CA/Canada - Elisa Lam - 21 years old - Los Angeles/Vancouver - 31-Jan-2013 - #3
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smash the stack
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A hypothesis is a possible scenario or answer that does not have evidence to back it up and has not been tested. A theory has been tested and generally accepted.
The point is, if you offer scenarios with no evidence or base in fact, you can't expect anyone to really want to debate the points you are attempting to make because there is nothing to do but debate conjecture with speculation.
Regarding the post four_seasons made above... I had a look at the Chinese link http://tieba.baidu.com/p/2179533681?see_lz=1&pn=1
I am translating the main gist of it.. as follows :
"Its now 5.10 pm."
"The hotel elevators are all very dingy, small, tight spaced inside. Almost every single floor has a couple of toilets and shower rooms next to the elevator door. Some of these floors have a mirror on the wall opposite the elevator doors. Some of these floors have stairways right next to the elevator doors."
"Appears to be business as usual in the hotel. The hotel has never shut down business. Prices of rooms gone up, coffeeshop and convenience store in hotel shut down. 3 security staff behind me looking like they're coming my way, so I'm a bit wary of being seen with cameras shooting pics." (many of the pics taken in the lobby were very shaky or blurred, presumably the photographer was hastily trying to get some shots covertly)
"Button panel in *both* elevators are on the LEFT side ... which is strange since the panel in the Elisa Lam video appears to be on the right side of the lift. I tried searching around for any other elevators in the hotel but these two seemed to be the only ones I could find. "
"Door hold button works. Keeps doors open for longer when pressed. "
"Corridors to hotel rooms have no surveillance cameras" (or at least, none that he could see).
"On the 14th floor, the large round mirror is on the wall opposite the lifts."
"I'm embarassed to say, I was wrong earlier on. The button panel in the elevator Elisa was in is actually located on the right side of the elevator, not the left as I'd mentioned earlier."
"I don't know why, today there are fewer security staff than yesterday. Only 2 Mexican security staff at the entrance. Water is not as weird tasting as yesterday's too. Me and my companion lingered around here for about half an hour. We smelled a really horrid smell. It was definitely a different and distinctive smell from the other floors."
"Outside the hotel at noon time, the Korean-owned Sushi shop and Mexican roast chicken shop nearby are both closed. Its a Sunday and to Americans, Sunday is a day of rest."
"There are stairs on both sides of the elevators."
"Our room even has a telephone. Not sure if anyone has ever played the card game UNO, I have never seen it in my country."
If any of you want to look at the photos yourself, click on the link above, scroll down until you see the photo of the road/shops that the Hotel Cecil is on, click on that, and you should be able to scroll left/right to view them. There are a total of 19 pics in that album.
I am translating the main gist of it.. as follows :
"Its now 5.10 pm."
"The hotel elevators are all very dingy, small, tight spaced inside. Almost every single floor has a couple of toilets and shower rooms next to the elevator door. Some of these floors have a mirror on the wall opposite the elevator doors. Some of these floors have stairways right next to the elevator doors."
"Appears to be business as usual in the hotel. The hotel has never shut down business. Prices of rooms gone up, coffeeshop and convenience store in hotel shut down. 3 security staff behind me looking like they're coming my way, so I'm a bit wary of being seen with cameras shooting pics." (many of the pics taken in the lobby were very shaky or blurred, presumably the photographer was hastily trying to get some shots covertly)
"Button panel in *both* elevators are on the LEFT side ... which is strange since the panel in the Elisa Lam video appears to be on the right side of the lift. I tried searching around for any other elevators in the hotel but these two seemed to be the only ones I could find. "
"Door hold button works. Keeps doors open for longer when pressed. "
"Corridors to hotel rooms have no surveillance cameras" (or at least, none that he could see).
"On the 14th floor, the large round mirror is on the wall opposite the lifts."
"I'm embarassed to say, I was wrong earlier on. The button panel in the elevator Elisa was in is actually located on the right side of the elevator, not the left as I'd mentioned earlier."
