Australia Australia - Theo Hayez, 18, Belgian backpacker, Byron Bay, June 2019 #3

[CKTC]

Which is exactly why I wonder why so many people think the other gps points are so accurate.

Either they all need to be considered inaccurate or they all need to be considered accurate.

Otherwise it is just manipulating data to suit differing and/or preferred scenarios. imo

Each google data point has its own accuracy level when downloaded from google takeout, so they can all be evaluated individually.

 

[SouthAussie]

Each google data point has its own accuracy level when downloaded from google takeout, so they can all be evaluated individually.

And how is that accuracy measured exactly? As in, who measures the accuracy? What is used to measure the accuracy? Are there gps experts involved in this process?

I am sorry to be so questioning, but I am not having much confidence in the gps points. And I think that it is possible that inaccuracies might be why Theo hasn't been found.

Many of the gps points in no way fall into the telecomms 60 degree range. So if Theo's phone was continuously pinging within that 60 degree range, I think that there is inaccuracy in some/many gps points.

 

[CKTC]

It’s unfortunate because I’ve wanted to know what the various psychics have thought. The psychics aren’t allowed to post in the LFTH FB page either. Where is there a safe space for them or anyone else interested in what they have to say?

Hundreds of psychic insights sent to volunteers and the email address [email protected] have been collected and analysed for common themes. Psychics have frequently posted on the LFTH page.

 

[CKTC]

And how is that accuracy measured exactly? As in, who measures the accuracy? What is used to measure the accuracy? Are there gps experts involved in this process?

I am sorry to be so questioning, but I am not having much confidence in the gps points. And I think that it is possible that inaccuracies might be why Theo hasn't been found.

Many of the gps points in no way fall into the telecomms 60 degree range. So if Theo's phone was continuously pinging within that 60 degree range, I think that there is inaccuracy in some/many gps points.

I’m no expert in this area at all but my understanding is that google data points are derived from a variety of satellite, wifi, and cell tower sources, depending on what is available. The accuracy then depends on the source of the data, with satellite data being the most accurate.

Due to the topography of the land and the limited cell towers in Byron, my guess would be that ping data from cell towers is less accurate than the google data.

 

[SouthAussie]

I’m no expert in this area at all but my understanding is that google data points are derived from a variety of satellite, wifi, and cell tower sources, depending on what is available. The accuracy then depends on the source of the data, with satellite data being the most accurate.

Due to the topography of the land and the limited cell towers in Byron, my guess would be that ping data from cell towers is less accurate than the google data.

The range of the telecomms 60 degree angle would be accurate. It is the not knowing within that range ... due to triangulation being impossible ... of exactly where Theo's phone was when it was pinging. But it would have been within that 60 degree range. imo

The towers are pointed in certain directions to include as much of the tower-using population as possible (homes, businesses, etc). The tower range is also sometimes adjusted (tweaked, swivelled) when it needs to be, if it is not being able to be used by the majority of users.

When I worked in telecomms I know of different times when towers were 'swivelled' to adjust the focus of their range.

I personally think the gps points should be overlaid with the telecomms 60 degree range, and see where that takes it. Then the gps points can be adjusted to suit a variety of known deviations in gps points, and get those gps points within the tower range. I think something like this might lead the investigation closer to Theo.

 

[CKTC]

C

The range of the telecomms 60 degree angle would be accurate. It is the not knowing within that range ... due to triangulation being impossible ... of exactly where Theo's phone was when it was pinging. But it would have been within that 60 degree range. imo

The towers are pointed in certain directions to include as much of the tower-using population as possible (homes, businesses, etc). The tower range is also sometimes adjusted (tweaked, swivelled) when it needs to be, if it is not being able to be used by the majority of users.

When I worked in telecomms I know of different times when towers were 'swivelled' to adjust the focus of their range.

I personally think the gps points should be overlaid with the telecomms 60 degree range, and see where that takes it. Then the gps points can be adjusted to suit a variety of known deviations in gps points, and get those gps points within the tower range. I think something like this might lead the investigation closer to Theo.

Do you know where the 60 degrees figure came from originally? I thought one sector of a cell tower covered 120 degrees?

 

[SouthAussie]

C

Do you know where the 60 degrees figure came from originally? I thought one sector of a cell tower covered 120 degrees?

It might take me some time, but I can try to find it (or others can help). A 60 degree range would make sense on that tower as it would focus the services to where the people are. Much more than that range and some of its services would be focussed onto the ocean ... which would be pretty useless.

Tower ranges are all variable. They try to utilise the services toward the best points for the majority to use.
In a city the range might completely circle the tower, in other areas the range will be focussed in certain directions - depending where the homes/businesses/etc are (as well as where obstructions like mountains are).

I gained these kind of understandings from telecomms engineers who I worked with.

 

[CKTC]

It might take me some time, but I can try to find it (or others can help). A 60 degree range would make sense on that tower as it would focus the services to where the people are. Much more than that range and some of its services would be focussed onto the ocean ... which would be pretty useless.

