WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #3

[90Nine]

How long do you think it would take to actually walk away from the van to dry land? Of course it was too dark to really see where they were going. But cold water causing unconsciousness in 15 minutes is making me wonder if they were just in the water too long.
Those keys out of the ignition are puzzling. Wasn't she running the heater from time to time.

the house who called in the 911 call the next morning was just about 300 feet from her. she had to have seen it when she drove down that hill. It was on the same property. the photos show that the home had the lights on, even during the day. I have a photo of that if you would like it. she only had to walk up from the beach to the house. then there were many homes west of the incident. her going east and hiking up to get to the home that said they heard the noise on the garage was a half mile away and not on the beach.

 

[sorrell skye]

In my case I am not sleuthing the guy and do not think he had anything to do with their disappearance directly. I am trying to get into the mind of SS.
to try to understand her actions that evening. It has to do with her mental state concerning him. I see clear signs of avoidance. He is a victim of circumstance as far as I am concerned.

I agree - I don't believe RS had anything directly to do with her disappearance.

I just wonder what may have happened prior to her leaving on Saturday, and what happened between Silverdale and after she arrived in Olympia, and seemingly got "lost" for so many unexplainable hours, especially so close to I-5.

 

[Beyond Belief]

Theres a real strong possibility this woman lost her life trying to save her 8 year old. Azriel weighed 100 lbs. Thats a lot of weight if she tried to carry her very frightened 8 yr old in cold water and in the pitch dark.

 

[90Nine]

You know both of these things how exactly? Really, I'm curious how you know that he didn't confront her about her drinking at some point.

Just theories...

 

[RubyRed]

This video gives good footage of the water, you can see how difficult it would be to navigate this cold water at night.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5B16wnF678&feature=player_embedded

 

[Beyond Belief]

The photo the other night that made the beach area look as if it, coming from the parked van, went up a hill, then down a hill. There were also some tree stumps on that ridge. If she turned on the headlights which i was informed could be done without putting the keys in, possible she followed the lite area. Anyway if she headed that way she could have stumbled down that hill.
The tire tracks are puzzling too. Which tracks were the tow trucks?
I know I am picking this a part but I want a reasonable idea of what she did.

 

[jmarple]

The problem with the beaches on Puget Sound and also much of the Washington coast is they are not gently sloping with a gradual path to the water. There are many steep banks requiring steps to climb or a single road coming to the water. I use the term "steps" loosely. Sometimes they are makeshift pieces of wood that is an adventure to climb up and down. Or in the case of my uncle's property which was south of Olympia near Shelton, there was a long winding path to the water and it washed out during the winter months. So, unless she knew exactly where that road was that brought her to the beach, they may have been trapped by high water and unable to get off the beach. Whenever we visited my uncle's place, we always had to be very alert for the tidal rise and not be too far down the beach to make it back to the path. It can be very scary in the daylight, I can only imagine what it would be like in the dark.

 

[sorrell skye]

I know this has been posted before, but it bears repeating.

http://www.kgw.com/news/local/Disappearance-of-Wash-family-vexes-police-87828912.html

History of abuse reports

Meanwhile, reports surfaced Friday that Shantina previously had been investigated for abusing and neglecting the boy.

Washington state Child Protective Services confirmed that it had received 10 complaints involving Smiley and her son over the past five years, and that three of the complaints had been investigated.

In March 2007, CPS investigated a complaint that Smiley had physically abused her son, but the complaint was closed as "unfounded."

In August 2007, the agency found that Smiley was negligent in caring for her son after she left him unsupervised while she was passed out from alcohol intoxication. The boy was placed under the care of relatives while Smiley received substance abuse treatment, then returned the next year to his mother's care.

Another referral was made to CPS in April 2009 about Carver "acting out" in school, but no details were immediately available. "We're still waiting to find out how much contact we had at this time," CPS spokeswoman Sherry Hill said.

 

[Beyond Belief]

I believe Azriel was 4 ft 2 inches. How far off the ground of that van, i believe a dodge caravan, from the gound to the bottom of the door level. Possibly where water would start leaking in.

 

[sorrell skye]

the house who called in the 911 call the next morning was just about 300 feet from her. she had to have seen it when she drove down that hill. It was on the same property. the photos show that the home had the lights on, even during the day. I have a photo of that if you would like it. she only had to walk up from the beach to the house. then there were many homes west of the incident. her going east and hiking up to get to the home that said they heard the noise on the garage was a half mile away and not on the beach.

Yes - with help so nearby, why wasn't help sought?

