AZ AZ - Daniel Robinson, 24, remote job site, Buckeye, 23 Jun 2021 #2

[ColdDutch]

Ken did call Daniel’s supervisor right after Daniel drove off. He said he then worked the rest of the day by himself until around 2:30–3:00 PM, when he finally went out looking for Daniel by following his tire tracks.

The lithology logs are really only incriminating if Daniel was still around to say they’d been altered. David has a photo of those logs himself, so the existence of the data isn’t in question, the issue would have been Daniel pointing out discrepancies. That also makes it a good theory for why someone might have been on Daniel’s laptop after he went missing.

Ken’s account is interesting because it essentially closes the possibilities. If he’s telling the truth, then Daniel simply drove off and only his tire tracks continued, meaning no one else physically followed him into the desert. If he’s not telling the truth, then that contradiction itself points to motive.

I’m not sure whether Stephen was ever actually questioned by police. What I do know is that it’s not in the police report, and David has even referred to people like Stephen as “ghosts” on his YouTube channel.

One detail left out of the police report is that Stephen called Daniel at 8:33 AM, and Daniel called him back at 8:35. That call happened after Daniel had already left the first well site and was headed toward the second one. The timing matters, because it was that call that caused Daniel to turn around earlier that morning.

This is one of the only parts of the police report timeline where they don't explain where Daniel was when it is easy to do so. Had they questioned Stephen, he would have told them.

Regarding Ken’s story, it’s actually quite simple. Either it’s true or it’s not. If you suspect foul play in this case, that automatically means you have to distrust Ken’s words. As far as we know, he’s the last person to have seen Daniel.

The idea that Daniel was completely off track that day is theoretically possible, but it’s not really supported by his earlier activities that day. He seemed to have gone to work that morning according to his usual routine. If he was on the edge, he managed to hide it fairly well up until the moment he disappeared.

Ken’s timeline is a double-edged sword. On the surface, calling Daniel’s supervisor right after he drove off seems responsible. But when paired with his decision to wait hours before tracking Daniel’s tire marks, it starts to feel more like a performance of concern than genuine urgency. If his story is true, it isolates Daniel. If it’s not, then the delay becomes suspicious. Especially given the desert conditions and Daniel’s behavior.

Stephen’s call at 8:33 AM could be very important. It altered Daniel’s route. Yet Stephen is absent from the police report. That doesn’t seem just an oversight, but more like a structural flaw in the investigation. David Robinson calling him a “ghost” is an interesting metaphor. It certainly leaves room for speculation.

If I understand you correctly, the lithology logs themselves aren’t necessarily incriminating, but their significance depends on Daniel’s interpretation. So, if he had noticed discrepancies and was preparing to raise concerns, then his insight becomes the threat, not the data. That’s makes the theory about laptop access even more compelling. It suggests someone may have wanted to understand what Daniel knew and if he recorded it somewhere.

 

[ColdDutch]

I find it deeply troubling that the Buckeye Police handed over key evidence to private investigators. That’s far from standard procedure, especially in an unresolved disappearance. When law enforcement relinquishes control of physical evidence, it raises serious questions about the integrity of the investigation and whether justice is truly being pursued.

Another big red flag is the discovery of Daniel’s Jeep. Buckeye Police themselves stated they had previously searched the area where the Jeep was eventually found. The rancher working in that area also said the Jeep hadn’t been there in the weeks leading up to its discovery. That can’t be a coincidence. One eyewitness might leave room for speculation, but the chance that two eyewitnesses are both mistaken seems much smaller. The rancher’s statement is especially important. He knows the land and said he was there daily, if not several times a week.

This should have been reason enough for Buckeye Police to seriously investigate the possibility of foul play. They failed to locate the Jeep in that area themselves, and now they have confirmation from a reliable witness that he hadn’t seen it there either. That adds an even more bitter taste to the decision to hand over evidence to private investigators. How is that even possible when the outcome of their own investigation remains uncertain?

