BELIZE - Alison MacKenzie, 43, tourist, from AZ, Rendezvous Caye, 18 Jan 2020

[BeachSky]

Have they ever cleared up what time she was last seen?
That and a tide chart might shed some light.
I mean if she walked out at extreme low tide and passed out...hours could of gone by.

MOO

 

[NavyGirl8404]

A person who is afraid of the ocean is not under any circumstances going to voluntarily go into the water at night. I love the ocean, but never in a million years am I going to go in during darkness of night.

I don't know if drug dealers or what have you would carry out business on that postage stamp of an island with a bunch of tourists there.....sounds risky, but who knows?

Maybe Alison did see something nefarious, maybe her previous "erratic" behavior was due to having seen or overheard something earlier and she was anxious, though I wonder if it's even true that she was "erratic". I somehow doubt it.

As for being suicidal, I don't know....again, going into the water, at night, as opposed to a much quicker method elsewhere .
I can't help looking sideways a bit at the bf, for several reasons after digging a bit, could be very wrong though so sitting on my hands.
I feel terrible for her daughters, mom, and loved ones.

I agree with the concept of someone being afraid to venture out into the ocean as not being likely to do so at night, much less alone.

 

[Miss415]

I'm doubting she decided to go for a leisurely swim, especially since she feared swimming in the ocean according to her family. I'm intrigued by the "Captain". He states that she was acting erratically? Did her bf corroborate that? Did others on the tour witness any erratic behaviour? What is meant by "acted erratically"? The Captain is the last person to see her? When did her bf see her last? Did he hear her leave? Did he hear her come back into the tent at 2:30 a.m.? I'm guessing no. My theory (and I could be completely wrong) is that AM was restless, went for a late night stroll, or to the bathroom and saw something she wasn't supposed to see. Someone she recognized and trusted lured her closer to the water where she was subdued and taken. How convenient it would be for "someone" from a tour company to rendezvous with drug runners in the middle of the night in literally the middle of nowhere?

I also agree with this scenario. Somewhere in this thread there was a quote about the "watchman" being interviewed but authorities did not want to share that info. Maybe because it would put the watchman's life in jeopardy to share it publicly.
I read about a watchman that was murdered on another Caye in early 2019, suspected to be drug related.
Mapp Caye mystery: 1 murdered, 2 missing | Amandala Newspaper

 

[MJPeony]

Have they ever cleared up what time she was last seen?
That and a tide chart might shed some light.
I mean if she walked out at extreme low tide and passed out...hours could of gone by.

MOO

That’s an interesting idea. Hadn’t thought of that- her passing out at low tide. Quite a good theory I think.

But then I’m back to wondering why a body hasn’t been recovered. Still feel like she would have turned up in those waters.

 

[Miss415]

BBM I'm having a hard time imagining why drug smugglers would transport their product out to a little tiny island by boat so their customers could then travel out to the same little tiny island by boat to purchase it. Well, unless the smugglers were on drugs themselves, I suppose...? MOO

Of course you are! You're not a smuggler! A tour guide operator is a great cover! Especially one with a great reputation. In Mexico, they force people to work for them in exchange for their safety. The small group of tourists are probably so tired after playing all day, that they are sound asleep. Nothing about customers traveling there, more like a "runner"picking up, transporting & delivering money or drugs. I doubt a watchman would be involved- they are working class. More likely someone with more to lose- like a tour company operator. JMO

 

[whitelilac]

Well...I just googled "smuggling, Belize cayes". There are many many articles.
One could speculate that this tiny tourist island would likely not be considered a hot spot like other isolated cayes. Though it seems risky with tourists there, it could also be a "safer" drop off or transit point for a particular gang than other cayes that might be more closely watched by rivals or authorities.

 

[BeachSky]

That’s an interesting idea. Hadn’t thought of that- her passing out at low tide. Quite a good theory I think.

But then I’m back to wondering why a body hasn’t been recovered. Still feel like she would have turned up in those waters.

I don’t know anything about this area of ocean but the pull of the moon and tides can move things, cover things dramatically fast. You know like standing at the edge of the shore,as the waves rush over your feet, then the water & sand bury your feet as it pulls back out to sea.

IMO.

 

[PommyMommy]

Of course you are! You're not a smuggler! A tour guide operator is a great cover! Especially one with a great reputation. In Mexico, they force people to work for them in exchange for their safety. The small group of tourists are probably so tired after playing all day, that they are sound asleep. Nothing about customers traveling there, more like a "runner"picking up, transporting & delivering money or drugs. I doubt a watchman would be involved- they are working class. More likely someone with more to lose- like a tour company operator. JMO

Yes, you are 100% correct. I am not a smuggler.