She had no problem stopping here, there, & everywhere earlier that night "asking for directions".

If she was truly stuck in the sand on the beach, why not go for help - the house was just up the gravel drive. In fact, she passed it on her way down to the beach, so she knew it was there, and knew where it was.

 

[Beyond Belief]

Jmarple, is the sand in that area made of broken shells or is muck that you would sink into?
The beach where Azriel was found looked like rocks. Rocks would be extremely slippery when wet i would think. IMO

 

[justme96]

I think RS knows more than what he is saying. She could have planned on meeting someone. It seems as if RS was not meant to go on this trip and he was trying to catch up with her.

The shoes that washed ashore were a womens size 9(RS ID'd, belonged to SS) and a Mens 13 (not ID'd).

Although in Eastern Washington, in Feb a seventeen year old goes missing and they find her car on a dead end with keys inside.

I think Police should look at her computer to see who she was talking to online and what kind of things have been said. There is much more going on with why these events happened.

Most of us don't think RS did anything but we sure feel like she was running from something. In one of the irst interviews he pleaded for them if they were out there to just come home and he wanted to marry her. My first thought on that was that she was running.

 

[90Nine]

the other thing i thought of today is that if the minivan had a dvd player (which was stated in media postings) did it also have a navigation system...

 

[RubyRed]

The articles I've read said the tide didn't get any higher than "the top of the seats."

It's been assumed that the sand on the windshield was due to the front tires spinning trying to get unstuck.

But it's also possible that the sand on the windshield was flung there by spinning donuts, since there were those circular patterns in the sand.

It's been said that maybe she did that to entertain Az & make him laugh.

Maybe she did that for another reason?

IIRC the water rose to 14.2 ft, so would definitely cover the van.

 

[houndstooth]

I believe Azriel was 4 ft 2 inches. How far off the ground of that van, i believe a dodge caravan, from the gound to the bottom of the door level. Possibly where water would start leaking in.

I just looked at the photos again and they appear to have less than 12 inches clearance. I see where the slide door was left all the way open on the left side and the hatch open also.
With them open, it would flood in quickly. And of course be much colder too. So I don't think they were just in there passed out trying to get some sleep. It appears not to have been dug into the sand, as I was thinking.
However it does look like tires maybe drifted on the bottom with the tide to the right somewhat.

Was the parking brake on? It is on a backward incline toward the water.

This is about 10:30 at night? It looks to me like she abandoned the vehicle for some reason. Several hours before the tide came in.

 

[sorrell skye]

Jmarple, is the sand in that area made of broken shells or is muck that you would sink into?
The beach where Azriel was found looked like rocks. Rocks would be extremely slippery when wet i would think. IMO

The beach rocks that are exposed at extremely low tide can be slippery, since they're underwater more than they're above water, and can be covered with algae. But beach rocks in general aren't particularly slippery - since they're not underwater constantly. I've hiked the Puget Sound beaches & the Olympic Peninsula beaches many times - at low tide & high. I've never lost my footing on beach rocks, except when I've been walking on the rocks that are only exposed at the lowest tide.

 

[RubyRed]

Yes - with help so nearby, why wasn't help sought?

She had no problem stopping here, there, & everywhere earlier that night "asking for directions".

If she was truly stuck in the sand on the beach, why not go for help - the house was just up the gravel drive. In fact, she passed it on her way down to the beach, so she knew it was there, and knew where it was.

I think they were sleeping and awoke to high tide, The shock of getting out in that cold water would take your breath away. The waves could knock you down and on top of that it was dark. Who knows if she even remembered the van was backed in. They could have went right into deep water, thinking they were heading towards shore. Add disorientation from sleeping and if alcohol is involved, it is a disaster in the making.

 

[RubyRed]

This gives an idea of the distance, from the van to where Azriel was found.


http://www.kirotv.com/news/22881089/detail.html#

 

[sorrell skye]

IIRC the water rose to 14.2 ft, so would definitely cover the van.

The 14.2 feet high tide isn't a vertical measurement. 14.2 feet vertically would literally be a tsunami.

ETA: What I meant to say is that the high tide measurement of 14.2 feet isn't how high the water would be at the shoreline at high tide.

 

[houndstooth]

IIRC the water rose to 14.2 ft, so would definitely cover the van.

A 14 foot tide change does not necessarily mean it was 14 feet higher where the van was. Just 14ft higher than the deepest part of the water at low tide. Then it radiates that water outward. The high water mark comes further inland gradually. It does not appear that the road is 14-20 feet above the beach level from photos so....It's conceivable that the van was only covered about halfway up the sides at that range.