And it doesn’t stop there. The timeline surrounding Daniel’s disappearance is riddled with gaps. Stephen’s phone call at 8:33 AM altered Daniel’s route, yet Stephen isn’t mentioned in the police report. That’s a failure to document a key moment that could clarify Daniel’s movements and state of mind. Add to that the post-disappearance access to Daniel’s laptop, and a troubling pattern begins to emerge. Critical leads were ignored, and potential motives left unexplored. When evidence is handed off and witnesses go unexamined, it’s hard to believe foul play was ever taken seriously. And there are more discrepancies.

At some point, you have to ask whether this is just negligence or something deeper, like a lack of will to investigate. When basic steps aren’t taken and evidence is handed off prematurely, it doesn’t look like a department committed to finding answers. It looks like one trying to move on.

Worst of all, these failures shift the burden of investigation onto Daniel’s family. David has had to become the lead investigator in his own son’s case. I sympathize deeply with him and his plight.

 

[ColdDutch]

Maybe this has been discussed before, but it keeps nagging at me. The 9:28 AM call from Daniel to Ken is one of the most poignant details in this case. It’s a timestamp that could be routine or deeply revealing, depending on which version of Ken’s story you believe.

Ken’s initial statement placed Daniel at the second well site around 9:00 AM, leaving by 9:15. If that timeline is accurate, then Daniel’s call at 9:28 happened after he had already driven off. That opens the door to speculation: Was Daniel confused? Reaching out for help? Trying to clarify something? The call could reflect a shift in his state of mind or signal that something was already going wrong.

But Ken later revised his timeline, saying Daniel arrived closer to 9:30. Conveniently placing the 9:28 call just before their meeting, as if Daniel was simply checking in. That adjustment makes the call seem routine, almost irrelevant. And that’s exactly why it feels suspect.

Infotainment data from Daniel’s Jeep shows the vehicle was started at 9:00 and again at 9:06 AM. Then not again until 12:58 PM. That directly contradicts Ken’s revised timeline and makes his version of events increasingly difficult to take seriously.

If Ken’s second version was a lie, then the 9:28 AM call becomes critical. It’s not just a missed call. It’s a clue. One that could reshape the timeline and raise serious questions about what happened next.

Ken also claimed he followed Daniel’s tire tracks after finishing his work later that afternoon. Hours after Daniel had already driven off. But in his statements, the weather shifts. In one version it was raining when Daniel arrived. In another it was about to rain. That discrepancy matters. If it was raining, fresh tire tracks would likely have been washed away or obscured. If it wasn’t, then why did Ken initially say it was? You can’t follow tracks in mud and rain unless the conditions allow it and Ken’s memory seems to bend depending on which version he’s telling.

 

[buyerninety]

How far away was Daniel's vehicle parked? How noisy
were the water measurements activities?
Why can't it be the actual case that Daniel parked his
vehicle but didn't turn it off... it was what, approximately
about maximum 95 Fahrenheit (35 Celsius) on the 23rd
June, maybe he left the vehicle idling with the aircon on
and when Daniel went to Daniel's vehicle to leave, Ken,
busy with his work activities, simply assumed that Daniel
started Daniel's vehicle, when possibly it was simply idling
the whole time it was at the worksite... ?

 

[ColdDutch]

How far away was Daniel's vehicle parked? How noisy
were the water measurements activities?
Why can't it be the actual case that Daniel parked his
vehicle but didn't turn it off... it was what, approximately
about maximum 95 Fahrenheit (35 Celsius) on the 23rd
June, maybe he left the vehicle idling with the aircon on
and when Daniel went to Daniel's vehicle to leave, Ken,
busy with his work activities, simply assumed that Daniel
started Daniel's vehicle, when possibly it was simply idling
the whole time it was at the worksite... ?

It’s possible that Daniel had left the car idling during the meeting, but the data shows that he had already started his car six times that morning before the appointment with Ken. That makes it seem to me that it wasn’t a habit of Daniel’s to leave his car idling. I realize this isn’t conclusive evidence, but to me it’s more plausible that he turned off the engine when he got out.

 

[Bluedreamer]

How far away was Daniel's vehicle parked? How noisy
were the water measurements activities?
Why can't it be the actual case that Daniel parked his
vehicle but didn't turn it off... it was what, approximately
about maximum 95 Fahrenheit (35 Celsius) on the 23rd
June, maybe he left the vehicle idling with the aircon on
and when Daniel went to Daniel's vehicle to leave, Ken,
busy with his work activities, simply assumed that Daniel
started Daniel's vehicle, when possibly it was simply idling
the whole time it was at the worksite... ?

It was mid 80's around 9:30am that morning, some of us desert dwellers would actually consider that a tad chilly. But he actually did leave his car running by the 1st well site for some time before that so it wasn't completely uncommon.

Daniel might have left his car running, its not a very big detail, just an interesting one when you put it up with all the other details Ken gives us-

• Arrived at 9:00am, later switched to 9:30am
• Mile IQ APP didn't record the stop
• Was raining, was about to rain, was raining heavily
• Ken said multiple times Daniel started his jeep, no starts
• Boots untied comment helps explain boot under vehicle
• The route Ken gives ultimately leads to within a mile of where the Jeep was found
• Stayed left of tracks comment
• Painted rocks red comment
• This would be "national" comment
• Ken said Daniel’s were the only fresh tracks visible, but he stopped following them. That doesn’t make sense if he really wanted to find where they led.
• Ken said he had to open a gate and pass through it to keep following Daniel's tracks. That doesn't make sense if Daniel was having a mental break but still decided to close the gate behind him.

When David first came to Buckeye and went out to the Cactus Road well site (June 29, 2021, I have this date wrong in a post above), his initial meeting with Ken was very unusual. When he arrived at the gate, Ken wasn’t there. Instead, there was another man who questioned David on what he wanted to talk to Ken about and then told David he could give him a ride to meet Ken. He claimed Ken was 15 to 20 miles into the desert. David refused because it didn't seem right to him and he had his daughter with him.

View attachment 614012

Only about 15 minutes later, Ken himself showed up at the gate. If Ken really had been 15 to 20 miles out, there’s no way he could have made it back that quickly.

At that meeting, Ken gave David the story about following Daniel’s tire tracks through a gate, climbing a hill to look around, and not seeing anything. He also made the comment that this case was going to “go national" and told David he painted the rocks red to mark where he had already looked.

If I'm being honest, i really don't know what to make of Ken's story, he seems believable to me even though some of the data doesn't completely line up.

For Daniel's Jeep to drive 23.6 miles between 9:06am and 12:54pm and be by the ravine when it crashes, it almost had to have gone to the 2nd well site around 9:30am and 9:45am, the miles line up so well. To me Ken has to be telling some version of the truth, maybe the whole one I'm not sure. Some of the details he gives are just too convenient and coincidental at times.

 

[cenazoic]

The rancher’s statement is especially important. He knows the land and said he was there daily, if not several times a week.

I want to say it was in the Dateline episode where the rancher says something to the effect that cows are curious. If they come across something unusual in their environment, they’ll lick it as part of figuring out what it is. The rancher basically said that even if you didn’t believe him, the fact that the Jeep didn’t show any evidence of cow-licking (that’s not a sentence I thought I’d be writing today) proved that it had not been there since Daniel’s disappearance.

the weather shifts. In one version it was raining when Daniel arrived. In another it was about to rain.

In a previous convo with @Bluedreamer, I pointed out that according to Maricopa County, there was zero precipitation that day (or the previous days). BD thinks there could have been some deserty microbursts not caught by the rain catchers. Possible. Here’s the data:

https://alert.fcd.maricopa.gov/alert/Rain/pcp0621.pdf

 

[buyerninety]

"there was zero precipitation that day"-(?)
... the 23rd June, maybe so, but after midnight (i.e. the
next day):
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, ~ 41 mile away;

Phoenix, AZ Weather Calendar | Weather Underground

Also, (aside from it possibly raining whilst Daniel was
seatbelted in his car seat, say unconscious), it is
reasonable to assume there was rain at the crash site
at some time after Daniel left (the interior of) his vehicle
- remember the (hard) hat which had water in it found in
his vehicle?
(As noted in the robinson-report-9-23-21.pdf, page 31).

 

[Bluedreamer]

"there was zero precipitation that day"-(?)
... the 23rd June, maybe so, but after midnight (i.e. the
next day):
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, ~ 41 mile away;

Phoenix, AZ Weather Calendar | Weather Underground

Also, (aside from it possibly raining whilst Daniel was
seatbelted in his car seat, say unconscious), it is
reasonable to assume there was rain at the crash site
at some time after Daniel left (the interior of) his vehicle
- remember the (hard) hat which had water in it found in
his vehicle?
(As noted in the robinson-report-9-23-21.pdf, page 31).

If there was no rain on June 23rd then Ken isn't telling the truth regardless of whether or not it rained after that day, which it did a few times.


Maricopa historical rain data shows no rain in the area where he was supposed to meet with Ken on June 23rd, 2021-

All of the + signs you see on the ground are rain gauges, the data makes it seem like the storm had already passed over that area, but even earlier times show the storm coming from the south.

There is another website that does show rain over the 2nd well site during this time (I'll have to find it). Which makes me believe there could have been a bunch of micro-bursts in the area, which are common in the desert.

What is a Microburst?

A microburst is a localized column of sinking air (downdraft) within a thunderstorm and is usually less than or equal to 2.5 miles in diameter. Microbursts can cause extensive damage at the surface, and in some instances, can be life-threatening. There are two primary types of microbursts: 1) wet microbursts and 2) dry microbursts. Wet microbursts are accompanied by significant precipitation and are common in the Southeast during the summer months.


As for the hard hat, there was one recovered that had water in it, it also had a fully intact business card (laminated?)-

According to the police report, there was water damage inside the jeep itself, but David says that isn't true.

 

[Bluedreamer]

If there was no rain on June 23rd then Ken isn't telling the truth regardless of whether or not it rained after that day, which it did a few times.


Maricopa historical rain data shows no rain in the area where he was supposed to meet with Ken on June 23rd, 2021-

View attachment 614220
View attachment 614221

All of the + signs you see on the ground are rain gauges, the data makes it seem like the storm had already passed over that area, but even earlier times show the storm coming from the south.

There is another website that does show rain over the 2nd well site during this time (I'll have to find it). Which makes me believe there could have been a bunch of micro-bursts in the area, which are common in the desert.

What is a Microburst?

A microburst is a localized column of sinking air (downdraft) within a thunderstorm and is usually less than or equal to 2.5 miles in diameter. Microbursts can cause extensive damage at the surface, and in some instances, can be life-threatening. There are two primary types of microbursts: 1) wet microbursts and 2) dry microbursts. Wet microbursts are accompanied by significant precipitation and are common in the Southeast during the summer months.


As for the hard hat, there was one recovered that had water in it, it also had a fully intact business card (laminated?)-

View attachment 614222

I'd like to add that, in my opinion, in regards to foul play it really doesn't matter if the jeep was in the ravine that day or placed there later like a lot of the evidence leads me to believe.

Even if it was there the whole time, I believe the data proves the Jeep crashed by the ravine, restarted there, then drove 11 miles, whether it was back to the ravine or placed there later is up for debate.

With the foul play narrative, either one makes sense.

1. Driven miles away from the ravine to get rid of Daniel and then returned that same day, at the scene of the first accident so the data would line up with the phone and original crash data.

2. Driven 11 miles away from the ravine then placed back there days before it was found, at the scene of the first accident so the data would line up with the phone and original crash data.

 

[ColdDutch]

I want to say it was in the Dateline episode where the rancher says something to the effect that cows are curious. If they come across something unusual in their environment, they’ll lick it as part of figuring out what it is. The rancher basically said that even if you didn’t believe him, the fact that the Jeep didn’t show any evidence of cow-licking (that’s not a sentence I thought I’d be writing today) proved that it had not been there since Daniel’s disappearance.




In a previous convo with @Bluedreamer, I pointed out that according to Maricopa County, there was zero precipitation that day (or the previous days). BD thinks there could have been some deserty microbursts not caught by the rain catchers. Possible. Here’s the data:

https://alert.fcd.maricopa.gov/alert/Rain/pcp0621.pdf

I'm not an expert on cows by any means, but I do remember that remark from the rancher. Of course, it proves nothing, but it's yet another strange aspect of this case that doesn't align with the Buckeye PD's version of events.

As for the changing weather in his various accounts, I've always found that very surprising. How often does someone suddenly decide to leave an appointment under confusing circumstances, especially when no one else is present? You’d think you'd know exactly what the conditions were at that moment. Ken wasn’t distracted by anyone else.

