4 Univ of Idaho Students Murdered, Bryan Kohberger Arrested, Moscow, Nov 2022 #98

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What alternate suspect will the defence present?

is there anyone specific or are we just talking generic SODDI
If at all, my guess would be generic. We know LE did a lot of investigating of the usual suspects/inner circle (boyfriends et.al.) imo, and there were many rumours circulating online re this and that guy, food truck guy, neighbour...whoever...which MPD were debunking on an ongoing basis via their public website. Moo

Jmo a specific SODDI won't be the game plan. AT will have a hard time arguing tunnel vision, despite the IGG. The pre BK warrants speak to the investigative lengths LE went to. And moo ISP and FBI were involved early on. My guess is many, many interviews and angles were followed up. I recall the regular press conferences saying as much.

Generic SODDI..maybe AT will insinuate some dude came and went on foot... But via what witnesses? And really that is too much when you have the elantra circling and no one ever having come forward to claim it. Plus generic SODDI will not account for BK's DNA on the sheathe.

I believe AT's main thrust will be along the lines of suggesting DNA is a secondary transfer and or LE accidentally put it there somehow. This is the best they've got imo. If they end up presenting alibi defense in conjunction with DNA 'innocent' transfer, it is not going to be strong imo (my guess: 'look here's a white car on video somewhere at 4am, that's our client'). But any way they turn there are problems because Elantra 'coincidence', out driving coincidence, 12 X prior in the vicinity at unsociable hours coincidence and whatever else the state may have. I think the state have more, much more. Jmo.
 
still following...

IF, and I say ONLY IF.... this goes to trial, what do you think will be the MAIN strategy of the defense?

1) Blame the police/FBI for (supposedly) sloppy evidence gathering.
2) Attack the way BK was identified thru IGG methods used and that LE singled him out while excluding all other suspects.
3) Argue that the DNA evidence was from him touching the sheath somewhere else earlier and otherwise the prosecution has no case at all. The car and phone data means nothing and could be anyone.
4) Argue no one person could have killed all those in that short amount of time.
5) Some other theory of defense?

Personally, I think there is almost no chance any of this would work because juries are generally down to earth realists who are not swayed by big claims that can't be backed up... but what do you think?
3) BK: “I bought a knife with a sheath just like that. Of course my DNA was on it. I left it in the drawer of my desk at college and the next day it was gone! I didn’t report it because it wasn’t that expensive and I was stupid for having left it there. LE should have investigated the students and janitorial staff with access to that classroom.”

Yeah, that’s the ticket.
 
3) BK: “I bought a knife with a sheath just like that. Of course my DNA was on it. I left it in the drawer of my desk at college and the next day it was gone! I didn’t report it because it wasn’t that expensive and I was stupid for having left it there. LE should have investigated the students and janitorial staff with access to that classroom.”

Yeah, that’s the ticket.
You think BK will testify?
 
still following...

IF, and I say ONLY IF.... this goes to trial, what do you think will be the MAIN strategy of the defense?

1) Blame the police/FBI for (supposedly) sloppy evidence gathering.
2) Attack the way BK was identified thru IGG methods used and that LE singled him out while excluding all other suspects.
3) Argue that the DNA evidence was from him touching the sheath somewhere else earlier and otherwise the prosecution has no case at all. The car and phone data means nothing and could be anyone.
4) Argue no one person could have killed all those in that short amount of time.
5) Some other theory of defense?

Personally, I think there is almost no chance any of this would work because juries are generally down to earth realists who are not swayed by big claims that can't be backed up... but what do you think?
Looking at the trial of Casey Anthony, who IMO was absolutely guilty, the defense presented her dad as a viable perpetrator. And there are people who still believe this.

In OJ Simpson's trial, IIRC, it was a combination plate of sloppy (and racist) police work, and of course Some Other Dude Did It.

I think this defense will also present the same type of defense.
 
You think BK will testify?
Actually, I think he would be a fool if he does testify. But then again, he brought his phone with him, so there you are.
We know he likes to talk, to give involved explanations for things. So he could say too much and trip himself up.
How many trials involving murder has the defendant testified and then found NG? Rittenhouse and Penny, but they used self defense as the reason. Otherwise I'm drawing a blank.

I don't what BK could say that would help him, as much of the evidence is not known by us. If there is evidence that he owned a KaBar, if there is evidence clearly showing his Elantra (license plate) at the scene, or some online evidence of prior knowledge of the victim(s), it would be difficult to explain it away convincingly. The 12 trips to the area could be explained, depending on the coverage area of those particular towers.

Just waiting (im)patiently for the trial.
 
You think BK will testify?
Not sure if he will or if he won't but I do think he'd very much like to testify. You know, cuz he's the smartest person in the room (city, state, world). Plus, it just feels like the whole thing was a big game, challenge, and/or part of a research project to him (i.e. - His reddit crime research survey). JMO on everything I've said!

