Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #6

[WestLondoner]

The choice of search area seems rational. If she fell in and was still somewhere upstream of the weir she would have been found by now; therefore she must have got past the weir, in which case the search area is of a more daunting size.

 

[Grouse]

I have a bit of experience researching old maps and if you're still looking for some help with this later today I'll definitely assist.

Edited to say - hopefully this works and should give you something to start off with, however from that specific map it doesn't look like much was in the fields themselves, will have to look more thoroughly later when I have time, and go through each map individually

Georeferenced Maps - Map images - National Library of Scotland

I was going to post similar, still catching up on the thread. I use those side-by-side maps a lot they are great.

The only thing I have spotted so far is a drain marked on the 1:10000 1949-1972 map -> link here

Seems the so called "abandoned house" opposite has been known as "The Old House" since the 19th century - must be very old so not surprised if renovations have been taking a long time.

 

[supersleuth123]

The choice of search area seems rational. If she fell in and was still somewhere upstream of the weir she would have been found by now; therefore she must have got past the weir, in which case the search area is of a more daunting size.

Yeah I see what you're saying, but given the head of the dive team was on TV boasting about how usually people are found very close to where they're believed to have gone in, it does seem slightly strange that they're starting a good few hundred meters below that point. To me, it makes way more sense to do the smaller area (above the weir) first, rule that out, and then say "OK, she must be in the large area below the weir". But what do i know.

 

[CriLondon]

They are about 20 meters after the weir, which is creating the appearance of a faster current. It's pretty much just because a load of water has just come over and down a shallow weir, which increases its speed.

Thank you for this , so it's just "ripple" from the weir ?
Just saying because in any other videos i didn't notice such movement.

 

[cottonweaver]

It's interesting that the SIG dive team appears to be entering the water below the weir.

Could that mean that they're focussing on that stretch because the North West underwater unit already 'eliminated' the stretch upstream ( nearer the bench) ?

I'd expected them to go from the bench and work downstream, just based on what Peter Faulding has said on TV over the last few days

edited to add link for that ^ :

'“when a person drowns and are left a couple of days, they don't move far..”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622137717499772930

 

[SanT88]

I hope they search upstream and not just below the weir. I’m sure there’s rational decision making going on but to completely eliminate all possibilities surely they’ll go back up and look at the exact point where the police believe she may have entered the water near the bench befor the weir.

 

[JeremyBentham]

Yeah I see what you're saying, but given the head of the dive team was on TV boasting about how usually people are found very close to where they're believed to have gone in, it does seem slightly strange that they're starting a good few hundred meters below that point. To me, it makes way more sense to do the smaller area (above the weir) first, rule that out, and then say "OK, she must be in the large area below the weir". But what do i know.

Yeah, same. They surely must check the initial area up by the bench (right?). They know what they're doing. Just interesting to see the thought process and how they work.

 

[WestLondoner]

Yeah I see what you're saying, but given the head of the dive team was on TV boasting about how usually people are found very close to where they're believed to have gone in, it does seem slightly strange that they're starting a good few hundred meters below that point. To me, it makes way more sense to do the smaller area (above the weir) first, rule that out, and then say "OK, she must be in the large area below the weir". But what do i know.

Given that the distance from bench to weir is comparatively small, you'd think that area would have already been thoroughly covered. Assuming this is so, or perhaps by elimination, you're left with the area beyond the weir - I suppose.

 

[martinwatts5]

just checked the new media links-only thread

police interview 30th Jan

'Police - No, the dog was loose and the dog was between the river and the bench.'

UK - Nicola Bulley, St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire), Jan 27, 2023 *MEDIA, MAPS, & TIMELINES - NO DISCUSSION*

#MISSING | Have you seen Nicola Bulley, who has gone missing from home in Inskip? Nicola, 45, was last seen at around 9.15am today (Friday, January 27th) on the footpath by the river off Garstang Road in St Michael’s on Wyre. She is described as white, 5ft 3ins tall, with light brown...

www.websleuths.com

The information on this has changed so is therefore unreliable but in my opinion if we can be certain that the dog was running between the water and the bench it gives a strong clue as to what happened.

 

[supersleuth123]

Thank you for this , so it's just "ripple" from the weir ?
Just saying because in any other videos i didn't notice such movement.

Yes, that's how I interpret it. <modsnip - copyright violation, no link to the photo>

 

[ginnyw]

More details on today's search here:

How a specialist diving team is searching for missing Nicola Bulley with high-spec sonar

Peter Faulding, who leads Specialist Group International, is leading a crack team of six using high-frequency sonar to trawl the River Wyre in Lancashire in a bid to locate the mother-of-two

inews.co.uk

 

[longtimelurker21]

Well put I’ve thought about this throughout the thread but couldn’t put to words quite as succinct at above.

