed.

It's possible IMO.


In the attached clip of the "arrest" press conference, Vicpol's Commissioner Shane Patton noted that the alleged killer had been arrested after being interviewed for several hours, and search warrants executed. He also noted that the alleged killer had not disclosed the location of Samantha's body. That infers to me that the alleged perpetrator may have admitted he killed Samantha.


MOO
 
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I guess with Court proceedings looming in August,
Police is under pressure to secure as much evidence as possible.
I also think Defence must be informed of it some time before Court sitting
(2 weeks before?)

Time is flying.

JMO
 
IMO
The last ping of Samantha's phone.
On Sunday in February at 5 pm.

The area of the last ping
has been always,
from the start,
the target of Police's scrutiny.

JMO
No, I meant the targeted focus on that specific dam and now. There’s many dams of a similar size located across the area of the last apparent ping.

Why request access to this specific dam 3 weeks ago and put aside 3 days to search?

Where’s the new intel coming from?

“The owner of the property, who wished to remain anonymous, told Daily Mail police contacted him about three weeks ago asking to access the property.”

Wonder what prompted this lead?

https://www.skynews.com.au/australi...r/news-story/6e982d7a7e33af78f8056c77b07d5d38
 
I tend to think the opposite. The cool is a facade and he’s internally seriously pooping himself.
I reckon this incident was possibly fantasised about but not actually well prepared or organised as it was opportunistic that morning.

I reckon the clean up and disposal was made up as he went and the body was parked not too far away, just so that he could get out of there and “resume normal”.

Body may then have been moved afterwards, hence the array of seemingly targeted police searches in multiple spots (perhaps informed by witnesses with scraps of info).
JMO
I don’t think he managed to “resume normal” . Agree it was opportunistic and not planned
 
No, I meant the targeted focus on that specific dam and now. There’s many dams of a similar size located across the area of the last apparent ping.

Why request access to this specific dam 3 weeks ago and put aside 3 days to search?

Where’s the new intel coming from?

“The owner of the property, who wished to remain anonymous, told Daily Mail police contacted him about three weeks ago asking to access the property.”

Wonder what prompted this lead?

https://www.skynews.com.au/australi...r/news-story/6e982d7a7e33af78f8056c77b07d5d38

A witness.

But it is only my opinion.

I guess somebody saw him there.
Maybe a driver?
It is a public road with some traffic, no?
A dash cam?
Anonymous tip?
Somebody who kept silent until now?

Who knows?

JMO
 
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No, I meant the targeted focus on that specific dam and now. There’s many dams of a similar size located across the area of the last apparent ping.

Why request access to this specific dam 3 weeks ago and put aside 3 days to search?

Where’s the new intel coming from?

“The owner of the property, who wished to remain anonymous, told Daily Mail police contacted him about three weeks ago asking to access the property.”

Wonder what prompted this lead?

https://www.skynews.com.au/australi...r/news-story/6e982d7a7e33af78f8056c77b07d5d38
Apparently, the property owner said the police rang him,, about 3 weeks before the search that found the phone , saying that their dogs had alerted at something on the fence line some time previous, during a search back in April? and could they check it out now.

What the something is, he didn't say, and one can probably presume the police didn't tell him, but gee, wouldn't you like to know, ey R, something a dog alerted to. Clothing? some personal item of gear? ..
 
No, I meant the targeted focus on that specific dam and now. There’s many dams of a similar size located across the area of the last apparent ping.

Why request access to this specific dam 3 weeks ago and put aside 3 days to search?

Where’s the new intel coming from?

“The owner of the property, who wished to remain anonymous, told Daily Mail police contacted him about three weeks ago asking to access the property.”

Wonder what prompted this lead?

https://www.skynews.com.au/australi...r/news-story/6e982d7a7e33af78f8056c77b07d5d38
It may be possible that there have been many tipoffs that police have been given and they are slowly working their way through them. IMO this particular search would have required a degree of planning due to organising specialist search dogs, divers, the digger etc. The dam to me looked as though it may have been partially drained due to the water lines that are obvious in many of the photos, hence the reason owners possibly notified prior to the search.
All just my thoughts and opinions :rolleyes: :)
 
Any websleuths game enough to offer a comprehensive theory (at this stage of the game) on what exactly happened on the fateful day of Samantha’s disappearance - who, when, where, what, how, why etc - up until the day the accused was arrested..?

I would love to hear peoples’ current theories, (as opposed to bits and pieces, and ever-shifting ideas dispersed over 10 threads….!) :oops:

All with the disclaimer of 100% speculation of course… ;)

… And a commitment to kindness, openness and receptivity by all websleuths in relation to the expression of different viewpoints, and possibilities, as per the TOS :)
I’m 100% speculating

Based on observations Of young people when off their heads and a smattering of facts I recall from articles

He went out on Saturday night
Too drunk/drug affected etc to get home so left car at the pub set off walking home. Young and fit and happy to walk.
Along the way encountered SM who was known to him via her connection at the school. She made a comment probably about his drug use. He lost it and killed her. So got home, got a vehicle , moved her , and disposed of her phone on her way home hence the ping ( he had to lead away from the spot of the body) slung it in a dam. Calculated . Rapidly sobered up and found a way to convince those around him he had had a normal day

Kept his cool every time she came up in conversation ( and she would have it was all over the news )

Later footage from somewhere has shown he drove that road ….
Meanwhile his loved ones will be wondering what they missed and what next for them.

