CA CA - Barbara Thomas, 69, from Bullhead City AZ, disappeared in Mojave desert, 12 July 2019 #4

[10ofRods]

People who collect things are always on the lookout. If she caught sight of something that looked interesting , she would likely go and pick it up. She would still be interested even if that wasn't the purpose of the outing.

It's like .... When I was a child, I spent holidays with my cousins who lived near beaches and cliffs where there were fossils. Sometimes we would go out specially to look for fossils. But other times, when we went to the beach to swim and play, if we saw something that looked like a fossil we would go and get it.

Well then, she got herself lost and managed to wander off well beyond the search area (no ravines or gullies on that side for miles - and an even wider trail to follow; going off trail has already been discussed, the cactus and the brush are intense and no way she could go up against cholla in bare legs).

But the basic point is still good. She could have walked more than a couple of miles from the place she told her husband she would be and has not been found, despite 80 people doing grid searches, intense helicopter support, dogs, climbers, etc. It's a big place, at some point she had to wander off any trail in the immediate area, or she'd be found.

She did this with no water, and did not turn back toward the RV (that has to be some kind of mental distress or event, IMO). The trails on the west side include some very narrow/small ones but the one on the east side is quite broad (therefore walkable in a bikini, no problems). But either she forgot she'd walked east from the RV or had some other reason for not walking back.

 

[Handsome Sailor]

Unfortunately, I'm not overly optimistic at this point. I think attention must focus on the last person to see her. I am suspicious about the timing of the purchase of that beautiful and impressive rv. What, only 3 weeks prior? And then it becomes "ground zero" for Barb's disappearance??

 

[glamourkitty1922]

It's possible - it happens. Probably not into a wash (at least not one nearby) and as to ravines, there are ravine-like places in the granite outcroppings (you can see them on google maps). They did have rock climbers out there for two days, but they can't check the bottom of each crevasse/ravine. She would have had to gain altitude above where she was hiking, though.

As someone who managed to have heat stroke (just outside of Needles, so not far from where Barbara went missing), one of the symptoms is euphoria. I am not a particularly extroverted person IRL, but on that day (I was in a car without air conditioning - and without water, long story) I was first miserable and achy and really worried about what to do. The person who had taken my water and was in another vehicle was ignoring our signaling system and this was before cell phones. I just kept driving.

Well, pretty soon, I felt better. WAY better. Really peachy! I tried to pull up alongside people and wave to them and mouth words to them. I didn't want to stop, and when we finally did stop, I was not concerned about water or finding shade. Euphoria is a symptom of heat stroke. My body temp was 102.5 and rising.

So, if she went from overheated to true hyperthermia, she might have decided that climbing some nearby rock formation was a super cool thing to do. Then, the chances of being in a ravine and eventually washed out of that space - maybe after a year or two - are much higher. Searchers know all this. Heck, I knew that at the time, but managed to completely be in a different frame of mind where all sense flew out of my mind.

I was traveling with a physician, btw...in that other car. He did notice, thankfully. I guess I was clammy and my skin had lost color, whereas I'd been flushed earlier. It was only 3 hours in 117-118 heat, but it was starting to cook me.

Do you live close to Needles? I live just a few miles outside the city.

 

[10ofRods]

The Arizona Department of Emergency Management has data on how far lost elderly (65+) have traveled - 50th percentile is 1.35 miles, 75th percentile is 3.82 miles.

So the elderly can walk a lot farther than you might think, even in the deserts of the Southwest.

It's not about what any of us think. It's about what the San Bernardino County Sheriff Department considers to be a proper search radius. Helicopters and fixed aircraft flew much further than 5 miles, criss-crossing in increasing patterns. There was no FLIR (human heat signature would not work with the temperatures they had).

They did not have 80-90 people on the first afternoon, obviously. So they did not search in a huge circle that was 4-5 miles in radius (and they didn't have a helicopter right away, although IIRC, listening to the scanner, it was there early the next morning for sure).

But by day 10, they had spent 3 days searching east (and further than 5 miles away) and in gullies, nooks and crannies (also for at least 3 days).

People who get lost and walk 4-5 miles from their shelter in the desert do not usually fare well, but I don't think LE is equipped to find them all in time. It's a risk we take when we hike in the desert, at least I think so.

