WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #5

[90Nine]

Is This True ?

(might it be a practice run then ?)

Yes it is. It was on the news. But see, they are not talking about these things that really make a difference. I feel like we've been jipped by the media with this case. I understand why, but I know they are holding back a lot for whatever reason.

 

[SMK]

~ Respectfully snipped by Salem~

IF THE SHOE FITS : ALL THAT IS BELOW IS MERELY A THEORY !
(New Profiles, part X)


Getting back to our case,
It was also the 'new moon', very dark down there on what passes for a beach. Hard to see what one is doing in fact. Initially I was assuming a wider struggle & chase had happened, that somehow, either Azriel or his mother managed to get the one shoe off of the perpetrator, after they had gotten out of the car & were perhaps already in the water. Not unlikely, but they'd have to be very quick thinking & I hate to say this, because they were obviously so very unlucky that night, but they would have had to have been at least a little lucky to get the shoe off of a bigger guy such as this, whoever it might be. But there is also, assuming 'the devout's' involvement, a far easier explanation. When a baptism is performed, the parties involved first take off each of their shoes.

So admittedly what is outlined above are ASSUMPTIONS based on more ASSUMPTIONS, & there sure a whole heck of a lot of them ! (hah), but still perhaps worth checking out?
And yes there are many unanswered questions. (esp., does the abusive ex-boyfriend fit at all into the case anywhere?)
Just trying to help out a bit here by offering up lines of inquiry.
[ And once again, THANK YOU all for bothering to read through this voluminous bit of theories. I know it's a lot & I promise to reciprocate likewise ^ _ ^
(& apologies if i've only re-stated the tired & obvious). Thanks ! ]

This is quite a stretch, and yet you lay it out so convincingly. Superb writing, very much like the very best of professional authors.

 

[SMK]

~Respectfully snipped by Salem~

KAT & DOG : ALL THAT IS BELOW IS MERELY A THEORY !
(New Profiles, part IV)

Initially I was quite perplexed as well by Shantina's almost aloof demeanor in the 2 convenience store videos we know of. Why was there no apparent fear or even noticeable dismay on her countenance? Most people might otherwise take such a sudden turn of events in absolute shock, if not outright horror. But remember, this is no Timid Tabatha here. Shantina has experienced quite the string of domineering &/or potentially abusive partners in her short life, perhaps starting in early family life. As the sister of her son's father mentioned, 'Shantina seems to have made her share of bad choices regarding men' (can't find the original quote just now, so i'm paraphrasing). The thing is, someone who is used to perhaps 'harsher men', usually is capable of holding their own, at least to some extent. There is often a lot of pride involved too. 'If you don't let a man get to you, then they can't & won't get you', (& bring you down).

Fascinating analysis!! Many fine and detailed points made.

 

[SMK]

Yes it is. It was on the news. But see, they are not talking about these things that really make a difference. I feel like we've been jipped by the media with this case. I understand why, but I know they are holding back a lot for whatever reason.

Interesting that you should say this. At first, I thought maybe with the discovery of the alcoholism and prior CPS reports, they had dropped her as not "worthy" enough. But then I began to think something was being held back for a reason, such as LE withholding info while they work on something. Is this your belief as well?

 

[90Nine]

Good thought. This is from RS's website (and he mentions 9:00 PM which is when Shantina and Az were at the diner):

We started to get worried about 9:00pm, I began to check in with the WSP about accidents. Her step father and I drove around the area to see if we could spot her.

My question is which area did they drive around? Around Castle Rock? Or around Olympia?

Maybe on the freeway? Would they be able to get to Lacey that quickly? It was about 50 miles away (I believe the diner was in Lacey)

 

[90Nine]

I don't recall what RS was getting fixed for 2 hours/was it two hours? . Did he stay at the place he was at while he was getting it fixed? I don't recall.

 

[90Nine]

Remember the Leah Hickman case? The police did not discuss any information with the public as to not disclose any information to anyone that might disrupt or contaminate the investigation.

Maybe that is what is going on here and they have a lot more and are doing a lot more than we know.

Very similar reporting with that case as this one.

 

[Myst]

What do you guys make of this??

(Candy is Shantina's step-mother)

At the following link is a post that makes it seem (IMO) that perhaps Candy knows something she isn't sharing.
http://truecrimes.50.forumer.com/viewtopic.php?f=375&t=2263

 

[SMK]

Remember the Leah Hickman case? The police did not discuss any information with the public as to not disclose any information to anyone that might disrupt or contaminate the investigation.

