Working Theories Thread

[liz b.]

1. Kyron's SM waved goodbye to him at 8:45. She was about 150 feet away from him ; quite a distance. SM said that he was going towards his classroom at that time. So, she must have gone out of the school close to the north parking lot ; far away from where Kyron was,as his classroom was next to the south parking lot...


2. LE said that an unidentified witness saw Kyron next at 9:00 by the door of his classroom. IIRC, he was alone.

My current theory is that Kyron left the school building via the blue exit door at the bottom of the stairwell next to his classroom door. I believe he was lured by someone familiar to him ,possibly the parent of a classmate. It was all about a small window of opportunity. Possible that Kyron had bee "groomed " by the perp for a while.

 

[Emma Peel]

Sorry about that...if you'd like, please delete my posts above or if you'd like to move them...no problem!

Thanks misbellamoure. You can copy/paste your posts to the Question thread and when you're done, you can delete them here via the "edit" function. I have a feeling you will get many of your questions answered on Kyron's Questions thread - great knowledgeable posters here to help you!

 

[chargers2010]

The best theory at this point is based on what LE has said so far...that this is an isolated incident and there is no stranger danger. Think about that for a minute and let it sink in. You can only come to one serious conclusion at that point. It seems like they are waiting for more evidence and a body before an arrest is made.

 

[Wendy101]

The best theory at this point is based on what LE has said so far...that this is an isolated incident. Think about that for a minute and let it sink in. You can only come to one serious conclusion at that point. It seems like they are waiting for more evidence and a body before an arrest is made.

IMO the words "isolated incident" and the fact the children and teacher returned to school rather quickly bring me to one serious, sickening conclusion.

I agree, waiting on more evidence and Kyron's body.

 

[DairyGirl]

1. Kyron's SM waved goodbye to him at 8:45. She was about 150 feet away from him ; quite a distance. SM said that he was going towards his classroom at that time. So, she must have gone out of the school close to the north parking lot ; far away from where Kyron was,as his classroom was next to the south parking lot...


2. LE said that an unidentified witness saw Kyron next at 9:00 by the door of his classroom. IIRC, he was alone.

My current theory is that Kyron left the school building via the blue exit door at the bottom of the stairwell next to his classroom door. I believe he was lured by someone familiar to him ,possibly the parent of a classmate. It was all about a small window of opportunity. Possible that Kyron had bee "groomed " by the perp for a while.

Do we have any verification of when SM left other then what she said?

 

[chargers2010]

.. and the fact the children and teacher returned to school rather quickly bring me to one serious, sickening conclusion.

Good point Zaha about them letting the children return to school very quickly.

 

[Wendy101]

Do we have any verification of when SM left other then what she said?

are we are supposed to have verified facts when posting our theories?

 

[Kimster]

are we are supposed to have verified facts when posting our theories?

When we post a theory, there needs to be some basis in fact. Or, it might be because of something that happened in another case.

It may be a bit early for many of us to come up with a theory at this point.

 

[chargers2010]

Summary of points leading to suspected theory:

1. LE states that this is an isolated incident and there is no stranger danger. This alone is huge and pretty states what they are thinking.
2. Children and teacher are allowed to return to school right away.
3. LE seems to be highly focused on one area for searching and its suggested source = cell phone pinging.
4. LE has been rather tight lipped in this case and has not been asking the public to look out for certain cars, suspect sketches, etc. Yes, they have been asking for video footage however.

 

[revampz]

I have had quite a few theories....

I have never thought it was premeditated until someone above mentioned maybe Kyron was hurt and "was going to tell" or the fear put into them that he might tell.....I had an aha moment......that would give motive....or if they thought he may have hurt a younger member of the family....

therefore was told to go to parking lot and dont know the rest.....

2)....a breaking point was reached...something went down at the science fair......told to go to car.....accident while angry then coverup....

or he took off from the angry person hence the searching in the woods close by...(and maybe died while hiding but hiding spot still not discovered)...

3) someone not biologically related took him to get back at them....or took him to rescue him from a controlling situation....

 

[pufnstuf]

I will say that I believe that it was premeditated. I believe every detail of that day was planned and mentally rehearsed.

 

[violet67]

When we post a theory, there needs to be some basis in fact. Or, it might be because of something that happened in another case.

