What are everyone’s theories?
This is a classic "Missing on a Night Out" case - a recognised phenomenon involving young men, booze/drugs and water.
I'd say 50/50 he went into the water or he wandered out beyond CCTV coverage and came to grief on his way home.
There's been a tendency in recent years to see: young man on a night out + booze/drugs + water = pusher. There have been a
very small number of substantiated "pusher" cases in the UK (mostly on the Tube) but nowhere near enough to suggest that this is a widespread phenomenon or a common factor in young men dying or disappearing on a night out. Frankly, tanked up young men are perfectly capable of getting themselves into dangerous situations without third party involvement but the "pusher"/third party idea is a popular one because it helps to absolve the young man concerned of making stupid decisions - something which is particularly attractive to their families.
Somebody up-thread commented that the route he took alongside Cumberland Basin looked dangerous, dodgy or whatever. However, statistically it's not.
Look at these local crime stats for March 2024 when Jack went missing:
https://www.police.uk/pu/your-area/avon-somerset-constabulary/harbourside-and-hotwells/
They show that March was the quietest month for crime in the area in the past 12 months. Let's home in on the area around Cumberland Basin for March:
Let's exclude vehicle crime which is not relevant in this case. This leaves us with a handful of:
- public order offences, ie drunk/drugged and disorderly - people under the influence shouting things at or harassing passers by;
- criminal damage, eg someone chucking a brick through a pub window;
- a few thefts (not necessarily street thefts); and
- violence and sexual offences.
Sexual offences in this context covering
all sexual offences, not only sexual assault. It also covers possession of child sexual abuse or other images, sending unwanted d*ck pics and flashing amongst other offences.
Violence would cover actual assault or threatening behaviour, but also someone with mental health difficulties pushing someone else off their bike.
As such, the stats show that this is not the risky area some have assumed. Jack would have been extremely unlucky to have been subject to a violent attack in this area, even at 3.15am.
