Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #15

[StillDiggin]

#MISSING | Have you seen Nicola Bulley, who has gone missing from home in Inskip?

Nicola, 45, was last seen at around 9.15am today (Friday, January 27th) on the footpath by the river off Garstang Road in St Michael’s on Wyre.

She is described as white, 5ft 3ins tall, with light brown shoulder-length hair. She speaks with an Essex accent.

She was last seen wearing a long black gilet jacket with a hood, black jeans and olive green ankle wellies. Her hair was tied into a ponytail.

Immediately prior to going missing she was walking her dog, described as a brown-coloured Spaniel. Although the dog has since been found close to where we believe Nicola was last seen, we hope this might help jog the memory of anybody who saw her at around the same time and who may have information about where she was going.
Lancashire Police

Nicola Jane Bulley FB page
Nikki Bulley - Mortgage Adviser - FB page
Nikki Bulley - Strava Runner Profile page


Media, Maps & Timeline *NO DISCUSSION* THREAD

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3 Feb 2023​

 

[Sillybilly]

Please continue discussion here.

All members are expected to familiarize themselves with Websleuths rules found here, and also linked in my signature.

We aren't going to reinvent the wheel by repeat posting of all the rules, reminders, the Dos and Don'ts.

Additionally, links to and discussion of fundraising is not allowed unless it is a fundraiser run by close friends or family AND even then, the only thing allowed is a possible snippet of a previously unknown fact regarding the specifics of the case itself (i.e. wearing black sneakers, or ??). The actual $ figures and how it is progressing or not are off limits.

 

[Sillybilly]

ADMIN NOTE:

LE has now indicated that NB was deemed high risk "following the information that was provided to the police by her partner Paul and based on a number of specific vulnerabilities that we were made aware of" LE themselves have opened up speculation in regard to personal reasons NB may have disappeared.

Additionally, a reporter has indicated they are aware of what those vulnerabilities are, so we do now know they exist. The fact that LE has specified they exist but is not addressing them further is certainly not going to discourage speculation as to what may have happened. Had they said nothing in that regard, it would be status quo here at WS, but based on their comments, we are opening up discussion of the possibility that NB may have disappeared voluntarily or possibly committed suicide.

Discussion and speculation of what those vulnerabilities may consist of or what they may have resulted in (i.e. voluntarily missing or suicide) is allowed but at all times members must remain respectful and refrain from unnecessary graphic details of what you think may have happened.

Any questions, please use the Report feature to ask and we will try to get back to you as soon as possible.

 

[Sillybilly]

ADMIN NOTE:

LE has now indicated that NB was deemed high risk "following the information that was provided to the police by her partner Paul and based on a number of specific vulnerabilities that we were made aware of" LE themselves have opened up speculation in regard to personal reasons NB may have disappeared.

Additionally, a reporter has indicated they are aware of what those vulnerabilities are, so we do now know they exist. The fact that LE has specified they exist but is not addressing them further is certainly not going to discourage speculation as to what may have happened. Had they said nothing in that regard, it would be status quo here at WS, but based on their comments, we are opening up discussion of the possibility that NB may have disappeared voluntarily or possibly committed suicide.

Discussion and speculation of what those vulnerabilities may consist of or what they may have resulted in (i.e. voluntarily missing or suicide) is allowed but at all times members must remain respectful and refrain from unnecessary graphic details of what you think may have happened.

Any questions, please use the Report feature to ask and we will try to get back to you as soon as possible.

While I was typing ^^ it seems LE was talking

Just adding after the fact that LE has obviously now released that those vulnerabilities are related specifically to alcohol and menopause.

But you folks already know that.

 

[Sillybilly]

ADMIN NOTE:

There have been far too many rude and personalizing comments we have had to remove from this discussion.

If members don't know how to post civilly, respectfully without making snide and flat-out rude comments toward others members, we can't help you understand.

From now on ZERO TOLERANCE. There will be a minimum 1 day Time Out for rudeness and personalizing.

 

[Kike76]

Occam’s razor states that she is in the water

Personally , I would ask Peter Faulding back to the river to do another deep dive because his strategy would have been totally different had he have been briefed about these vulnerabilities from the start .

I would have the scene re enacted in different ways by using a dummy mock up of her size and weight and height and put the exact clothes on her that she had on the day she disappeared and then when the river conditions are the same or similar to the river conditions on the day of her disappearance, I would use it to see how far it is likely to travel IF for example she has launched herself into the middle of the water.
This is also the more likely answer because her dog would have followed her scent on land as he was not tied up..