It may be a bit early for many of us to come up with a theory at this point.

with all due respect i disagree...this case has genenerated really strong opinions...because there seemed to be a a clampdown on rumours (and i will agree there was a swirl of them) people were kind reluctant to post any theories but i will be willing to bet that there a plenty of theories that people have come up with...we are all "treading lightly" i think

 

[Emma Peel]

Here is my working Theory for today.

I just realized Calliope and I are on the same page today. LOL. Okay then!

Last I posted, days ago, it was 5 BIG THINGS, and concluded this was a Kyron-as-specific-target abduction. Here I’m looking a little closer at who the perp might possibly be – using the community & LE behavior signals as clues…

This is revised, and has new analysis and assumptions, but some of it will look familiar. (It's a workin' theory so, I reworked it )

SEVEN BIG things that stick in my craw:

1) We know Kyron did not leave school on his own or without a reason, some convincing or luring.

(This has been confirmed with the transition from SAR to criminal investigation.)

2) This was a hectic and abnormal school day of happy hustle-bustle visitors going in and out of this little school for special events. It was widely known in the school community, and posted on the school external billboard at the end of the school year.
(This (above) is a generally acceptable fact of the day of Kyron’s disappearance.)

3) There was some sort of breach in communication between Kyron’s caretakers. (Parent/Teacher) with regard to whether Kyron was staying in school after visiting the Science Fair. We will just call this the breach in parent/teacher miscommunication.

(LE knows what happened between the understanding parent and teacher by now.)

Note: Upon this, we are left to speculate for now. This breach plays into theories involving the teacher receiving incorrect information about where Kyron would be that day, either accidentally, or nefariously/on purpose. It also could just be simple teacher oversight – although we note – the teacher was not put on leave. This breach is likely an important investigation focal point. This breakdown created a huge gap in time for alerting about Kyron's disappearance. This breakdown created opportunity on an opportune day.

4) Kyron was scheduled to leave town for the weekend – for his scheduled visit with his Medford family – Desiree/Tony. [ame="http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showpost.php?p=5289929&postcount=54"]Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - OR - Kyron Horman, 7 yo Second grader, Portland, 4 June 2010 - Part #14[/ame]

5) Searches Continue as if for body disposal. LE has strong leads - reasons to search where they are searching.

6) General Observations that stick in my craw: This investigation has been characterized by LE as “unique” and “special” and “an isolated case”. The press is acquiescent to LE requests for hush hush. LE characterizes the family as completely cooperating. It’s a criminal investigation/missing/endangered child. LE does not characterize it as an abduction. The family seems united in their reluctance to make public statements and appeals. There is uniquely cooperative and quiet behavior in the community - the school, Intel, extended family, neighbors, friends – have all been extremely tight lipped about this case.

7) All of the above = The Perfect Storm.
What an incredible coincidence that the EXACT child whose caretakers had a breach/misunderstanding - in the parent-teacher expectation/communication - that EXACT busy morning is the EXACT child that was somehow lured away on the EXACT day he was scheduled to leave town for a weekend away.

Do you believe in coincidences such as this? What are the odds?

Should we do the math? Statistically speaking, what are the odds where the initial event of a breach of communications with regard to ONE child in a contained and secured system of 224 children leads to the vanishing event of that EXACT ONE child on this EXACT special school event calendar day of approx. 185 school days, and on one of the few Fridays he scheduled to leave town for Medford for the weekend?

That’s a probability problem (lol) and I can’t remember exactly how to calculate it. Never-the-less, it’s rather slim odds.

*********************************

Today my updated working theory connects these assumptions:
1) Kyron was specifically the target - this was a planned Kyron abduction.
2) Kyron knew the person he left school with
3) The person(s) knew Kyron’s schedule
4) The person(s) were familiar with this particular school and the school schedule
5) The person(s) may have used another school kid to lure Kyron
6) LE believes this to be the case due to a credible lead
7) It involves someone(s) known to the family
8) It involves someone(s) known to the school
9) It involves more than one family in this community
10) The community has an idea
11) The neighbors house has recently been searched
12) Kyron’s brother only recently moved hours away (reason?)
13) Kyron’s brother was away camping with his father
14) Kyron knows older kids - teens - through his brother

In summary… today I’m considered something like the Olten case – with criminal deviant behavior by some teen(s) who knew Kyron. And a community in shock.