 

[buyerninety]

B

AZ Post in thread 'AZ - Daniel Robinson, 24, remote job site, Buckeye, 23 Jun 2021 #2'

Sep 12, 2025

"there was zero precipitation that day"-(?)
... the 23rd June, maybe so, but after midnight (i.e. the
next day):
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, ~ 41 mile away;

Phoenix, AZ Weather Calendar | Weather Underground

Also, (aside from it possibly raining whilst Daniel was
seatbelted in his car seat, say unconscious), it is
reasonable to assume there was rain at the crash site
at some time after Daniel left (the interior of) his vehicle
- remember the (hard) hat which had water in it found in
his vehicle?
(As noted in the...

• Bluedreamer

• 

Bluedreamer said;
"According to the police report, there was water damage
inside the jeep itself, but David says that isn't true."

I guess stains on the e.g. seats perhaps could be considered
by police to be caused by rain and perhaps alternatively
considered by David to just be stains not too uncommon to
see in a working mans' vehicle used to travel to/be at worksites.

Thanks for the picture, I understood the private investigator
said there wasn't any glass in the vehicle, but in that picture
we can see green fragments of what appear to be fractured
glass. (I assume those fragments are some fragments that
flew past/stuck to the inflatable airbag, whilst the majority of
the fragments were as seen left on the ground in the rough
shape of the drivers window glass, presumably left there as
the vehicle rolled on its' side. Possibly the airbag deployment
and the glass being left on the ground could have occurred
more or less about the same time).

 

[ColdDutch]

"there was zero precipitation that day"-(?)
... the 23rd June, maybe so, but after midnight (i.e. the
next day):
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, ~ 41 mile away;

Phoenix, AZ Weather Calendar | Weather Underground

Also, (aside from it possibly raining whilst Daniel was
seatbelted in his car seat, say unconscious), it is
reasonable to assume there was rain at the crash site
at some time after Daniel left (the interior of) his vehicle
- remember the (hard) hat which had water in it found in
his vehicle?
(As noted in the robinson-report-9-23-21.pdf, page 31).

Ken’s story about the rain just doesn’t seem logical at all. I can easily imagine that you could follow tire tracks if someone drove after it had rained for a while and then it stayed dry. It’s much harder to imagine that tire tracks would remain intact during rain, as Ken said in his first account.

Ken’s later claim that it was about to rain makes it even more suspect. If the ground was still dry, maybe tracks were visible, but then why did he say it was raining in his earlier statement?

Ken claimed that he could easily identify Daniel’s tire tracks because they were the only ones visible after the rain. This detail was meant to reinforce the idea that Daniel had driven off into the desert alone, and that Ken was able to follow his path based on those tracks. Why did he alter his story later to say it was about to rain?

Would love to hear how plausible this sounds to those familiar with desert terrain.

 

[ColdDutch]

I'd like to add that, in my opinion, in regards to foul play it really doesn't matter if the jeep was in the ravine that day or placed there later like a lot of the evidence leads me to believe.

Even if it was there the whole time, I believe the data proves the Jeep crashed by the ravine, restarted there, then drove 11 miles, whether it was back to the ravine or placed there later is up for debate.

With the foul play narrative, either one makes sense.

1. Driven miles away from the ravine to get rid of Daniel and then returned that same day, at the scene of the first accident so the data would line up with the phone and original crash data.

2. Driven 11 miles away from the ravine then placed back there days before it was found, at the scene of the first accident so the data would line up with the phone and original crash data.

Let’s say foul play occurred at or near the second well site. The perpetrator wanted to stage a crash to make it look like Daniel had driven off and had an accident. So they crashed the Jeep into the ravine. Then it was realized:

• The crash didn’t line up with Daniel’s phone data or timeline.
• The scene didn’t look convincing enough. Maybe the Jeep landed in a way that didn’t match the narrative they wanted. The damage to Daniel’s Jeep was, according to the private investigator, not consistent with the crash site.
• Or they needed to move the Jeep temporarily to dispose of Daniel or clean up evidence.

