Lot to chew on there,
@Bluedreamer . You make a cogent argument.
That said, I was just reading this (don’t think it’s been posted):
There he was murdered. Miles north of Interstate 10, past acres of untouched desert, he was shot in the back of the head. The murderer’s bullet tore through the victim’s brain, exiting through his mouth. A likely scenario for the human skull found in Buckeye, according to the father of missing...
inbuckeye.com
It goes into more detail about the weeks prior to his disappearance and apparent mental health issues. On the one hand, this is the simplest explanation.
On another hand, there are the strange anomalies, the Jeep and the infamous restarts, the rancher who claims it wasn’t in that ravine a few days prior to discovery, the phone calls that morning (which could’ve been something like “I’m quitting”/cries for help/etc; I don’t think we know the contents, do we?)
On the third hand, the kind of corporate conspiracy you’re suggesting as an alternative hypothesis, while possible, also opens up more questions than we can answer or reasonably speculate upon. He calls his supervisor’s supervisor, who happens to know a “fixer”, available on short notice. This fixer is somehow able to get to Buckeye and find Daniel after he leaves the well site at 9am and then <something occurs>. But they leave his phone with the Jeep (why not take it? Easy enough to assume the missing Daniel took it with him, or maybe it got thrown out during the collision and lost in the sands.). Why go rifle through his home computer after he was reported missing (and not just go grab it same day?) Etc.
So while I do think you make a logical argument based on reasonable speculation, I just don’t see how the actual mechanics of such a scheme would work.
I get what you mean about mental health being the simplest explanation on the surface. Every podcast brings it up and the police report leans in that direction. If all we had were some well data and Daniel’s disappearance, I might agree it was just a strange coincidence, a really strange and connected coincidence.
But that’s not all we have. We also have the vehicle data, which in my opinion points directly to foul play and a police department that refuses to acknowledge how that data is supposed to be read because they know what it actually proves.
My last post was a lot to chew on, so I apologize in advance for this one.
People often talk about “anomalies” in Daniel’s Jeep data, things like the extra miles, the ignition cycles, inconsistent crash data, and so on. But they’re not anomalies at all once you understand how the systems actually work. When read correctly, the data tells a straightforward story and every data point is accounted for.
My opinion is that before we ever get into motive, the car data and surrounding facts prove foul play and staging beyond a reasonable doubt. Regardless of whatever mental problems Daniel may or may not have had, someone staged the Jeep into the ravine and it wasn’t Daniel.
Let’s go through some of the pieces of evidence in Daniel’s case and give the simplest explanations for each, based on how the data actually works, not the way the private investigator misread it or the way Buckeye PD tried to explain it away.
Search efforts should have found the Jeep- Major Lane of the Civil Air Patrol said there was a very good chance Daniel would be located because he had both a vehicle and a last known location. The Jeep was later found
only two miles away, in clear view from the search area, with a
BRIGHT ORANGE REFLECTIVE VEST on the ground next to it. The fact it wasn’t spotted during initial searches strongly suggests it wasn’t there yet.
The rancher supports this- The rancher who ultimately found the Jeep said he had been through that area multiple times in the days before and never saw it. Given how visible it was when he finally did, the most logical conclusion is that the Jeep was moved there later.
40 plus ignition cycles after the crash (NOT RESTARTS) - The Jeep logged over forty ignition attempts after the airbags deployed. Crash lockout kept it from restarting, so every press of the button recorded a failed ignition. And if the Jeep was on its side in the ravine, it would have been nearly impossible for Daniel himself to be the one pressing that button. Someone else was trying to get it running later, when it wasn’t crashed on its side in the ravine, after the first crash. Again, the simplest explanation for why they are there.
The 12:54 p.m. infotainment log- Private investigator Jeff McGrath misread this as the crash time, but the infotainment in the 2017 uconnect system only records start times. That means 12:54pm was when the Jeep was turned back on, hours after Daniel’s phone stopped moving in the ravine. The mileage on that log matched the crash data because the Jeep had already wrecked, and this was it being restarted after the crash. Whoever did it likely used the manual to override crash lock.
12:54 p.m. log and 11 miles ignored- Buckeye PD PI ignored and tried to explain away what this data actually shows. The simplest explanation is that they knew it proved the Jeep was restarted and moved after a crash by the ravine, something that doesn’t fit an accident narrative.
