AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #18

[Lava]

I hope I am following these rules:

Regarding Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, and other social networking or blog websites: Links may be used to direct posters to view something on a social networking page. But postings on social networking sites are not considered fact; they are rumor.

There is something interesting on the Find Isabel Celis FB page.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Yes. Yes it is. That is what we are all saying. Because that could not possibly be a valid path to consider unless we all think people from Tucson are drug cartel criminals.

You caught us. God, it feels so good to finally confess! Yay!


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You dont have to be snarky Frayed.

Eileen said the reason is 'it is where they live' and that is why I ask her did she mean all those from Tuscon were connected to the drug cartel.

Why does where they live connect them to the drug cartel?

IMO

 

[Dum-Dum Sucker]

I had not seen The Today Show. So apparently "a law enforcement source" told NBC that it was a minor incident. And the other source about Sergio/CPS/December is the sister.

I thought Becky's face was interesting when Sergio said the "k" word ("kidnapped, kidnapped") at about the 1:25 mark. She's looking down and sideways. I try to convince myself that Becky's not a party to this "abduction", but, alas, she too sets off my hinky meter over the top of the scale. http://video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/47473660#47473660

But you all have probably hashed this out already!

I have given up trying to figure out what happened that night. I have no doubt that both Becky and Sergio are involved and responsible (perhaps one more than the other, but both are in deep). I don't think they thought this would become such a huge media story, but I do think they were prepared for a long term "wait it out" period.

I also have a ton of confidence that LE is onto them and has a plan and is working it as best they can. Some of their moves have been outstanding. I know I can't be privy to what they know, and I'm cool with that - it's the way it has to be while they do their thing.

But I find some consolation in that I don't think Isabel is suffering in a "tortured" type of way. I believe she is alive and with someone who is caring for her or that she has been killed. I go back and forth between those 2 scenarios since the parents do not and have never acted like people whose child has been kidnapped. They have consistently, from the first day, said things and behaved in ways that were completely incompatible with that scenario. BUT, the fact that they hid out of sight for a week leaves the possibility open, in my mind, that Isa could be dead at the hands of them or someone they know, because that's when Becky said she curled up and cried. And Sergio had to tell her she "had to get up and show up" at the softball game and other public gigs. If Isa is dead, I think Becky only had that week to mourn before having to go into this act.

But I'm 50/50. No way do I buy the stranger abduction, sex predator, random type crime. If she's alive, I hope Isa's not too afraid or homesick.

I think we will all be surprised when this is solved. And I feel confident that it will be.

And that performance of Ave Maria? uke:

I agree with everything you said.

My instant reaction to SC was, "This guy is Balloon Boy Dad Part Two."

Like you, I am 50/50, but ZERO for stranger abduction, sex predator, etc. Nah.

*back to cowering in my basement during severe thunderstorms with my 4 cats*

 

[AZlawyer]

Is it happening in Tuscon too. I thought that was mostly happening in Phoenix but honestly I dont know about drug cartels. I live on the other side of the US and that is never in our news.

It's worse in Tucson, because Tucson is 90 miles closer to the border.

 

[Lark2]

Ok, let me go with this one, if Becky called CPS or say a neighbor called CPS and if it was about Sergio, and they didn't want him to be aware that he may have been the reason for that call to be placed, that's another senario.

What I'm saying is, that is the Celis address, mother, father, sister, sons and animals, are all the Celis family. Give me some other reasons that CPS would have been called, and Sergio not know it.

I think this call might have involved someone who was "staying" at the home. Maybe that person was doing something that was deemed to have a negative influence on the kids. So, maybe CPS talked directly to that person, and perhaps, Becky, and Becky filled SC in.

 

[WhatsupAZ]

1. no.
2. yes IMO only-I have not done a study.
3. no, cps would not get involved for that reason alone, and certainly would not say they wanted sergio to leave the house.

Oh poop. So much for my trying to make a molehill out of a mountain.