So they restarted the Jeep. 46 ignition cycles suggest someone was trying hard to get it running again and drove it 11 miles. Possibly to another location. Then, realizing they needed the crash scene to match the digital trail, they returned the Jeep to the ravine, either the same day or days later.

 

[Bluedreamer]

B

AZ Post in thread 'AZ - Daniel Robinson, 24, remote job site, Buckeye, 23 Jun 2021 #2'

Sep 12, 2025

"there was zero precipitation that day"-(?)
... the 23rd June, maybe so, but after midnight (i.e. the
next day):
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, ~ 41 mile away;

Phoenix, AZ Weather Calendar | Weather Underground

Also, (aside from it possibly raining whilst Daniel was
seatbelted in his car seat, say unconscious), it is
reasonable to assume there was rain at the crash site
at some time after Daniel left (the interior of) his vehicle
- remember the (hard) hat which had water in it found in
his vehicle?
(As noted in the...

• Bluedreamer

• 

Bluedreamer said;
"According to the police report, there was water damage
inside the jeep itself, but David says that isn't true."

I guess stains on the e.g. seats perhaps could be considered
by police to be caused by rain and perhaps alternatively
considered by David to just be stains not too uncommon to
see in a working mans' vehicle used to travel to/be at worksites.

Thanks for the picture, I understood the private investigator
said there wasn't any glass in the vehicle, but in that picture
we can see green fragments of what appear to be fractured
glass. (I assume those fragments are some fragments that
flew past/stuck to the inflatable airbag, whilst the majority of
the fragments were as seen left on the ground in the rough
shape of the drivers window glass, presumably left there as
the vehicle rolled on its' side. Possibly the airbag deployment
and the glass being left on the ground could have occurred
more or less about the same time).

I'd be interested in seeing inside the passenger side door panel. If the Jeep was out there for a whole month then there could/should be evidence of water damage in between the panel and the metal. Not sure on stains, it was used when Daniel bought it albeit low mileage, I know he kept it extremely clean.

While not too important, David has said the glass on the ground doesn't match the glass from the window. In my opinion, the placement of that pile of glass makes no sense in the context of a roll over in relation to where the Jeep was sitting.

David was also told the day after they found the vehicle that the glass came from the roof panel, but those panels are made of metal.

For the glass to pile right there the jeep would have had to hit right there on the window then roll over on its top, coming to rest the way it was found, but there are no marks on either one of the top rails on the Jeeps roof indicating it rolled over on itself at all.

The private investigator said the Jeep never rolled, it merely went down the hill then tipped on it's side. Not sure how the glass could have gotten like that if that's true-

(1:20, video is unavailable to watch outside of youtube, have to click on it)

 

[Bluedreamer]

Let’s say foul play occurred at or near the second well site. The perpetrator wanted to stage a crash to make it look like Daniel had driven off and had an accident. So they crashed the Jeep into the ravine. Then it was realized:

• The crash didn’t line up with Daniel’s phone data or timeline.
• The scene didn’t look convincing enough. Maybe the Jeep landed in a way that didn’t match the narrative they wanted. The damage to Daniel’s Jeep was, according to the private investigator, not consistent with the crash site.
• Or they needed to move the Jeep temporarily to dispose of Daniel or clean up evidence.

So they restarted the Jeep. 46 ignition cycles suggest someone was trying hard to get it running again and drove it 11 miles. Possibly to another location. Then, realizing they needed the crash scene to match the digital trail, they returned the Jeep to the ravine, either the same day or days later.

In my opinion, the Jeep couldn’t have crashed into the ravine the first time, only by it. That explains why the damage doesn’t match and why the airbag data shows a 30 mph deployment. Jeff wasn’t able to reach that speed even in an off-road vehicle, and Daniel’s Jeep, which is low clearance, would have been even less capable.

Police suggested Jeff may not have taken the same route Daniel did, but that doesn’t make sense. There was only one set of tire tracks leading into the ravine, no tracks coming out, and no signs of digging as if someone had tried to drive out.

That means when the Jeep finally went down the hill into the ravine, it stayed there. The 11 miles shown in the vehicle data had already been driven elsewhere, and the Jeep was either brought back that same day or placed there days before the rancher found it.

