The Hot Zone so named by QPS was near where the screams were heard and the active search zone was from Allison's house radiating out as you say ie the Hot Zone was different to the house as displayed on a map in a CM article before Allison's body was found.
I have seen many of your posts discounting theories put forward for discussion. Based on your verified expertise can you give us a summary of the circumstances and events of Allison's murder in your opinion?
Well, the way I look at it is that we have a very small number of facts - only those that have been confirmed in the MSM or that came out at the bail hearing.
So - there are many theories that have been put forward, and some of those theories may well be either close to the mark, or contain portions of the truth.
But - and this, unfortunately, is where my professional training kicks in - I try to look at what we KNOW (as opposed to what we think) and then try to work around that. I tend to try and think logically, and along evidence-based lines. The way we do in my professional life.
So I tend to read, then discount, some of the "wilder", more "out-there" theories that are based purely on "what if?" scenarios. Or on pure imagination or supposition. There is also a lot of emotive comment made, which is all fine, but doesn't really help in progressing towards a solution.
So, if we take ONLY the known facts, including where the body was found, it really doesn't amount to a lot that hangs together. Even the blood in the back of the car doesn't help us a lot, because the only other thing we know is that the defence allege that the only injury was the chipped tooth.
We have a person reported missing by her husband. We have a history of affairs. We have some very strange behaviour by the husband and his family. We have blood - apparently Allison's - in the back of one of the cars, but of an age that can't be determined that we know of.
We have the body of Allison found purely by chance, at a location which introduces a whole new set of factors - the proximity to the scout camp (given the BC's close ties to the scouts), the state of the body apparently giving the police some clues (but WE don't know what those are).
We have reports of screams somewhere along Rafting Ground Rd (which, by chance, happens to be the shortest route from the BC house to both the BC Seniors' house, and also to the road leading to Kholo Creek). But, as can be seen from posts over the last few days, there is some disagreement as to WHERE exactly those screams originated, given that the house of the man who reported them is quite some distance from Rees Way.
Apart from that - we really don't have too many facts.
There are all sorts of unconfirmed partial facts, such as NBC sitting at one of the bus stops near the roundabout at Kenmore. We have the very strange focus by the police on that same roundabout - but we have no idea why, exactly.
So - lots of guesses, lots of maybes, lots of character assessments, lots of presumptions, lots of - yes, sleuthing. And a lot of it is good stuff.
But - we still come back to the basic problem - we don't have anywhere NEAR enough facts on which to base theories. That's why I have posted a couple of times that unexpected twists should not come as a surprise.
As to MY theory? I don't have one. I'm deliberately trying NOT to have one.
Now the police have got a LOT more facts than we do, and they seem pretty convinced that GBC did it. But how, why, where? I don't even know whether THEY know it all yet.
And of course, there HAS to remain the possibility that GBC may NOT have done it... He may have been up to no good in all sorts of ways, and he may indeed have been up to some mischief on that night - about which he may want to say nothing and hence his silence and refusal to cooperate.
But that is about as far as my summary of things goes at the moment. I know that my continuing to harp on about reverting to the facts can rub some people the wrong way, but really, isn't that what real sleuthing is all about?
Sorry for the long post. Just off to get some work-related stuff prepared for tomorrow, so will be missing in action for a couple of hours. Or hiding behind the sofa ducking from the incoming flak..... :truce:
