WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #5

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Thanks revampz, and you're welcome!

I agree, it seems that something is being hidden. There are so many possibilities as to what was actually going on, too many strange things that went on that evening/night, IMO. Am hoping that LE will ask the hard questions and try to get to the bottom of each odd thing. Starting with the unaccounted for time in between the sightings of Shantina. And how did she manage to even find that narrow gravel pathway, let alone drive down it to the beach. Thinking of that is what makes me wonder if there wasn't a third party involved in some way. I don't want LE to simply close the case with an assumption that it was a tragedy simply due to alcohol. I think there's much much more involved, and if that can be found, it will likely bring more of an understanding to all.

Am hoping that if anyone knows of something that could help LE to figure out what happened, that the person/persons will come forward. No matter who they are or what info they may have.


wow myst....thank you for that link and the post on another forum directed to
Candy....

until I read that I was quite convinced that Shantina had been drinking and ended up on the beach and they both drowned by some form of disorientation, being trapped or something similar.....

but WHAT WAS THAT ALL ABOUT????????

I still dont think a third party is involved, but there is some dark secret being hidden......

something happened recently (and maybe this is what the post refers to) to set this woman off into seemingly losing control of her life again....
 
Thanks revampz, and you're welcome!

I agree, it seems that something is being hidden. There are so many possibilities as to what was actually going on, too many strange things that went on that evening/night, IMO. Am hoping that LE will ask the hard questions and try to get to the bottom of each odd thing. Starting with the unaccounted for time in between the sightings of Shantina. And how did she manage to even find that narrow gravel pathway, let alone drive down it to the beach. Thinking of that is what makes me wonder if there wasn't a third party involved in some way. I don't want LE to simply close the case with an assumption that it was a tragedy simply due to alcohol. I think there's much much more involved, and if that can be found, it will likely bring more of an understanding to all.

Am hoping that if anyone knows of something that could help LE to figure out what happened, that the person/persons will come forward. No matter who they are or what info they may have.

I think LE is definitely investigating. One of the last statements from them was that they were stopping the SAR efforts, but they are conducting an in-depth investigation on her phone calls, computer, friends, etc.. to find out what could have happened. I think they are just not releasing any information to the public right as to not let any suspects have that information.
 
Maybe someone did it for her, like a third-party-foul-play type person.

Maybe by someone who REALLY cared about the van.

One thing I haven't seen here, other than someone mentioning it once... is...

if she drove to the beach before or during high tide coming in, there shouldn't be tire tracks... IMO the water would've washed them away...

if she came after high tide, or when it was almost all receded there should be tire tracks.

In the picture shown in a few posts back, there appear to be tire tracks, and I wonder if those tracks were from her van, from a Sheriff's cruiser who went to investigate early in the morning, from the wrecker, or other vehicle.

Those are interesting thoughts. It does seem as though the tire tracks would be gone. I think there is also the weight factor, temp and how hard vs. soft the ground was. I think if it was more 'harder/muddy' vs 'soft' that it might still have the tracks. But otherwise, I don't know. IMO if someone did drive it down there in the morning, they would have had to have gotten out of the car and into the cold water to get back to dry land.

The one thing that continues to really stick in my mind are the keys, purse and overnight bag. If a third person/persons were involved, it is possible that they took them (probably did not see the wallet). I feel so strongly that either someone took them or SS has them and is still alive somewhere. But I do think these three items are key in this case. They have not washed up and should have.
 
Hi....have just been catching up and reading the last five or six pages....

1st of all that note put on the other forum to Candy has me convinced there is alot more going on in this family......maybe she was going to confront her stepfather about something....(i dont even want to think, what) and the bf knew about it as well....and this triggered the relapse and the wanting to drink that night......

maybe someone who is a member of that forum can ask the person who posted it what type of stuff they are refferring to.....

and since I have found out that stepdad didnt go to the memorial I am certain there is an underlying issue there.....

also someone has posted that she phoned her grandparents and JS.....can this be confirmed????? i am totally confused as to the location etc etc but she was going to drop in on him on the way back from Castle Rock.....does this mean that he lives around that area??????? could he maybe have met up with her somewhere????

thirdly.......that copper thing next to the lighter.......as an ex hooch smoker (not crack, no way hose) I have got to say that thing thing looks very suss......if it didnt have a hole in it, I wouldnt have looked twice..........but anything with a hole smack bang in the middle like that........someone said you put the rock on the hole.......you can also put a metal cone onto a hole like that......

without the hole I'd would say it was some type of small perfume dispenser or even breath spray..........maybe it has been damaged or banged around hence the hole......