"I don't know why, today there are fewer security staff than yesterday. Only 2 Mexican security staff at the entrance. Water is not as weird tasting as yesterday's too. Me and my companion lingered around here for about half an hour. We smelled a really horrid smell. It was definitely a different and distinctive smell from the other floors."
"Outside the hotel at noon time, the Korean-owned Sushi shop and Mexican roast chicken shop nearby are both closed. Its a Sunday and to Americans, Sunday is a day of rest."
"There are stairs on both sides of the elevators."
"Our room even has a telephone. Not sure if anyone has ever played the card game UNO, I have never seen it in my country."
If any of you want to look at the photos yourself, click on the link above, scroll down until you see the photo of the road/shops that the Hotel Cecil is on, click on that, and you should be able to scroll left/right to view them. There are a total of 19 pics in that album.
The funny is,.. We are all assuming, everything in these threads about EL is all without any evidence tho there are some stories from peeps who have been there but obviously not with EL. the rest is all just assuming if if if maybe maybe i think this i think that.. Some things i see are already taken for fact by some but lets not forget, The video itself is no evidence what so ever , only Lam is in it. Hell far as i know its even possible there is a huge time gap between the elevator and her death/meeting her killer.
Lets face it,... Crimes dont get solved at the hand of 1 vague video.
Only LE knows the ins and outs, i suppose
Lets face it,... Crimes dont get solved at the hand of 1 vague video.
Only LE knows the ins and outs, i suppose
evacuation plan of 14th floor from Mr. Yam
note: No Rooftop access on the left stair
and Rootftop access on the right stair
Peter Brendt
New Member
Most killers are, aside of the fact, they are killers, also human beings. Human beings watch TV which in our days has led to every unsub knowing a lot more about police allegedly works. I've observed in other cases, how this "common TV knowledge" worked out.
This guy kills Elisa, but not on the roof. So he has her probably in his room. Does he panic? No! He waits for the night and brings her up and stuffs the body in the tank. That indicates, he was not in panic. Now he has several options. Lets look first on the when to leave problem:
- He can run. But he can also guess, that LE will look for everyone who left Feb. 1st even when the reservation was longer.
- or he can stay till the time his reservation ends and very normal leave the hotel. Which doesn't mark him as suspect and he can basically hide in plain side.
So, instead to get an APB to be questioned on his nack, he just sits out some days and can go his merry ways without any questions asked. And after he is out of LA, nobody knows anyway that he was there. Latest two hotels later nobody who meets him would even come to the idea to ask him whether he was in the Cecil in LA. So, as long, as he can hold his nerves together, he can only win by waiting for the end of his reservation. That is, if he isn't lucky enough to have booked there only till Feb 1st in the first place.
Now the same for the cloths. Ha had to assume, people saw Elisa and may remember the clothes she wore. He maybe even can conclude, she was with those clothes on some security images. He can't put the clothes in the tank with her. Every CSI watcher "knows", clothes hold all kind of fibers including spores of the one plant that in the whole world only grows next to his room door in the Cecil. It'S not how the real world works, but thanks to Jerry Bruckheimer, a lot of killers think that way about such details. So, he has to destroy the clothes, he don'T want to leave them behind he don't want to get caught with them, he has to destroy them. Options?
- burning. Causes smoke detectors to react unfriendly
- put them in a garbage can. Well, in TV, police does a lot of dumpster diving. He has touched those clothes. No way, he let a dumpster diving cop find those things.
- rip or cut them to pieces and flush them down. One by one. He can do it in his room, no potential witnesses, nothing to save from dumpsters.
The problem is, he can't do that with anything made from plastic. Credit cards, IDs, and of course, cell phones. He has a problem with that. The other problem is, he is too cold in his decisions. He is not panicking, he shows no signs of remorse or disgust. Lets hope, he didn't enjoy it so much that he keeps for example the cell phone as souvenir.
Oh thanks for the clarification, I was mixing up my words. Hypothesis it is.
