Ok maybe you should skip this post b/c it is long and gas-baggy of me, (and what else is new) But I really want to know what you guys think of this cuz it's buggin me.
Could there be a confounding element at hand? Well, wait a sec.
Some things I want to ask you guys before I go into these thoughts below.
How far is her school (VT) from JMU? (the friend's school where she left her car and had told her parents she would spend Sat night)
How far is her parents home from her school, VT?
How far is her parents home from JMU?
How far is JMU from Charlottesville?
I've read that JMU (harrisonburg) is 60 minutes drive from C'ville where the arena is. (b/c southerners dont talk miles; we talk minutes hee.) (Altho if you're driving at a speed of 60 MPH - same diff right?)
* Hypothetical scenario 1 - ROMEO the good guy
Let me back - up. OK from the friends behavior, even tho they haven't said publicly, to me this situation could possibly smack of Morgan telling the friends, "I told the 'rents (aka parents) that I'm spending the night with you at JMU but I'll really be with ____ fill-in-dude's-name-here. Ya'll go ahead back to JMU and y'all play along with that story for cover while I have a sleepover with Romeo___ fill-in-dude's-name here. He'll drive me back to JMU. Or I have some way back to JMU where my car is."
I call him Romeo... as in someone she "knows" and in this scenario he has no intent to harm her. This would satisfy a good friend's questions, make her/them not really "worry" or freak out; and if this were the deal I don't find that suspcious; and it would conveniently also explain most of the friends actions (as far as we've been allowed by LE to know the bits and pieces) (unless I missed something which is why I'm telling you guys, so you can find the holes in this.) Plus as
C6 pointed out, she was taking a lot of care in what she was wearing, choosing the outfit etc and it sounds hot - like for a date mentality rather than merely a girls night out.
So I was wondering if there could be a confounding element at hand. If we go with that Romeo scenario hypothetically (just stay with me for a second) that leaves us with:
Nefarious Third Party Intervenes
Romeo dude is someone she "knows" somehow; Maybe he goes to JMU rather than her school, VT. If so, the 'rents woudln't necessarily know of him (if that's her goal b/c maybe they wouldn't approve or she thinks they wouldn't) Maybe he's a good enough dude with no intent to harm and he planned to meet her and they'd spend a night together; she agreed;
but maybe some other nefarious third party person/s intervened - hence the purse and phone strewn about - which is bad. Iow someone snatched her from Romeo, Romeo got away from perps and tried to get help for her, but failed. (b/c they usually want to take the girl and kill the dude unless dude escapes)
The Romeo dude should be outraged and go straight to LE... but there's some reason he feels he cant. IDK the reasons. Maybe he's stoned or worse? He has a strict family? He's terrifed of LE? or her dad? He thinks he'll be blamed and found guilty? He has a scholarship with weird stict stipulations and he thinks he'll lose it? Or he's a chicken schmuck? fill in the blank. Dude is too terrified of LE and Dad etc to come forward b/c he thinks this makes him look guilty and no one will believe him. Yes, he's s schmuck for not coming forward; and also you'd think the friends know who he is; but he may not know that they know. (?)
That's why I wondered how far JMU is from VT. I want to know if she visits JMU? Easy to meet guys if she's hanging out at the campus parties and the other girlfriend does attend school there.
HER CAR
Also, from the presser, she drove the first leg of the trip form VT to JMU. The roommate was with her presumably (?) on that first leg of the trip from VT to JMU? Then they switched cars to go the last leg of the trip form JMU to the arena. Why switch cars? maybe b/c she knew she wouldn't be going back to JMU with the other girls that night? But after the night of romanc, she planned to go back to her car and drive herself to her apt or parents' home. (Iow no fear of some other person being seen dropping her off) She could take roomy back to VT with her and it all looks good -- "guy-wise" for whoever she thinks is gonna know or notice with whom she returns. Altho she's 20 so her dates should be her business, but we already discussed the possible power dynamic at hand with the parents if they're paying for everything.
* Hypothetical Scenario 2 - ONLINE GUY aka OG
She "met" someone online, aka "Online Guy" aka OG for short and arranged to meet him a C'ville; the dude's a stranger and it all went bad from the get-go.
(Or an alternate but similar scenario, OG was nice, but a third nefarious party intervened in which case this is a twist on scenario number 1) But an online stranger sounds more dubious to me; and the margin for error is greater there imo. Yes, even good girls make mistakes and less than ideal judgment calls at times.
WHY CHARLOTTESVILLE???