My dogs bark at their own reflection and at animals on tv. They go crazy even at cartoon dogs.

 

[JeremyBentham]

Could that mean that they're focussing on that stretch because the North West underwater unit already 'eliminated' the stretch upstream ( nearer the bench) ?

I'd expected them to go from the bench and work downstream, just based on what Peter Faulding has said on TV over the last few days

edited to add link for that ^ :

'“when a person drowns and are left a couple of days, they don't move far..”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622137717499772930

You'd hope they don't exclude an area based on what the other equipment found or didn't find. The point of this equipment is that it is better at detecting objects. The equipment is here. Use it to examine the area as if it is a day 1 search. Guess we'll see.

 

[cottonweaver]

Am not a canoeist or a fisherman so IDK how to interpret the stats - so many variables but looks like average flow rate of Wyre is 0.4 cubic metres per second. ( obviously that's not the faster rate as it goes over steeper gradients, weir etc)

River Wyre at Garstang: River level and flood alerts

River levels and flood alerts for the River Wyre at Garstang, Lancashire

riverlevels.uk

in old money that's 14.13 ft³/s according to:

Convert Volumetric flow rate, Cubic meters per second

Use this easy tool to quickly convert Cubic meters per second as a unit of Volumetric flow rate

www.convertworld.com

(other factors are what we posted on the last thread - buoyancy factors of clothing & physique and natural eddies & holes in the river bed plus obstructions etc . Sorry, can't unbold the text)

 

[JeremyBentham]

More details on today's search here:

How a specialist diving team is searching for missing Nicola Bulley with high-spec sonar

Peter Faulding, who leads Specialist Group International, is leading a crack team of six using high-frequency sonar to trawl the River Wyre in Lancashire in a bid to locate the mother-of-two

inews.co.uk

Thanks. From that link:

- With the ability to cover up to 10 miles a day, the team’s powerful sonar can scan an underwater area up to 60-metres in width, but the winding River Wyre “might present a few challenges”.

“We can scan up to 60-metres wide. This is quite a narrow river. When we go down the middle of the river we can scan to each bank.

“Our sonar will see through black murky water, it doesn’t make any difference to the clarity, we still get a crystal clear image.”

While parts of the river are tidal, he rejected suggestions that somebody who fell in the river could be washed out to sea.

 

[oushkaboo]

I'd just like to give my view on the Teams call.
Right now I am on a Teams meeting. I'm muted and have my camera off.
This meeting started at 11am. I am working from home today. In the time I've been on this meeting I have caught up on this thread, popped over the road for milk and watched the last ten mins of a tv show I fell asleep to last night.
I could walk the dog, take a shower etc and that's perfectly normal, a lot of the meetings my company have are not for everyone to join in, but we are expected to listen, I can interject if I need or want to but tbh 2 years of enforced wfh has made me more selective in what I get involved in. I often prep dinner or make lunch with meetings on my phone or laptop nearby. I have occassionally even been connected while in my car.
We also have a daily teams call, at 9.15am for 15 mins where all staff in my building (about 40 of us) check in and update everyone on anything relevant. I always attend this but rarely join in as my role isn't managed or of any consideration to my workmates; so the Teams call thing is not at all relevant, except to say that NB was where she was seen to be and going about her usual routine.
I don't think this is in anyway suggestive that anyone but NB sent the email/joined the meeting.
NB was witnessed walking her dog by several people.

 

[LastSeenWearing]

It's interesting that the SIG dive team appears to be entering the water below the weir.

I was hoping they might enter nearer to the weir as I doubt whether the police diving team have been able to search that far. They will have concentrated their efforts near the bench. Nicola could have gone much further downstream. By starting at the furthest out point and moving towards the bench they won't miss the body if it's already travelled quite quickly. They do not want to miss it and it travels out into the sea past the weir.

 

[Firstsnow4]

Private diving team search for Nicola Bulley | Private diving team Specialist Group International, led by forensic expert Peter Faulding, will help police search for Ms Bulley, who vanished while... | By Lancs Live | Facebook

Private diving team Specialist Group International, led by forensic expert Peter Faulding, will help police search for Ms Bulley, who vanished while...

fb.watch

Live stream of the search with the specialist team on lancs live.

Was just watching that - looked like they were about to go then the man points to something in the river and they all get out?! Hope not found something already.

 

[Allabouttrial]

The information on this has changed so is therefore unreliable but in my opinion if we can be certain that the dog was running between the water and the bench it gives a strong clue as to what happened.

Can you point me in the direction of where this info. has been changed please?

 

[JeremyBentham]

Was just watching that - looked like they were about to go then the man points to something in the river and they all get out?! Hope not found something already.

The live stream also seems to have ended and they were all off the boat towards the end.