I've thought a fair bit about this too. It wasn't just an average-sized bundle - pants, shirt, etc. It was likely quite bulky, maybe even padded. It would have been large, especially if boots and helmet were discarded. For that reason, my personal guess is it's somewhere pretty remote rather than nearby. There were folks on the SW list that had a large window of time following the murder to dispose of evidence.
I've been thinking about this, too. And, some questions come to mind with each scenario. If Swatperp ambushed Missy at about 4:20 per timeline, yet was presumably off the immediate property by 4:35 when first camper arrived, then the short time period also raises questions:
- If he killed her between 4:20 and 4:25, you'd think he'd not waste any time fleeing the crime scene, as he wouldn't necessarily know if a camper (like Camper 1) would arrive early. I'd also think that a perp who went to this much trouble to disguise his identity and protect himself from DNA evidence would not be sloppy about SWAT gear removal and disposal, in spite of the tight time frame.
Some exit scenarios:
I. unknown car is still in parking lot and he runs out of the building to that car and leaves (with or without accomplice who may have been lookout). If accomplice is driving, he changes out his SWAT clothes in car and they possibly ditch the clothing as they drive away.
Questions to address with car exit scenario:
1. We aren't told by LE if the unknown "car seen parked in the distance" on a video feed (church's or gunshop's??) is actually a car seen parked in the church lot, or a street, or wherever...nor do we know if that car was still parked there at the time of Missy's murder. If that car is relevant, is it perp's car or an accomplice's car? Could it be a drop-off and maybe a lookout car, but not a getaway car? Does the presence of an unknown car at some point in the video feed mean the unknown car had to be there from 3:50am until her murder, and therefore must also be a getaway car?
2. If the car WAS parked in the church lot, and if it WAS seen parked there after Missy enters the building at 4:18, was it a getaway car? If so, then with regards to the tight timeline we have this to consider if it is used as a getaway car:
- Swatperp has now contaminated getaway car with crime scene DNA by jumping into car for speedy getaway
- Swatperp (if driving, without accomplice) can't change out of swat gear until reaching next destination (which means more contamination at new site if it's a building or home)
- Swatperp risks being seen on area surveillance cameras anywhere along the route to his next destination - and at 4:30 AM, not many cars would be out, making it relatively easier to track down the ones which ARE seen at that hour
II. Swatperp exits via motorbike or bike hidden on church property.
Notes:
1. He'd be riding in swat gear, though if he ripped off police labels, that might not merit a second glance if seen on the road. But surveillance cams might also pick him up as with the car scenario.
2. if riding away on the off-road trails on north side of the church, it would be muddy and tricky (particularly if on bike) though not necessarily impossible. But at some point perp would still have to make his way to a road due to rural property lines having barbed wire fences.
III. Swatperp exits on foot.
Notes about this scenario:
1. Swatperp could follow the creek line north of the church for a couple miles without dealing with residential barb-wire fencing issue.
2. Swatperp could also use creek (depending on depth or rushing water) to rinse off some crime scene DNA and/or stop human scent (if dogs happened to be used for tracking).
3. Swatperp is far enough away from rural residences north of the church that even if homeowners' dogs barked, the owners wouldn't see anything if Swatperp is walking in dark swat uniform in the dense forestation along the creek line.
4. Even if Swatperp
walks the entire time of his getaway, he can cover at least 2 miles by the time LE even arrives at the crime scene approximately 45 minutes after it's surmised MB was attacked and left for dead (approx. 4:20 to 4:35). And even if Swatperp was killing her as late as 4:45, he still had a 30-minute jump on escape by foot. Even a mile can be covered in that amount of time.
5. If Swatperp strips down somewhere along the creek line and puts the SWAT gear and some rocks in a folded up bag (perhaps carried in a compartment of his gear), and dumps the weighted bag in an area pond or reservoir, he can then emerge and enter the roadways wearing 'jogging clothes' and wet sneakers, and continue on to his morning destination. Which 'jogger' would not necessarily cause suspicion if seen by locals or even the emergency responders who may have even passed him on the road going or coming from the crime scene. (And who I hope have been asked.)
6. Swat person has then dealt with risks of crime scene DNA contamination, area video surveillance, and swat gear disposal.
I cannot be any more specific about this scenario, my POI, and my POI's destination without breaking TOS, but I've played this over in my head for 3 weeks, now, and it truly would work within the timeframe. Obviously I think Swatperp is a local, familiar with the area, and also fit enough to hike along a creek line for his escape route. Perhaps even a local sometimes seen fishing at an area reservoir, or one who might know of a rowboat out there used for that purpose in the mornings. And a local whose usual Monday morning destination is within less than a 5 mile radius of the Creekside Church.