I tried to find out about the potential success of a landfill search, statistically as opposed to opinion.
According to the only study I could find (from North America, done in 2019) there is at least a 50% chance Lesley will be found.
Although, I think it is possible that because it has been less than 30 days since Lesley disappeared, there might be a greater chance. Seems to me that it would be a case of the sooner, the better.
A comprehensive analysis of landfill searches for human remains suggests if searchers don't start within a month of a body ending up in a landfill — and commit to spending at least as long looking — the potential for recovery drops dramatically.
"At the 30-day mark, the chances of being successful are near even, but they drop precipitously after a month has passed"
The authors of the American study, which was published in the journal Forensic Archaeology in January 2019, reviewed 46 landfill searches in the U.S. between 1999 and 2009. Of those, 20 — or 43 per cent — were successful. The successful searches took 17 days on average.
Searches that got underway within 30 days of remains being deposited were most successful, and searching for at least 30 days also increased the odds of success. Over 90 per cent of the successful recoveries happened within that "magic" window, said Paulsen.
The study discourages law enforcement from searching after two months had passed.
"There was instances of recovery after 30 days, but it was much, much rarer"
www.abc.net.au
www.mandurahmail.com.au
