Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat, 4 Feb 2024 *Arrest* #11

[SouthAussie]

All JMOO and of course we have to wait until the trial but I’m still baffled why this exposed dam. Seems a little strange unless he was not thinking straight and panicked or wanted her phone under water and not ping en route South (if her body was in the car. ) hmmmmmmm

Getting Sam's phone into the water was not such a bad idea (for him). He just didn't consider that the dam may dry up. It was a very lucky find for the police ... but they worked hard to achieve that find.

I also think that he threw the phone from some distance, because if he was closer to the dam surely he would have thrown it into the middle of the dam. And it might still be undiscovered.

imo

 

[australianwebsleuth]

Actually, I disagree that that is the dam. Instead I think this is the dam they found the phone in along Buninyong-amt Mercer Rd.

37°40'37.4"S 143°52'18.2"E

maps.app.goo.gl

View attachment 529424

The reason is it matches to what MSM such as The Age posted, here is their photo of said dam. You can see it matches to my coordinates .
Images from The Age :

View attachment 529425View attachment 529427

Here is also a link (behind a paywall but the image shows publicly not behind a payaall if lookup Samantha Murphy dam on google ) :

Police hope for a breakthrough on Samantha Murphy

The first physical clue to the missing Ballarat mother’s fate emerges from the mud - a mobile phone.

www.theage.com.au

Therefore if you view down on Google street view , it doesn’t appear there is really a fence at all.just scrub and low bushes so it would be an easy throw from the roadside. Images from Google are 1 year ago .


View attachment 529429


it would be odd if he pulled over on the opposite side of the road and ran across the traffic to throw the phone in. My guess is he parked (or an accomplice who helped dispose ?) on the exact side of the road as the dam (ie driving south away from ballarat) to throw it in perhaps pretending to check his car tyres or pee and putting it in. I still find it very odd though if broad daylight and such an obvious main road. As others have said it doesn’t really sit right unless he was panicked. Or unless he asap wanted to dispose of it in water to stop the tracking etc on his way south.

But it’s pretty exposed to not only the road traffic but also the house on the property .
See here: (again google street view)

View attachment 529430

If he drove south then did he still have SM’s body in the back to dispose of .

Also I’ve read here in this old article from 2013 that his father was also a trained telecommunications technician. Orren's family affair
“So, he revisited his working life – he holds two trades, one as an electrician and the other as a telecommunications technician – and waited to see what would happen next.”

So I wonder if he still did that alongside general electrician work. And if the case if PS also had experience there. In that case he would maybe know a lot about phone pings and towers active/down. Just a thought and could be wrong or he stopped doing that to focus on electrician jobs only I’m not sure. JMOO

And then see here the proximity of this dam to the place he was house sitting with his girlfriend in Yendon No 2 Rd , Scotsburn. (Right hand starred location in the image below). They’re close by. Or perhaps he was heading back to the Scotsburn house and noticed the phone in the car and had to dispose quickly. (But would involve parking on the opposite side of the road and crossing over the road to throw it over into the dam - again a bit obvious and noticeable in daylight).
View attachment 529428

Perhaps he has stopped by this dam before or regularly sees it on a drive and knew there was no high fence

Or perhaps he went direct from My Clear, via the dam and south (not going home in the meantime) and then onwards to dispose of Sam in Enfield State Park or Enfield Plantation or a similar bushland. We know they did a search of Enfield State Park but didn’t find anything with cadaver dogs .
If so then this is the rough travel path:

View attachment 529431

Perhaps they had pings from down that way and hence the search. It’s about a 26-30min drive Mt Clear to Enfield State Park.

Or perhaps this was too close for him - and he drove further or changed direction . There are other forests he could have chosen.

All JMOO and of course we have to wait until the trial but I’m still baffled why this exposed dam. Seems a little strange unless he was not thinking straight and panicked or wanted her phone under water and not ping en route South (if her body was in the car. ) hmmmmmmm

Thankyou for updating this . It actually makes what I was about to post more likely.

 

[acutename]

Yes, I mean between 8 and 10 (not that he knew that).

I can't imagine that he killed Sam out on the public track. I think it more likely that he knocked her down/out (maybe a bit like Sissy), and then dragged/carried Sam into the bush or tall grasses. Because I think SA was likely the motive.