 

[ColdDutch]

In my opinion, the Jeep couldn’t have crashed into the ravine the first time, only by it. That explains why the damage doesn’t match and why the airbag data shows a 30 mph deployment. Jeff wasn’t able to reach that speed even in an off-road vehicle, and Daniel’s Jeep, which is low clearance, would have been even less capable.

Police suggested Jeff may not have taken the same route Daniel did, but that doesn’t make sense. There was only one set of tire tracks leading into the ravine, no tracks coming out, and no signs of digging as if someone had tried to drive out.

That means when the Jeep finally went down the hill into the ravine, it stayed there. The 11 miles shown in the vehicle data had already been driven elsewhere, and the Jeep was either brought back that same day or placed there days before the rancher found it.

You're absolutely right. That was an oversight on my part. I had momentarily forgotten the detail about the impact speed. It really does make it illogical that the Jeep crashed there initially. Another key point that supports this is the red paint transfer, which couldn’t be explained by anything present at the location where the jeep was found. Additionally, the damage was not consistent with the crash site either.

So what are we really looking at here? The crash, the police report, and the data simply don’t align and that can really only be explained by foul play. I don’t see how there could be a scenario in which Daniel crashed somewhere first, then drove another 11 miles, only to end up in the desert he had previously come from without being found in close proximity to his car. Not to mention the rancher’s firm claim that the jeep hadn’t been there in the days prior.

So you have to look for a motive, and his work seems the most obvious place to start. In theory, something unexpected could have happened after Daniel drove away from Ken, but that doesn’t fit at all with Ken’s version of events. He claims to have seen Daniel’s tire tracks heading straight from the road into the desert. That story leaves no room for a crash at another location. Why would Ken lie if he had no good reason to?

You really can’t draw any other conclusion than that the story reeks from every angle. Unless there's something wrong with the data from the jeep, but that's not something I can assess. To be honest, I find it unlikely given that multiple people have looked into it.

 

[Bluedreamer]

You're absolutely right. That was an oversight on my part. I had momentarily forgotten the detail about the impact speed. It really does make it illogical that the Jeep crashed there initially. Another key point that supports this is the red paint transfer, which couldn’t be explained by anything present at the location where the jeep was found. Additionally, the damage was not consistent with the crash site either.

So what are we really looking at here? The crash, the police report, and the data simply don’t align and that can really only be explained by foul play. I don’t see how there could be a scenario in which Daniel crashed somewhere first, then drove another 11 miles, only to end up in the desert he had previously come from without being found in close proximity to his car. Not to mention the rancher’s firm claim that the jeep hadn’t been there in the days prior.

So you have to look for a motive, and his work seems the most obvious place to start. In theory, something unexpected could have happened after Daniel drove away from Ken, but that doesn’t fit at all with Ken’s version of events. He claims to have seen Daniel’s tire tracks heading straight from the road into the desert. That story leaves no room for a crash at another location. Why would Ken lie if he had no good reason to?

You really can’t draw any other conclusion than that the story reeks from every angle. Unless there's something wrong with the data from the jeep, but that's not something I can assess. To be honest, I find it unlikely given that multiple people have looked into it.

I'm not sure what to think about the red paint transfer. One theory I’ve seen is that it could have come from a hydraulic jack a tow company used to get the Jeep upright in the ravine, I kind of like that theory. At the same time, the only reason we even know about the red paint transfer is because of the PI, not Buckeye PD. That might just be because they didn’t really inspect the Jeep, but it could also mean the mark wasn’t from a hydraulic jack at all.

At first, I wasn’t sure what to make of the rancher’s story. Some people (like Billy Hayes) tend to embellish to make their accounts sound more important. But after listening to the rancher’s audio and hearing him retell it, I 100% believe him. He even said Buckeye PD told him they searched that area and the Jeep wasn’t there. That’s really damning, especially when you consider how close the search grid must have started from the ravine.

Then there’s Ken’s account about following tracks through the gate, going further in, and climbing a hill to look around. That would put him roughly half a mile from where the Jeep was located. He had fresh tracks to follow, and according to the police report, you’d have to go off-road to reach the ravine, there wasn’t a road there at the time, it wasn’t made until August or September. Those tracks should have been very easy to follow, rain or not, because they were cutting a new path into the desert.

