Just read up on some stats in an attempt to understand the police movements and investigative procedures following the grandmother’s report. (I have also shared the National SAR manual below, it’s a fantastic resource and insight into stats and strategies used. I highly recommend you take a look at the appendix’s relevant to the case if you are interested in how it all works.)
I’ll share some findings/areas of interest below.
Disclaimer: To simplify things for those who hate numbers and graphs, I pulled data from several sources and averaged out the results as best I can with (approximate) percentages. Aka, I’m geeking out. I love consuming information and stats but math is not my finest flex so do feel free to access the reports and data at one’s leisure.
Data from
similar cases in rural Australia:
- 90% of children
located after one week were
deceased (exposure, dehydration and terrain related injuries are the main causes of death.)
- 90-95% of children <10 are found
alive within 48 hours (this percentage drops slightly to 80-90% for children <6 within
24 hours) IMO the percentage relevant to Gus’s age-group highlights the urgency for
immediate response/reporting and rapid search and rescue mobilisation, particularly in
rural areas.)
- Within the subset of children found
alive after
one week, around 20-30% had been
abducted. This accounts for roughly 1% of rural cases in Australia.
Overall averages for children <10 reported missing in
rural Australia:
- 80-95% found
alive
- 10-15% found
deceased of which 80-90% are accidental/environmental and 10-20% are victims of homicide
- 1-2% cases
overall (meaning found
and not found) are
confirmed homicide.
Sources:
key
searches - annual reports, missing person cases and statistics
search and rescue manual -https://www.amsa.gov.au/sites/default/files/natsar-manual-february-2025-final-v2.pdf
(Page 457 - stats and strategies relevant to Gus’s age-group)
www.police.sa.gov.au
www.missingpersons.gov.au