AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #24

[SmoothOperator]

Smooth Operator-

You might be right for all I know-but on the "off" chance that they would-wouldn't it be worth the risk if it brought Isabel home?

Certainly it would IMO.. and as I said in other cases I,too was frustrated that the family/friend fb pages strictly prohibited such.. but for whatever reasons it is the way many of the missing person fb pages are run.. little isa's page is not unusual as far as this issue goes.. most are run this way and they are zero family involvement in the disappearance..so while I certainly agree that I, too have been frustrated by this route taken by other missing family fb pages, my point is that Isabel's page being run this same exact way is not indicative of anything.. it appears as tho for many to be sop..

 

[SmoothOperator]

It also bothers me with such a large reward that noone has stepped up to collect it. Times are tough, and that is a lot of money...Someone-somewhere has to know what happened to Isabel...

Holly Bobo's case has a record setting reward of several hundred thousand dollars.. yet no one has yet stepped forward with info of her abduction over a year ago April 13, 2011

 

[Pensfan]

Investigative Case Management for
Missing Children Homicides

This report discusses the findings of a three year research project that examined the
investigations of murders of more than 600 abducted children. The research was conducted by
criminal justice professionals with extensive murder investigation and research backgrounds.
The report is written for the homicide detective who is confronted with an unsolved case and for
the uniformed patrol officer who responds to the initial call of a missing or abducted child

https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/201253NCJRS.pdf

I hope you will find the time to read this...

That is an great article. Thanks for sharing that link. The first thing that I noticed was this:

The word "abduction" means different things to different people.
1) The victim was kidnapped.
2) The victim was detained and his/her freedom of movement was restricted.
3) A victim of domestic violence was reported by the family (or someone else) as a missing child.
4) The police were initially of the opinion that the victim was taken or held against her will, whether or not that turned out to be the case in the end.

 

[Pensfan]

Here is another interesting fact from the article that CJMAJORGIRL24 posted:

It was discovered that in 40 percent of the cases there were "unknowing" witnesses.
https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/201253NCJRS.pdf

 

[Prof]

Here is another interesting fact from the article that CJMAJORGIRL24 posted:

It was discovered that in 40 percent of the cases there were "unknowing" witnesses.
https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/201253NCJRS.pdf

Yes, that report linked is from 1997- 15 years old..,,I did find a newer 2007 report was written

https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/Abstract.aspx?id=240688


Here's the abstract for the more recent report.

The additional 175 solved cases added to the original dataset (N = 800) are reflective and supportive of the original report with several significant and definite differences between the first study and this one. With more killers identified, it is found that the relationships between them and their victims change from strangers to an almost equal likelihood of being friends/acquaintances. Another significant change is the increase of the use of by killers as a trigger. Given the overwhelming sexual motivation of killers in these cases, this should not be surprising. Victims continue to be females and slightly over 11 years of age, leading “normal” lives, typical low-risk victims. The killers remain around 27 years of age and are predominantly unmarried. Half of them are unemployed, and those who are employed work in unskilled or semi-skilled jobs. More than half of the cases are initially reported to a law enforcement agency as a “missing child.” Fast action by law enforcement is an absolute since the vast majority of abducted children who are murdered are dead within 3 hours of the abduction. Importantly, even though child abductions are rare, parents must eliminate, or minimize, the opportunity for their children to become victims. Child abduction murders are very difficult to solve.

http://www.missingkids.com/en_US/documents/homicide_missing.pdf

 

[GrainneDhu]

I'm pretty sure that's not true. Technology is definitely advanced enough today for LE to find out where someone is posting from. Maybe the LE in your son's college town were not that interested in putting in the resources/money to find the perps? But it's possible for LE to track down anyone who posts online. Also, what tip could someone have where LE cannot know their identity but would solve the case? Is the kidnapper going to post where Isabel is on FB?

In actual fact, it is not possible for LE to track every online poster, if the poster has the minimal to moderate computer skills needed to post by bouncing the post through several different international servers. If done properly, which includes time delays built into the original packet, it's impossible for LE to trace.

The reason such services exist is a noble one: it gives dissidents living under repressive regimes a way to send and receive information with the outside world. To serve that goal, the anonymizer services accept that a certain amount of bad use will also occur.

If you want to learn more, google on "Tor anonymizer" and "Jondo anonymizer". The more people using either service, the more secure they are. They aren't difficult to figure out and there are websites with FAQs that practically take you by the hand to walk you through the installation process and how to use them.