Thanks for your post Vamp! PaulR posted some good info about the brass object possibly being a dummy CO2 cartridge. It sounds reasonable, especially with the pics of what a dummy CO2 cartridge looks like.

However, the pic of the mysterious "brass cylinder" found in the van & the pic of the dummy CO2 cartridge look a bit dissimilar.

The hole in the dummy CO2 cartridge looks larger than the hole in the mysterious "brass cylinder".

Also, why would someone toss a dummy CO2 cylinder in the car or glove compartment? It wouldn't be serving the purpose for which it was designed if it was just laying around unloaded (not in a paintball gun or BB gun or other device for which it was intended).
 
RS is wanting prayers for the safe return of SS on his photography facebook page, but then is giving directions to the church for the memorial service on the Prayers for SS facebook page. His mind has to be all over the place. Poor guy. :(
 
Shantina had everything going for her - she finished school, had a good job, engaged, loved her son, found sobriety.

What was so overwhelming and stressful to her that a relapse was triggered? What was so overwhelming that Shantina spent an entire evening avoiding her destination? Maybe that information is the key to understanding a great deal. MOO MHO
 
IF THE SHOE FITS : ALL THAT IS BELOW IS MERELY A THEORY !
(New Profiles, part X)


There's an old song with the lyric: “a girl in trouble is a temporary thing”
There's a slightly older song that goes: “i looked around & couldn't find an exit, so i'm making you into a door”


Getting back to our case,
The subsequent theme of her going in & out of mini-marts ostensibly seeking directions could then simply be a cover, to act-out the lie that she would have to tell her family that she'd simply gotten lost, periodically calling them every now & then, or trying to.
The Martin Way Diner incident can now be seen in a slightly different light. Now it might be considered perhaps that she was indeed running to something as opposed to the 'from' investigated earlier. He may well have asked her to follow him somewhere in the car. Their order wasn't ready yet (remember this is a diner, not Jack-in-the-Box or McDonald's), but he may have been motioning for her to move-it-along nevertheless. She, in a hurry & also quite nervous about what was to proceed (possibly low blood sugar by this point), stumbles & falls some before she gets to the car (there is always the chance that she was drugged to, but the combination of alcohol & little to eat should be enough).
How they pass the hours from that point, we don't know. A walk along the harbor? A visit to Priest Park? Maybe a tour of the churches? There are a lot to choose from in little Olympia. She may well be trying to back out of it by now. I wouldn't be surprised if her “woman's intuition” told her something is not quite right with this guy. At some point she may even decide 'to heck with it'. He may have to threaten her, not so much with bodily force as much as emotional pressure. But a veiled threat to the safety of her son is not outside the realm of possibility either. The Williams' house could also be seen within this context. She has to use a phone again to let her family not worry. He can't let her use his because that would give him away. He points out the Williams' house. It has a cross in the lawn.
At some point, either in one car or two, they arrive on the beach. Perhaps he chased her there. Maybe he simply led.
Azriel too might not have realized things were so terribly wrong until it was too late. But finally sensing something was indeed very wrong, he perhaps did what he could to try & help.
I still think it was him that frantically knocked on the Grimmer's door late that night. As I explained in last week's submissions, the Grimmer's reported a knock on their door at around 1:00 am. But they/we are unclear as to whether it was the new time (& hence midnight) or the old time (technically 1:00 am, since the clock doesn't jump forward until 2:00 & then from 2:00 to 3:00). My guess is that they set their clocks before going to bed & so it is the new time figure that is cited. This means that it was around midnight (old time), most likely just after, when they heard the knocks. If the Grimmer's had actually answered their door instead of cowardly hiding, they probably could have saved the life of at least one soul.
But if the perpetrator is indeed 'Brother' why would he 'bother' to wait until midnight? Superstition? On the face of it, that's not very Christian. But 13 is indeed considered by some quite the unlucky number. Even 'fatal' or 'evil' according to the coarse 'theology' that some more 'old fashioned' groups might follow. More possibly it was his own attempt to give a sick rationale to what he was about to do. He would 'save' them by not 'damning' them to their deaths on the 13th. He would also be 'saving' them on a Sunday, the Lord's day.

