Australia Australia - Celine Cremer, 31, Belgium backpacker, car found at the Philosopher’s fall track, Waratah, Tasmania, 12 June 2023

[tarabull]

Five bones, teeth and car key found in Tasmanian search for missing backpacker Celine Cremer

Police have been searching for Belgian tourist, 31, since she went missing near Cradle Mountain in June 2023

www.theguardian.com

 

[Cedars]

Why she would have done this, we'll never know, but crossing the river would also explain why Ted Mead found footprints on both the North and Eastern banks of the Arthur River. Maybe the river is not as brutal down stream in winter as suggested.


Given that all the remains have been found relatively close together, perhaps she never had a backpack with her. I don't think it's ever been confirmed, aside from her mum telling the friend about a possible compass on the strap of the backpack in Rob's video. Céline intended to go on a short walk, so it would make sense not to bring a backpack. It would mean she carried the glass water bottle some other way however, which in turn might explain why she left it, as it became a burden.



The Butler Road theory doesn't make any sense to me either. It seems so apparant to follow the river upstream, as all the landmarks on the map she was intently studying on her phone just hours earlier are in that direction. I like Rob's theory however, that she used the river only as a guide to locate the water race, since she knew it to run parallel to the river, and that was the landmark she was focused on finding.

Possibly she was hypothermic (or for another reason,) just not clear-minded any more.

 

[silvernblack]

Nice simple explanations with the maps. What is that map showing where it heads up to the upper left and dead-ends?

It appears that the final, fateful mistake came after Celine left the shelter with the bag and bottle. Without her phone to orient herself, she tried to head back toward the carpark and came close, but fatally missed the turnoff. Instead she went straight ahead, crossed the water race and continued on towards the Arthur River. I think that if she’d made that pivotal right‑hand turn back toward the falls and carpark, she would’ve made it out. I remember Rob mentioning Celine crossing the water race but didn't understand its significance until I saw the image below.

 

[Grouse]

Nice simple explanations with the maps. What is that map showing where it heads up to the upper left and dead-ends?

Think that's the path to Magnet dam

 

[Rocket333]

Nice simple explanations with the maps. What is that map showing where it heads up to the upper left and dead-ends?

At the dam? I think she realised she’d gone the wrong way or too far and turned around. Whilst returning or trying to retrace her steps, she left the track and ended up in that area where she lost her phone.

 

[Chiatos]

I have two unanswered questions:

1. Celine's purpose of her hike, was to visit the waterfalls. The metal stairs that take to the waterfalls are very evident. Her phone's timeline shows that she would not have had time to visit the waterfall, in order to give that ping at Magnet dam at 15:32.
Why would Celine have skipped visiting the waterfall?

2. How could Celine's phone have sent a ping indicating Waratah's Golf Course as its geolocation on the next day???? That ping has nothing to do with the presence of any cell mast in the vicinity.

 

[Grouse]

I have two unanswered questions:

1. Celine's purpose of her hike, was to visit the waterfalls. The metal stairs that take to the waterfalls are very evident. Her phone's timeline shows that she would not have had time to visit the waterfall, in order to give that ping at Magnet dam at 15:32.
Why would Celine have skipped visiting the waterfall?

2. How could Celine's phone have sent a ping indicating Waratah's Golf Course as its geolocation on the next day???? That ping has nothing to do with the presence of any cell mast in the vicinity.

do you have a source for the golf course ping information?

 

[Chiatos]

do you have a source for the golf course ping information?

It's in Rob's YT

Rob explained the various GPS locations and how the phone kept 'pinging' after 15:32 on June 17th.

On June 17th, at 16:18 hrs; -41.4638627, 145.4576527, that's in the area where the phone was found during the last searches. This was the LAST GPS of the day, established by Google Maps. There were no pings after that, until the next day, June 18th, at 05:22. So I'm asking myself: could the phone have been switched off?

The next day, June 18th, the phone 'pinged' at 05:22hrs, at location -41.4459406, 145.5369586, this is at the golf course. This a CELL ONLY ping and that remained STATIONARY until 08:08hrs.

As from 18 June, 08:10 hrs; -41.445955, 145.56361, this is at Waratah Road, 600m from golf corse location CELL ONLY until the phone finally went dead.

Rob explains the difference between 'GPS-pings' and 'CELL ONLY-pings' eccetera. He also explains how it has been possible to get a couple of 'cell mast pings' from the cell masts between the GPS-pings, during the time that the phone was located in the area of the Philosopher's Falls / trail / Magnet Dam. That is fine.

The problem with the ping of June 18th at 05:22 is that it does not indicate the location of a cell mast. There is no cell mast at the golf course!!!
And why were there no pings at all between 16:18 on June 17th and 05:22 on June 18th?? Why didn't he phone keep on pinging as it had done before 16:18 and after 05:22 of the next day? Why 13 hours silence?

 

[Grouse]

It's in Rob's YT

Rob explained the various GPS locations and how the phone kept 'pinging' after 15:32 on June 17th.

On June 17th, at 16:18 hrs; -41.4638627, 145.4576527, that's in the area where the phone was found during the last searches. This was the LAST GPS of the day, established by Google Maps. There were no pings after that, until the next day, June 18th, at 05:22. So I'm asking myself: could the phone have been switched off?

The next day, June 18th, the phone 'pinged' at 05:22hrs, at location -41.4459406, 145.5369586, this is at the golf course. This a CELL ONLY ping and that remained STATIONARY until 08:08hrs.