Sadly , I have dealt with many suicides of women in their 40/50’s , including my own mother. There are surprisingly a lot who do use water a the main method. We cannot comprehend that because we are not at their level and depth of despair and they are not in a rationale frame of mind by this stage.
Because of the nature of our coastline in the U.K. we do often have bodies and body parts that are washed up on shore around the country and again this is something that experts can generally predict using the flow rate of the river and the water depth and the weight etc … I was often called to such on Crosby and Southport beaches.
To answer your question, I think the family will have a good idea if they look at what her mental condition in recent months but understandably, HOPE, makes them look elsewhere. There’s a chance of her being found and finding out what happened to her . Unless of course she has decided to walk away from her current life and one day May return when she is mentally able to face her life and responsibilities again .

Your posts on this have been very thought provoking and interesting and it sounds like you have personal experience of this and I am sorry to hear that. What I would say is that suicide by drowning in the UK at least is not common at all (<5% of cases in males or females)... reference here from Office of National Statistics.

Suicides in the UK - Office for National Statistics

Registered deaths in the UK from suicide analysed by sex, age, area of usual residence of the deceased and suicide method.

www.ons.gov.uk

In addition, the police say she made a call to book a play date for her children shortly before her disappearance. This does not to me seem to be the action of someone who was in a suicidal frame of mind.

The Occam's razor point is well made which is all about the simplest, most parsimonious explanation being the most likely. I agree that Occam's razor would suggest she ended up in the water (rather than a convoluted explanation of an abduction, being forced to walk down a path into a vehicle, leaving the dog and phone behind and not being seen at any point by a dashcam or similar).
However, given that the extensive search of the river and that at this point is is unlikely she is currently in the water near the bench area, wouldn't Occam's razor suggest that she exited the water somewhere locally rather than the much less likely event of being swept away, over a weir, round the multiple river bends in a relatively slow moving river ?

When she first went missing, Occam's razor suggested she ended up in the water and would be found in the immediate area. However, following the search that is now demonstrably much less likely to be the case so the probability of her falling in AND remaining in the water in that area is much less.

I really think there is a good chance she got out on the South side of the river and may have walked away from the river edge in a hypothermic state for some distance which is why she has not yet been found. If she had exited on the North river bank in the local area she would probably have been able to summon help at the caravan site.

It is also plausible that she might have attempted to walk home from that side in a hypothermic state given that at that point she had lost her phone and car keys probably would not have worked or might have been lost in the water.

 

[Furore]

It’s so frustrating because of course you want the publicity exposure for a missing person but it does invite curiosity and speculation with such a mysterious case. The family have clearly been seriously bothered by the press’s comments and have written rebuttals or discussed rebuttals in interviews and you just think god they don’t need to be dealing with all this. The press have been incredibly iirresoonsible with their skewed reporting of only experts who disagree with superficial LE strategy and ones who are making a career out of television and media. Really sensationalist journalism. Just awful. The family probably feel backed into a corner.

I don’t work in LE at all but would be surprised if they did reveal details about NB without family discussion. There was no way out of keeping everything private with think given the high profile nature of this case.

I really do hope she is somewhere out there. I have family with variously difficult relationships with alcohol and post lockdown etc too is is one of those things that has massively increased.

My gut feeling is very much a planned disappearance or accident in river. She evidently had a lot going on bless her..

Really hope pF goes away now I’m not sure he can add much now to the search for NB and reunion with her loved ones.

 

[Sherl]

A question that bothers me in relation to possible suicide in this case is why would someone arrange a playdate just minutes before walking into a freezing cold river?

Just to add I think releasing the deeply personal information about Nicola was appalling and unnecessary. The SIO herself said in the press conference that publicising the specific details of NB's vulnerabilities would be inappropriate and yet just a few hours later...

IMO it done purely in defence of police strategy I.e. they suspect suicide which supports their primary hypothesis.

 

[WAWAW]

Accomplice/companion offering refuge.

I have a friend whose wife left for a period
Key elements-
Depression and Mental strain brought on by challenge of managing autistic son.
Elaborate exit meticulously planned with assistance from accomplice/companion.
Exit only after an evening of tidying and sorting kids to minimise burden on remaining parent.
No prior warning.
False reason given for going out for the evening.
No return, and then travel with accomplice/companion to another city.
Safe haven provided by accomplice/companion.
Eventual communication after many days.
Intention always to return after period of respite and escape.
Return.

Very plausible now in this case, but Willow is strong the pointer to accident IMO.

