Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat, 4 Feb 2024 *Arrest* #11

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Thanks for this article Rocket. It provides the info I’d been searching for re the timeline of when Police were notified :
Murphy was supposed to be back at around 9am, according to Allan. By 11am, two hours after her scheduled return home, Allan said her husband Mick made the phone call to police to report her missing.

I recall that Mick did some searching himself before calling police, which indicates there was not much time to disappear with SM & remove all trace of her from the suggested crime scene.
The activity in the forest comes across as fast and tidy don’t you think? If Sam was bleeding on the ground, or her shoe fell off in the bush for example, they would have found that and raised the alarm about it being suspicious or a crime scene etc from the get go you’d think. Vicpol’s quite early inference that Sam probably didn’t leave the forest alive, if in fact there was no physical evidence at the site (is that even possible?), would have needed to have come from some other intel, like the metrics from her phone which we’ve already covered.

A car close by would’ve been essential because of the time-frame and clean up. jmo

“Det Acting Supt Mark Hatt said there was nothing to indicate that Murphy left the area of her own accord and ruled out a medical incident.”

 
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The activity in the forest comes across as fast and tidy don’t you think? If Sam was bleeding on the ground, or a shoe fell off in the bush for example, they would have found that and raised the alarm about it being suspicious or a crime scene etc from the get go really. Yet she’s said to have most likely died there in the forest with nothing apart from probably metrics from her phone.

“Det Acting Supt Mark Hatt said there was nothing to indicate that Murphy left the area of her own accord and ruled out a medical incident.”


He had at least two hours, I think. Not really "fast". imo

He didn't have to clean himself up in that time. Or dispose of Sam and her belongings. He had plenty of time to do that once he was away from Mt Clear.

All he "had to" do in that two hours was murder Sam, get her into his vehicle, check around for evidence on the ground, and scarper.
 
He had at least two hours, I think. Not really "fast". imo

He didn't have to clean himself up in that time. Or dispose of Sam and her belongings. He had plenty of time to do that once he was away from Mt Clear.

All he "had to" do in that two hours was murder Sam, get her into his vehicle, check around for evidence on the ground, and scarper.
Two hours between 8 and 10 do you mean?
He wouldn’t have known that though and surely others would’ve been walking & jogging around that area. Nevertheless you’d want to be gone with your car far away as soon as possible to avoid witnesses and detection, and that’s what I mean by fast. Unless he loitered and his (damaged?) car was in fact seen there by witnesses.
 
Two hours between 8 and 10 do you mean?
He wouldn’t have known that though and surely others would’ve been walking & jogging around that area. Nevertheless you’d want to be gone with your car far away as soon as possible to avoid witnesses and detection, and that’s what I mean by fast. Unless he loitered and his (damaged?) car was in fact seen there by witnesses.

Yes, I mean between 8 and 10 (not that he knew that).

I can't imagine that he killed Sam out on the public track. I think it more likely that he knocked her down/out (maybe a bit like Sissy), and then dragged/carried Sam into the bush or tall grasses. Because I think SA was likely the motive.

No-one is going to think much about an empty vehicle sitting wherever his vehicle was, at the time. But there may (or may not) be someone who remembered seeing an empty ute somewhere that morning .... once he was arrested.

imo
 
..... think about what’s being offered to us and what’s its purpose?

Just going back to this suggestion by you @Rocket333.

Remember the very staged police "search" at Mt Clear, where the police allowed the media to film them. Investigating something on the ground, and also walking back into the bush/long grasses?

I think it is possible/probable that Sam was dragged back into that bushland, assaulted and killed. Having been knocked down/out prior to that. Then brought back to PS' vehicle and driven away.

imo
 
Seems there is a swing in the chat to thoughts he may not have done it?
 
Just going back to this suggestion by you @Rocket333.

Remember the very staged police "search" at Mt Clear, where the police allowed the media to film them. Investigating something on the ground, and also walking back into the bush/long grasses?

I think it is possible/probable that Sam was dragged back into that bushland, assaulted and killed. Having been knocked down/out prior to that. Then brought back to PS' vehicle and driven away.

imo
Yes I remember that. That search, the technology detecting dogs search, and the dam search came across as quite performative, especially as the police has not hesitated in telling the public to stay away from other searches. Who’s the desired audience and what’s the message?
I agree with all of your thoughts. Either in the bushes or the back of the ute. I think the ute is going to prove critical here.
 
Yes I remember that. That search, the technology detecting dogs search, and the dam search came across as quite performative, especially as the police has not hesitated in telling the public to stay away from other searches. Who’s the desired audience and what’s the message?
I agree with all of your thoughts. Either in the bushes or the back of the ute. I think the ute is going to prove critical here.

Audience and message .... PS and anyone (parents, girlfriend, friends, fellow inmates) who can put pressure on him to tell them where Sam is.

imo
 
No-one is going to think much about an empty vehicle sitting wherever his vehicle was, at the time. But there may (or may not) be someone who remembered seeing an empty ute somewhere that morning .... once he was arrested.
True. Or once the police mentioned looking out for a damaged vehicle. Someone might have seen his vehicle at Mt Clear and it might have had pre-existing damage that was memorable once the memory was jogged.
 
Can I not like that? haha
If it goes to trial does PS go on the stand?
Not necessarily IMO.

I haven't been able to find any statistics so far, but purely on the basis of anecdotal information, in Australian
homicide trials, the accused's defence teams would usually be very reluctant to have their client take the stand.