11 extra miles- The odometer shows 11 miles driven after the crash, which don’t appear in the crash data because they happened afterward. Jeep experts say this is normal because crashed vehicles often restart and move after airbags deploy. Daniel’s Jeep did the same.
Phone and Jeep separated- Daniel’s phone stopped moving in the ravine around 10:32 a.m., yet the Jeep was restarted at 12:54 p.m. and driven 11 miles. The data proves the phone and Jeep were not together, one stayed in the ravine, the other was moved. Daniel’s phone had service and power the entire day.
The Jeep was staged back in the ravine- If the Jeep left without the phone, and the phone was later found inside when police recovered it, someone had to move the phone back into the vehicle and stage the scene.
The Jeep’s location doesn’t match the first crash data- Accident reconstruction experts said the speed required to hit the ravine at 30 mph was unattainable given the terrain. The Jeep’s final resting place and its damage don’t line up, which makes sense if it wasn’t actually wrecked into the ravine originally, which is what the data shows.
Police tried to offload the Jeep immediately- The day after it was found, Buckeye PD encouraged David Robinson to look inside and then told him he needed to tow it out of impound right away or start paying storage fees. The simplest explanation is that if David took it that quickly, police were off the hook for collecting evidence, which is exactly what happened.
Buckeye PD freaked out over infotainment- When they learned Jeff McGrath planned to pull the Jeep’s infotainment data, they knew it would eventually prove the vehicle had been restarted and moved after a crash by the ravine, something they couldn’t explain away as a one-time accident.
Matching socks at two locations- Another sock was found back by the second well site, and another matching sock was recovered in the ravine near the Jeep. That suggests something happened by the second well site and points to staging, since it makes little sense for Daniel’s clothing to be split across miles of desert unless items were being moved.
Police theories avoided water entirely- In the report and in media coverage, every possible motive was floated except the one tied to Daniel’s actual job site: cartel activity, mental health struggles, injury after the crash, a random stranger encounter, Billy, or even a friend of Katelyn. The simplest explanation is they didn’t want attention on water at all.
These are just some of the pieces of evidence which, when explained simply and put in context with the correct way to read the car data and Daniel’s job, point to foul play and staging. At the end of the day, Occam’s razor applies. The simplest explanation is also the most likely one. Someone staged the Jeep in that ravine, and it was not Daniel.
Now let’s get into the mental health aspect. But before we do, let’s talk about some of the claims about Daniel’s mental state that have been going around and look at why those claims exist in the first place.
Wellness Calls
One of the biggest examples is the idea that there were prior wellness calls on Daniel before he went missing. This narrative started showing up online from two different places at the same time, Stephen Fischer on Twitter and a Websleuths user known as JJRAY. One stated it as fact, the other opinion, that Daniel’s family or others had already had wellness checks done before he disappeared.
(check post history for sources)
When David Robinson has been asked directly, he denies these calls ever happened, and he has done so multiple times on video including in his latest live on YouTube. Wellness calls are not protected under HIPAA. If they had really taken place, Buckeye PD would have had no reason to leave them out. In fact, they likely would have included them in the report to support their own mental health theory, especially with the negative feedback they have received.
Both Fischer and JJRAY were in contact with Detective Biffin during the same period. Fischer posted that he was speaking with the lead detective, and JJRAY’s posts made it clear he was also talking to the department. The fact that Fischer was repeating the same thing is significant because Stephen is considered a credible person. He has a reputation for saving lives and would not have repeated the claim unless the source seemed credible to him.
So the identical posts about wellness calls didn’t appear out of thin air. It looks like the story originated with law enforcement, then came out through people they were in contact with, and in the process it shifted the focus away from the Jeep, the phone, and everything else. You have to ask yourself, why?
Katelyn
In regards to Katelyn, there is little doubt that Daniel liked her and may have acted in ways that came across as inappropriate. That much is fair. But the way this story has been repeated in the media and online often makes it sound like the main explanation for his disappearance, and that doesn't really fit when you get into the story.