Maybe that is what is going on here and they have a lot more and are doing a lot more than we know.

Very similar reporting with that case as this one.

You are very right about that. And I recall cases where LE played "dumb", acted as though they believed something was an accident, and later it came out that they were working on another theory. Right, they don't want anyone to tip off someone they may be investigating, or disrupt what they are pursuing.

 

[BeanE]

Everybody's going to keep in mind that we're not going sleuth anyone or cast negative aspersions or suspicions on them unless and until LE changes their mind about there not being any signs of criminal activity and names POIs or suspects, right? We've all seen all the guidance and cautions posted by the mods? We're all going to work together to make sure the thread doesn't get shut down again?

Phew! Great Thanks!
BeanE

 

[jessigirl]

When I first watched the interview with Dennis Williams, I thought he seemed odd. One thought I had at the time was - did he or someone else in the home offer to lead her to I-5 by having her follow his vehicle? Why did reports say "elderly couple" when they referred to the Williams? They are not elderly. I also saw an interview with a teenage male at this house.

Another thought, did Shantina follow someone (another car) onto that road/beach?

This definately a possibility. It would account for no fingerprints in van(cuz she followed person, instead of person driving her car onto beach) Also as we all know the tire tracks on beach never did make a whole lotta sense, I believe we even discussed more than one vehicles tracks. It would make much more sense vs. her finding that tiny lil road that led to beach. Altough I really dont think the Williams but it is very odd that they have been referred to as elderly couple(I brought up this exact pt.several threads back&never got a response)

 

[90Nine]

Could the possible 3rd person who might have been there been the one who knocked on the garage door at 1am? Maybe in panic over what happened...possibly an accident occurred with the 3rd person and it wasn't foul play. Maybe they were not even at the van and the accident happened down the beach? The house was a half mile east of the van if you go the beach route vs road.

Heck, SS and the 3rd party could have left Az in the van and walked for a while and discovered the accident. Or Az could have been walking with them and they weren't paying attn to him as the tide was rising...he slipped.

There is a cove there and perhaps they were climbing over it, he slipped on the rocks or when they were walking back the tide had risen in the cove and Az fell in by accident by the time they were heading back or something similar.

Maybe they put the trunk up to sit there...went for a walk, etc...

Photo 1 shows the cove and past the cove..perhaps they walked and came back and tried to cross the open area just pass the cove and the tide had risen....trying to cross that Az got caugh up in the tide.

All this would account for why she did not run up the road for help or honk the horn over and over.

High tide and low tide cove reference photos:

Red lines indicate where they drove in at the end of the small road and then where the van ended up...

 

[BeanE]

Wow! So much to think about. Thank you for that, Aion Essence.

Regarding the possibility of pregnancy in regards to the possibility of both RS and EJ having some sort of urological or urological area bleeding, two other possibilities would be transmitted urinary tract infection and/or transmitted STD. Either would introduce similar considerations to a pregnancy.

You've certainly given me plenty of food for thought.

Thanks again,
BeanE

 

[90Nine]

I can completely visualize some kids or older teens/20's or so hanging out somewhere where she might see them...maybe near the mercantile (often shady/or younger folks hang out at or near those types of smaller grocery/mini mart stores) and it didn't get on the tapes (or maybe it did and it's not being shared)...they took her down to the beach...she left, got directions from the williams, made the call with possibly the intention to actually go to Castle Rock...she changed her mind at the last minute and went back to the beach...maybe the kid/kids/person/people were still down there so she drove...probably not too much forensic evidence if they were only sitting on the back of the tailgate.

Or maybe this whole scenario only includes Shantina. If that is the case, I still think she was at the beach early, had walked down, with someone else or others earlier before the Williams stop.

With the above posted scenario about Az slipping, etc..it's possible that Shantina tried to save Az and fell in too...did drown and that is when one of the people she was with went for help.

Going up the back way, if the tide had come in and made it so they could not cross over the cove back to the van, would have made it the only way to get back to the street.

There is normally always 1 person who is the more responsible one who would stop somewhere to tell someone what happened. Then I can see the friends/friend making him run and not continue knocking.