The defence has significantly less control over information presented to the court if their client takes the stand.
This is largely dependant of course, on specific details surrounding the homicide, and the prosecution's evidence

JMO
 
Not necessarily IMO.

I haven't been able to find any statistics so far, but purely on the basis of anecdotal information, in Australian
homicide trials, the accused's defence teams would usually be very reluctant to have their client take the stand.

The defence has significantly less control over information presented to the court if their client takes the stand.
This is largely dependant of course, on specific details surrounding the homicide, and the prosecution's evidence

JMO

I doubt he will take the stand.

Hiding behind his numerous lawyers is my guess.

If he doesn't talk now
He surely will not talk later.

JMO
 
…”If others think this is the incorrect dam, I will be happy to edit with another image.”

View attachment 528909

Actually, I disagree that that is the dam. Instead I think this is the dam they found the phone in along Buninyong-amt Mercer Rd.


IMG_5058.jpeg

The reason is it matches to what MSM such as The Age posted, here is their photo of said dam. You can see it matches to my coordinates .
Images from The Age :

IMG_5056.jpegIMG_5061.jpeg

Here is also a link (behind a paywall but the image shows publicly not behind a payaall if lookup Samantha Murphy dam on google ) :


Therefore if you view down on Google street view , it doesn’t appear there is really a fence at all.just scrub and low bushes so it would be an easy throw from the roadside. Images from Google are 1 year ago .


IMG_5063.jpeg


it would be odd if he pulled over on the opposite side of the road and ran across the traffic to throw the phone in. My guess is he parked (or an accomplice who helped dispose ?) on the exact side of the road as the dam (ie driving south away from ballarat) to throw it in perhaps pretending to check his car tyres or pee and putting it in. I still find it very odd though if broad daylight and such an obvious main road. As others have said it doesn’t really sit right unless he was panicked. Or unless he asap wanted to dispose of it in water to stop the tracking etc on his way south.

But it’s pretty exposed to not only the road traffic but also the house on the property .
See here: (again google street view)

IMG_5064.jpeg

If he drove south then did he still have SM’s body in the back to dispose of .

Also I’ve read here in this old article from 2013 that his father was also a trained telecommunications technician. Orren's family affair
“So, he revisited his working life – he holds two trades, one as an electrician and the other as a telecommunications technician – and waited to see what would happen next.”

So I wonder if he still did that alongside general electrician work. And if the case if PS also had experience there. In that case he would maybe know a lot about phone pings and towers active/down. Just a thought and could be wrong or he stopped doing that to focus on electrician jobs only I’m not sure. JMOO

And then see here the proximity of this dam to the place he was house sitting with his girlfriend in Yendon No 2 Rd , Scotsburn. (Right hand starred location in the image below). They’re close by. Or perhaps he was heading back to the Scotsburn house and noticed the phone in the car and had to dispose quickly. (But would involve parking on the opposite side of the road and crossing over the road to throw it over into the dam - again a bit obvious and noticeable in daylight).
IMG_5062.jpeg

Perhaps he has stopped by this dam before or regularly sees it on a drive and knew there was no high fence

Or perhaps he went direct from My Clear, via the dam and south (not going home in the meantime) and then onwards to dispose of Sam in Enfield State Park or Enfield Plantation or a similar bushland. We know they did a search of Enfield State Park but didn’t find anything with cadaver dogs .
If so then this is the rough travel path:

IMG_5065.jpeg

Perhaps they had pings from down that way and hence the search. It’s about a 26-30min drive Mt Clear to Enfield State Park.

Or perhaps this was too close for him - and he drove further or changed direction . There are other forests he could have chosen.

All JMOO and of course we have to wait until the trial but I’m still baffled why this exposed dam. Seems a little strange unless he was not thinking straight and panicked or wanted her phone under water and not ping en route South (if her body was in the car. ) hmmmmmmm
 
Actually, I disagree that that is the dam. Instead I think this is the dam they found the phone in along Buninyong-amt Mercer Rd.
Yes you’re right so thanks for the correction as I thought the dam was on Slaughterhouse Road too. Not sure now where I got that from. Maybe reports didn’t clarify that it was actually Buninyong-Mercer Road near the corner of Slaughterhouse Road. Changes the perspective a bit as the dam’s actually on a main road and not a more discreet side road.

Back a little in this thread we also discussed the phone being thrown or planted at/in the dam from inside the property, and other items “artifacts” being located there too (ie a torch?) when the excavator was digging up the blackberry bushes on the fence line.
 
Yes you’re right so thanks for the correction as I thought the dam was on Slaughterhouse Road too. Not sure now where I got that from. Maybe reports didn’t clarify that it was actually Buninyong-Mercer Road near the corner of Slaughterhouse Road. Changes the perspective a bit as the dam’s actually on a main road and not a more discreet side road.

Back a little in this thread we also discussed the phone being thrown or planted at/in the dam from inside the property, and other items “artifacts” being located there too (ie a torch?) when the excavator was digging up the blackberry bushes on the fence line.

Many reports didn't mention Buninyong-Mt Mercer Road (only some paywalled ones did IIRC). But they did say "near" Slaughterhouse Road.

The DM said .... The mother-of-three's phone was found on Thursday near Slaughterhouse Road, south of Buninyong, near Ballarat in Victoria. Link

9News said .... Police discovered Samantha's iPhone by a private dam near Slaughterhouse Road, south of Buninyong, on May 29. Link
 
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