His motive - anger at her because she said something to him (???)
If he is normally on drugs he ll no doubt be struggling in prison without any to take his nerves down
He ll talk soon
All my opinion only
 
Apparently, the property owner said the police rang him,, about 3 weeks before the search that found the phone , saying that their dogs had alerted at something on the fence line some time previous, during a search back in April? and could they check it out now.

What the something is, he didn't say, and one can probably presume the police didn't tell him, but gee, wouldn't you like to know, ey R, something a dog alerted to. Clothing? some personal item of gear? ..
Yep, would love to know. This article says several items were found, not just the phone & cards. The big digger pulling up the bushes on the fence line seems an aggressive move if trying to find delicate items, or were they doing that for another reason? The dogs are tech trackers apparently so maybe the excavator was to expose and loosen the ground where the dogs originally showed interest.

That dam is close to the next dam and both have houses facing them and the road. The chosen dam has the bushes between it and the road offering coverage, whereas the other nearby dam doesn’t.

“The phone, encased in a wallet-like cover with cards inside, was among several “items of interest” found near the Buninyong dam. It was discovered by a police dog along Buninyong-Mt Mercer Road, where police teams equipped with picks, shovels, rakes, and metal detectors, meticulously searched the surrounding blackberry bushes.”

 
I’m 100% speculating

Based on observations Of young people when off their heads and a smattering of facts I recall from articles

He went out on Saturday night
Too drunk/drug affected etc to get home so left car at the pub set off walking home. Young and fit and happy to walk.
Along the way encountered SM who was known to him via her connection at the school. She made a comment probably about his drug use. He lost it and killed her. So got home, got a vehicle , moved her , and disposed of her phone on her way home hence the ping ( he had to lead away from the spot of the body) slung it in a dam. Calculated . Rapidly sobered up and found a way to convince those around him he had had a normal day

Kept his cool every time she came up in conversation ( and she would have it was all over the news )

Later footage from somewhere has shown he drove that road ….
Meanwhile his loved ones will be wondering what they missed and what next for them.

His motive - anger at her because she said something to him (???)
If he is normally on drugs he ll no doubt be struggling in prison without any to take his nerves down
He ll talk soon
All my opinion only

It seems plausible.

Especially anger
as was previously reported he suffered from bouts of it.

Booze and drugs could only deepen such issues.
I bet he is jittery in jail without his usual "fuel" :rolleyes:

As for talking....
It depends what evidence Defence will be presented with before Court sitting.

Usually,
it all starts with NG plea.

JMO
 
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Any websleuths game enough to offer a comprehensive theory (at this stage of the game) on what exactly happened on the fateful day of Samantha’s disappearance - who, when, where, what, how, why etc - up until the day the accused was arrested..?

I would love to hear peoples’ current theories, (as opposed to bits and pieces, and ever-shifting ideas dispersed over 10 threads….!) :oops:

All with the disclaimer of 100% speculation of course… ;)

… And a commitment to kindness, openness and receptivity by all websleuths in relation to the expression of different viewpoints, and possibilities, as per the TOS :)
Ok I’ll give it a go ProfCleuzo
All pure speculation & conjecture and IMHO

I do not think the accused hit Samantha by accident or that she said anything that provoked him.
I think the accused had an erratic and sometimes violent nature that he exhibited from time to time.
Thereby neither his friends nor his family believe in his innocence nor have they spoken up for him or sat in support of him in court.
While shocked by this crime, those who knew him well have seen his dark side and realize what he is capable of. They are stunned that his crimes escalated to this but they do not doubt that the right culprit has been detained.
I do not believe that the accused recognized Samantha as the mother of a possible distant acquaintance or former schoolmate from many years before or that he realized or cared that she was old enough to be his mother.
I do believe on impulse he thought she was younger than she was.
I think that the accused has exhibited signs of delinquency/ sexual aggression in the past. Possibly (likely even) sexual assault is in his past. I think he is a narcissistic sociopath who exhibits very poor impulse control.
I think this was his first murder but it was sexually motivated and I think he violently kidnapped and assaulted Samantha.
I think this was a crime of opportunity and impulse -he went looking for a victim and Samantha was in the wrong place at the wrong time - he decides to kidnap/rape/murder.
The actual assault took place in the back of the Ute after he attacked and impaired her- forcing her into the Ute.
He threw her body into the back of his Ute and left forensic evidence there after disposing of her body and attempting to clean the evidence from his vehicle.
He turned her phone off when he kidnapped her.
I think her body is in Creswick regional park to the north of where he picked her up and an area he was familiar with from previous nature/camping trips.
He went to minimal lengths to dispose of her- covered her with brush/leaves and such after driving to a desolate area and dragging her 50-60 feet from the car path into the brush then another 50-60 feet after that to a spot where she would be deep in the trees and possibly obscured by fallen logs/ trees/ large branches.
He then took the time to try to cover the path of dragging with sticks/ leaves and such so that someone driving through later wouldn’t know where he stopped and started to drag he body through the brush.
He may have tried to roll logs / branches over her body.
She isn’t in water and isn’t in a mine.
The accused is sloppy and not overtly intelligent and has simply been very lucky that the body hasn’t been located yet.
He has a conceited grandiose feeling that he is above the law and that he can get by with whatever he wants to do without any consequences.
He does what he wants when he wants without regard for others.
He was shocked himself when he was arrested.
Her phone (and possibly articles of her clothing and/or a tool she was struck with) was disposed of later in the day by him tossing it over the hedge and into the dam where it was recently recovered.
 
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