According to the police report, Daniel showed up at Katelyn’s house twice unannounced. The first time, she had told him to come by anytime, and Daniel seems to have taken that literally. I can understand why she would have felt uncomfortable, but I can also see how Daniel interpreted it. Add in the fact that he needed his canopy for work, and it doesn’t look as bad as it’s often been presented. He even left it in a place where he could pick it up without her being home, which he did.
The second incident is where the story gets interesting. On Monday, June 21 at 3:46 p.m., Daniel texted Katelyn saying he was outside her home. But his MileIQ app, which the police report itself accepts as extremely accurate, shows that from 12:59 p.m. until 3:51 p.m. he was at the Verrado well site, miles away from her house. David Robinson has also said the timestamps and those texts don’t match what he recovered directly from Daniel’s phone.
So while the first visit likely did happen, the second one is contradicted by Daniel’s own phone data. That leaves us questioning the way this interaction has been reported, especially since the only version of it we have comes from the police themselves.
Then there is the text Daniel sent on June 22, the “see you again” message. It reads as emotional and cryptic, but it can also be seen another way, as Daniel hinting that he was about to do something that could get him into trouble, something that might explain why he felt he either would or would not see her again. What makes it even more interesting is what happened next. A short time later, Daniel messaged his sister saying it was an emergency, and not long after that he was seen at a Waffle House without his Jeep, sweating heavily and looking paranoid. I will talk about the Waffle House later, but it adds credibility to the idea that something bigger was going on than just Daniel having personal problems regarding Katelyn.
Roger
Roger’s account offers a couple of important details. On June 21, two days before Daniel went missing, Roger said he saw Daniel at the office, which was unusual since Daniel almost always went straight to work and rarely stopped in. That day stood out to him because Daniel appeared to be in a bad mood and gave very short, dry answers when asked if he was okay. Roger also recalled him leaving the office carrying a box and not saying goodbye, which he thought was odd. The report does not specify what was inside the box, but given that a box of soil and rock samples was later found in Daniel’s Jeep, it is possible Daniel was moving or handling work materials.
After Daniel disappeared, Roger joined in a search. During that search, Jeff McGrath described him as looking distraught, almost as if he wanted to say something. But when Jeff tried to engage him, Roger got what Jeff described as an “oh
” look, turned pale, and avoided him for the rest of the day.
These two interactions raise the question of whether what Roger was noticing in Daniel’s behavior was really mental health in the way it has often been framed, or whether Daniel’s stress and agitation tied back to what he was seeing at the well. If Daniel had discovered something troubling about the logs or the data at Verrado, it could explain why he seemed off in the days before his disappearance and why Roger thought that something wasn’t right, because it wasn’t.
Waffle House Visit
On the afternoon of June 22, Daniel texted Katelyn “The world can get better, but I’ll have to take all the time I can or we can, whatever to name it. I’ll either see you again or never see you again.” Not long after, around 4:21 p.m., he texted his sister Davisha saying, “It’s an emergency.”
Later that evening, Daniel was seen at a Waffle House without his Jeep. Witnesses described him as sweating, acting paranoid, and clearly not himself. Instead of driving away, he called an Uber and went home. When he got there, his sister asked about the emergency, and Daniel told her it was a false alarm.
Mile IQ suggests Daniel’s Jeep did not leave from his home the next morning, and David Robinson has said Daniel was out very late on the 22nd, which could mean he didn’t even feel comfortable staying home that night. But the infotainment system logs also line up with the Jeep not leaving from his residence, meaning Daniel's jeep didn't leave from his house on the morning of June 23rd.
So why did he still go to work the next morning? Two explanations fit. One is that Daniel felt obligated, either pressured directly by his supervisor or simply bound by his responsibilities. The other is that he thought showing up as normal might protect him, as if going through the motions would calm things down.
This story, the cryptic text, the emergency message, the paranoid Waffle House sighting, leaving his Jeep somewhere else, brushing it off as a false alarm, and still reporting to work,doesn’t read like random mental health struggles. It looks more like someone who knew he was in trouble, didn’t feel safe, but kept going anyway.
June 23rd, 2021
On the morning of June 23, the day he went missing, everything in Daniel’s behavior looked relatively normal. His phone records and conversations with coworkers all point to him going about his usual routine until something or someone interjected.