".... It's not safe out here. It's wondrous, with treasures to satiate desires both subtle and gross; but it's not for the timid." Star Trek: The Next Generation, Q in "Q Who?"

 

[GrainneDhu]

Here is another interesting fact from the article that CJMAJORGIRL24 posted:

It was discovered that in 40 percent of the cases there were "unknowing" witnesses.
https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/201253NCJRS.pdf

That doesn't surprise me at all.

Humans see so much that we have to filter out the input in order to be functional. If we didn't, then things like driving a car would be infinitely more dangerous than it already is.

This is why I get so frustrated when people say "but X couldn't have happened because there were no witnesses!" All too often, X can happen right in front of potential witnesses but none of those people remember what it was they saw. It had no significance to them at the time, so their internal filters excluded it so the potential witness could concentrate on what was important to them at the time.

It cuts the other way as well. Mistaken eyewitness identification has been a significant factor in over 75% of the exonerated prisoners helped by the Innocence Project.

 

[pieper4]

It is not a popular view, but many of us think there is more at play here than simply a missing girl. Potential witnesses or tipsters may actually be fearful of their lives or the safety of their own families.

But if that is just looking for excuses, well then, okay.

Personally I would not risk the safety of my own child to inform LE about potential info if I thought that some very bad people might retaliate.

And this is why I was personally very relieved that the information I provided was NOT in the doc dump. I submitted lots of names/dates and other specific info that could have fairly readily been extrapolated from the "anonymous" tip system if one were of the mind to do so. No, I NEVER used my name/address/phone number...

 

[white rabbit]

Isabel Celis still missing 2 months later
Jun 27th, 2012

http://lasvegasworldnews.com/isabel-celis-still-missing-2-months-later/776/

(note that the article is filed under 'cold cases')

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Yes, that report linked is from 1997- 15 years old..,,I did find a newer 2007 report was written

https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/Abstract.aspx?id=240688


Here's the abstract for the more recent report.



http://www.missingkids.com/en_US/documents/homicide_missing.pdf

Thank you. That is very informative.

I have always felt child abduction cases done by strangers are the hardest cases to solve. When there is no linkage between the victim and the perpretrator it is almost impossible to solve the case unless the perp makes a mistake and leaves evidence of himself behind. But even then he/she has to be in some type of criminal data bank to be indentified.

IMO

 

[CJMAJORGIRL24]

Holly Bobo's case has a record setting reward of several hundred thousand dollars.. yet no one has yet stepped forward with info of her abduction over a year ago April 13, 2011

Aliayah Lunsford also has a large reward -her "parents" (and i hate to call them that) have not only had all of their children removed from their home by social services, they have never ever searched for her, and her Mom is headed to the Federal Pen tomorrow for Food Stamp Fraud. So SO sad

 

[CJMAJORGIRL24]

Yes, that report linked is from 1997- 15 years old..,,I did find a newer 2007 report was written

https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/Abstract.aspx?id=240688


Here's the abstract for the more recent report.



http://www.missingkids.com/en_US/documents/homicide_missing.pdf

While this research might not be the newest-my Professor feels it is still being used by some of the largest police agencies in this country. Basically because it was such a massive research project. And because these cases are not the norm.

 

[Jules71]

There are some good comments and info under the article here:
http://tucsoncitizen.com/pats-bits-and-bytes/?p=159

I found the comments about the 'National Program to help search for Missing Children called the NALC/USPS Child Alert Program' to be interesting.

ETA: I googled some of the key words above and it seems this same person has given this info on many different missing persons articles and forums.

 

[time]

I'm still sitting on the fence, but here's my thinking.

If the Celis' are involved in Isabel's disappearance, more than likely there is nothing I can do to help find her. I think it was either an accidental death or she could have been sent away to family in Mexico and will never be found? IDK. I had some other thoughts on SC and the voluntary agreement, but I'm not sure they are valid.

But if Isabel was abducted by a complete stranger (or an acquaintance, friend, neighbor) and not murdered within a short time (I hate to even say that), then I think the possibilities are two... 1. she has ended up in an illegal adoption/living with some pervert/etc... or, 2. she was taken for the child sex trade. Are there other obvious possibilities if it was a non-family abduction?

 

[MsFacetious]

We just had a 6 year old girl (Sierra) assaulted and murdered... she disappeared from her house and was found quickly.
They are talking about Sierra's being an isolated incident.
However, 17 years ago the same thing happened, to another 6 year old girl but Rosie's case was never solved.

We are only a one day drive from Arizona... so I thought I'd put it here just because.

UT - 6 year old girl found in canal West Jordan - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

 

[oceanblueeyes]

I'm still sitting on the fence, but here's my thinking.