No-one is going to think much about an empty vehicle sitting wherever his vehicle was, at the time. But there may (or may not) be someone who remembered seeing an empty ute somewhere that morning .... once he was arrested.

imo

Is SA a bit creepy since she is about his mother's age? Do not know why I am asking this because I know that age is not really a barrier to attacks but... (need a retching emoji to insert here)

 

[acutename]

Actually, I disagree that that is the dam. Instead I think this is the dam they found the phone in along Buninyong-amt Mercer Rd.

37°40'37.4"S 143°52'18.2"E

maps.app.goo.gl

View attachment 529424

The reason is it matches to what MSM such as The Age posted, here is their photo of said dam. You can see it matches to my coordinates .
Images from The Age :

View attachment 529425View attachment 529427

Here is also a link (behind a paywall but the image shows publicly not behind a payaall if lookup Samantha Murphy dam on google ) :

Police hope for a breakthrough on Samantha Murphy

The first physical clue to the missing Ballarat mother’s fate emerges from the mud - a mobile phone.

www.theage.com.au

Therefore if you view down on Google street view , it doesn’t appear there is really a fence at all.just scrub and low bushes so it would be an easy throw from the roadside. Images from Google are 1 year ago .


View attachment 529429


it would be odd if he pulled over on the opposite side of the road and ran across the traffic to throw the phone in. My guess is he parked (or an accomplice who helped dispose ?) on the exact side of the road as the dam (ie driving south away from ballarat) to throw it in perhaps pretending to check his car tyres or pee and putting it in. I still find it very odd though if broad daylight and such an obvious main road. As others have said it doesn’t really sit right unless he was panicked. Or unless he asap wanted to dispose of it in water to stop the tracking etc on his way south.

But it’s pretty exposed to not only the road traffic but also the house on the property .
See here: (again google street view)

View attachment 529430

If he drove south then did he still have SM’s body in the back to dispose of .

Also I’ve read here in this old article from 2013 that his father was also a trained telecommunications technician. Orren's family affair
“So, he revisited his working life – he holds two trades, one as an electrician and the other as a telecommunications technician – and waited to see what would happen next.”

So I wonder if he still did that alongside general electrician work. And if the case if PS also had experience there. In that case he would maybe know a lot about phone pings and towers active/down. Just a thought and could be wrong or he stopped doing that to focus on electrician jobs only I’m not sure. JMOO

And then see here the proximity of this dam to the place he was house sitting with his girlfriend in Yendon No 2 Rd , Scotsburn. (Right hand starred location in the image below). They’re close by. Or perhaps he was heading back to the Scotsburn house and noticed the phone in the car and had to dispose quickly. (But would involve parking on the opposite side of the road and crossing over the road to throw it over into the dam - again a bit obvious and noticeable in daylight).
View attachment 529428

Perhaps he has stopped by this dam before or regularly sees it on a drive and knew there was no high fence

Or perhaps he went direct from My Clear, via the dam and south (not going home in the meantime) and then onwards to dispose of Sam in Enfield State Park or Enfield Plantation or a similar bushland. We know they did a search of Enfield State Park but didn’t find anything with cadaver dogs .
If so then this is the rough travel path:

View attachment 529431

Perhaps they had pings from down that way and hence the search. It’s about a 26-30min drive Mt Clear to Enfield State Park.

Or perhaps this was too close for him - and he drove further or changed direction . There are other forests he could have chosen.

All JMOO and of course we have to wait until the trial but I’m still baffled why this exposed dam. Seems a little strange unless he was not thinking straight and panicked or wanted her phone under water and not ping en route South (if her body was in the car. ) hmmmmmmm

not sure how it is in AUS but here (US) it is fairly common to see people pull over to review phone directions or make a call- they pull over, maybe put flashers on and no one pays much attention to them stopping

 

[australianwebsleuth]

Was it a coincidence that they found the phone south of Buninyong?

Previously in other posts it has been said that the cell phone network around Ballarat was 'down' the day SM disappeared. Other posts have also said that SM phone pinged south of the Buninyong, on the Buninyong golf course and Mount Clear. In order to determine precisely where a phone is either requires a GPS location or more than one operational cell tower signal from a phone that is turned on. Each tower by measuring the time lag in the ping creates an arc around each tower. As I have posted earlier just having another late model iPhone in proximity to SM phone would be enough to locate it. But what happens when there is only one available tower?