He left home early and stopped for gas, something confirmed by his bank records. By 7:10 a.m. he was at the Verrado Way well site, where he took a timestamped photo of the lithology logs and then called his supervisor, Stephen Noel. They spoke for eight minutes, exactly the kind of call you would expect if something might be wrong.
From there, his digital footprint shows a clear and consistent workday pattern. His Jeep logs continued to track mileage, his Mile IQ app recorded three trips that matched his movements between gas stations, the well sites, and the desert, and his phone calls show he was communicating throughout the morning. Even at 8:35 a.m., Daniel was returning a call to Noel, still engaged and responsive.
Ken Elliott, the pump technician scheduled to meet him at the second well site, later told police that Daniel arrived, spoke with him briefly, and then drove off without explanation. Ken said Daniel seemed quiet but not impaired, and nothing about the interaction suggested a breakdown or crisis.
In regards to your
"fixer" comment. the only people who knew where Daniel was that day is his job, so that fits my original theory quite nicely.
Up until 10:32 a.m., when his phone stopped moving in the ravine, there is nothing in the record to suggest he was in crisis, disoriented, or walking away from life. On the contrary, the data shows Daniel following through on a normal morning of field work.
That is what makes what happened all the more interesting. The break doesn’t come in Daniel’s behavior, it comes in the data after 10:32 a.m., when the Jeep was restarted, driven, and in my opinion staged. The picture we get is not of someone experiencing a mental health episode, but of someone working normally until something else happened to him.
I’m not convinced the day Daniel went missing actually went down the way the official story says it did or the way I've laid it out above. It’s possible he never made it to or past the first well site, or that something happened to him at the second, and that he was already gone before his Jeep ever ended up in the ravine. The way the timeline has been presented is incorrect, and I don’t necessarily believe all of those interactions took place as described.
Even if we accept their version of events, even if Daniel did leave the well site and end up at the ravine, the record still shows him acting normal that entire day according to the data. He was making calls, making multiple stops, and carrying out the routine of his job. There is nothing in the data to suggest he was in the middle of a breakdown.
In my opinion, many of the things that have been used to push the mental health angle, the supposed wellness calls, his visits and texts to Katelyn, Roger’s observation of him being in a bad mood, look on the surface like signs of instability. But they can just as easily be understood as stress tied to the pressures of his job, and possibly what he was working on around the well. When you put it in that context, the mental health narrative looks less like the cause, and more like a convenient way to explain away behaviors that may have had a very different meaning.
Before I ever started digging into theories about motive, I believed the data proved the Jeep was staged and Daniel was not the one who put it there. The mileage, the ignition cycles, the infotainment logs, and the separation between his phone and the vehicle all point in the same direction. You don’t need to speculate about motive to see it. Once you start looking at water and how critical the Verrado well became to Buckeye’s growth, the narrative about Daniel being mentally ill starts to look less like an explanation and more like the most convenient excuse available. It was an easy way to deflect attention from what might have actually happened, especially since stress around the well could have explained Daniel’s state of mind.
A lot of this, aside from the hard data showing the Jeep restarting at 12:54 p.m. and driving 11 miles without Daniel’s phone, is theory and my opinion. But at this point I can’t see any other explanation for how the evidence fits together.
I know one thing people have a hard time believing is that Daniel, as an entry level geologist, could have had any real impact on something as big as a well’s viability. But he absolutely could. Field geologists like Daniel are the ones who log the soil, record the formations, and make the first assessment of whether the well is going to hit productive aquifers or not. Those lithology logs and field notes become the base for everything that comes after, the engineering reports, the pumping tests, and ultimately the city and state approvals. If those logs don’t show the kind of water-bearing zones expected, it can call the entire project into question. It can make it cost a lot more money, or it could shut it down entirely. So even though Daniel didn’t sign off on permits, his work directly shaped whether that well could be counted as viable.
We know well 55-233391 tested at 19 to 23 thousand, far below the 40 thousand average that was used to get it approved. We also know the lithology logs, the same logs Daniel photographed on the morning he went missing, were completed the very next day after he disappeared.
A lot of people dismiss Daniel as mentally ill and then try to explain away the data without actually explaining it at all. I look at it the other way around, the hard data clearly points to foul play, and from there I try to make sense of the mental health narrative in that context, i try to explain everything.
To me, none of this is coincidence. These facts, when lined up with the data, point to foul play.