Just for the sake of argument, let's pretend that drug smugglers are involved in Alison's disappearance. What do you think Alison would have seen in the dark of night that would warrant her being taken or murdered? A box? A backpack? IOW, would the drugs be visible to a passerby during this supposed exchange?

A tour guide operator might be a good cover unless they kidnap or murder an American citizen. That's bound to draw unwanted attention, I'd think. MOO

 

[Miss415]

What could it have been that the watchman said that authorities are not sharing/ the public?

 

[PhoebeTries]

With the news come to light regarding the reason for her recent arrest, I find myself talking everything her family says with a grain of salt. She didn't drink, yet she was arrested on alcohol-related charges. So how sure can we be she didn't like to swim in the ocean? I understand 100% that family want to protect the reputation of a MP and people change over time, but it's so sad when misinformation gets spread with the best intentions

 

[GordianKnot]

With the news come to light regarding the reason for her recent arrest, I find myself talking everything her family says with a grain of salt. She didn't drink, yet she was arrested on alcohol-related charges. So how sure can we be she didn't like to swim in the ocean? I understand 100% that family want to protect the reputation of a MP and people change over time, but it's so sad when misinformation gets spread with the best intentions

BBM:

Exactly.

I don't believe that AM was "afraid of the water" any more than I believe that she "didn't really drink."

That's Denial talking.

I understand her sister and other family members being in denial about what's likeliest to have happened here.
If they accept the reality, it means she's dead, and her death was a tragic accident.

The fact that her family can't accept the likeliest explanation for her disappearance doesn't mean that we should follow suit, though.

My man William of Occam ain't out looking for pirates or drug smugglers.

William says it was likely something much more commonplace, as evidenced by the frequency with which we see these types of cases:

A person walking alone late at night, after having been drinking, falls into the water….and drowns.

Accidents happen.

That's Reality talking.

JMO.

 

[Seajay]

BBM:

Exactly.

I don't believe that AM was "afraid of the water" any more than I believe that she "didn't really drink."

That's Denial talking.

I understand her sister and other family members being in denial about what's likeliest to have happened here.
If they accept the reality, it means she's dead, and her death was a tragic accident.

The fact that her family can't accept the likeliest explanation for her disappearance doesn't mean that we should follow suit, though.

My man William of Occam ain't out looking for pirates or drug smugglers.

William says it was likely something much more commonplace, as evidenced by the frequency with which we see these types of cases:

A person walking alone late at night, after having been drinking, falls into the water….and drowns.

Accidents happen.

That's Reality talking.

JMO.

You have a point with Sir William of Occum. The most obvious answer based on the least assumptions.

It’s not an assumption that she drinks alcohol. She was arrested in an alcohol related incident.

But it is an assumption that she is afraid of water based on her sister, who also says she doesn’t ever drink.

I’m going to assume AK didn’t have her own boat to get off the island.

I’m going to assume she’s not hiding somewhere on the island. (That’s two assumptions right there and one fact.)

Sir Occum is screaming drowning. Either accidental or suicidal. Not foul play. We may never have answers from anyone but Sir William of Occum. Eventually, we hay have to accept that.

What the hell was the captain doing up and moving around the island at 2:30 am? Shouldn’t he have been getting his rest because he had to captain a boat the next day with his tourists onboard? That’s kinda creepy when you think about it. Everyone is asleep and the captain is roaming around while you are vulnerable. FWIW and MOO

 

[happyday]

You have a point with Sir William of Occum. The most obvious answer based on the least assumptions.

It’s not an assumption that she drinks alcohol. She was arrested in an alcohol related incident.

But it is an assumption that she is afraid of water based on her sister, who also says she doesn’t ever drink.

I’m going to assume AK didn’t have her own boat to get off the island.

I’m going to assume she’s not hiding somewhere on the island. (That’s two assumptions right there and one fact.)

Sir Occum is screaming drowning. Either accidental or suicidal. Not foul play. We may never have answers from anyone but Sir William of Occum. Eventually, we hay have to accept that.

What the hell was the captain doing up and moving around the island at 2:30 am? Shouldn’t he have been getting his rest because he had to captain a boat the next day with his tourists onboard? That’s kinda creepy when you think about it. Everyone is asleep and the captain is roaming around while you are vulnerable. FWIW and MOO

BBM

I lean toward this being an accidental drowning, but the captain is making me wonder about some things.

The captain is the person who said he saw her last at 2:30 am wandering around the island. Yes, why was he awake walking around at that time?

The captain is the person who said Alison was behaving erratically. This could be true. But it also conveniently explains why someone would maybe go in the water at night and accidentally or intentionally drown.

The captain could just be truthful and those facts back up what is most likely here—an accident. But it’s also important to check out the person who saw the missing person last, right?