 

[trigger]

OK, here is an idea, that may sound off the wall, but just something to throw out there, and to keep in mind: I recall several years ago watching a true crime story on A & E. It was about a woman and her two teen-aged daughters, in the 1990s, who took a car trip from Ohio to Florida for fun, while the Dad stayed home and tended the farm. He phoned them each night in their Florida motel, only one night they stopped answering. The motel manager became concerned, because they were gone, but all their luggage and belongings were still in the room. In the end, it turned out some older man, very nice seeming gentleman who owned a home and a boat, had chatted with them one afternoon when they were lost and asked for directions, and invited them to come see his boat. Well, he drowned all 3 of them, 3 grown women. Now, this stuff happens. Who is to say it could not happen to Shantina: Young, pretty, impaired, lost, alone with a small child, late at night, in a deserted area? Does anyone see why I told this story?

Yes I remember...What a horrible case that was. He raped and killed them one by one. I think he was caught by the note he wrote which was left in the moms car. . LE put up the note on a bulletin board and the landlady called LE. Sickening..

 

[SMK]

Everybody's going to keep in mind that we're not going sleuth anyone or cast negative aspersions or suspicions on them unless and until LE changes their mind about there not being any signs of criminal activity and names POIs or suspects, right? We've all seen all the guidance and cautions posted by the mods? We're all going to work together to make sure the thread doesn't get shut down again?

Phew! Great Thanks!
BeanE

Yes, very much in agreement.

 

[SMK]

Could the possible 3rd person who might have been there been the one who knocked on the garage door at 1am? Maybe in panic over what happened...possibly an accident occurred with the 3rd person and it wasn't foul play. Maybe they were not even at the van and the accident happened down the beach? The house was a half mile east of the van if you go the beach route vs road.

Heck, SS and the 3rd party could have left Az in the van and walked for a while and discovered the accident. Or Az could have been walking with them and they weren't paying attn to him as the tide was rising...he slipped.

There is a cove there and perhaps they were climbing over it, he slipped on the rocks or when they were walking back the tide had risen in the cove and Az fell in by accident by the time they were heading back or something similar.

Maybe they put the trunk up to sit there...went for a walk, etc...

Photo 1 shows the cove and past the cove..perhaps they walked and came back and tried to cross the open area just pass the cove and the tide had risen....trying to cross that Az got caugh up in the tide.

All this would account for why she did not run up the road for help or honk the horn over and over.

High tide and low tide cove reference photos:

Red lines indicate where they drove in at the end of the small road and then where the van ended up...

Thanks for all of this, and these types of possible scenarios have run through my own mind. Thanks for the pictures, great visualization possible with these.

 

[trigger]

Some Solved and unsolved cases..

1. Lyn Ohana missing from Port Townsend 2005, never found. Middle age, brown hair, small stature, used public transportation/Bainbridge ferry to commute to work in Seattle. She is still missing.

2. Margarett Kirkpatrick, 53-year-old woman found floating in Liberty Bay (Poulsbo). Case never solved. The woman apparently visited a friend's boat Jan. 12 but he wasn't there. The next day he found her belongings and some food, and reported her missing. Her body was found Jan. 15 in Liberty Bay.

3. On the same day, Shannon Lyn Reed found floating near Bainbridge Island, which is near Poulsbo. Case never solved.(suspicious)..

4. 1/09 Lynn Stafford-Yilmaz After reviewing surveillance footage, detectives said they're not certain that Lynn Stafford-Yilmaz was the one who drove her car onto the ferry. Body never found

5. Betty Jean Boyce, age 43 missing from South Kitsap since September 2005. I have done no research at all on her at this point, so maybe she has been found? Have to look harder.

Having a storm where I live and might loose power...

 

[revampz]

wow myst....thank you for that link and the post on another forum directed to
Candy....

until I read that I was quite convinced that Shantina had been drinking and ended up on the beach and they both drowned by some form of disorientation, being trapped or something similar.....

but WHAT WAS THAT ALL ABOUT????????

I still dont think a third party is involved, but there is some dark secret being hidden......

something happened recently (and maybe this is what the post refers to) to set this woman off into seemingly losing control of her life again....

 

[90Nine]

Yes I remember...What a horrible case that was. He raped and killed them one by one. I think he was caught by the note he wrote which was left in the moms car. . LE put up the note on a bulletin board and the landlady called LE. Sickening..

I remember this - I believe they had it on a crime TV show.

From the Gull Harbor Mercantile there are 4 sex offenders registered within a 2 mile radius:

http://www.icrimewatch.net/results.php?AgencyID=54490&whichaddr=&SubmitAddrSearch=1&AddrStreet=4932+boston+harbor+road&AddrCity=olypia&AddrState=48&AddrZip=98506&AddrZipPlus=&radius=2