PayrollNerd
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Atlantic coast Florida surfers are waxing their boards in anticipation. oh boy!
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2023
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...
View attachment 444978
Atlantic coast Florida surfers are waxing their boards in anticipation. oh boy!
I like to check the Spaghetti Models website (Mike's Weather Page... powered by Firman Power Equipment!), which has a lot of maps and shows the likely turn toward the north. The graphic comes from South Florida Water Management District, apparently. Guess we shall see...![]()
Tropical Storm Lee Forms, Expected To Rapidly Become Major Hurricane
The National Hurricane Center issued an “extremely bullish” forecast for the new system, which is expected to avoid the U.S., based on steering currents.www.forbes.com
While it’s expected Lee will stay east of the U.S., forecasters with AccuWeather say any potential impacts rely largely on the overall steering pattern of next week’s winds and are advising people along the East Coast to monitor the path of the storm.
Even if the storm doesn’t make landfall stateside, AccuWeather experts are warning of “some stronger surf and dangerous rip currents” along the Eastern Seaboard.
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The past few days, NJ had a few fatal deaths from people swimming in the surf and rip currents with Idalia and Franklin far out to sea.
It all depends on the jet stream! Currently this storm is trending a bit more NE than Dorian. Of course, I don't expect much West-East wind south of Georgia. Further north, westerly winds can keep things off-shore.It would be great if it drifted north and stayed far from the east coast. I'm not holding my breath tho. Anyone else getting Hurricane Dorian vibes???
Tropical Storm Lee / Hurricane Lee prediction.
View attachment 445091
Hurricane Dorian 2019 historical path
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No it does not!
I think the track is a bit unpredictable. I'm looking at the "nowcast" steering layers and if steering doesn't change, it will go north for a day, then head straight west to the Antilles.The pressure is dropping.
Tropical Storm LEECurrent Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits
The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Oceanwww.tropicaltidbits.com
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 06, 2023:
Location: 13.5°N 44.0°W
Maximum Winds: 55 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 30 nm
50 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:
View attachment 445114
Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Discussion Although the NHC
forecast and the model guidance continue to show Lee passing to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands this weekend, users are
reminded that the details of the track forecast are still uncertain
at those time ranges. For reference, the average NHC forecast track
errors are around 125 and 175 n mi on days 4 and 5, respectively.
The NHC track forecast lies on the southern side of the model
guidance envelope, roughly halfway between the usually most skillful
consensus aids, HCCA and TVCA.
How could I have forgotten about tropicaltidbits??? Facepalm. Thanks for reminding me.Hurricane LEE
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 06, 2023:
Location: 14.6°N 46.0°W
Maximum Winds: 65 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 15 nm
64 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:
View attachment 445247
Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits
The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Oceanwww.tropicaltidbits.com