It was also the 'new moon', very dark down there on what passes for a beach. Hard to see what one is doing in fact. Initially I was assuming a wider struggle & chase had happened, that somehow, either Azriel or his mother managed to get the one shoe off of the perpetrator, after they had gotten out of the car & were perhaps already in the water. Not unlikely, but they'd have to be very quick thinking & I hate to say this, because they were obviously so very unlucky that night, but they would have had to have been at least a little lucky to get the shoe off of a bigger guy such as this, whoever it might be. But there is also, assuming 'the devout's' involvement, a far easier explanation. When a baptism is performed, the parties involved first take off each of their shoes.
And like I mentioned, it was quite dark on that little sliver of beach. No moon that night, & no lights from the street lamps illuminating them either. A shoe, especially if a child had thrown it off somewhere, would be easily lost.
For whatever reason, the perpetrator, 'luckily', was not able to find his shoe.
And that may well be one of the more significant factors in identifying the murderer. The shoe tells us a lot. Who would, & just as importantly, who wouldn't, wear that type of shoe? Also, one male figure would have come home early Sunday morning without a shoe, or if he was smart, either shoe (It's much easier to try to explain the loss of both shoes as opposed to simply one shoe; such as, 'oh my feet were aching so I took my shoes off & when I turned around, some little kid had stolen them').

So whose shoe is it?
I know I have my own emboldened & hardened assumption (based on personality types, etc.)

[However, if we have to revert to the old understanding that the 13-size mentioned by the authorities was indeed meant to convey a child's size, the 9-size (adult) would understandably follow of course to belong to Shantina. This wouldn't necessarily force the dismissal of the elements highlighted above, it would just make the identification of the perpetrator perhaps a bit more difficult.]

One other thing that needs to be addressed here, is that of the open doors on the car. A lot has been made about their possible significance. Initially I saw the fact that since it was the left-side sliding door & the rear hatch that were left open, it could be simply that those were the exit points of escape, assuming a soporific, high-tide 'accident' (as mentioned last week). Then, once I was pretty sure foul-play had been involved, the open doors, where they were, could explain entry points for a perpetrator. (i.e., the child may have been hiding in the back of the car & he or they had to get them out). But in the latest scenario it would simply & obviously be an after-the-fact. The perpetrator would necessarily have to find & recover any articles that might incriminate themselves; any handwritten notes, a phone, & certainly any another messaging unit, as well. He couldn't be sure how high the water would come up. But why then leave the doors open? Simply that he probably had closed one of the two front doors, realized it made an unnecessarily loud noise when he did, & decided not to risk slamming either of the other doors, lest they cause a local homeowner to turn on their porchlights & possibly get a glimpse of him. As for any missing articles that have not yet been found, they may well be lost at sea. But just as possibly at least one could have been saved as a souvenir (a purse? a handbag?). For a religious man like he, it would allow him to share reverence & ask continual forgiveness. And he will still have possession of that. Without it, in fact, he may well be simply damned.

This brings up another potentially horrendous aspect to this case. What if Shantina were not the first to 'go downstream' in this manner (assuming Azriel was simply an unfortunate witness to the intended crime). The cover of the clergy evokes a powerful trust in many, including young women who might be at a spiritual crossroads perhaps in their reproductive beliefs. Wouldn't you have faith in a man of the cloth? You would expect him to ultimately care enough to do the right thing would you not? Even in this day & age, many would still place more inherent trust in a minister than a policeman or a doctor. I should point out however, that in the recent months, there have been other cases in Washington where women have disappeared or been found murdered next to water, their cars found abandoned. I wonder if the pretext initially given to these women might not have been quite similar?

So admittedly what is outlined above are ASSUMPTIONS based on more ASSUMPTIONS, & there sure a whole heck of a lot of them ! (hah), but still perhaps worth checking out?
And yes there are many unanswered questions. (esp., does the abusive ex-boyfriend fit at all into the case anywhere?)
Just trying to help out a bit here by offering up lines of inquiry.
[ And once again, THANK YOU all for bothering to read through this voluminous bit of theories. I know it's a lot & I promise to reciprocate likewise ^ _ ^
(& apologies if i've only re-stated the tired & obvious). Thanks ! ]

As I was reading through your post here, a thought came to my mind.