I am not right in Needles, but grew up in a place a couple of hours away that gets pretty darned hot and has cactus and creosote (but way more hills and many many gullies). I listen to the police scanner in events like this and have good friends in SAR (a couple of whom went out there on the last 2 days, the weekend days).

Glamourkitty, is this story getting lots of local news coverage? And do you remember any other cases like this one??

 

[MsBetsy]

Unfortunately, I'm not overly optimistic at this point. I think attention must focus on the last person to see her. I am suspicious about the timing of the purchase of that beautiful and impressive rv. What, only 3 weeks prior? And then it becomes "ground zero" for Barb's disappearance??

What would a new RV have to do with her disappearance? It was probably something they both were looking forward to. Imo

 

[LilacRocket]

I have read multiple reports in the past of missing persons being found within a a half mile or less of where they went missing, well after extensive searches of the area had already been conducted.

Perhaps she went back to the RV to use the bathroom, as another poster mentioned and, finding the RV locked, decided to find a discrete place outside to relieve herself (as I've done countless times when camping, hiking, etc. if no restroom was handy). She may have tried to go behind one of the rocks or something similar so as not to be seen from the road or trail and fallen or become wedged between the rocks.

I also feel like if the husband were involved he would come up with a more believable story or one that placed him further away at the time of her disappearance. Of course, stranger things than that happen all the time...

Lastly, is there a possibility that Barbara, arriving at the RV ahead of her husband, could have interrupted some type of theft either of the RV and vehicle or their contents and she was subdued and taken to a secondary location before the husband arrived?

Hoping for the best.

 

[LilacRocket]

WS link to case here:

MT - MT - Barbara Bolick, 55, Corvallis, 18 July 2007

The similarities in the two cases are eerily similar... I wonder if any connections are being explored by LE?

 

[10ofRods]

What would a new RV have to do with her disappearance? It was probably something they both were looking forward to. Imo

Well, because studies show that financial strain (large new purchases are on the list) increase (in a small way) the probability of domestic abuse and violence.

Naturally, most people who buy a new RV do not have problems. But financial stress (overseas plane tickets, new RV and new dually) could bump the chances up a little. My guess on that trailer is that it was $35-50K depending on interior features and the truck was $35-50K. Don't know about you, but that would be a big expense for me (and most retirees; they could surely have cashed out on prior real estate and now enjoy being spendy).

My first theory is that she is lost out there. But I also believe she would not have become lost quickly or easy and must have wandered quite a ways, thinking she was still heading to the RV. No mention has been made of her having a watch, and it's easy to think you've got farther to go (when in fact, you're not heading in the right direction). I just don't think she crossed the road and within 10-15 minutes, she left the RV and wandered eastward on that hot, non-scenic, gravel road...)

 

[PaulR]

It's not about what any of us think. It's about what the San Bernardino County Sheriff Department considers to be a proper search radius. Helicopters and fixed aircraft flew much further than 5 miles, criss-crossing in increasing patterns. There was no FLIR (human heat signature would not work with the temperatures they had).

They did not have 80-90 people on the first afternoon, obviously. So they did not search in a huge circle that was 4-5 miles in radius (and they didn't have a helicopter right away, although IIRC, listening to the scanner, it was there early the next morning for sure).

But by day 10, they had spent 3 days searching east (and further than 5 miles away) and in gullies, nooks and crannies (also for at least 3 days).

People who get lost and walk 4-5 miles from their shelter in the desert do not usually fare well, but I don't think LE is equipped to find them all in time. It's a risk we take when we hike in the desert, at least I think so.

I am not right in Needles, but grew up in a place a couple of hours away that gets pretty darned hot and has cactus and creosote (but way more hills and many many gullies). I listen to the police scanner in events like this and have good friends in SAR (a couple of whom went out there on the last 2 days, the weekend days).

They don't search everywhere though. SAR tries to make profiles of the lost person and makes educated guesses about where they would go. Take a 5 mile radius, assuming that's correct - that's pi*r^2, or 78.5 square miles, or a bit over 50,000 acres. There's no way SAR can search that much, not in three days, certainly not thoroughly.