I actually think this is very plausible, but I actually think willow points more to your suggestion. I really can't see any scenario in which willow wouldn't go in the water after her if she went under. I can see how an accomplice could distract willow while she escaped

 

[Angleterre]

I would imagine she must have had a blood test to check her hormone levels (I’ve had one myself), otherwise her GP wouldn’t have prescribed her HRT. I’m not sure on this, but I thought HRT was only given when you’re actually menopausal, I didn’t know it was given if you’re peri-menopausal.

Whatever, her GP obviously has all her medical history.

I know you can’t go by the occasional photo on social media, but in the few photos I’ve seen, including recent ones where the family went to Center Parks looking idyllically happy, plus the fitness photos and Fitbit tracking she did, she certainly didn’t seem like she had a big drinking problem. She looked fit, healthy, well turned-out, fresh-faced and very happy.

Maybe this so-called drinking problem has been exaggerated? Some people think anyone who has, say, two glasses of wine a night has a drinking problem…so it could be all pulled out of proportion IMO.

My GP is also a menopausal specialist and she states that you can’t rely on a blood test For hormone results because your levels of oestrogen and progesterone can be higher one hour and Rock bottom the next so they are not reliable at all. She subscribes to the issue of any woman around the age of 40 onwards who has some of the following symptoms, is generally peri menopausal.
Also it’s important to note that not every woman does understand another woman who is suffering with the menopause because NOT EVERY woman suffers . Some sail through with no symptoms at all.

 

[guiser]

The National Crime Agency is a totally different force in itself and wouldn’t get involved in a missing person enquiry ???

Missing persons​

Our Missing Persons Unit is the UK national and international point of contact for all missing person and unidentified body cases. We're the only UK agency focused exclusively on missing people. We serve all UK police forces as well as overseas police agencies.

Missing persons

The role of the Missing Persons Unit We provide support and advice to police forces investigating missing person cases ...

www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk

According to the NCA website it would

 

[cottonweaver]

I guess this is how stable minded individuals think.

This is hard for me to share but here goes.
I went through a period in my late 20s living abroad of extreme loneliness and drinking to blackout point.
Now one day I woke up with a bad hangover, I took painkillers and my friend picked me up. I had a nap, woke up, took a different type of painkiller and got ready to go out and do it all over again.
We were in the pub and suddenly i had this very frightening sensation come over me that I had to find cold water to feel relief-I ran outside and it was about 30degrees +/- No water in sight. Panicked and ran back in, my only solution was the bathroom. I locked myself in a stall and then proceeded to soak my head and entire self using the hand held bidet shower thing-I flooded the ladies bathroom and walked out the bar soaked from head to toe.

To this day I cannot explain, how/why/where/ what. I dont know if this was a combination of alcohol and mixing pain killers in combination with underlying poor mental health (i was also trying to leave an abusive relationship at the time)
If there had been a lake, river, sea whatever id have gone into it and I think about that everyday.
A previous post someone mentioned about folk heading for water and it being a strange phenomenon had me wanting to share earlier but I held off till now.
Ive shared this with few and even though it was more than 10yrs ago theres still some “shame” In what happened that day.

So sorry PS8800, but glad you have shared it - and there should be no shame. and you're still here. Survivor!


( One of my oldest friends tried to kill herself twice, your account brings back memories . And two of my other friends partners were successful - tragically. eta - both males, one threw himself off the building he worked at, the other man hung himself in own home. I don't know if suicide methods are ' gendered' in some way but just noticed @infinit 's point

 

[EyeSpyU]

IMO

So I guess, unfortunately, suicide is back on the table?

If hypothetically she jumped from the bridge on Garstang Road, she may well have crossed over the weir...

I agree, I think if she did commit suicide she wouldn’t have just walked into the river where are the edge it was only about 2/3ft deep. I live in London and most suicides on the Thames are from people jumping off the bridges <modsnip>

 

[Angleterre]

This thread is going too fast
I can’t keep up with replying to everyone who comments back to me. If I miss a reply to you then apologies but I can’t type fast enough to answer your posts when you quote me and want a response

 

[cottonweaver]

Because how did they know the answers for to those questions two weeks ago - they couldn’t possibly have because they didn’t consider alternative theories and lacked a crime scene etc
The National Crime Agency is a totally different force in itself and wouldn’t get involved in a missing person enquiry ???

' Our Missing Persons Unit is the UK national and international point of contact for all missing person and unidentified body cases.
We're the only UK agency focused exclusively on missing people.
We serve all UK police forces as well as overseas police agencies.

The role of the Missing Persons Unit​

We provide support and advice to police forces investigating missing person cases and assist in the identification of bodies and remains.