I looked at the phone tower that has been identified in Buninyong and did some measurements.

The phone tower south of Ballarat bird world. You can see the tower in the left lower corner Marked A.

In the next image you can see the 4.2km arc from this phone tower going through the lake identified




In the next image you can see The location that RS was housesitting with his girlfriend. The same ARC is literally metres from the house.




Was SM phone really at 30 Yendon road and did the police search south near the dam just a lucky coincidence.

Incidentally the same ARC goes through where SM disappeared at Mount Clear. I decided not to include the image.

 

[JLZ]

Was it a coincidence that they found the phone south of Buninyong?

Previously in other posts it has been said that the cell phone network around Ballarat was 'down' the day SM disappeared. Other posts have also said that SM phone pinged south of the Buninyong, on the Buninyong golf course and Mount Clear. In order to determine precisely where a phone is either requires a GPS location or more than one operational cell tower signal from a phone that is turned on. Each tower by measuring the time lag in the ping creates an arc around each tower. As I have posted earlier just having another late model iPhone in proximity to SM phone would be enough to locate it. But what happens when there is only one available tower?

I looked at the phone tower that has been identified in Buninyong and did some measurements.

The phone tower south of Ballarat bird world. You can see the tower in the left lower corner Marked A.View attachment 529501

In the next image you can see the 4.2km arc from this phone tower going through the lake identified


View attachment 529503

In the next image you can see The location that RS was housesitting with his girlfriend. The same ARC is literally metres from the house.

View attachment 529504


Was SM phone really at 30 Yendon road and did the police search south near the dam just a lucky coincidence.

Incidentally the same ARC goes through where SM disappeared at Mount Clear. I decided not to include the image.

Isn't it more likely they could tell the direction than the distance?

 

[HoneyBunOne]

Actually, I disagree that that is the dam. Instead I think this is the dam they found the phone in along Buninyong-amt Mercer Rd.

37°40'37.4"S 143°52'18.2"E

maps.app.goo.gl

View attachment 529424

Shortened by me.
In the bottom of the photo you can see the track that people speculated could be a motorbike track, perhaps one PS had used prior if he was acquainted with the property owners. That was when web sleuthers were speculating that perhaps he knew this area quite well. However, in this pic it looks to me like this might be a different property as there could be a fence line starting near the e in Mercer. It may still stand that PS was familiar with this area, and properties nearby, for whatever reason - work, friends etc.

Yes you’re right so thanks for the correction as I thought the dam was on Slaughterhouse Road too. Not sure now where I got that from. Maybe reports didn’t clarify that it was actually Buninyong-Mercer Road near the corner of Slaughterhouse Road. Changes the perspective a bit as the dam’s actually on a main road and not a more discreet side road.

Back a little in this thread we also discussed the phone being thrown or planted at/in the dam from inside the property, and other items “artifacts” being located there too (ie a torch?) when the excavator was digging up the blackberry bushes on the fence line.

Yes, Slaughterhouse Road was mentioned quite early on, and often, when the discovery of the phone was made. I remember it well, as I thought it was ironic that a road name such as this was featuring in a crime of alleged murder. Truth is stranger than fiction.

 

[australianwebsleuth]

Isn't it more likely they could tell the direction than the distance?

NO. Can't tell direction from a single cell tower. Only latency.

 

[drsleuth]

Was it a coincidence that they found the phone south of Buninyong?

Previously in other posts it has been said that the cell phone network around Ballarat was 'down' the day SM disappeared. Other posts have also said that SM phone pinged south of the Buninyong, on the Buninyong golf course and Mount Clear. In order to determine precisely where a phone is either requires a GPS location or more than one operational cell tower signal from a phone that is turned on. Each tower by measuring the time lag in the ping creates an arc around each tower. As I have posted earlier just having another late model iPhone in proximity to SM phone would be enough to locate it. But what happens when there is only one available tower?

I looked at the phone tower that has been identified in Buninyong and did some measurements.

The phone tower south of Ballarat bird world. You can see the tower in the left lower corner Marked A.View attachment 529501

In the next image you can see the 4.2km arc from this phone tower going through the lake identified


View attachment 529503

In the next image you can see The location that RS was housesitting with his girlfriend. The same ARC is literally metres from the house.

View attachment 529504


Was SM phone really at 30 Yendon road and did the police search south near the dam just a lucky coincidence.