How Arizona SAR describes an area search:

Area Searches are searches where segments (areas) are searched, rather than routes and locations. These searches are preceded by the entire search area being segmented. Then a consensus determination of the probability that the subject is in each of the segments of the search area is conducted, based on the assumption that the subject is immobile. Only a small number of searches reach this stage, but when they do, they are memorable and instructive!

Area Searches are characterized by the following:

• The subject is assumed to be immobile.
• They involve several to many operational periods.
• Multiple trained resources, both paid and volunteer, not all local, are used (ground teams, canines, helicopters, fixed wing aircraft, horses, vehicles, climbers, infrared radar and others).
• Multiple agencies are often involved (Sheriff, Police, Highway Patrol, National Park Service, Forest Service, FBI, military).
• There are many search segments. The emphasis is on searching these segments rather than on searching routes and specific locations.
• Search Theory is used.
• There is extensive media coverage, both good and bad, with some “on the front page”.
• There is pressure and anxiety on the search managers, as well as criticism of their actions, or lack of action.
• There are many “spontaneous” untrained volunteers, second guessers, and experts who seem to come out of the woodwork.

In this category of search the primary search tactic used is some form of a grid search, in the broadest sense. This could include a helicopter using a creeping line search, a ground team using critical separation, or a handler using an air-scent dog. Hasty Search tactics such as sign cutting and tracking may also be used in Area Searches.

That's a good description of what you are talking about, but they're making assumptions, and if they searched that much area, Probability of Detection goes down because everyone is covering ground instead of making sure they check everything. That's not a criticism of SAR, it's just how it works and is a good reason for people to be careful when they are outdoors.

 

[PaulR]

Naturally, most people who buy a new RV do not have problems. But financial stress (overseas plane tickets, new RV and new dually) could bump the chances up a little.

I've mentioned this before, but plane tickets to China from the west coast are cheap. Last time I checked from Las Vegas, flights the next day were going for ~$850. That's less expensive than many flights within the US.

 

[glamourkitty1922]

It's not about what any of us think. It's about what the San Bernardino County Sheriff Department considers to be a proper search radius. Helicopters and fixed aircraft flew much further than 5 miles, criss-crossing in increasing patterns. There was no FLIR (human heat signature would not work with the temperatures they had).

They did not have 80-90 people on the first afternoon, obviously. So they did not search in a huge circle that was 4-5 miles in radius (and they didn't have a helicopter right away, although IIRC, listening to the scanner, it was there early the next morning for sure).

But by day 10, they had spent 3 days searching east (and further than 5 miles away) and in gullies, nooks and crannies (also for at least 3 days).

People who get lost and walk 4-5 miles from their shelter in the desert do not usually fare well, but I don't think LE is equipped to find them all in time. It's a risk we take when we hike in the desert, at least I think so.

I am not right in Needles, but grew up in a place a couple of hours away that gets pretty darned hot and has cactus and creosote (but way more hills and many many gullies). I listen to the police scanner in events like this and have good friends in SAR (a couple of whom went out there on the last 2 days, the weekend days).

Glamourkitty, is this story getting lots of local news coverage? And do you remember any other cases like this one??

I only heard about it from Websleuths. Needles doesn't have a TV station, we get Phoenix and Las Vegas stations and there has been nothing there that I've seen. We do have a radio station, it might have been discussed. Needles Desert Star, our newspaper, had nothing on it when I read it Sunday. In doing a bit of research, the story is everywhere, even in the UK. But nothing I can find in Needles, Ft Mohave, Bullhead City, or Laughlin, which I think are the closest cities. I went to lunch last Tuesday in Bullhead City and there was nothing in the local paper that I read at the table.

 

[10ofRods]

They don't search everywhere though. SAR tries to make profiles of the lost person and makes educated guesses about where they would go. Take a 5 mile radius, assuming that's correct - that's pi*r^2, or 78.5 square miles, or a bit over 50,000 acres. There's no way SAR can search that much, not in three days, certainly not thoroughly.

How Arizona SAR describes an area search:



That's a good description of what you are talking about, but they're making assumptions, and if they searched that much area, Probability of Detection goes down because everyone is covering ground instead of making sure they check everything. That's not a criticism of SAR, it's just how it works and is a good reason for people to be careful when they are outdoors.

