Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #8

[I wonder]

Forgive my ignorance, but why was NB treated as a "high risk missing person" from the get-go? There would have had to have been a reason for this.

The National College of Policing guidelines on missing persons "classification" is as follows:

- No apparent risk (absent): Actions to locate the subject and/or gather further information should be agreed with the informant and a latest review time set to reassess the risk.

- Low risk: Proportionate enquiries should be carried out to ensure that the individual has not come to harm.

- Medium risk: This category requires an active and measured response by the police and other agencies in order to trace the missing person and support the person reporting.

- High risk: This category almost always requires the immediate deployment of police resources – action may be delayed in exceptional circumstances, such as searching water or forested areas during hours of darkness. A member of the senior management team must be involved in the examination of initial lines of enquiry and approval of appropriate staffing levels. Such cases should lead to the appointment of an investigating officer (IO) and possibly an SIO, and a police search adviser (PolSA). There should be a press/media strategy and/or close contact with outside agencies. Family support should be put in place where appropriate. The MPB should be notified of the case without undue delay. Children’s services must also be notified immediately if the person is under 18.

The response on Jan 27 was quite clearly a "High risk" response, and there must have been a reason for this.

Missing persons | College of Policing

This page is from APP, the official source of professional practice for policing.

www.college.police.uk

It looked from the start that the river was likely to be a factor. In February in the UK, that’s about as high risk as it gets. Additionally a woman on her own disappears in a relatively rural area. Anyone would say this was seriously worrying, which in police speak means ‘High Risk.’

It’s that simple.

 

[3point5]

As an aside, I've taken part in 'Super Recogniser' research/tasks for years, for what it's worth (not a great deal possibly), and compare CCTV images frequently. These don't look particularly the same to me, at a glance, but I do see the aforementioned fleeting similarity. MOO.

Im very jealous of your skill! I've always wanted to be wired that way, but I'm the complete opposite. I once introduced myself to a mates son again. I'd known him 3 years but he'd just put his glasses on for the first time. I was mortified!

The experts seem certain she isn’t in the river.

One expert seems certain she's not in the river. The other diving experts still clearly believe its possible.

It’s important, because this is what everyone is using as a reference for NB’s clothing on the day of disappearance. This image contradicts what the police had originally stated she was wearing, which included, most notably, an “ankle-length gilet”. So if this image is NOT of NB from 27 Jan, then it’s a serious piece of false evidence.

If you saw someone marching her description, bar the gilet stopping 4 inches above where police said it would, would that be enough for you to not report it?

Her family will have given the police a description of what she was wearing that day. The police released it. Once they saw the cctv image, they updated the description.

 

[Purplepixii]

So are you saying she may have done this before? I did note in the very first original presser that the policewoman paused for quite a long period when asked about the question ‘would you say this is out of character?’ 6.25 in the video below.

Oooh nice catch, and the answer given was a redirection instead of a straight yes or no. Hmmm.

 

[cottonweaver]

Having watched it unfold I do think the police are not telling the whole story, if the national crime agency are involved they could be looking at things that are cyber related not just the dash cam footage.

The police could be using the river as a decoy, but actually have information on the where-about of Nikki therefore don't want to risk thwarting the investigation if there is possibly of third party involvement.

But it's all very bizarre that they didn't seal off the chair as that is essentially a crime scene, which makes me think they already have information. My suspicion is that she's not in the water and this was pre-planned that's why it's sometimes important not to always publish your whereabouts on Facebook, all it takes is to someone to watch Nikki's movements over time and what area's don't have CCTV.

NCA were involved in order to review that LancsPoice were on the right lines, so to speak

she explained that yesterday ( basically ' check my work' peer review thing that an open-minded, professional team might be interested in)

Found Deceased - UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #7

No. I should apologise here. I am new to this forum and I failed to add IMO after the statement. I have no knowledge about this whatsoever and my suggestion the dog harness may have been in the River was speculation. Sorry if it appeared to be factual. I did not intend this and will be more...

www.websleuths.com

 

[NextSprint]

Yes I agree and this was their response, so was it the circumstances of a phone, harness, dog,near water was the red flag or something family member said to the police that gave them reason to respond in this way. Iam guessing it was what was told to them in addition to the main details. IMO

I agree. Something in the background details rather than the circumstances. IMO.

 

[kittythehare]

Sally Riley said yesterday that LE are updating the family every single day. *

Now if I was a casual observer I might have mistakenly got the impression from that interview '..... and it's upsetting for me dealing with the family....' that LE are not in regular contact with the family.


* Link 'Her family continues to be supported by specially trained officers who update the family daily and support them in other ways.' UK - UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #7

Quite.

 

[Wishingwell]

Apologise if this has already been asked, but does anyone know if the weir would have been there 45 years ago when the boy that drowned there was found 2 months later?

https://www.lep.co.uk/news/nicola-bulley-we-know-her-familys-pain-say-preston-family-who-lost-a-son-in-the-same-stretch-of-river-on-the-same-day-45-years-ago-4019028

 

[NextSprint]

cause the proximity to that river bank with a big sign saying 'Danger!' is probably a high risk scenario ( A high risk of coming to harm)

Presser states that this was signed off by the National Police Search Advisor and the National Crime Agency

But those guidelines are about how officers judge a missing person's level of risk, rather than the circumstances of the going missing.