Incidentally the same ARC goes through where SM disappeared at Mount Clear. I decided not to include the image.

Police hope for a breakthrough on Samantha Murphy

The first physical clue to the missing Ballarat mother’s fate emerges from the mud - a mobile phone.

www.theage.com.au

This article says that the absence of other towers from which the “ping” could be triangulated, the whereabouts of the phone could not be ascertained beyond the general area of Buninyong and district.

I'm sure I read recently that the ping was east of the tower ( trying to find the link )

 

[JLZ]

Shortened by me.
In the bottom of the photo you can see the track that people speculated could be a motorbike track, perhaps one PS had used prior if he was acquainted with the property owners. That was when web sleuthers were speculating that perhaps he knew this area quite well. However, in this pic it looks to me like this might be a different property as there could be a fence line starting near the e in Mercer. It may still stand that PS was familiar with this area, and properties nearby, for whatever reason - work, friends etc.

Yes, Slaughterhouse Road was mentioned quite early on, and often, when the discovery of the phone was made. I remember it well, as I thought it was ironic that a road name such as this was featuring in a crime of alleged murder. Truth is stranger than fiction.

I rather think from the pictures police were searching all three of those dams. I also thought what looked like motor cycle tracks might be some type of vine being cultivated in lines according to the property's slope.

 

[JLZ]

NO. Can't tell direction from a single cell tower. Only latency.

What's latency?

 

[australianwebsleuth]

Latency is the time it takes for the ping to be received. Radio waves are generated in the cell tower travel at the speed of light, the longer it takes to return the further away it is. Time it takes X speed of light= distance signal travels. That's how it is calculated. There is also an electronic component from transmitter and receiver.

 

[australianwebsleuth]

Police hope for a breakthrough on Samantha Murphy

The first physical clue to the missing Ballarat mother’s fate emerges from the mud - a mobile phone.

www.theage.com.au

This article says that the absence of other towers from which the “ping” could be triangulated, the whereabouts of the phone could not be ascertained beyond the general area of Buninyong and district.

I'm sure I read recently that the ping was east of the tower ( trying to find the link )

This suggests that it is a possibly a complete co-incidence they knew approximately where the phone was. To have the area she disappeared, the location her phone was found and the location where he was staying, being the same distance from the one operating tower is just unbelievably lucky. In all likelihood he was at Scotsburn (east). The phone would not be detectable underwater (it could not have been there at that stage). Maybe even the renewed search at Mount clear that resulted from this detection was for the same reason.

 

[drsleuth]

I don't think it was a complete co-incidence. I think they had some intel, but didn't know exactly which dam, but knew the general area.

IMO

 

[JLZ]

This suggests that it is a possibly a complete co-incidence they knew approximately where the phone was. To have the area she disappeared, the location her phone was found and the location where he was staying, being the same distance from the one operating tower is just unbelievably lucky. In all likelihood he was at Scotsburn (east). The phone would not be detectable underwater (it could not have been there at that stage). Maybe even the renewed search at Mount clear that resulted from this detection was for the same reason.

Then maybe they separately knew he travelled that road.

 

[JLZ]

Latency is the time it takes for the ping to be received. Radio waves are generated in the cell tower travel at the speed of light, the longer it takes to return the further away it is. Time it takes X speed of light= distance signal travels. That's how it is calculated. There is also an electronic component from transmitter and receiver.

So it's a there-and-back communication. Which end does it start? . . . Thank you.

 

[australianwebsleuth]

Was it a coincidence that they found the phone south of Buninyong?

Previously in other posts it has been said that the cell phone network around Ballarat was 'down' the day SM disappeared. Other posts have also said that SM phone pinged south of the Buninyong, on the Buninyong golf course and Mount Clear. In order to determine precisely where a phone is either requires a GPS location or more than one operational cell tower signal from a phone that is turned on. Each tower by measuring the time lag in the ping creates an arc around each tower. As I have posted earlier just having another late model iPhone in proximity to SM phone would be enough to locate it. But what happens when there is only one available tower?

I looked at the phone tower that has been identified in Buninyong and did some measurements.

The phone tower south of Ballarat bird world. You can see the tower in the left lower corner Marked A.View attachment 529501

In the next image you can see the 4.2km arc from this phone tower going through the lake identified


View attachment 529503

In the next image you can see The location that RS was housesitting with his girlfriend. The same ARC is literally metres from the house.