 
3) BK: “I bought a knife with a sheath just like that. Of course my DNA was on it. I left it in the drawer of my desk at college and the next day it was gone! I didn’t report it because it wasn’t that expensive and I was stupid for having left it there. LE should have investigated the students and janitorial staff with access to that classroom.”

Yeah, that’s the ticket.
There’s only one way to introduce that evidence. Which means we’ll never hear it and it would be left up to the jury to conjure that up.

If I’m a juror, I can think of a lot more reasonable of an explanation:

He drove down there and did it. Murdered 4 innocent people and got the sheath ripped off of him. And he was too busy to notice. MOO

Because after his two victims stopped struggling upstairs he heard concerned voices downstairs. So without trying to put his knife away he rushed downstairs to do more murdering. MOO

And by the time he was done with that and noticed his sheath was gone. He knew trying to retrace his steps to find it was pushing his luck. Is it next to wear he fought Ethan? On the bed? Does he turn on the lights? Is it in the hallway? The stairs? Upstairs? He had no clue where it fell off. MOO

Time’s ticking. barking dog. Screams. Struggling People Fighting him for their lives. Thumps. Blood. Adrenaline. Lost in Chaos. Someone SURELY must have called the police in his mind. So he abandoned it and hoped that the meticulous cleaning prior was enough. MOO

That’s much more reasonable than you know…a multi agency coordinated conspiracy involving dozens of law enforcement agencies and fabricated and planted evidence for some odd ball (MOO) grad student nobody from the Poconos.

MOO

Go Ravens!‍⬛
 
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An alternative suspect case is known to be one of the most powerful ways to get a jury to vote for acquittal providing the defense attorney can make sense of what happened including all of the evidence.

There have been studies of the effect of such a defense.
"Participants in all TODDI versions, in which there was an alternative suspect, still believed that the defendant seemed guiltier than any one of the alternative suspects. That is, the TODDI story was never better than the prosecution’s story. Yet, adding one TODDI story decreased the number of participants who rendered guilty verdicts from 73% to 35%, and ratings of the likelihood that the defendant committed the crime decreased as well. Adding the second and third TODDI stories was not statistically significantly better than employing a single TODDI story (although all measures of guilt did decline slightly)."

"The results of the current experiment suggest that in court, the addition of one or more alternative suspects would decrease jurors’ belief in the defendant’s guilt, even when the alternative suspect is not actually believed to be the culprit. (See Tenney, Cleary, & Spellman (2009) for more study details.)"


This is a case where there seems to be a big giant black hole between the time BK's phone was in Pullman to where it was near Genesee after the murders. There does not seem to be a victim identification of BK or any eye witness, video or anything else to place him in Moscow. So, IMO, this is a case where an alternate suspect case could work very well.

I also think that the defense will hit on your 1 - 4 issues as well and the fact that the political pressure was on to make a fast arrest due to UofI Moscow turning into a ghost town in the wake of the murders.

All JMO.
Who's the alternative suspect- the SODDI?
 
There’s only one way to introduce that evidence. Which means we’ll never hear it and it would be left up to the jury to conjure that up.

If I’m a juror, I can think of a lot more reasonable of an explanation:

He drove down there and did it. Murdered 4 innocent people and got the sheath ripped off of him. And he was too busy to notice. MOO

Because after his two victims stopped struggling upstairs he heard concerned voices downstairs. So without trying to put his knife away he rushed downstairs to do more murdering. MOO

And by the time he was done with that and noticed his sheath was gone. He knew trying to retrace his steps to find it was pushing his luck. Is it next to wear he fought Ethan? On the bed? Does he turn on the lights? Is it in the hallway? The stairs? Upstairs? He had no clue where it fell off. MOO

Time’s ticking. barking dog. Screams. Struggling People Fighting him for their lives. Thumps. Blood. Adrenaline. Lost in Chaos. Someone SURELY must have called the police in his mind. So he abandoned it and hoped that the meticulous cleaning prior was enough. MOO

That’s much more reasonable than you know…a multi agency coordinated conspiracy involving dozens of law enforcement agencies and fabricated and planted evidence for some odd ball (MOO) grad student nobody from the Poconos.

MOO

Go Ravens!‍⬛
Oftentimes, it's their own cell phone that the criminal drops and leaves behind. In this case it was a knife sheath.
 
It is an outstanding the job law enforcement has done, coast to coast. Now the Prosecutor!

Condolences and heart prints to the families, friends, students, neighbors and all those effected by these murders.
We cheer on those who continue to demand justice and don't stop. Go, go, go, don't stop Go!

Godspeed. We are pulling for all. Seek justice.

Endure.

jmo moo
 
If at all, my guess would be generic. We know LE did a lot of investigating of the usual suspects/inner circle (boyfriends et.al.) imo, and there were many rumours circulating online re this and that guy, food truck guy, neighbour...whoever...which MPD were debunking on an ongoing basis via their public website. Moo

Jmo a specific SODDI won't be the game plan. AT will have a hard time arguing tunnel vision, despite the IGG. The pre BK warrants speak to the investigative lengths LE went to. And moo ISP and FBI were involved early on. My guess is many, many interviews and angles were followed up. I recall the regular press conferences saying as much.