 

[johnQpublic]

Totally Serious... but... Did you know that Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada LE do actually consider the possibilities of Alien Abductions... They don't consider it something that's Absolutly impossible. .. Not that it's what happened here but it's just something I found interesting.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Unfortunately there's quite a bit of negative stereotyping that goes on around my area regarding Mexicans. I have mentioned this case to many people (I'm kind of known for being a True crime junkie and several friends always ask what I am following whenever they see me). I cannot tell you how quick people are here to jump to use the word cartel whenever anything involves a person with a Hispanic name and a crime. It has nothing to do with what is going on in border areas, I live in PENNSYLVANIA and it has everything to do with a undeniable over exposure to the hyped fear of drug cartel violence following Mexicans wherever they migrate... And it is my personal feeling that it is much like being kidded all the time about having relatives in the Mafia when you are of Italian descent. (which I am). But as I said previously, I don't think anyone here at WS has inferred cartel involvement based on the sole fact that this is a Hispanic family. It has just been my personal experience outside of WS.

Well that is a shame because some of the most honest people I have ever met have been Mexicans.

IMO

 

[FrayedKnot]

You dont have to be snarky Frayed.

Eileen said the reason is 'it is where they live' and that is why I ask her did she mean all those from Tuscon were connected to the drug cartel.

Why does where they live connect them to the drug cartel?

IMO

Well before that, you suggested that if the Celises were not Latino that the cartel theory would not exist. Basically saying that those who give that theory credence are racists.

Then when location, not race, was given as the reason, then you counter with "are you saying everyone in Tucson is in a cartel". Really?

But I'm snarky. Okay.


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[Lava]

Totally Serious... but... Did you know that Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada LE do actually consider the possibilities of Alien Abductions... They don't consider it something that's Absolutly impossible. .. Not that it's what happened here but it's just something I found interesting.

Please tell me you have some link about this? Not because I don't believe you, but I would really love to read about it!

 

[pieper4]

Wow is he gonna hit rock bottom sometime and he's not going to understand it at all. Maybe after a stint in jail and another in rehab he might begin to wake up. So sorry this has happened to him, and the family.

Thanks. We keep hoping. Last December he was popped for selling medical weed to a UC in SF. Never appeared, so contempt of court ensued and he was picked up and detained for ~60 days. Spent his 20th birthday in jail (just like his 16th and 18th). The day after he was released he was popped again for violating new terms of probation. According to his friends' FB comments, it appears he's back in again. Really very sad. Both his Mom (my late sister) and Dad were drug addicts. He never stood a chance once he picked up that pipe the first time.

Anyway, I digress. In his extensive case, no CPS interaction for smoking or selling weed, etc. No idea if that's the norm here in Tucson. Although I was very proactive in his cases here... including railing at his then CPS worker (post guardianship)... who is now involved in the Celis case... for placing him at Vision Quest... only a few miles from my Dad's home. Why was this a problem? Because my nephew punched my Dad, stole his truck, went on a robbery and burglary spree, pulled 2 hit and runs and was caught with ammunition, about $6000 worth of stolen goods, and a triple beam balance scale. This was in a 25 minute span. The truck was totaled. TPD and PCSO were not amused. He actually fled through my place of employment being pursued by 6 LE cars after the second hit and run. I picked up pieces of my Dad's truck on my smoke break. But CPS decided placing him at that location in proximity was wise. Guffaw.

 

[Prof]

I hope I am following these rules:



There is something interesting on the Find Isabel Celis FB page.

As far as I understand, As long as we don't pull a direct quotation or a picture from social networking, we can paraphrase and link, but we should say this is rumor... we can also give instructons on how to find something..
All of the above is only if it is a public page...

That said, where is the interesting thing on the page? what should I look for?

 

[A_News_Junkie]

Frayed, I'm going to jump off this post, not because I agree or disagree with anything in it, but because I think it demonstrates the crux of a frustration many posters have tried to express in earlier posts.

What is proof? And what is fact? The mere fact that we can link a statement to a respected MSM article or video doesn't necessarily mean that that makes the statement true without knowing the reliability of the source. Conversely, if a poster shares a life experience that is related (obviously no link available, thank goodness!) it should be evaluated on an equal basis by each reader. Each poster and reader deserves their own set of standards to make their own evaluations and judgements.

As a group are we going to dissolve into such a mess that nothing really counts other than our own perspective? We already question the entire family's accounts, MSM has proven itself unreliable, sources are generally unnamed or biased and what scant info we are given by LE is under suspicion because they might only be releasing statements to put pressure on the family (or Sergio, specifically).