 

[Newforestdetec22]

It is interesting.

Has this exact area been searched yet do we know?

It is interesting.

 

[Dixie007]

If the police are using the river searches as a kind of distraction, as mentioned in post above, then they should be very grateful for all the multitude of additional distractions caused by the sonar searches! I am not critical of PF in the slightest and admire his input and commitment.
All in my opinion.

 

[I wonder]

You would have thought that the police would have been all over this already, and asking that exact question again and again.IMO

I don’t know what the police are doing about whether people are recognising the dog or the person, but I raised it several threads ago and I’m sure others must have, so on here at least, people keep asking that exact question again and again and again and again and again etc etc!

 

[Lincolnshirelad]

Has this exact area been searched yet do we know?

Yep, multiple times, they had an event other day when they rushed there and it was nothing. Also people have mentioned drones being in the air (also mentioned here)

 

[Beginnersleuth]

Apologise if this has already been asked, but does anyone know if the weir would have been there 45 years ago when the boy that drowned there was found 2 months later?

https://www.lep.co.uk/news/nicola-bulley-we-know-her-familys-pain-say-preston-family-who-lost-a-son-in-the-same-stretch-of-river-on-the-same-day-45-years-ago-4019028

It’s says:
“I've seen the TV pictures of the river near where Nicola went missing and it doesn't look that deep or fast-flowing. But I've also looked on a website which charts river levels and there had been a spike on January 26, the day before she vanished.
"I think the river conditions were pretty similar when Roger went missing and he was obviously swept over the weir and into the tidal part of the river. He has found near Shard Bridge which is a fair distance away from St Michael's.”

 

[ginnyw]

TBF once he got the go-ahead, he did say he'd spend 3 or 4 days down there.

I think PF has been good - he's done exactly what it said on the tin, as it were. He never thought NB was in the river in the first place, but said that if she was, he'd find her. He hasn't found her in the place where police thought she went in and he previously said that if NB HAD gone in near that bench, she wouldn't have moved very far from that spot, so he'd have found her. He hasn't. So his initial hunch proves to be correct. He's given his services free to the family and offered them support. He's a kind, experienced man who got out there and did what he said he was going to do. IMO. Well, guess it's back to the police now. What a case. I can't get on with anything.

 

[cottonweaver]

But those guidelines are about how officers judge a missing person's level of risk, rather than the circumstances of the going missing.

you pasted
'High risk: This category almost always requires the immediate deployment of police resources – action may be delayed in exceptional circumstances, such as searching water or forested areas during hours of darkness.'

that was enough for them to decide it was a High Risk misper case without taking into account circumstances. ( Circumstances not exactly clear at the moment. IIRC there was immediate deployment of resources)

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

Dependant where down or up river she managed to get out. She could have managed to get out on the complete opposite bank of the dog out of sight. Theory again but highly plausible.

A man went missing walking home along the banks of the River Hull in December. He did not fall in the water but succumbed to cold weather and was found in a nearby farmer's field (hypothermia). He was a regular dog walker along those banks and knew the area well. If NB did fall in the water, yes, she could have got out elsewhere (e.g. hypothermia).

Tragedy of Jamie Scott who died walking home in sub-zero temperatures

Tributes describe Jamie as a fantastic grandad and a kind-hearted dog lover

www.hulldailymail.co.uk

 

[guruagain]

Actually found on a sand bank several miles down river I think, not nearby. Having passed over the weir.

This does seem to be a fairly useful reference point for understanding the river flow and how this case might play out to a conclusion.

Important information, in my view.

We don't know if the weir was there 45 years ago - edit or if it hasn't been altered in that time.

 

[Sjöberg]

would not have willingly created so much un-clarity and searching for her daughters

Willingly, of course not. Sometimes we loose the will & that cannot make sense to others or even that same person outside that condition.

 

[kittythehare]

Has this exact area been searched yet do we know?

Which location?

 

[NextSprint]

It looked from the start that the river was likely to be a factor. In February in the UK, that’s about as high risk as it gets. Additionally a woman on her own disappears in a relatively rural area. Anyone would say this was seriously worrying, which in police speak means ‘High Risk.’

It’s that simple.

Respectfully it is not that simple.

Look at how another police force explains how it assesses "risk level" in missing persons. It is about the person, not the circumstances:

How we assess the level of risk:​

We will assess the level of risk by building up as accurate a picture of the person and their personal circumstances as possible. To do this we will take in to account such things as:

• the person’s age
  
• whether they need essential medication or treatment
  
• whether they are on the Child Protection Register.

We will also consider the circumstances of the disappearance, such as whether:

• the disappearance is out of character
  
• there is a suspicion of murder
  
• the missing person has financial, employment or relationship problems.

Missing People

To report a missing person, fill in our online form or call 101. If it is an emergency and you feel that the missing person may be at risk of immediate harm, dial 999. There is no time limit on when you can report a missing person – you don’t have to wait 24 hours.

www.norfolk.police.uk