And for you to claim I have no base behind my hypothesis is silly. Especially when considering my thought that maybe booze and pills could be the culprit.
The base is that she is known to take medication. No not on the night of this incident but yes in life, it was shown that she is not unfamiliar with medications.
As far as the booze... Who knows. The majority of the 21 year old girls i know like to have a cocktail now and again.
It could explain why she's so animated? Could explain why she has to look so closely at the buttons. It's just a thought.
So how is that no base?
I can see what you're saying and how you are getting to those ideas. He very well might have been playing cool yep. That's one badasss individual if u ask me tho. I imagine more panic but if this person has done this before then yes they probably had all that thought out.
Why can't he flush plastic tho?
Peter Brendt
New Member
I want to come back on the water quality once more, since there is so much talk about the water quality was as it was posted tested Feb 14th routinely and found normal.
Given the number of the persons in the hotel, there is always water going out from those tanks. And fresh uncontaminated water comes in when the tank refills. Thus, and given the sheer volume of those tanks, there will be no concentration of any decomposition products and bacteria that will red flag the water quality. My brain is too "metric" to do the math in imperial units and I have no idea, how to write that kind of formula in this editor (the math includes in this case at least a differential). So, this will look clumsy:
The concentration is measured in bacteria/liter
A decomposing body produces a limited amount of bacteria/hour
The concentration would be
(Bacteria/hour) / (LitersInTheTank)
LitersInTheTank at every given time T would depend on what goes out and what goes in. Just to give an impression, if 200 people use each 5 liters/day, this makes 1000 liters/day going out of those tanks. And those 1000 liters when replaced later, will be replaced with fresh water.
So in fact the amount in the tank would be
VolumeOfTheTank-deltaOut+deltaIn for which we know, that (because the tanks don't refill immidiately)
deltaOut >= deltaIn
So, deltaOut is basically low contaminated water and at that, at any given time T to low contaminated to cause a red flag because due to the first equation, there is a limited amount of bacteria/hour, but between water outflows not enough hours to concentrate anything.
deltaIn is uncontaminated water, leading basically to the next round of dissolution of the remaining bacteria in more fresh water.
Bottom line: A test of water quality at Feb 14th doesn't say, the body wasn't in the tank.
Given the number of the persons in the hotel, there is always water going out from those tanks. And fresh uncontaminated water comes in when the tank refills. Thus, and given the sheer volume of those tanks, there will be no concentration of any decomposition products and bacteria that will red flag the water quality. My brain is too "metric" to do the math in imperial units and I have no idea, how to write that kind of formula in this editor (the math includes in this case at least a differential). So, this will look clumsy:
The concentration is measured in bacteria/liter
A decomposing body produces a limited amount of bacteria/hour
The concentration would be
(Bacteria/hour) / (LitersInTheTank)
LitersInTheTank at every given time T would depend on what goes out and what goes in. Just to give an impression, if 200 people use each 5 liters/day, this makes 1000 liters/day going out of those tanks. And those 1000 liters when replaced later, will be replaced with fresh water.
So in fact the amount in the tank would be
VolumeOfTheTank-deltaOut+deltaIn for which we know, that (because the tanks don't refill immidiately)
deltaOut >= deltaIn
So, deltaOut is basically low contaminated water and at that, at any given time T to low contaminated to cause a red flag because due to the first equation, there is a limited amount of bacteria/hour, but between water outflows not enough hours to concentrate anything.
deltaIn is uncontaminated water, leading basically to the next round of dissolution of the remaining bacteria in more fresh water.
Bottom line: A test of water quality at Feb 14th doesn't say, the body wasn't in the tank.
evacuation plan of 14th floor from Mr. Yam
note: No Rooftop access on the left stair
and Rootftop access on the right stair
maybe someone have pointed this out already,
sorry if it did.