For me, one of the problems (heh I have issues with my own theories) one of the problems with either of these concepts is why would she jump into this endeavor in C'ville - a town X miles away from her home where she's out of her comfort zone? Her friends are inside the arena and might as well be in China b/c they were not in contact with her after that one call.
Iow, if it were OG (aka "Online Guy") she could have met him on her turf at VT at a nearby coffee shop etc in her neighhborhood (without disclosing her home address for safety)
Why meet online guy at C'ville? Plus would you plan to
spend the night with OG if you had never met him in person? only online? (even if he seemed super online... still - that's pretty iffy.)
I mean...
it sounda like the friends were not concerned enough to report her missing even the next morning which tells me that she told them she planned to spend the night elsewhere. It was the dad who reported her missing when she didn't show up later in the day for the planned study session.
SLEEPOVER ARRANGMENTS
Or if it's Romeo, JMU boyfriend, (or even OG) she and Romeo (or OG) could have had "sleepovers" just about any time and mom and dad wouldn't have necessarily known about it. She lives off campus in a apt with one girlfriend, (not at home wth parents) so I dont see any reason why she couldn't spend the night with a guy if an overnight-er were the goal. Unless, maybe there is some weird reason that we are unaware of like dad's best friend from whenever is the apt manager and watches her like a hawk. Or does she have siblings? if like a brother lives in the same apt complex and watches her like a hawk. Iow is there some reason she feels she cant have a dude sleep over at her apt? But if that were so, then SHE could go to Romeo's place at JMU or wherever right? (unless he lives in a frat house and the frat houses I saw were NOT places I'd want to be for a romantic night)
And as far as the habit of calling home everyday, she has a cell phone; it's not like the old days when cell phones were expensive and not everyone and his granny had a cell phone; (so when you called home the 'rents could possibly know from where you're calling and surmise where you're spending your nights etc. which could blow your cover) Iow the daily calls home would't be a worry for her or put a kink in her sleepover plans - if she had any, that is.
In more other words, even if the whole concert, out of town, telling friends yadda yadda smacks of "guy-sleepover plans" it still doesn't quite make sense WHY. WHY THERE? ... why not on her turf? Or at least in her town? Or at least
closer to her turf at a more familiar place like at JMU where she knows at least SOMEONE? Why in C'ville where she presumably didnt' even know her way around? and didn't know people there.
I didn't say that well, but what I'm trying to get across to you guys so you can tell me what you think of it (or if it's hogwash heh) from what we have so far from the friends (or rather what LE is allowing us to have) imo ....
...It smacks of her planning, consenting, wanting to meet a dude for an over-nighter (either known Romeo or stranger OG) and somehing went terribly awry.
But my problem with my own theory is -- WHY? and WHY C'VILLE? and WHY THAT NIGHT? Was he so lame and non-liquid in the cash funds department that he lives in C'ville (or some other place but close to C'ville) and couldn't scare up the gas money, transportation etc to visit HER in her town for cryin out loud? (Que music to TLC's "Dont Want No Scrubs") That sounds pretty unappealing. (unless that was his ruse for a lure to get her away from everything and everyone and he had malicious intent from the start)
CONFOUNDING PARTS?
The possible confounding parts are: Could the guy be an OK guy, but there's a thrid party who messed it up for them? Or is he a stranger? (If there's a guy at all)
Another possible confounding part: Did someone else (other then the person reporting the purse and turning it in) find the purse first, do whatever with it, and then put it where it was found? Did the battery simply fall out or was it deliberately pulled out? Was the phone roughed up like it had been dropped? Was the battery found with the phone ? (just outside of it?)
Other possible confounding thing: Why did she leave the arena? She called the friend to say she couldn't get back in which sort of suggests to me that she didnt know she'd be locked out; And if she intended to meet a dude outside the arena, would she then CARE if she coudln't get back in? If the dude was the goal all along and not the concert? Unless he had a ticket too, but if so - that doesn't require HER to go outside
at all, but rather for
him to come IN.
Also a problem with my own theory heh is why tell your friend
on the phone that youd' "get a ride" if you had already planned to sleep elsewhere? I could see her contacting the friend by phone to say "yeah we hooked up; I dont need a ride.." iow verifying that she didn't get stood up or something weird like that. But then why did the friends wait "hours" for her at their car after the concert? in the dark... in the cold... in a strange town.... and when the other concert-goers would have presumably left the arena?
IDK. Sorry Im a gasbag. Now excuse me while my head explodes.
