Brian Laundrie has been missing for 29 days. Survival experts say he's had help, he's blending in, or he's dead.
Survival experts told Insider it's unlikely Laundrie would be alive if he'd been hiding in the Carlton Reserve for the past 29 days
Former US Marine Robert Urban said he believed there were three scenarios. The most likely, he said, is that Laundrie is not in the reserve.
"The second one is that if he is cached somewhere, someone's helping him - someone's giving him supply or food. But everyone in his tight circle would be watched intently.
"Third, he's dead."
Most people who find themselves stranded in the wilderness "break down within five or six days," Jason Marsteiner, the founder and lead instructor of Colorado Mountain Man Survival, told Insider.
"Especially if they don't have food; you're not eating what your body needs," he added. "You're either going to get angry or you are going to have some sort of emotional distress that makes you make poor decisions. Plus, he's got this stress of the situation - why he's being pursued to begin with."
Robert Urban, the founder and chief instructor of the Urban Survival Academy in Florida, said a large part of surviving in the wilderness involved a person's mental strength rooted in the hope they'll eventually be found.
"Survival is based on the hope that I'm going to get rescued," Urban, a former US Marine, said. "When I do, my life's going to be better, and I'll be back with my friends and family and get back to normal. So there's a big positive mental attitude, even for experienced guys like myself.
"And the only way that you really have that mental fortitude is if there's that hope of it. So in this specific scenario of if this guy gets rescued - 'rescued' - his life is not going to be better than it was in the past," he added, alluding to
the legal hurdles Laundrie could face if he's found.
The police have been searching for Laundrie in the Carlton Reserve in Florida.
North Port Police Department
Experts said Laundrie would have faced numerous dangers, from bears to contaminated water
In the Florida reserve, Laundrie would have had to endure hot temperatures; insects such as mosquitoes; animals like bears, wild hogs, snakes, coyotes, and alligators; poisonous or otherwise inedible food; and dangerous bacteria or other contaminants in the water he could try to drink.
Marsteiner said Laundrie would likely need to get food and water from other people near him, though
the reserve has been closed to visitors since September 21 during the search for Laundrie.
Even if he had access to a water-filtration device, it could still be difficult to find drinkable water, Urban said, especially if Laundrie were looking for a source far from other people.
Marsteiner said that while there were ways to start fires that go relatively undetected, it was unlikely that someone without training would be able to do so. The police in North Port have said they've found no evidence of any campsite in the park.
Marsteiner speculated that Laundrie could be on the Appalachian Trail, a
2,193-mile hiking path that stretches from Georgia to Maine.
Officers with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission ride up a private road near the entrance of the Carlton Reserve on September 21.
AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack
"To most people, that sounds like he will get caught, but people live in their own little world, their own little bubble," Marsteiner said. "They don't pay attention to the environment around them usually. He could very well be scavenging off of the people on the trail or at the places where people go to resupply for their food."
Marsteiner said that if Laundrie died in the reserve, police search dogs would most likely be able to pick up the scent of his body. But Urban said it wouldn't be impossible for Laundrie's death in the park to go undetected.
"You have so many animals that are hungry," Urban said. "You can be in a snake stomach, you can be in a gator stomach, or you can be eviscerated by a bear.
"An animal is not going to eat out in public. It's going to take back to where it feels safe and sheltered," he said, adding that a "pack of hungry animals" or "even buzzards" could destroy a body and leave behind little evidence.
"Some of these animals can destroy you in this Florida heat," he said, adding that any scent would likely dissipate in 12 to 24 hours, making it difficult for even search dogs to detect a body.