Hi! Im another newbie/former lurker. Ive been obsessed with this case and have read all of the prior threads here on it. So much good sleuthing.
I am fairly flummoxed by the video, and since we dont know how soon she died after that video (minutes? hours), I decided to focus mainly on how she ended up dead in a rooftop water tank. These are the major possibilities I came up with. Please add or refute as you see fit!
How does she get up on the roof?
1. She knows about the fire escape access (or a new friend tells her about it) and climbs up there on her own.
2. She knows from previously trying or from a new friend that the fire door is unlocked and alarm doesnt work.
3. Someone lures her up there, whether by force (unlikely, IMO) or with the promise of socializing, fun, view of skyline, whatnot.
These first three options mean she goes up on the roof alive and dies there, either by accident, suicide, or homicide. Or shes dead/unconscious:
4. She is assaulted in her room or elsewhere in the hotel by an employee with roof access through the door (key), or who knows that the door is unlocked/alarm doesnt work and that the roof is unoccupied. Then shes brought to the roof by this person, either unconscious or already dead.
5. She is assaulted in her room or elsewhere in the hotel by a fellow guest or longtime resident who knows that the door is unlocked/alarm doesnt work and that the roof is unoccupied. Then shes brought to the roof by this person, either unconscious or already dead.
IMO, the least likely scenario is:
6. She is assaulted in her room or elsewhere in the hotel by an employee, resident, or guest and brought up to the roof, either unconscious or dead, to the fire escape. Unless youve got two perps, this seems too physically difficult.
How does she get into the water tank?
1. She researches the hotel ahead of time, knows there are tanks, and goes up to the roof with the intent of either playing around in them or killing herself.
2. She is up on the roof, either at the time of her death or earlier, sees the tanks, and decides to climb into one, either playing around or with the intention of killing herself. If an accident, she could be alone or with other people (assuming its a game or shes hiding from someone
3. She is murdered elsewhere and placed in the tank (either view ladder or by dropping her from above).
4. She is murdered on the roof and placed in the tank. (Judging by the new pics of beer bottles, etc., on the roof, its clear this was a party place. Maybe she interrupts an employee/resident party, they assault and kill her, and put her body in the tank.)
5. She falls/overdoses/dies accidentally and is placed in the tank by the people shes with.
6. She is placed in one of the tanks alive and dies then or later on (presumably from hypothermia, suffocation (if the hatch is closed), or drowning (was this absolutely ruled out?).
BTW, I did a search for people who have died in water tanks. The results I found were either by accident or suicide. The accidents seem to involve children who fell in ground-level tanks or workers who fell in while cleaning a tank. The suicides range from people hanging themselves outside the tank, to drowning themselves inside them (not on rooftops, though, as far as I can tell), to jumping off the outside of tall water tanks. Apparently there is quite a problem with water tank-related suicides in India, but nothing like what we see in this case.
Arguments for/against manner of death:
Accident:
Pro: She sounds free-spirited (solo travel) and friendly. Could have made new friends and tried to climb and enter the tank on a dare. Or she could have tried to hide in it, either from someone chasing her or as the result of a game (it does appear that she could be playing elevator tag in the video). The tanks latch was apparently unlocked and she could have accessed the roof as described above.
Con: Thats a pretty specific accident to have. I also think that if she died accidentally near the tank, its relatively unlikely that her friends would have gone through the trouble to put her in the tank. Maybe theyd drag her in back of something or just leave her on the roof, but I would think that if they were freaked out, theyd want to take off asap.
Suicide:
Pro: Shes admittedly depressed, bipolar, confused about her future, and an insomniac. Some of her posts on her pre-Tumbler blog seem rather bleak. A tank seems like a weird place to die, but there have been stranger suicides. As someone here noted earlier, there was also a case of a NJ man who committed suicide in a water tank. People go off into the woods and kill themselves, never to be foundthey dont want to be found right away or everso I can see why she might do this.
Con: Why the tank when she could just jump off the roof, hang herself, or presumably OD on prescription meds/drugs in her room? It doesnt seem like a foolproof way to go. Unless she went into the tank, didnt die right away, changed her mind, and then couldnt get out. Plus, could she have closed the hatch to the tank? Also, she was very active on social media and didnt leave any kind of farewell post, not that this is especially common.
Homicide:
Pro: Shes friendly, outgoing, slightly loopy/silly according to some, a woman, relatively small, and possibly either experiencing a mental break or on some kind of mind-altering medication or drug in the video. All of which is to say, she makes a pretty ideal victim. The hotel has a fairly large population of questionable residents who know the building, as well as short-term international travelers who could make a quick escape. Plus, it has security guards and presumably maintenance men, who may have keys to all the rooms. (I have read about cases where women were raped/murdered in their own apartments by security guards/maintenance men.) BTW, Im aware that there are at least two sex offenders in the hotel, but they are both pretty old and their convictions were for child rape/molestation. Not saying they couldnt do this, but she may not be their target victim. Of course, there could be all sorts of other nefarious characters in the hotel.
Con: I think this was a homicide, simply because of the logistics of getting her in the tank. It could be that she was killed accidentally or intentionally. Maybe smothered by pillow mid-assault? However, the killer would have to be someone familiar enough with the building to get up on the roof sight unseen and/or without setting off alarms. I would guess that taking her (dead weight) up the fire escape ladder would be too difficult. Why not just throw her off the building then?
What is she doing in the elevator?
I have no idea, but I lean toward her being drugged on something (either intentionally or not), including Ambien. Google sleepwalking on Ambien. It can make you do some crazy stuffIve seen it in my friends and mother, who takes it. I do question the presence of her sandals, etc., if thats the case, but I suppose if you can drive a car on Ambien, you can put on some shoes and a hoodie.
My other guess is that shes fooling around or playing elevator tag with someone. If this is the case and she intends to go on the roof later, it might explain the hoodie.
Her glasses: We have no idea what her prescription is, how often she wears them, etc. I wear glasses mainly for distance but tend to take them off if Im just walking around inside, socializing, etc. The fact is, we just dont know how bad her eyesight is. If she really cant see without them, then that could explain her button-pushing behavior, but not really anything else (including how she could climb up a fire escape and/or into a water tank at night if she went willingly).
What I dont think happened:
- cult sacrifice
- inside job to get publicity for the hotel
The first is intriguing because all the weird coincidences people have mentioned here, but I just dont think its likely.
The second seems less plausible because the new owner (who did the renovations and added Stay) has been very vocal about trying to demonstrate that the Cecil/Stay are not crappy, dangerous, etc. If you read the online reviews (tripadvisor, peoples blogs) he comments and refutes their complaints. Seems like the last thing he would want is bad publicity. Of course, you could argue that someone has it in for him and killed her, but that seems like a bit of a stretch.
In the end, I suspect that, if this case is solved, it will show one of the simpler explanations: She was killed by a resident/employee/guest because they saw an easy mark, tried to assault/rape her, murdered her, and then needed to hide the body because they couldnt keep it in their room.
JMO, of course. Eager to keep seeing everyones ideas!