Analysis: Oak Park Station vs the Reported 470 km² Search Area
I’ve been looking more closely at the actual size of Oak Park Station, and the numbers are pretty striking when compared to what Commissioner Grant Stevens said today.
Using PlanSA and LocationSA data, the parcels that appear linked to the Oak Park homestead (all under CT 5959/876) add up to roughly 75–80 square kilometres, around 7,500–8,000 hectares. These cover several adjoining blocks within the
Grampus locality. That’s likely the freehold core of the station.
It’s possible Oak Park’s operations extend beyond that under pastoral lease or adjoining land, but this mapped portion matches the homestead area. The southern boundary directly adjoins the Pualco Range Conservation Park, so that would naturally form part of the extended search zone.
Now, police have said the total search area is about 470 square kilometres. If that’s accurate, it equates to a 12.2 km radius from a central point, more than six times larger than the Oak Park titles I could find. Even if the full property is bigger than what’s on record, it’s still a huge footprint for one station.
I’m not an expert in search operations, but from a practical point of view, that’s an enormous area for a four-year-old to have travelled on foot in this terrain. It feels like the search area has expanded well beyond what would be expected for a simple “wander-off” scenario.
A few thoughts that might explain it:
- The 470 km² might be a cumulative figure for multiple ground and air grids over several days.
- The area probably includes neighbouring pastoral leases and conservation land like Pualco Range CP.
- Or, it may reflect the reality that police are keeping all possibilities open, even if they’re not ready to say that outright.
That’s where the Commissioner’s comments start to sound a little contradictory. He said:
“To ensure we leave no stone unturned in our efforts to recover Gus from the property.”
and
“There is no evidence to suggest any other circumstances that may have resulted in Gus not being located, but we also have an obligation to consider all possibilities, and that’s part of our work going forward.”
Both lines are telling. The first seems to confine their focus to
the property, while the second quietly acknowledges that other possibilities are being looked at. Yet their actions, a 470 km² search, clearly go beyond a single station boundary.
So while the public message is calm and contained, what’s actually happening on the ground suggests something broader. There’s a definite mismatch between the language and the scale of what’s unfolding, and that’s hard to ignore.
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