Yes, now you're acting as if I didn't just say the same thing. They arrived on a Friday night, it was not possible to search everywhere. They never search everywhere. No one has every searched the entire Mojave for anyone.

However, they do have methods for establishing an early (short) perimeter, based on averages. They also had some daylight. I think they did have a helicopter out but not for very long as it got dark.

For 9 days, they tweeted their search parameters (and did check some other nearby intersections, which is obvious why if you look at the aerial map of where RT says he last saw her). They widened it. They walked in brush that no normal hiker in a bikini would walk, as it was filled with cholla. Cholla look really nice, they are really nasty, even the non-jumping kind. And they even tweeted about that (at least some of the SAR team did). They could not look under every cholla (but what living person would be there?)

Later though, when it became an apparent body recovery, they did re-search the area and posted pictures of them, and their dogs, poking around under the cholla. Beating the bush, as it were. And of course, they had widened the radius of the search every day that they searched.

The first priority was to search trailside (there are many trails) and in obvious places, in search of a live person. The early perimeter (afternoon one) looks to be about 1.5-2.0 miles in each direction from where RT last saw her (which is why his information was crucial) and then, by next day, including 1.5-2.0 miles from where they were parked (on foot) and way bigger radius for the helicopter(s). I can't recall now if it is was one or two.

The first day, they confined themselves to grid squares located off the main trails (obviously). They walked close together and marked off their grids with flags (couldn't use string out there). Some areas were not closely examined by eye that first night (cholla thickets). Anyone going into a cholla thicket alive would start screaming.

They had no reason to believe Barbara had been out of sight of her husband for more than 10-15 minutes, that she was sane and sound when she walked less than half a mile to the RV, etc. I'm sure that as this search evolved, so did the view that RT needed to say more.

 

[MsBetsy]

Well, because studies show that financial strain (large new purchases are on the list) increase (in a small way) the probability of domestic abuse and violence.

Naturally, most people who buy a new RV do not have problems. But financial stress (overseas plane tickets, new RV and new dually) could bump the chances up a little. My guess on that trailer is that it was $35-50K depending on interior features and the truck was $35-50K. Don't know about you, but that would be a big expense for me (and most retirees; they could surely have cashed out on prior real estate and now enjoy being spendy).

My first theory is that she is lost out there. But I also believe she would not have become lost quickly or easy and must have wandered quite a ways, thinking she was still heading to the RV. No mention has been made of her having a watch, and it's easy to think you've got farther to go (when in fact, you're not heading in the right direction). I just don't think she crossed the road and within 10-15 minutes, she left the RV and wandered eastward on that hot, non-scenic, gravel road...)

Yes, financial problems can be a factor, but I haven't seen any reason to assume that was a problem for them. Lots of people buy RV's or expensive cars when they retire, especially when they are couples who enjoy travelling.

So that alone doesn't indicate to me that there was financial strain in the marriage. Imo

 

[PommyMommy]

July 22nd - The investigation continues into the whereabouts of missing person Barbara Thomas from SBSD - Colorado River Sheriffs Department : Nixle

July 12: An active search is underway with the assistance from Search & Rescue members, fire personnel, Park Rangers and Sheriff's Aviation.

July 13: Numerous Search & Rescue members, deputies, K9’s, Sheriff’s Aviation (helicopter) and Park Rangers.

July 14: The search involves numerous Search & Rescue members, deputies, K9’s, Sheriff’s Aviation(helicopter) and Park Rangers.

July 15: The search continues for missing person Barbara Thomas in the Mohave desert. Barbara was last seen in the area of Kelbaker/Hidden Hills near the 1-40.

July 16: Nearly 20 Search and Rescue volunteers, and deputies assigned to the River Station are continuing the search. Off road vehicles are being utilized to allow searchers to cover additional area.

July 17: Search and Rescue volunteers, 3 K9 Units, Sheriff's Aviation and personnel from the River Station are continuing to search the Mohave Desert in the area of Kelbaker/Hidden Hills near the 1-40. Search efforts began this morning at sun up.