Generic SODDI..maybe AT will insinuate some dude came and went on foot... But via what witnesses? And really that is too much when you have the elantra circling and no one ever having come forward to claim it. Plus generic SODDI will not account for BK's DNA on the sheathe.

I believe AT's main thrust will be along the lines of suggesting DNA is a secondary transfer and or LE accidentally put it there somehow. This is the best they've got imo. If they end up presenting alibi defense in conjunction with DNA 'innocent' transfer, it is not going to be strong imo (my guess: 'look here's a white car on video somewhere at 4am, that's our client'). But any way they turn there are problems because Elantra 'coincidence', out driving coincidence, 12 X prior in the vicinity at unsociable hours coincidence and whatever else the state may have. I think the state have more, much more. Jmo.

The problem with accidental contamination is BK had not been identified at the time - so that rules out lab transfer IMO
 
3) BK: “I bought a knife with a sheath just like that. Of course my DNA was on it. I left it in the drawer of my desk at college and the next day it was gone! I didn’t report it because it wasn’t that expensive and I was stupid for having left it there. LE should have investigated the students and janitorial staff with access to that classroom.”

Yeah, that’s the ticket.
"And - how's this for a coincidence? - right after that my car was stolen overnight, and - would you believe it? - I had left my phone in it! Sheesh, how unlucky can you get?!"
 
You think BK will testify?
That's the only way the info the OP suggested could come in is if BK took the stand. If, and that's a big IF, BK does take the stand, it will be because in his own mind he truly believes he can talk and explain away any and everything.

He's the smartest guy in any room, a CJ Major, a Regional Contemporaneous Speaker winner (fast thinking on his feet) and I think it's possible he might want to get on the stand and show all of us plebs his superior intelligence. The State will be no challenge for BK in his mind.

I think it will come down to whether or not AT will be able to reason with BK, but we know it's ultimately BK's choice, and I honestly don't know what he might do here. I'd put my odds right now at 70-30% that he doesn't.

JMO
 
Oh ok. Now I'm confused! But I'll assume, in playing Devil's advocate, you must still acknowledge despite your belief, that BK may testify either by his own insistence or on the advice of his attorneys?. Because that is the only way to bring this claim into evidence: ie for
BK say his knife disappeared from a draw at WSU as an explanation for his DNA on the use point. Jmo

For many reasons already touched upon by others, BK testifying in the way envisaged by your post would have so many pitfalls. I am guessing absolutely no way this will be the D strategy. Moo
 
The problem with accidental contamination is BK had not been identified at the time - so that rules out lab transfer IMO
Agree, accidental contamination would be a long shot. I doubt it. I also doubt very much that there will be any d case for deliberate set up. Jmo. Despite it also being a long shot, that leaves secondary transfer or d arguing the lab reports are wrong and it's not BK's. Note, I don't think for a minute the latter would be possible to successfully argue, so back to secondary transfer. Moo
 
Not sure if he will or if he won't but I do think he'd very much like to testify. You know, cuz he's the smartest person in the room (city, state, world). Plus, it just feels like the whole thing was a big game, challenge, and/or part of a research project to him (i.e. - His reddit crime research survey). JMO on everything I've said!

Wouldn't it be something if he did testify? Particularly about that great stargazing alibi at the closed park on a foggy night. I'd love to hear what he had to say. And definitely, the smartest person in the room, but we know he's really not, and he left that sheath, and made other critical errors. Could you imagine him up there trying to explain away that sheath? But my guess (only a guess) is that he's at least smart enough to know if he gets up there and starts testifying, he's a dead duck. I doubt it'll happen, but I'd love to see it because it would almost certainly be a catastrophe of epic proportions for the D. And agreed, if the mood strikes him, who knows? Aside from that wack alibi that (jmo) isn't fully in sync with reality, there was that stop with the officer where he couldn't control himself from droning on and on...and on...

The idea of him up on that stand running his mouth off... I can't help but hope. But it's a mixed blessing in that in order for him to run his mouth off, you have to suffer through the experience of having to listen to him.
 
Yes.
I think the Defense will make an effort to dismantle everything the State presents, but the top three are the ones I feel they've given us the most clues that they will pursue.
But there's so much we haven't seen, so perhaps a TODDI might get thrown in there too, as @Balthazar suggests.

Just curious, why wouldn't it?
Do you think a plea bargain will happen before the trial? It looks to me rather like what @Sundog wrote: the Defense will take this all the way to the very top.
JMO

I just "feel" that if all these hail mary motions fail with the Defense, that the Defense will ask for a plea deal to spare the families crime scene photos presented at the trial.

A "typical" defendant would realize he has only a 5% chance of acquittal and would seek a plea.. However, BK seems to be pretty arrogant so that might not be desired.

just my 2 cents worth
 
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