By looking at this evacuation plan,
actually when EL was jumping out of the elevators and checking out both side,
people could have hidden behind the wall next to the elevators without her seeing, as she have not been leaving the sight of the camera during the first part of the video.
four_seasons
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Here are the videos that they took and posted:
[ame="http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTE4MjgwNjUy.html"]å»é åºææ¢èå¯å¿âå¨çº¿ææ¾âä¼é ·ç½ï¼è§é¢é«æ¸ å¨çº¿è§ç[/ame]
[ame="http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTE4MjkyNDY0.html"]é åºé¨å£èå¯å¿âå¨çº¿ææ¾âä¼é ·ç½ï¼è§é¢é«æ¸ å¨çº¿è§ç[/ame]
[ame="http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTE4NzY1MzYw.html"]å³è¾¹çµæ¢¯âå¨çº¿ææ¾âä¼é ·ç½ï¼è§é¢é«æ¸ å¨çº¿è§ç[/ame] testing right elevator
[ame="http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTE4ODQ1NTU2.html"]第äºæ¬¡å»14楼âå¨çº¿ææ¾âä¼é ·ç½ï¼è§é¢é«æ¸ å¨çº¿è§ç[/ame] going to the 14th floor for the 2nd time
[ame="http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTE4Nzk0MTk2.html"]左边çµæ¢¯âå¨çº¿ææ¾âä¼é ·ç½ï¼è§é¢é«æ¸ å¨çº¿è§ç[/ame] left elevator test
[ame="http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTE5MjQwNDcy.html"]èå¯å¿çµæ¢¯HOLDé®æµè¯âå¨çº¿ææ¾âä¼é ·ç½ï¼è§é¢é«æ¸ å¨çº¿è§ç[/ame] Testing the door hold key
on a side note from Eathan: floors 1-6 belongs to a different hotel (Stay) so the elevator buttons light up in red, floors 7-15 light up in Green and are part of Cecil. There are rooms on the 15th floor.
[ame="http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTE4MjgwNjUy.html"]å»é åºææ¢èå¯å¿âå¨çº¿ææ¾âä¼é ·ç½ï¼è§é¢é«æ¸ å¨çº¿è§ç[/ame]
[ame="http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTE4MjkyNDY0.html"]é åºé¨å£èå¯å¿âå¨çº¿ææ¾âä¼é ·ç½ï¼è§é¢é«æ¸ å¨çº¿è§ç[/ame]
[ame="http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTE4NzY1MzYw.html"]å³è¾¹çµæ¢¯âå¨çº¿ææ¾âä¼é ·ç½ï¼è§é¢é«æ¸ å¨çº¿è§ç[/ame] testing right elevator
[ame="http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTE4ODQ1NTU2.html"]第äºæ¬¡å»14楼âå¨çº¿ææ¾âä¼é ·ç½ï¼è§é¢é«æ¸ å¨çº¿è§ç[/ame] going to the 14th floor for the 2nd time
[ame="http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTE4Nzk0MTk2.html"]左边çµæ¢¯âå¨çº¿ææ¾âä¼é ·ç½ï¼è§é¢é«æ¸ å¨çº¿è§ç[/ame] left elevator test
[ame="http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTE5MjQwNDcy.html"]èå¯å¿çµæ¢¯HOLDé®æµè¯âå¨çº¿ææ¾âä¼é ·ç½ï¼è§é¢é«æ¸ å¨çº¿è§ç[/ame] Testing the door hold key
on a side note from Eathan: floors 1-6 belongs to a different hotel (Stay) so the elevator buttons light up in red, floors 7-15 light up in Green and are part of Cecil. There are rooms on the 15th floor.
Poor Elisa. She was suffering from depression, being bi-polar, sleepwalking on Ambian, a psychotic break, under the influence of drugs and/or alcohol, readjusting to her new medication, suicidal, OCD, you-name-it.
I'm sure the toxicology reports will whittle down the list of Elisa's possible maladies.
To me on the video she looked like she was fooling around, her movements were fluid, (unlike if she was under the influence), she appeared alert and aware of her surroundings, all in a three-minute video clip. By Elisa's writings, she came across as a typical 20-something trying to figure out where she was headed, lamenting the loss of love, trying to find it, being all too self-critical, a people pleaser.