View attachment 529504


Was SM phone really at 30 Yendon road and did the police search south near the dam just a lucky coincidence.

Incidentally the same ARC goes through where SM disappeared at Mount Clear. I decided not to include the image.

Just so everyone is clear about radio geolocation with phone towers, A phone tower sends out a ping and receives a ping back . That establishes the distance that the phone is from the phone tower, not its direction. This is done by measuring latency or the time it takes for the signal to come back. It forms a circle in all directions. Adding a second tower creates another ping and another distance measurement in the form of a circle creating two possible locations where the two circles intersect. Adding a third tower creates another circle which will only intersect with one of those two points which then establishes the actual position of the phone. It is how GPS essentially works as well, but measuring the time latency between satellites.

On the day Samantha Murphy disappeared there was only one operational tower at Buninyong. That means that at 5 pm on the day she disappeared, the phone pinged and could only have been on that gigantic circle. Could not tell where on that circle without two further towers. Hence it was located in the Buninyong district.

What's incredibly interesting and highly improbable; Where she went missing, where the accused was staying and where the phone was found were all on that circle. The same distance from the tower. That's what I am showing you in this post. That's pure chance. A million to one.

When they said her phone pinged at Mount clear and they searched that area again, they probably made a mistake because they did not have enough information to know exactly where to look. They assumed it was Mount Clear because that's where she went running. The phone was probably with the accused at Scotsburn. Its the only logical location. They would not have been able to tell that.

I hope others understand this a bit better.

 

[australianwebsleuth]

So it's a there-and-back communication. Which end does it start? . . . Thank you.

The tower if a phone is turned off. This will lead me to the next post.

 

[drsleuth]

Was it a coincidence that they found the phone south of Buninyong?

Previously in other posts it has been said that the cell phone network around Ballarat was 'down' the day SM disappeared. Other posts have also said that SM phone pinged south of the Buninyong, on the Buninyong golf course and Mount Clear. In order to determine precisely where a phone is either requires a GPS location or more than one operational cell tower signal from a phone that is turned on. Each tower by measuring the time lag in the ping creates an arc around each tower. As I have posted earlier just having another late model iPhone in proximity to SM phone would be enough to locate it. But what happens when there is only one available tower?

I looked at the phone tower that has been identified in Buninyong and did some measurements.

The phone tower south of Ballarat bird world. You can see the tower in the left lower corner Marked A.View attachment 529501

In the next image you can see the 4.2km arc from this phone tower going through the lake identified


View attachment 529503

In the next image you can see The location that RS was housesitting with his girlfriend. The same ARC is literally metres from the house.

View attachment 529504


Was SM phone really at 30 Yendon road and did the police search south near the dam just a lucky coincidence.

Incidentally the same ARC goes through where SM disappeared at Mount Clear. I decided not to include the image.

BBM : Why did you make the arc precisely 4.2kms??

P.S You also need to provide links if you are stating things as fact as per TOS

 

[SouthAussie]

On the day Samantha Murphy disappeared there was only one operational tower at Buninyong. That means that at 5 pm on the day she disappeared, the phone pinged and could only have been on that gigantic circle. Could not tell where on that circle without two further towers. Hence it was located in the Buninyong district.

They can tell which sector the phone pinged on, on a single tower. Which gives them a general direction. It is not one gigantic circle.
They just can't triangulate from one tower, or two (although two is better than one, and not as good as three or more). And the sector is rather large.

I have posted this link several times now. I think it is one of the easiest explanations for a layperson to understand.



Here is how a single mobile network tower would work.

The mobile tower can determine that the signal is being received from the γ sector, and that the source of the signal is close to 8 km from the mobile tower.

The mobile tower is then able to locate the source of the signal, placing the device within the yellow band which is around 16km long and .25km wide for a total of around 4km².

Within each sector, the tower can determine the distance of the transmitting device. This is done by measuring the strength of the signal and the time in which it takes for the signal to hit the destination and return.

Cell Tower Triangulation - GPYes Tracking Solutions

Cell Tower Triangulation is a technique used widely by mobile network operators, devices and phones to help identify their location. A device that is within communication range of three or more mobile network towers is located by the overlap of signals based upon its range from each tower.The...

www.gpyes.com.au