"The devout" discovers that she was going to have his child, and being chosen by God, and all that, his offspring would also be valued above others as well, think David Koresh, or whatever.

Though I would think it would be fairly easy to find out, especially if you knew where his church was, etc, to discover if anyone was baptized that Sunday morning, but let's assume tina was the one he wrote about, so as baptisms go, to wash away the sin,,, of an abortion, but with the secret idea of taking a life for a life, ie, Az.

As if to say, "see how it feels."
Or, now you are forgiven, ugh...
Mind you, I don't think this happened.

i have enjoyed reading you posts though. I gleaned info I missed.

I did notice she had friends who didn't have her as friends, and thought it strange, but got side tracked reading a professional photo shooter's facebook page, as she had many pics and obviously was doing business through her page. Being consumed with that, I forgot all about her lost friendships.

Also, I didn't know that a person would take their shoes off in a river baptism, in the middle of night, with no moon. wow, that's brave, or stupid. I can't imagine anyone agreeing to do that, no matter how guilty I might have felt, we still could have done it at 6:30, instead of 11pm.

:waitasec:
 
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Paul, I think you solved the mystery.

That's impossible! It's a crack pipe!


lol
 
I think LE is definitely investigating. One of the last statements from them was that they were stopping the SAR efforts, but they are conducting an in-depth investigation on her phone calls, computer, friends, etc.. to find out what could have happened. I think they are just not releasing any information to the public right as to not let any suspects have that information.

IMO, the police aren't doing squat.
 
Shantina had everything going for her - she finished school, had a good job, engaged, loved her son, found sobriety.

What was so overwhelming and stressful to her that a relapse was triggered? What was so overwhelming that Shantina spent an entire evening avoiding her destination? Maybe that information is the key to understanding a great deal. MOO MHO

I agree. She was avoiding a confrontation.
 
Shantina had everything going for her - she finished school, had a good job, engaged, loved her son, found sobriety.

What was so overwhelming and stressful to her that a relapse was triggered? What was so overwhelming that Shantina spent an entire evening avoiding her destination? Maybe that information is the key to understanding a great deal. MOO MHO
I agree, my thoughts as well.
 
IMO, the police aren't doing squat.

There are two separate jurisdictions, not just two separate towns, but two separate counties involved. Further, with the M.E.'s involvement, there are multiple agencies involved. It's hard for me to accept that they could all be incompetent.

Possible - just improbable.

Does LE in that area have a bad rep?
 
There are two separate jurisdictions, not just two separate towns, but two separate counties involved. Further, with the M.E.'s involvement, there are multiple agencies involved. It's hard for me to accept that they could all be incompetent.

Possible - just improbable.

Does LE in that area have a bad rep?
I see your point. I guess its just frustrating as there is NO mention of the case at all anymore in the news, so we are left with the feeling that it has been dropped....Possibly they are working on things, just not doing any media stories on it....?
 
I agree. She was avoiding a confrontation.

I'd buy that if she hadn't kept asking for directions, and hadn't asked RS to bring her phone, and hadn't told her grandparents she was going to Castle Rock. I think there was another reason for her delays - intoxication, illness, or both.
 
I see your point. I guess its just frustrating as there is NO mention of the case at all anymore in the news, so we are left with the feeling that it has been dropped....Possibly they are working on things, just not doing any media stories on it....?

I think they're waiting for her body to surface, and as LE always does, following up any further leads they develop and any tips that are phoned in.

Are people here writing up their tips and leads and emailing them in?
 
Mealy said that he suspects Smiley willingly drove onto the beach during low tide and that she and Azriel then went into the water. He said he doesn’t know why they would get into the water, whether it was accidental or on purpose.http://www.pnwlocalnews.com/kitsap/ckr/news/89305097.html
The idea that she did it on purpose seems odd to leap to. I thought they had ruled it an accident, from being surprised by high tide. Just seems odd to me , the "on purpose" part, which would imply Shantina is a murderer of her own child. To me, odd that he says this, I hope it wasn't the CPS reports and the alcoholism, as this would imply "dismissed". Just my opinion .......
 
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