AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #16

[liltexans]

Every tip/lead is helpful because it helps them cross a line through something that isn't there and helps them narrow their focus. Ensures they don't overlook something that might be important to the investigation.

 

[Prof]

High volume of tips slow the process, but also helps to narrow the field, by essentially the process of elimination. Hawke mentions crossing possibilities off of their list.

 

[cluciano63]

If either of the parents know what happened to Isabel, I hope they will have the courage and decency to come forward and admit it. This isn't going away. Just for once I would like to see an adult take responsibility for harming a child, whoever did this. JMO

 

[Lava]

Story about the bones found this morning that are not Isabel:

http://www.kvoa.com/news/bones-found-at-site-of-former-deanza-drive-in-not-related-to-celis/

 

[Boodles]

I wish a reporter would ask why Isabel is not on the FBI Missing/Kidnap list.

 

[liltexans]

LE does not return to the family home on a daily basis.

 

[Dr. Know?]

20 officers & 30 personel working on the case, the FBI, US Marshals are included in the 30. Missed the part about mirroring Tucson's investigation in Mexico?

 

[mamamia54]

No definitive conclusion on whether the father is involved or not involved, nothing has been ruled out.

 

[Prof]

I could probably recite some of these comments from memory, hearing them for the last four weeks, stated by three different LE officers.

 

[liltexans]

All possibilities still open for suspicion. Not one person has been ruled in as a suspect, but no one has been ruled out.

 

[dog.gone.cute]

Whisperer --

Try this link ... the other does not seem to work

http://azstarnet.com/news/local/cri...cle_8a0e22a3-f9a3-5df6-a4f1-163f280fad8f.html

 

[Prof]

Next Monday 2 pm presser

 

[Dr. Know?]

2pm next Monday is the next presser.

 

[liltexans]

The level of the family's interaction with the media is their choice. LE very much wants this story to stay on the front page and for people to know that Isa is still missing.

Next presser 2 pm Monday.

 

[johnQpublic]

Live from Tucson PD " We are currently on a wild goose chase, we know bits and peices about alot of things but really we have no clue what is going on at this point, we are merely waisting tax payer money going insane. " Just my thought's

 

[Nvgirl]

Looks like the dog I saw in the door at the Celis house.

Thats what i said but someone on here said that the dog on the door foesnt have white on his kneck.

 

[Prof]

So ...I don't imagine that CPS will give any press any details about any previous visits.

I found the question about previous calls interesting.

As far as I remember, the Celis family have lived in that home a number of years...

 

[Lava]

The level of the family's interaction with the media is their choice. LE very much wants this story to stay on the front page and for people to know that Isa is still missing.

Next presser 2 pm Monday.

It was my impression that the family was going to be out more. But I assume with the latest CPS involvement RC has had a change in heart about that. It really is a shame, because this little girl is out there missing.

 

[Lark2]

If there is no reason to believe she is not alive then the cadaver dog never hit in anything. It had to be a different type of dog.

Have any locals heard about the type of hit, or about the results of the LDT's?

 

[SeaEclipse]

We haven't come across any signs that indicate that she's not alive.

As I've thought for some time based on LE's approach, this would seem to suggest that the dog hit was NOT from a cadaver dog. I don't think he would say there are NO signs that indicate that she's not alive if they had a cadaver dog hit (especially since he wasn't asked anything directly that would have forced him to make this sort of comment).

Assuming for a minute that there was no cadaver dog hit... That changes things a bit for me. For one thing, I think there's next to no chance of an accident (likelihood that Isa was accidentally killed and SC -- or whoever -- had the presence of mind to get her out of the home fast enough to avoid a cadaver dog hit is pretty slim in my mind). In fact, even an intentional but unplanned killing in the home (e.g., if she suddenly claimed she would report someone for abuse) becomes much less likely under this scenario for the same reason... and even a planned killing in the home (especially without another person/vehicle involved) is somewhat less likely because a cadaver hit in the home would still be possible and you'd expect one in the vehicle used to transport her). I think this means this makes the a scenario in which she left the house alive most likely.

I wonder if the "unexpected" dog hit that led to further investigation was that Isa's scent could only be tracked out the front door NOT out of the screenless window and that's when LE started thinking inside job/staged scene.

ETA: This also makes the likelihood that RC was involved in an accident/unplanned killing scenario virtually nil because her first instinct as a pediatric nurse would have been to try to revive Isa. Almost certainly she would have tried (particularly as a traumatized parent) well longer than the point at which death actually occured... making the lack of a cadaver hit virtually impossible.