Our extensive experience in dealing with missing person and unidentified body investigations provides an essential service to police forces and can help resolve cases that may otherwise remain outstanding. This can save police forces significant time and resources, and provide the friends and family of missing and unidentified persons with vital closure.'

Missing persons

The role of the Missing Persons Unit We provide support and advice to police forces investigating missing person cases ...

www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk

 

[Seattle1]

I doubt it. If she took an overdose where would she have gone? She never left the field.

Of course, you’ll now get those who will suggest it wasn’t a water bottle and was filled with alcohol instead. I actually don’t believe she was an alcoholic at all. She possibly had a couple of glasses of wine at night which some people could deem as being an alcoholic.

Respectfully, the statement by the police about significant issues with alcohol is not describing one that has a couple of glasses of wine.

Once an alcoholic, always an alcoholic. One only manages the disease-- one day at a time. MOO

A statement from the force later on Wednesday said: “Sadly, it is clear from speaking to Paul and the family that Nicola had in the past suffered with some significant issues with alcohol which were brought on by her ongoing struggles with the menopause and that these struggles had resurfaced over recent months.

MPs slam ‘deeply troubling’ police statement on Nicola Bulley

MPs have criticised Lancashire Police's “deeply troubling" decision to release information about missing Nicola Bulley's private life to the public. Yvette Cooper said she would be contacting Lancashire Police about the reasons for putting out the deeply personal statement. The Shadow Home...

sports.yahoo.com

 

[infinit]

Exactly - no one who's going out of their mind with despair is gonna risk throwing themselves in a fairly shallow river (yes, we all know about the 'deep hole') because the main and very obvious problem with that is in 5 minutes time I'm gona be just down there, soaking wet and cold, my dog is prob gonna jump in with me, I'll be covered in mud, my hair will be all slimy, I might break my arm, there's probably weird water creatures in there and all kinds of germs, there might be broken glass or bits of sharp metal, my wellie boots will probably fall of, and I'll have to yell for someone to help, how embarrassing. This is how us women think, end of.

Especially those of us who walk along riversides or canal banks regularly - we know people fall in and get out again not actually die or anything (yes I know one guy died 45 years ago).

https://lifesavingfoundation.ie/arc/publics/suicbydrown.pdf

This is an interesting read tl;dr that location doesn't match what is typical of intentional drownings in Ireland. Typically it's from a bridge or atleast a jump. Often they don't know how to swim. It doesn't match the most common times of day or of the week either.

It's also quite an uncommon method as it is in the UK.

Perhaps Nicola didn't follow convention. But it seems questionable at best

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

In her partner's interview on Channel 5 (can't post, copyright)
He mentioned that she was very organised that morning.

Males tend to sort things out before they commit suicide, which does make you wonder.

IMO

This kinda reads like you're saying he organised her suicide... :/
I know that's not what it means

 

[Normanly]

NB was classed as "high risk" and vulnerabilities mentioned right from the beginning:

2 Feb:

Police also told a news conference that Ms Bulley was listed as a "high risk" missing person due to a "number of specific vulnerabilities" after speaking to her partner Paul Ansell.

Senior investigating officer Detective Superintendent Rebecca Smith said that is "normal for a missing person with the information we were in possession of" - but refused to say what those vulnerabilities were.

Nicola Bulley: Nearly three weeks since dog walker vanished - what were her last movements before she disappeared?

Nearly three weeks since Nicola Bulley went missing police have said there remains no evidence there was a "criminal aspect or third party involvement" in her disappearance. Police also told a news conference that Ms Bulley was listed as a "high risk" missing person due to a "number of specific...

uk.news.yahoo.com

The link is a little confusing as it is dated 2 Feb but headline is nearly 3 weeks after she disappeared?

 

[cottonweaver]

NB was classed as "high risk" and vulnerabilities mentioned right from the beginning:

2 Feb:

Police also told a news conference that Ms Bulley was listed as a "high risk" missing person due to a "number of specific vulnerabilities" after speaking to her partner Paul Ansell.

Senior investigating officer Detective Superintendent Rebecca Smith said that is "normal for a missing person with the information we were in possession of" - but refused to say what those vulnerabilities were.

Nicola Bulley: Nearly three weeks since dog walker vanished - what were her last movements before she disappeared?

Nearly three weeks since Nicola Bulley went missing police have said there remains no evidence there was a "criminal aspect or third party involvement" in her disappearance. Police also told a news conference that Ms Bulley was listed as a "high risk" missing person due to a "number of specific...

uk.news.yahoo.com

That is so weird!
Am going to have to watch that entire Feb 3rd press conference again to see what Riley said vs what the SIO said about the same topic. ( will do it tomorrow)