The storm was located 520 miles (835 kilometers) south of Bermuda on Thursday morning. It had winds of up to 45 mph (75 kph) and was moving north at 10 mph (17 kph).
Philippe's center is expected to pass near Bermuda on Friday and then approach eastern New England and Atlantic Canada on Saturday as a post-tropical cyclone.
The same weather system that's about to bring an end to summerlike temperatures in the Northeast could affect the formation of a tropical storm in the Caribbean next week. Here's how.
That doesn’t sound good: a 50% chance of developing into a hurricane (Phillipe has a 10% chance right now), but I’m not familiar with those weather forecasters. (I follow a very restrained Canadian forecaster.)
A low-latitude tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Thereafter, some slow development of this system is possible as it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has changed
little in organization since earlier today. However, environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in the next couple of days while the
system moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
continues to produce an area of disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear only marginally
favorable for some additional development while the system moves
slowly northward during the next day or so. The low is forecast to
merge with a frontal system over the western Gulf of Mexico by
Wednesday morning. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the
system is forecast to produce winds to gale force over portions of
the northern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
...LIDIA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
12:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 10
Location: 19.2°N 107.2°W
Moving: ENE at 15 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph
“Hurricane #Lidia Advisory 31: Major Hurricane Lidia Forecast to Make Landfall in West-Central Mexico This Evening. Life-Threatening Hurricane-Force Winds and Flooding Rains Expected to Begin Soon. hurricanes.gov”
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