Tower ranges are all variable. They try to utilise the services toward the best points for the majority to use.
In a city the range might completely circle the tower, in other areas the range will be focussed in certain directions - depending where the homes/businesses/etc are (as well as where obstructions like mountains are).

I gained these kind of understandings from telecomms engineers who I worked with.

Great info, thanks. Maybe it’s important to firstly verify the angle of that cell sector? Not sure how to do that though...

 

[SouthAussie]

Great info, thanks. Maybe it’s important to firstly verify the angle of that cell sector? Not sure how to do that though...

All I have found so far is that the police gave the 60 degree angle.

"Police mentioned only the tower nearby Milne track and the 60 degree angle from that tower to the lighthouse and West (from the lighthouse)."
Australia - Australia - Theo Hayez, 18, Belgian backpacker, Byron Bay, June 2019 #2

Theo’s phone pinged a tower that encompasses the area from Clarkes Beach to the Lighthouse in Byron Bay before 2pm on June 1.
Looking for Théo Hayez

A member (I think) replicated the said angle. It has been posted here before.

 

[psyslueth]

Hundreds of psychic insights sent to volunteers and the email address [email protected] have been collected and analysed for common themes. Psychics have frequently posted on the LFTH page.

haha, psychics who post the page are threatened to be blocked or the comments deleted if they dont use the email address

 

[Pod]

The podcast said there was a drop in signal between 2-4am. 6am it came out of sleep mode. There seems to be no GPS data since location tracking shut off after leaving the vine alcove. They're going off tower pings. All this is listed a few pages back where there is a real good timeline if you want to view that, plus some possibilities of what 'low signal' could mean.

It definitely says 2-6am in the podcast, not 2-4am.

 

[mussopossum]

It might take me some time, but I can try to find it (or others can help). A 60 degree range would make sense on that tower as it would focus the services to where the people are. Much more than that range and some of its services would be focussed onto the ocean ... which would be pretty useless.

Tower ranges are all variable. They try to utilise the services toward the best points for the majority to use.
In a city the range might completely circle the tower, in other areas the range will be focussed in certain directions - depending where the homes/businesses/etc are (as well as where obstructions like mountains are).

I gained these kind of understandings from telecomms engineers who I worked with.

SA you are one wealth on information

 

[Rocket333]

Top security expert arrives in BB....

 

[Rocket333]

It might take me some time, but I can try to find it (or others can help). A 60 degree range would make sense on that tower as it would focus the services to where the people are. Much more than that range and some of its services would be focussed onto the ocean ... which would be pretty useless.

Tower ranges are all variable. They try to utilise the services toward the best points for the majority to use.
In a city the range might completely circle the tower, in other areas the range will be focussed in certain directions - depending where the homes/businesses/etc are (as well as where obstructions like mountains are).

I gained these kind of understandings from telecomms engineers who I worked with.

Frederic Marx is discussing this same thing on closed group Theo Discussion page.
“With the time difference of arrival (TDoA) technique, the mobile sends a signal to the antenna stations; the nearest one sends back the signal. It is the time elapsed between the emission and the reception of the signal (the round-trip delay time) which allows an external calculator to determine the location of the portable. So, on a map, you could draw a circle and identify where was Theo mobile in a range of 60 degrees with a relative precise distance. Google is not required here.”
“There are two methods of tracking mobile with cell towers. Active or passive tracking.
Passive tracking uses triangulation to determine the approximate localization of the mobile in the cell so the antennas can route the calls to the right direction. It uses information from one up to three different cell towers and indeed this method is less accurate due to the environment and uses old technologies.
Now more and more cell towers uses active tracking. With this in place, localization and coordinates are sent by each mobile within small messages to the cell towers. It allows to determine the exact localization of the mobile at any time and is very useful for GSM providers as you can imagine. Do you know whether active tracking infrastructure is available in Byron Bay?“
“It should not affect the speed of the signal but the strength. So the computed distance to any mobile will be the same regardless of the environment.”
“Sheri D'Rosario By any chance have you seen those imprecise signals logged in the antennas? Do you confirm the signals are inacurate knowing your exact location?”
“I think there is a misunderstanding when they mentionned the ping responses. Usually ping response is related to network services like Intranet or Internet access and is a small packet on the network that is transmitted to verify whether you are reachable or not.
A mobile that does not have an affected channel is defined as being in idle mode. While in idle mode it is important that the mobile is both able to access and be reached by the system. The mobile receives parameters from the relays and all controlling parameters are transmitted on a broadcast carrier in each cell. Moreover to be able to access the system from anywhere in the network, regardless of wether the mobile is on/off, it has to be able to select a specific GSM station, tune to its frequency and listen to the system information messages transmitted in that cell. It must also be able to register its current location to the network so that the network knows where to route the incoming calls.
And because of that I can’t explain the reason why they can’t identify the location of the mobile unless they are looking into the provider logfiles (ping response) instead of looking closely to the GSM base stations logfiles.”
General Discussion

 