I reserve, as always, the right to change my opinion tomorrow. So, go ahead and have at it! :dance:

 

[sofia76]

I've had several theories. Am open to others.

Theory #1 - Kyron leaves school willingly. Kyron went outside either alone or with a small group of children (maybe older kids) before class started up. He lost track of time or was separated - but in any case was left behind when they all returned in time for 10am class time. If they were in different grades from him, they might not notice by end of school day that he wasn't around. This theory is supported by the fact that after the first round of student interviews were conducted, there was suddenly no information coming from the school or anyone else. If young minors are involved, no one would want to talk about this and demonize innocent children. It also would explain why LE stated that this was an isolated incident, did not call it a kidnapping, and why they limited their search to places one could arrive to on foot, and why they made no effort to nationalize their search.

Addition to Theory #1 - Kyron is abducted after leaving school willingly. If Kyron got lost outside or locked out of school (or was afraid to re-enter because he might get into trouble for leaving in the first place), he might have attempted to walk home. Children do this often. If they get disoriented, they try to go home. At this point, a crime of opportunity may have taken place. Perhaps he was picked up on one of the main roads by a stranger or someone he knew. LE seemed very confident that he was close by and would be found ... but the problem is that if he were initially lost and on foot, but THEN was abducted, the search parameters would need to change. But no point in casting a wide net at that point - better to scrutinize the activities and travel of anyone in that vicinity who could have come across a child on foot.

Will post Theory #2 in a bit.

 

[Emma Peel]

(copying this over from the last thread because I'm too lazy to re-type it)

IMO, a kid in school is going to feel safe (as well they should!).

So here we have a situation where there are many kids, parents, volunteers and staff milling about. Kyron sees these "strangers" and even though he doesn't necessarily know them, logic would tell him that these people are "ok". After all, the school itself is allowing them to be around and interact with all the kids. A perfectly reasonable assumption on his part.

Knowing he's inside a safe place, surrounded by people he knows are there to watch out for him, his guard is going to be way down. In an environment like this, I have no doubt most adults wouldn't consider the 'stranger danger' element as they would elsewhere (which btw could explain why it seems no one noticed anything unusual). So why should we expect a 7 year old child to be any more vigilant??

Given these circumstances, someone with intentions on taking a child would already have a huge advantage, for not only the kids but adults as well would never in a million years expect that something like this could happen.

Now all that is left is for that predator to find a vulnerable child, one who is separated from the group, away from an adult, close to an exit.

------

I believe it was a child predator, someone who is NOT an RSO (i.e. has never been caught). Someone who is either connected to the school (however peripherally that may be) and/or the neighborhood. Possibly even had children or siblings who attended the school, maybe even a former student. Whoever this person is, I think he caught kyron separated from others and close enough to the exit that he was able to lead him out of the school without being noticed (obviously).

Because of what I wrote above (that Kyron would have felt secure in this environment), I don't think he would have fought off this person until it was far too late. I also don't believe he would have necessarily had to recognize this person in order to be lured away. I won't repost what I put on here last night; it creeped me out just to type it. Suffice to say, I can see where someone could very easily entice him to open the exit door and even follow to a waiting vehicle.

Now this assumes that Kyron wasn't a specific target, meaning someone didn't go there specifically to take him, just a vulnerable child. IF he was targeted by someone who knew him and was going after him, my thoughts are that it's someone connected to his hobbies, activities, clubs, etc., OR that of his parents or brother.

I realize this isn't a popular theory, but to me it's the one that makes the most sense.

Hey Calliope, for an unpopular theory, we are thinking a bit alike today. I reworked a theory much like yours just now. Difference is, I'm thinking Kyron knew the person(s)...and they knew him...

 

[human]

I have ideas, but no theories.

I am wondering why LE has not released a profile of a person who would do such a brazen act.

I am wondering why LE has not told the community to think of people who exhibit the characteristics of someone who would do such a brazen act.

 

[Emma Peel]

I've had several theories. Am open to others.

