Hi everyone, this is my first time posting on here because it is the first time I've felt I've had anything worthwhile to contribute. I spent a lot of time looking at the Tumblr account this morning and found quite a few interesting / possibly relevant things.
You can see a lot of her original (not reblogged) Tumblr posts here:
http://nouvelle-nouveau.tumblr.com/tagged/LIFE
1. It appears she was headed to Santa Cruz to do something with WWOOF, which provides the initial reason for her to be in CA
http://nouvelle-nouveau.tumblr.com/post/38458710384/insomniasss-more-i-figured-out-where-i
http://wwoofusa.org/Farms?LOC=CA
2. She has been depressed because a couple months ago her boyfriend broke up with her and she seems desperate for friends and possibly desperate for a boyfriend:
http://nouvelle-nouveau.tumblr.com/post/37884347158/more-this-came-out-of-nowhere-my-boyfriend
http://nouvelle-nouveau.tumblr.com/post/39592334436/i-think-im-having-that-delayed-breakup-meltdown
http://nouvelle-nouveau.tumblr.com/post/38288453259/of-course-its-not-a-competition-to-see-who-ends
3. She wasn't sleeping well and was getting more and more emotional:
http://nouvelle-nouveau.tumblr.com/post/39160279976/more-i-have-a-jumble-of-emotions-and-its
4. There is a new guy she is interested in, she doesn't say if he is in CA or elsewhere however she provides some descriptive info about him:
http://nouvelle-nouveau.tumblr.com/post/40549046425/more-so-theres-a-guy-im-interested-in-but
5. The guy she is interested in recently got a tattoo on his left wrist:
http://nouvelle-nouveau.tumblr.com/post/40825008672/more-so-the-boy-i-am-interested-in-he
6. She posts some odd things that to me indicate she may have had a recent altercation with someone, but the last entry I've linked below could also be interpreted as borderline suicidal:
http://nouvelle-nouveau.tumblr.com/post/40665271673/more-my-main-faults-are-that-i-talk-too-much
http://nouvelle-nouveau.tumblr.com/post/40067473296/more-i-really-need-to-be-removed-from-society
7. Throughout the Tumblr there is a strong theme of depression and bipolar characteristics. She appears to suffer from hypomania at times and the tag on this entry references sleeping pills, so she may or may not have been using them recently:
http://nouvelle-nouveau.tumblr.com/post/34350935794/adventures-in-hypomania-part-ii
8. She mentions in various places that she does not drink and does not do drugs although she can see why people would drink or do drugs as an escape.
One thing that is a bit crazy is that there is another Tumblr linked under the ETC section and when visiting that Tumblr it calls itself "a style supplement to nouvelle-nouveau" So one would assume that Elisa controlled both accounts. However the most recent post on there was only 14 hours ago so clearly this one is either operated by someone else or has been set up with some sort of automated posting program:
http://bruitdefond.tumblr.com/post/43711093546
http://bruitdefond.tumblr.com/
I notice that all of the recent posts on Bruitedefond are reblogged from images that were added to the source blog at least 1 month ago. So these fashion posts that are still being added could have all been set up by Elisa about 1 month ago as well.
And all of the recent entries to the nouvelle-nouveau Tumblr were reblogged from other sites with the newest originating from the source blog approximately 3 weeks ago. So theoretically Elisa could have automated all of these approximately 3 weeks ago. Which means she must have been using Tumblr fairly regularly even on her trip to compile all of these postings. That would mean she had a laptop or cellphone, which hopefully police have recovered and could get some info from.
So now that I have linked to all of that, I see a few primary possibilities:
1. Elisa either went to CA to meet with this new guy she was interested in, or he was a new person that she just met while already in CA. This guy could possibly be involved either through intentionally harming her or by accidentally harming her by introducing her to a drug overdose, etc. I would hope the police have a good idea who he is and have already interviewed him.
2. Elisa was so desperate to make more friends that she took risks and went to unsafe clubs, was too friendly with strange people in the building, etc. and this possibly opened her up to being taken advantage of or drugged.
3. She was possibly in a hypomanic state and couldn't sleep so she was exploring the whole building, crawling up the fire escapes, etc. and went into the water tank in this hypomanic state
4. Sadly she seems very depressed in many of her Tumblr entries. I don't think it is impossible to rule out the possibility that she committed suicide and went into the water tank intentionally. However one of her Tumblr posts was telling someone to never commit suicide, so obviously at most times this would clearly be out of the question for her.
I wouldn't rule out that she is sleepwalking in the video footage from the elevator or having some sort of reaction to sleeping pills or alcohol mixed with sleeping pills. However a big question in my mind about the video footage is how did she get to such a high floor in the first place if she was staying on the 4th floor? There should be video footage of her riding up the elevator to get to that higher floor. Maybe there is this footage and it hasn't been released, or maybe the police were never able to locate her on that footage. But if we could see how she reached that 14th or 15th floor (sorry I can't remember which we decided she was on) and if she was alone when riding up the elevator it may shed details as to her state of mind and any companions she may have had on the way up.
Hopefully I didn't break any forum rules by posting all those Tumblr links. If I did, mods please feel free to edit this post to remove the links.