[SouthAussie]

Frederic Marx is discussing this same thing on closed group Theo Discussion page.
“With the time difference of arrival (TDoA) technique, the mobile sends a signal to the antenna stations; the nearest one sends back the signal. It is the time elapsed between the emission and the reception of the signal (the round-trip delay time) which allows an external calculator to determine the location of the portable. So, on a map, you could draw a circle and identify where was Theo mobile in a range of 60 degrees with a relative precise distance. Google is not required here.”
“There are two methods of tracking mobile with cell towers. Active or passive tracking.
Passive tracking uses triangulation to determine the approximate localization of the mobile in the cell so the antennas can route the calls to the right direction. It uses information from one up to three different cell towers and indeed this method is less accurate due to the environment and uses old technologies.
Now more and more cell towers uses active tracking. With this in place, localization and coordinates are sent by each mobile within small messages to the cell towers. It allows to determine the exact localization of the mobile at any time and is very useful for GSM providers as you can imagine. Do you know whether active tracking infrastructure is available in Byron Bay?“
“It should not affect the speed of the signal but the strength. So the computed distance to any mobile will be the same regardless of the environment.”
“Sheri D'Rosario By any chance have you seen those imprecise signals logged in the antennas? Do you confirm the signals are inacurate knowing your exact location?”
“I think there is a misunderstanding when they mentionned the ping responses. Usually ping response is related to network services like Intranet or Internet access and is a small packet on the network that is transmitted to verify whether you are reachable or not.
A mobile that does not have an affected channel is defined as being in idle mode. While in idle mode it is important that the mobile is both able to access and be reached by the system. The mobile receives parameters from the relays and all controlling parameters are transmitted on a broadcast carrier in each cell. Moreover to be able to access the system from anywhere in the network, regardless of wether the mobile is on/off, it has to be able to select a specific GSM station, tune to its frequency and listen to the system information messages transmitted in that cell. It must also be able to register its current location to the network so that the network knows where to route the incoming calls.
And because of that I can’t explain the reason why they can’t identify the location of the mobile unless they are looking into the provider logfiles (ping response) instead of looking closely to the GSM base stations logfiles.”
General Discussion

Thanks, yes. I agree that the 60 degree angle will be quite precise. No google required for that.

The commenter evidently has a good degree of telecomms engineering knowledge.

An attempt should be made to line the gps points up within the 60 degree angle. imo
Starting with the ones that have been unable to be replicated, which are quite a few, I believe. And take into account the known deviances in gps points.
A difficult task that will, no doubt, take some expert input.

 

[psyslueth]

Does anyone know, is the CCTV footage leaving Cheeky Monkeys around that corner accurate? Or did he begin the walk in the other direction toward Childe Street and turn around. Then come back around the corner from Cheeky Monkeys down to the Rec a little later long, say he went to the top of childe street and turned around how long would that take to get back to the CM and come around that corner? Also please opinions on the grey car across the road as he turns around the corner sitting with headlights on. Could someone have been watching him? Then followed him?

 

[psyslueth]

Does anyone know, is the CCTV footage leaving Cheeky Monkeys around that corner accurate? Or did he begin the walk in the other direction toward Childe Street and turn around. Then come back around the corner from Cheeky Monkeys down to the Rec a little later long, say he went to the top of childe street and turned around how long would that take to get back to the CM and come around that corner? Also please opinions on the grey car across the road as he turns around the corner sitting with headlights on. Could someone have been watching him? Then followed him?

did the GPS data start from him leaving Cheeky Monkeys? Was there a time delay between being kicked out officially out the door then standing outside footage pics to then walking around the corner at 11.0 something whatever it was. Maybe his knees are dirty on pants because he had already been kicked out and had time to walk the other direction to the hostel and then something happened that made him turn around and he then is standing back outside CM talking to the bouncer and people again then walks around the corner..? I dont know just thoughts..

 

[Rocket333]

did the GPS data start from him leaving Cheeky Monkeys? Was there a time delay between being kicked out officially out the door then standing outside footage pics to then walking around the corner at 11.0 something whatever it was. Maybe his knees are dirty on pants because he had already been kicked out and had time to walk the other direction to the hostel and then something happened that made him turn around and he then is standing back outside CM talking to the bouncer and people again then walks around the corner..? I dont know just thoughts..

There’s images of him in CMs (family viewed this) and also exiting the place. He then turns directly into Kingsley as per the clip we’ve all seen. Think from memory he was only in the bar for an hour before leaving.

 

[Rocket333]

I can’t remember who it was that climbed recently into the CC lantana, and I’m keen to know exactly where this was along the beach and in relation to the end of the beach please.

SIX Maps

 

[Rocket333]

Just read about this app (and downloaded it), and watched the YouTube clip on it. Not sure if it’s useful, but if so maybe someone in BB could test it from CC.

OpenSignal is an app that “locates individual network masts and their signal, whether they're directional or omnidirectional.

https://apps.apple.com/au/app/opensignal-speed-test-maps/