Theory #1 - Kyron leaves school willingly. Kyron went outside either alone or with a small group of children (maybe older kids) before class started up. He lost track of time or was separated - but in any case was left behind when they all returned in time for 10am class time. If they were in different grades from him, they might not notice by end of school day that he wasn't around. This theory is supported by the fact that after the first round of student interviews were conducted, there was suddenly no information coming from the school or anyone else. If young minors are involved, no one would want to talk about this and demonize innocent children. It also would explain why LE stated that this was an isolated incident, did not call it a kidnapping, and why they limited their search to places one could arrive to on foot, and why they made no effort to nationalize their search.

Addition to Theory #1 - Kyron is abducted after leaving school willingly. If Kyron got lost outside or locked out of school (or was afraid to re-enter because he might get into trouble for leaving in the first place), he might have attempted to walk home. Children do this often. If they get disoriented, they try to go home. At this point, a crime of opportunity may have taken place. Perhaps he was picked up on one of the main roads by a stranger or someone he knew. LE seemed very confident that he was close by and would be found ... but the problem is that if he were initially lost and on foot, but THEN was abducted, the search parameters would need to change. But no point in casting a wide net at that point - better to scrutinize the activities and travel of anyone in that vicinity who could have come across a child on foot.

Will post Theory #2 in a bit.

I thought theory 1 at first - and that would explain the reason they conducted the massive SAR effort.

I never thought of theory #1 plus Addition - but it makes sense too. I like it Sofia! Looking forward to your next theory.

 

[violet67]

Yikes emma!!!!! i have wandered down that path of thinking myself once or twice during the past week (but still currently leaning elsewhere) That #6 bullet is pretty interesting! what are the odds though that SM wouldn't have run into him at the school. She would certainly have raised an eyebrow.

 

[butterfly1978]

I feel that "someone" close to Kyron, was burdened by Kyron and jealous, planned this out and created an alibi for themself. Based off statements by LE this is an isolated case and no other kids are endanger, the way they are handling this case, my gut instinct and the fact I don't believe in coincidences.
I do reserve the right to change my mind at a future time because I am a female and thats my prerogative and as new info becomes available.

 

[masyann]

Possible theories:

1.) SM is getting ready to leave the school say’s goodbye (she say’s) or (someone says) the last time SM sees Kyron, is 8:45, but maybe it is 8:50 or 8:52 or 8:53 (but you get my point), Kyron a couple minutes later thinks oh no I forgot my (whatever) in the car, so who ever saw him at 9 maybe really seen him at 8:55 or 8:56. So he leaves the school, and the car is gone, and then someone takes him, Crime of Opportunity.

2.) Or let’s say with parts of the same scenario above accept for let’s say Kyron thinks I don’t want to be in the talent show or he feels sick and he runs after SM out the door (thus someone seeing them leave together if that’s been verified I do not know I DON’T THINK IT HAS BEEN VERIFIED) and he says, he does not want to stay at school, and SM says honey you have to stay at school you will be fine, so she gets in the car and is in a hurry (maybe in a hurry for a appointment she may have told the teacher about, but it was her appointment not anything to do with Kyron, Appointment has NEVER BEEN VERIFIED to my knowledge) so she does not wait to make sure he goes back to the school. (If this happened just think how sick she would feel.) So Kyron runs to A or B or C happens
A.
He goes somewhere on school grounds and hides at first I thought he may have went into the woods to hide for awhile and some SO or RSO grabbed him. But I think it does look like the school has a fence around it, correct me if I am wrong. So he could have just went to one of the out buildings

Or B. Someone sees him heading back to the school and again this would have to be a crime of opportunity takes him, but why would no one see this. Maybe they did or did not, as was mentioned earlier kids have been taken from stores with people around and no one see’s anything.

Or C. Someone that has been watching (from upper floor from window) either someone that had came with student or is a employee who is a pervert creep or whatever bad name you can come up with, sees him and sees what just happened and comes out to see what they can do to help… and that’s very creepy to type. And maybe the person that took him is the person (if that is even true) is the one who say’s SM and Kyronl leave together.

With what is known and it’s not much I am trying to think how it may have happened, it maybe just about anybody or anything, you just never really know. Even when you finally know you may not really know everything. I do think whatever it is NO ONE should ever, for any reason have to suffer the loss a child.

Hope this make sense, I don’t write things out very well I have ADHD and I don’t write things out to well….

But these theories don’t leave much for the isolated incident and no one should be worried.

Also I am not sure if I should have left parts out do to non verified. Kimster or BeanE please delete or let me know and I will delete. TIA