 

[MntnHiker]

I agree re: the captain. I am not placing blame on him, but I am curious of a few things. For one, where did he sleep in relation to the tourists? I guess if he sleeps close by (and the island is so tiny that maybe everything is "close by") and is not a heavy sleeper, maybe he heard her moving around in the middle of the night, it woke him, and he went out to check it out? And then escorted her back to her tent.

But yes, very important IMO for LE to talk to him as what seems like the last person to see her. Like did he see her go back in her tent? Did he look back as he walked away to see that she was still in there? At what time did he go back to sleep? Etc.

 

[cobalt sky]

My theory (and I could be completely wrong) is that AM was restless, went for a late night stroll, or to the bathroom and saw something she wasn't supposed to see. Someone she recognized and trusted lured her closer to the water where she was subdued and taken. How convenient it would be for "someone" from a tour company to rendezvous with drug runners in the middle of the night in literally the middle of nowhere?

My problem with the drug theory is, what exactly was Alison supposed to have seen? It's unlikely that the drug smugglers were sitting under one of those palapa shades counting out bricks of cocaine and stacks of cash as Alison passed by on her way to the restroom to pee. Any realistic scenario involves them being very discreet with any transactions that might have taken place, and easy to explain away if a tourist so happened upon what they were doing (drugs hidden in boxes of food supplies etc).

The only drug-related theory that makes sense to me is if Alison and her boyfriend were themselves involved in the drug business and it was decided that for whatever reason, Alison needed to be eliminated. I think this is a very unlikely theory but makes more sense to me than her innocently stumbling upon a drug transaction.

 

[happyday]

I agree re: the captain. I am not placing blame on him, but I am curious of a few things. For one, where did he sleep in relation to the tourists? I guess if he sleeps close by (and the island is so tiny that maybe everything is "close by") and is not a heavy sleeper, maybe he heard her moving around in the middle of the night, it woke him, and he went out to check it out? And then escorted her back to her tent.

But yes, very important IMO for LE to talk to him as what seems like the last person to see her. Like did he see her go back in her tent? Did he look back as he walked away to see that she was still in there? At what time did he go back to sleep? Etc.

That’s a good point. It’s the captain’s job to take care of the tourists so he probably keeps one eye open all night. I would think though she was doing more than just going to the bathroom to make him get up and walk her back to her tent and tell her it’s not safe to be out there. I would imagine people are always using the facilities at night at different times.

 

[happyday]

My problem with the drug theory is, what exactly was Alison supposed to have seen? It's unlikely that the drug smugglers were sitting under one of those palapa shades counting out bricks of cocaine and stacks of cash as Alison passed by on her way to the restroom to pee. Any realistic scenario involves them being very discreet with any transactions that might have taken place, and easy to explain away if a tourist so happened upon what they were doing (drugs hidden in boxes of food supplies etc).

The only drug-related theory that makes sense to me is if Alison and her boyfriend were themselves involved in the drug business and it was decided that for whatever reason, Alison needed to be eliminated. I think this is a very unlikely theory but makes more sense to me than her innocently stumbling upon a drug transaction.

I agree. The drug theory is really just speculation. It’s not baseless speculation just because of the area being known smuggling territory, but it’s just speculation for sure. It wouldn’t surprise me if drugs were involved in some way—FBI involved, maybe that’s why? But it also won’t surprise me if this poor woman was intoxicated, fell, and has been swept out to sea.

 

[mickey2942]

I don’t know anything about this area of ocean but the pull of the moon and tides can move things, cover things dramatically fast. You know like standing at the edge of the shore,as the waves rush over your feet, then the water & sand bury your feet as it pulls back out to sea.

IMO.

Add some "rum punch" to that scenario, and it doesn't surprise me at all.

 

[happyday]

Add some "rum punch" to that scenario, and it doesn't surprise me at all.

Honestly as soon as I saw rum punch mentioned, I said “uh oh.” In my house we don’t even say the words, “rum punch,” because of my own experience with rum punch 20 years ago in a touristy Caribbean all inclusive.

 

[GordianKnot]

Search and rescue operation for missing American tourist at sea called off; FBI offers help - The San Pedro Sun

SABBM:

Over the past days, the BCG searched Rendezvous Caye and nearby areas, expanding their searches all the way to Alligator Caye, located several nautical miles south. They also had a second search and rescue unit to maximize the chances of finding Mackenzie, but all efforts were fruitless.
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While Mackenzie is yet to be found, a few theories have been circulating online. Some believe that perhaps someone may have harmed her or she went for a walk and fell into the sea. Another speculation is that she went for a late-night swim and encountered turbulent waters, which swept her away.
_____________________

Looks like whoever authored this article has been visiting our forum.

Gotta' love it when reporters consider regurgitating random theories being batted around by complete strangers online to be good investigative journalism.

JMO.