July 18: Search and Rescue volunteers, a K9 unit, Sheriff's Aviation and personnel from the River Station are continuing to search the Mohave Desert in the are of Kelbaker/Hidden Hills near the 1-40. Search teams were deployed into the field at 5:00 am.

July 19: Search and Rescue members are utilizing off road vehicles, K9 units and hikers. The search resumed just after sunrise this morning. The search will include aerial support throughout the day.

July 20: Eighty (80) Search and Rescue members from throughout the San Bernardino County Sheriff's Department were deployed into the field this morning just after sunrise. Off-road vehicles, K9 units, certified in cave searches, rope climbing and desert terrain ground hikers are being utilized today. Aviation will be assisting throughout the search operation.

July 21: Search and Rescue members from throughout the San Bernardino County Sheriff's Department were deployed into the field this morning just after sunrise. K9 units, members certified in cave searches, rope climbing and desert terrain ground searchers were utilized today.

The search has been suspended for the day due to extreme temperatures.

July 22: The ongoing daily searches for Barbara Thomas in the Mohave National Preserve have been suspended. Additional searches will be conducted as any additional information is developed in the investigation.

Detectives from the Specialized Investigations Division have assumed the investigation as is standard department policy when a missing person has not been located.

 

[Liwthe]

You are Correct

Really? What if he is in distress and simply saying what he thinks will get a kidnapper that he believes has his beloved wife to let her go?

 

[Hatfield]

Google Maps

This is where I think they pulled over.. The map is a 360 view and you can also zoom out and go above the zone..
He wanted to hike out there to the rocks and take pics.. She decided to walk back.
This is what he called a highway that she would have to cross.. jmho

Thanks for the map link. That really helps to get an idea of the terrain they were in.

JMO
If that is where they parked then I do find it a little strange to try to walk to those rock cliffs in the distance with the attire they had on, if that is where they were headed. There is a small scale at bottom right of map and from what I measured, it would be around 3,000 feet or more to the beginning of the rock cliffs which is 0.57 miles. A little over 1/2 mile to the base of the rock cliffs, if estimate is about right.

Its doable for sure, but would it be worth it in that heat and attire or would you take pictures from right there at the car and then drive some more to see if there are better views of things right off the road.

 

[topockaz]

It is just unusual for a missing person to go unmentioned. I understand that the heat complicates search efforts but something had to make them suspend searches on that 9th day. IF they thought she was out there lost or hurt I don't believe they would have done that. And I don't know if LE is concerned, they just don't seem concerned, no press conferences, no pleas to find her or call in with tips like we see in many other missing person cases.

The Arizona Department of Emergency Management has data on how far lost elderly (65+) have traveled - 50th percentile is 1.35 miles, 75th percentile is 3.82 miles.

So the elderly can walk a lot farther than you might think, even in the deserts of the Southwest.

The Arizona Department of Emergency Management has data on how far lost elderly (65+) have traveled - 50th percentile is 1.35 miles, 75th percentile is 3.82 miles.

So the elderly can walk a lot farther than you might think, even in the deserts of the Southwest.

 

[topockaz]

But how far can they in 100 plus temperatures.

 

[10ofRods]

I only heard about it from Websleuths. Needles doesn't have a TV station, we get Phoenix and Las Vegas stations and there has been nothing there that I've seen. We do have a radio station, it might have been discussed. Needles Desert Star, our newspaper, had nothing on it when I read it Sunday. In doing a bit of research, the story is everywhere, even in the UK. But nothing I can find in Needles, Ft Mohave, Bullhead City, or Laughlin, which I think are the closest cities. I went to lunch last Tuesday in Bullhead City and there was nothing in the local paper that I read at the table.

Wow. It’s just so odd. Of course if LE believes she’s still out there, dead due to misadventure, they’re not going to keep putting it in public eye.

 

[rosesfromangels]

Please let us know if there is some way we may assist you.

This is about as close as we can come:

So....
I took an aerial/satellite view of kelbaker and hidden hill, the area where folks seem to think the RV was.

Please do the same, and let me know if your stomach reacts the same way mine just did.

<modsnip - implying inside info>

I look forward to your reaction as well.

Amateur opinion and speculation