As from 18 June, 08:10 hrs; -41.445955, 145.56361, this is at Waratah Road, 600m from golf corse location CELL ONLY until the phone finally went dead.

Rob explains the difference between 'GPS-pings' and 'CELL ONLY-pings' eccetera. He also explains how it has been possible to get a couple of 'cell mast pings' from the cell masts between the GPS-pings, during the time that the phone was located in the area of the Philosopher's Falls / trail / Magnet Dam. That is fine.

The problem with the ping of June 18th at 05:22 is that it does not indicate the location of a cell mast. There is no cell mast at the golf course!!!
And why were there no pings at all between 16:18 on June 17th and 05:22 on June 18th?? Why didn't he phone keep on pinging as it had done before 16:18 and after 05:22 of the next day? Why 13 hours silence?

Think Rob explains it as a "random ping being given off by a cell tower" (circa 10:55 in the video).

I jotted down some of the cell only coordinates below from the video (around 11:36 ,in the video) and seems there were some pings to that golf course location at other times

-41.445955, 145.56361 - 17/06 21:59 (Waratah Road)
-41.4459406, 145.5369586 17/06 22:01 (golf course?)

-41.4459406, 145.5369586 18/06 17:46 (golf course?)
-41.4459406, 145.5369586 18/06 22:01(golf course?)
-41.445955, 145.56361 - 18/06 22:23 (Waratah Road)

edit: so in fact it does seem to flick between those two locations quite a bit.

 

[Chiatos]

I jotted down some of the cell only coordinates below from the video (around 11:36 ,in the video) and seems there were some pings to that golf course location at other times

I don't get it: in this image, you can see what I mean. Apparently it's from another YT of Rob's, because here he is wearing a microphone, whereas in the YT that I linked before, he has no mike attached to his shirt....

 

[Chiatos]

I jotted down some of the cell

Found it:

There's a gap of 13 hours between the last 'GPS-ping' 16:18 and the first 'CELL-ping' of 05:22 on June 18th.
(Unrelated to the server delay mentioned in the right column.)

 

[Grouse]

Found it:

There's a gap of 13 hours between the last 'GPS-ping' 16:18 and the first 'CELL-ping' of 05:22 on June 18th.
(Unrelated to the server delay mentioned in the right column.)

do you have the location in that video?

I'm struggling to see anything odd here, we have the last GPS ping at 16:18:50 at the location near where the phone was found and then later it's just cell pings at those two locations in Waratah (presumably cell tower?). Then much later the phone is found - near the last GPS ping. Seems unlikely to me that the phone would go from being near where it last pinged via GPS, to Waratah, and then back to where it was found, especially given the finding of the bottle/poncho on the route from the phone to the location to where remains were found.

Not an area I'm massively up on but if it's a low signal area might it be normal for there to be long gaps in cell pings when the phone is not being used? Do we know where cell towers are in Waratah, I've not been able to find any maps of them.

edit: have just watched part of the video you linked and Rob in fact says that those gaps, and then the pings at the same times on the mornings of 18th and 19th, are indicative that the phone wasn't moving (but was in an area somewhere between good coverage ,like the top of the hill, and no coverage, like the contours around the hill).

 

[Chiatos]

do you have the location in that video?

Sorry, forgot to mention, it´s at 3:50, so at the beginning of the video.

 

[Grouse]

Sorry, forgot to mention, it´s at 3:50, so at the beginning of the video.

yeah I found it thanks, see my edit to my post above

 

[Chiatos]

have just watched part of the video you linked and Rob in fact says that those gaps, and then the pings at the same times on the mornings of 18th and 19th,

I mean something else.

There are TWO different 'times' involved regarding the location data:
1. generation time of a GPS location (whether GPS, CELL, or Wifi)
2. relay time, delivery time, i.e. the time at which the generated time is delivered at the cell MAST or SERVER

There is always a time gap between generation time and delivery time. It can vary from: almost instant, to half an hour delay, or even days delay, depending on the connectivity.

The problem or question does not concern the delivery times.

There seems to be a problem with the generation times.
There is a 13 hour gap between:
- generation time 17 June 16:18hrs-> generated in the bush (it's delivery time was of course later than 16:18)
- and generation time 18 June 05:22-> generated at the golf course (??) (it's delivery time was of course later than on 18 June 05:22)

That gap of 13 hours is a red flag.

 

[Grouse]

I mean something else.

There are TWO different 'times' involved regarding the location data:
1. generation time of a GPS location (whether GPS, CELL, or Wifi)
2. relay time, delivery time, i.e. the time at which the generated time is delivered at the cell MAST or SERVER

There is always a time gap between generation time and delivery time. It can vary from: almost instant, to half an hour delay, or even days delay, depending on the connectivity.

The problem or question does not concern the delivery times.

There seems to be a problem with the generation times.
There is a 13 hour gap between:
- generation time 17 June 16:18hrs-> generated in the bush (it's delivery time was of course later than 16:18)
- and generation time 18 June 05:22-> generated at the golf course (??) (it's delivery time was of course later than on 18 June 05:22)

That gap of 13 hours is a red flag.

I don't see how it can be said to be generated at the golf course. In your screenshot above (post #230) there are a group of GPS pings from the forest with a CELL ping in the middle. The location for that CELL ping is in the middle of Waratah but the phone clearly wasn't in Waratah.

-41.4630834,145.4568923 16:14:46 GPS
-41.4455263,145.5321958 16:16:33 CELL
-41.4635712,145.4576277 16:17:00 GPS

Also I think he explained about those gaps in the generation times.