I think that's my biggest problem with Ken’s story (which is weird because i just thought of it recently). If you were following the tracks, why stop? Did you follow them all the way to where the road ends and then decide to climb a hill, which hill? Why didn’t you see the off-road tracks? You went far enough to paint rocks red to mark where you had already gone, how far did you go? His account basically starts the search grid right next to where the Jeep was found. So why didn’t the Phoenix Fire-bird helicopter spot it? Why didn’t Civil Air Patrol? Why didn’t ground teams? And why did Buckeye PD, according to the rancher, say they had searched that area before and the Jeep wasn’t there?

All of this is before even looking at the data, which In my opinion proves the Jeep first crashed by the ravine, then drove 11 miles, and later ended up back there. And that makes a lot of sense if it was staged, they just brought it back to the site of the first crash so the data would line up.

As for motive, before even digging into the background around Daniel’s work, it was always weird that this was the one angle police never talked about, or really anyone talked about, even in theory.

The police report and media imply a whole list of other theories about what may have happened to Daniel:

1. Mental illness – Police report/Media
2. Accident, succumbed to injuries – Police report/Media
3. Wild animals – Police report
4. Left for a monastery to become a monk – David via Detective Biffin
5. Cartels – David via Police Chief Larry Hall
6. Katelyn’s friend – Police report
7. Some random person – Police report
8. Billy – Police report

The report even mentions a man who looked like Daniel but was missing his left hand instead of his right. They go through nearly every possibility, except anything related to his job. They even go out of their way to leave out Stephen’s involvement that day (Daniel's main boss), someone David has describes as “a ghost.”

 

[cenazoic]

Ken claimed that he could easily identify Daniel’s tire tracks because they were the only ones visible after the rain.

the placement of that pile of glass makes no sense in the context of a roll over

What about in the context of say, a driver using one of those window-breaker deals?

There was only one set of tire tracks leading into the ravine, no tracks coming out, and no signs of digging as if someone had tried to drive out.

But what does that mean, if anything, when the Jeep isn’t found until a month later, after lying there for some undetermined time?

—-
K told Investigation Discovery that “We arrived at the job site at 930…it was raining fairly hard at that point.”

( see ID Disappeared Season 10 Episode 2:“Disappearance In The Desert”, around 3:30 mark. A brief search doesn’t find it available online, but it might be.)

Regardless of the lack of actual data for this claim, let’s proceed. I find the whole “I followed his tire tracks…” story absurd on the face of it.

Why would K do that? What happened between 915/945 (depending on the time DR left the well site, K reported both) and 3pm when K decided to follow the tracks?

Why did he, some 6 hours later, decide to do this, for a guy he’d just met and of whom he only remembered that his boots were untied and that he said “said some weird stuff”?

Furthermore, why wouldn’t the ‘heavy rain’ wash away/muddle any tracks? How did he know he was following DR’s tracks? For that matter, do we know what kind of tires were on the Jeep? Were they distinctive in any way? Was there only one Jeep in the desert that day? /s

 

[Bluedreamer]

What about in the context of say, a driver using one of those window-breaker deals?

I don't see how that could happen in that spot in the ravine in relation to how the jeep was sitting, it's almost as if someone took a bunch of glass and dumped it in a pile out of a bucket.

But what does that mean, if anything, when the Jeep isn’t found until a month later, after lying there for some undetermined time?

It just means that the 11 miles had to have been driven before the Jeep ever got to the ravine. Some people theorize that Daniel crashed his jeep upright in the vehicle into the ravine, restarted it at 12:54pm and tried driving out, spinning the tires for 11 miles before flipping back over.

This doesn't make sense because there are no other tracks in the ravine showing this type of movement, meaning once the Jeep got into the ravine, it stayed there on its side.

I know people like to call it the "desert" where Daniel went missing, but it wasn't that remote so Ken going looking for him thinking something might be wrong was always a little weird. People leave job sites all the time without saying anything and we don't send out a search party a few hours later, it's usually not until they don't show up the next day.

The painted rocks red to mark where he had already looked is kind of weird too. How far did he go to have to paint rocks red to retrace his steps?