If the Celis' are involved in Isabel's disappearance, more than likely there is nothing I can do to help find her. I think it was either an accidental death or she could have been sent away to family in Mexico and will never be found? IDK. I had some other thoughts on SC and the voluntary agreement, but I'm not sure they are valid.

But if Isabel was abducted by a complete stranger (or an acquaintance, friend, neighbor) and not murdered within a short time (I hate to even say that), then I think the possibilities are two... 1. she has ended up in an illegal adoption/living with some pervert/etc... or, 2. she was taken for the child sex trade. Are there other obvious possibilities if it was a non-family abduction?

BBM

I have always felt that someone was watching Isa and she was taken for sexual purposes. Not to be sold to a sex trade but for the perp's own self gratification and perversions.

I think Isa is like most victims that this happens to and she was murdered within hours of being kidnapped.

IMO

 

[SmoothOperator]

BBM

I have always felt that someone was watching Isa and she was taken for sexual purposes. Not to be sold to a sex trade but for the perp's own self gratification and perversions.

I think Isa is like most victims that this happens to and she was murdered within hours of being kidnapped.

IMO

I agree with this but I must say that for the life of me I cannot make sense of TPD NOT THOROUGHLY, METHODICALLY, GRID MAP SEARCHING THE ENTIRE TUCSON AND SURROUNDING AREAS? ..just as is continuing to methodically be done in sierra's case in CA. . It goes to show you that the stranger abduction for sexual motive and then murder does not always mean the stranger is going to carelessly dump their victims remains just about anywhere as they don't care dude to the fact they have no connection to the victim.. as that tends to be what many think and therefore when a victims body is still not found many believe that it was not a stranger perp..

Sierra's case shows that even the stranger abductors for sexual motive and murder at times do obviously go to some lengths to conceal and keep the remains unrecovered.. IMO I believe its likely to do with attempting to have the remains unrecovered for enough time that the remains do not yield DNA evidence or the like that they fear could possibly be recovered if the victim is found within a relatively short amount of time..

This IMO is why time is of the essence as the LaMar case is racing against the clock with the continued methodical searching for her remains before that time clock runs out and the remains are past the point of yielding evidence of the utmost importance..

Is it not the same for Isabel? Regardless whether her family murdered her or a stranger IMO TPD should be racing against the clock as well to find little Isa's remains before the evidence irretreviable.. why is this not at all happening regardless of if you believe the parents did it vs a stranger did it.. why arevthey not racing against the clock to find this child's remains to ensure the responsible perp is successfully prosecuted to fullest extent of the law?? ..they claim that is their objective to take this case to trial and successfully prosecute those responsible.. i don't get it and that again is regardless of who you believe is the responsible perp..

 

[Dr. Know?]

Tucson is a huge city. If little Isa were in the city, even miles from her home, it would be noticed. Surrounding Tucson there is so much open desert that to even guess where Isa could have been dumped is like a needle in a hay stack.

TPD's investigation has been methodical, thorough & very professional and for anyone who doesn't live here to say they weren't, shows they don't know the area. Believe me, they searched areas we aren't even aware of. None of us know what TPD or the FBI does.

The actions so far show that they believed that Isa's brothers needed distance from Sergio, they released the information that CPS had been to the Celis home in December 2011, they clearly are focused on someone or ones & any areas they are searching is kept under wraps. jmo

City of Tucson has a land area of 226.71 square miles

The 2010 United States Census puts the city's population at 520,116 with a metropolitan area population at 1,020,200. In 2009.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucson,_Arizona

Where would you start searching?

 

[time]

BBM

I have always felt that someone was watching Isa and she was taken for sexual purposes. Not to be sold to a sex trade but for the perp's own self gratification and perversions.

I think Isa is like most victims that this happens to and she was murdered within hours of being kidnapped.

IMO

This morning I was reading about that case where a teen boy is seen on video and they think he could be in danger, but they don't know where he is. Unfortunately it seems he is also with a much young girl in the tape. I hate to say it, but dying quickly might be better.

 

[Madeleine74]

IF TPD has developed information that leads them to believe (but not yet able to prove) that whatever happened to Isa happened inside the home and by a member of her family, where would you have them "search?" There's only so many people in LE and the city has other cases to attend to as well.

Statistics and FBI behavior data show that IF it was a member of the family, Isa is deceased and has been since that night. Actually, even if she were taken by a stranger (which I believe is a longshot), the first few hours are the most critical to finding a child and after 48 hours the chances of a child being alive are slim.