I do certainly understand the danger of disseminating false information and the importance of correcting and stopping that from becoming rampart rumor. But I also respect and enjoy reading posters' various theories and opinions. Brainstorming is a good thing. I just wish we could all get along better, show less impatience with others' mindsets and not feel each idea/opinion that is different than our own must be challenged for proof.

I'm not sure if I am just too much of a "global thinker" or if I'm on the verge of Alzheimer's . . . as I wonder if we have any real, indisputable facts available to us at all other than that sweet Isa is missing.

(Okay, gonna push that "Submit Reply" button now and pray I don't get a TO or too many tomatoes!) :couch:

Bravo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Honestly, last night I got very frustrated reading the thread and seeing people almost mock a new poster for a find that could have been very interesting. I guess I am an old softee, but I like to encourage new posters and I think that poster could have learned so much with a gentler approach and tolerance. I do hope that all the newbies will stick around and make some mistakes, because that is how the best posters here got to be just that!

:welcome3:

 

[Lava]

As far as I understand, As long as we don't pull a direct quotation or a picture from social networking, we can paraphrase and link, but we should say this is rumor... we can also give instructons on how to find something..
All of the above is only if it is a public page...

That said, where is the interesting thing on the page? what should I look for?

Thanks! it is on the Find Isabel Celis FB page here: https://www.facebook.com/FindIsabelCelis

And it is the very first comment in the "Recent Posts by Others" section, referencing the RUMORED "note".

 

[oceanblueeyes]

I'm not surprised Becky and Sergio haven't been ruled out. How could they provide an alibi? :waitasec: I'm trying to think of a missing child case when the parent were home and they were ruled out. Anyone?


Also, to beat that poor dead horse:

Hawke said it would be inappropriate for police to discuss the state CPS case. She referred media to the state agency.

Police have gone before to the residence where the Celis family lives. Hawke said she did not know the nature of the calls. "They're very minimal. When I do a check of the residence, there virtually is no contact there prior to most recently," Hawke said.

She said she could not provide the specific dates when police responded to the Celis home.

http://azstarnet.com/news/local/cri...cle_910228ae-c75d-52bd-b1d0-10f3ea7b14ee.html

Like I have mentioned before I cant remember one case now where LE specifically came out publicly and ruled a family member out that had a missing child. There may be such a case and it has slipped my mind but the overwhelming majority of parents are never ruled out...even when it turned out they were innocent as the day is long and had nothing to do with their child's disappearance.

I dont expect them to do it in this case either.

If LE always came out publicly and ruled out parents then I would get my hinky meter up that they havent done so in this case but its just the opposite.

I could list countless cases with these same circumstances where the parents or close family members who lived in the town that were never ruled out before the real suspect was finally caught and arrested.

I just dont see this as a big deal but more of a SOP.

 

[stg]

I hope I am following these rules:



There is something interesting on the Find Isabel Celis FB page.

Very interesting, if true. A bit vague in its message, but at the same time very telling.

 

[mamamia54]

Thanks! it is on the Find Isabel Celis FB page here: https://www.facebook.com/FindIsabelCelis

And it is the very first comment in the "Recent Posts by Others" section, referencing the RUMORED "note".

Now I wonder if there is any relationship between the person that posted that and..............I'll just stop there and look...............:what:

 

[WhatsupAZ]

It

Is it happening in Tuscon too. I thought that was mostly happening in Phoenix but honestly I dont know about drug cartels. I live on the other side of the US and that is never in our news.

That element that you are refering to pops up in the news every single day in some way here in AZ... And Tucson is even closer to the action...speaking of...news is covering last nights vigil now

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Well before that, you suggested that if the Celises were not Latino that the cartel theory would not exist. Basically saying that those who give that theory credence are racists.

Then when location, not race, was given as the reason, then you counter with "are you saying everyone in Tucson is in a cartel". Really?

But I'm snarky. Okay.


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I just didnt understand why she said 'its where they live.' I thought that was what she meant that drug cartels are tied to those in Tuscon.

Ok.......time to take a break because that I meant no harm and just asked a honest question.

Goodnight everyone!

 

[Prof]

Thanks! it is on the Find Isabel Celis FB page here: https://www.facebook.com/FindIsabelCelis

And it is the very first comment in the "Recent Posts by Others" section, referencing the RUMORED "note".

Okay, did you look at the comment on that post?

ETA ...oops it leads to a blog which leads to another blog that is not allowed here, so I think that means I can't discuss it, not sure...