It reeks of foul play, though. Makes no sense whatsoever that she would voluntarily put herself into a water tank on top of the roof.
Interesting that nothing else has been released (POI, more video, LE news conferences).
Elisa was a vibrant young lady who left us far too soon and tragically.
I'm sure the toxicology reports will whittle down the list of Elisa's possible maladies.
To me on the video she looked like she was fooling around, her movements were fluid, (unlike if she was under the influence), she appeared alert and aware of her surroundings, all in a three-minute video clip. By Elisa's writings, she came across as a typical 20-something trying to figure out where she was headed, lamenting the loss of love, trying to find it, being all too self-critical, a people pleaser.
It reeks of foul play, though. Makes no sense whatsoever that she would voluntarily put herself into a water tank on top of the roof.
Interesting that nothing else has been released (POI, more video, LE news conferences).
Elisa was a vibrant young lady who left us far too soon and tragically.
This seems in consistent with the EL video.
She pressed all the button in middle column.
14,10,7,4,M,B, door hold
and there is no red light for 4th floor.
Someone brought up the idea of her corpse blocking the water runoff (don't know if this is the right term for it, I'm not a native English speaker) causing the big bang, some 89 year old hotel resident reported of.
A corpse put in water will first sink to the ground for approx. 7 days, as soon as enough gas is produced by the decomposition (depending on the water's temperature), it is going to rise up. As they know the temperature of the water in those tanks, it may be possible to say for how long her body has been floating in there approximately.
A corpse put in water will first sink to the ground for approx. 7 days, as soon as enough gas is produced by the decomposition (depending on the water's temperature), it is going to rise up. As they know the temperature of the water in those tanks, it may be possible to say for how long her body has been floating in there approximately.
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Don't really know that this detail helps at all with the case, but did anyone else notice the skylight on the roof? Or is that a skylight? (the red thing with what looks to be glass windows?) I wonder what room is under it or if anyone would be in that room and if they could have saw anything like lights or someone looking down there or heard something? I know we don't know the answers to these questions and I can't think of how that factors in, but I haven't heard it mentioned, so I thought I'd throw it out there, and I was curious.
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I was thinking by perp so it would be more difficult to access 15th floor. Buying a few extra minutes to move body. moo
summer_breeze
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Media articles and pictures from Thread #1 are copied in. I'll tackle Thread #2 tomorrow. If anyone else wants to add, please feel free!
Creating a timeline/media links thread as previously mentioned could be helpful. But even these three "facts" as published (links below) have come under dispute...
1) It was reported that her nude body was found, but posters have questioned this. (No reply from my email inquiry to the reporter for verification, btw)
2) It was reported that search dogs didn't detect her scent on the roof, but posters have said the dogs likely made a mistake.
3) It was reported that the interviewed resident (BDiaz who heard a "tremendous" noise above his room AND reported flooding on the fourth floor) has lived on the 3rd floor for 32 years, but posters have disputed this saying he actually lives on the 14th or 15th floors.
Are all three of these media reports faulty or could we be trying to make the facts fit our theories???
http://webcache.googleusercontent.c...-downtown-la-hotel/+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lan...st-found-in-water-tank-of-skid-row-hotel.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...water-tank-at-cursed-cecil-hotel-8504729.html
1) It was reported that her nude body was found, but posters have questioned this. (No reply from my email inquiry to the reporter for verification, btw)
2) It was reported that search dogs didn't detect her scent on the roof, but posters have said the dogs likely made a mistake.
3) It was reported that the interviewed resident (BDiaz who heard a "tremendous" noise above his room AND reported flooding on the fourth floor) has lived on the 3rd floor for 32 years, but posters have disputed this saying he actually lives on the 14th or 15th floors.
Are all three of these media reports faulty or could we be trying to make the facts fit our theories???
http://webcache.googleusercontent.c...-downtown-la-hotel/+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lan...st-found-in-water-tank-of-skid-row-hotel.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...water-tank-at-cursed-cecil-hotel-8504729.html
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