CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #4

[gitana1]

We know that the family lived within 15 minutes of the trail and that JG searched Hites Cove on his phone app on Saturday. It seems to me that they arrived at the planned location, probably around 8 AM, and had no reason whatsoever to push themselves on this specific date. It's not like they couldn't return to Hites Cove on another day! I can't think of any reason why they would have hesitated to leave after 2 hours or less, unless they were somehow incapacitated. MOO

To go back out they would have to climb back up the way they came down. Maybe that made them think it wouldn’t make a difference whether they completed the loop or doubled back.

ETA: The fact that he searched Hites Cove on his phone that day indicated this wasn’t a simple, neighborhood hike. They weren’t familiar with the trail, IMO.

 

[gitana1]

I agree that we'll never know exactly why this happened, it's not something that would be included in a last text message, but here's my best guess. At the end, they had only a "small amount" of water left, according to the sheriff. It seems probable to me that the humans did NOT drink the water from the river, if they had been desperate enough to do that they would have refilled the camelback. There has been plenty of time to test the water in the camelback, and no word, but they HAVE reported that toxic algae was found in samples from the river. My guess: the camelback came back negative and the sheriff didn't think that was newsworthy. I think they heeded the warnings about not drinking the water, or coming into contact with it, and knew they were running out of safe water. As Runningwithdogs says, the dog would have been suffering in the heat, and likely the baby too. Those three things might have motivated them to hurry up the trail to the safety of their truck. Indirectly, the toxic algae led to their deaths. MOO.

Yeah if they only had a small amount of water left halfway up a barren, steep trail with no shade in sight, I don’t think they could’ve made it out without getting super sick.

And yet the investigators are acting like this is a huge mystery. So something doesn’t add up to them.

 

[FlowergirlinWard1]

I believe we’re going to have to wait anywhere between 2-5 weeks for the final update.

 

[katydid23]

When I hike with my partner I’m quite often the only one who carries a phone. We figure we just need one.

I think it is best to have two, in case of emergencies. Let's say one of you is injured and cannot walk further. So one continues on to try and get help, because the phones aren't getting service there. Once you get service and call for help, it is still a good thing if the injured partner has their phone. Maybe coverage begins working and you can text each other with updates?

Or one might need to use 'findMyPhone' if you get separated somehow?

 

[wary]

<modsnip - quoted post was removed>

MOO

My guess is—a combination of naïveté and overconfidence. They’ve hiked the Himalayas; they’ve hiked the Gobi Desert; how could a trail 20 minutes away from where they live, how could it be dangerous? I think that if this idea had been verbalized, they’d have intelligently spotted the fallacy. But sometimes we internalize ideas like this, without analyzing them.


MOO

Or, and this is where evidence showing how they packed, how many diapers they brought along, would be useful—what if they planned for a short practical walk, and something incapacitating other than heat happened? In that scenario, the heat may still have been what killed them, but the heart attack, the serious reaction to a bee sting, possibly even a sprained ankle, might have kept them on the trail long enough for the heat to take its toll.

Again, merely my speculation.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

I’m with you, speculating as such in detail 1800 posts ago.

The sad irony is that despite their many underestimations, the one overestimation—the threat of the cautionary algal warning—led to their doom.

Their intended destination, the South Fork, was their antidote that fateful day. Tragically, they dismissed it. OOO

I'm new and missed that. Well said, I totally agree.

 

[Seattle1]

To go back out they would have to climb back up the way they came down. Maybe that made them think it wouldn’t make a difference whether they completed the loop or doubled back.

ETA: The fact that he searched Hites Cove on his phone that day indicated this wasn’t a simple, neighborhood hike. They weren’t familiar with the trail, IMO.

But weren't they found on the Savage-Lundy Trail?

The only thing I know for certain is they were found 1.5 miles from their vehicle.

Briese said the family was found about 1.5 miles from their vehicle, a gray truck. It was parked at a trailhead down Hites Cove Road past the Jerseydale Sierra National Forest station and community of Mariposa Pines.

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article253642528.html

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

Yeah if they only had a small amount of water left halfway up a barren, steep trail with no shade in sight, I don’t think they could’ve made it out without getting super sick.

And yet the investigators are acting like this is a huge mystery. So something doesn’t add up to them.

It is a very unusual case. The sheriff is right to keep an open mind, and I would speculate that he doesn't want to sound like he's blaming the victims. MOO.

 

[jonjon747]

2 MPH is pretty much in line with JG's hikes recorded at AllTrails a few months earlier (~25-30 min/mile pace). These hikes may or may not have been with others. One fast hike on May 18 was at 19 min/mile pace. I would guess that was by himself. That's a bit faster than the average hiker pace.

Thanks for the info. I didn't know he was a speedy hiker.
Was he fast on medium-difficult trails or just at an average trails?
Carrying a 1 yo baby with camel back through steep trails seems really like a daunting task for anyone imo.
Maybe he had a great stamina like that of an Olympic athlete.

 

[Seattle1]

Former Newcastle student and family may have been killed by lightning strike

A former Newcastle student and his family who were all found dead on a US hiking trail could have been killed by a lightning strike, investigators say.

Jonathan Gerrish, 45, his wife Ellen Chung, 31, and daughter Muji, one, were discovered in the remote Sierra National Forest in California nearly three weeks ago. The family dog was also found dead.

Investigators looking at the mysterious deaths have been probing theories including the possibility the family were killed by carbon monoxide poisoning, or from coming into contact with toxic algae.

 

[mickey2942]

I think it is best to have two, in case of emergencies. Let's say one of you is injured and cannot walk further. So one continues on to try and get help, because the phones aren't getting service there. Once you get service and call for help, it is still a good thing if the injured partner has their phone. Maybe coverage begins working and you can text each other with updates?

Or one might need to use 'findMyPhone' if you get separated somehow?

Heck. When I go to Walmart with my husband, before we head in, I check to make sure he has his cellphone.

 

[MsBetsy]

<modsnip - quoted post was removed>
Even if they died from a heart attack, I think they would still need to investigate further to find the cause, since both lightning strike and heatstroke can result in cardiac arrest.

I don't think they were prepared for staying out very long in the extreme heat, since they only had one badder of water with them. If it was a camelbak, it would only hold 3 liters of water at the most.

If they set out at 8:00 am, they may have expected to finish in three hours, before temperatures reached 100 degrees.

Either way, I do think they were over confident, since they had probably hiked in the heat before with no problems. Maybe they had brought the baby on a few hikes to get her used to the heat. Still, it would have been dangerous for a young child. I would be surprised if the parents died before the baby.

I think it would have been hard to determine whether there were physical signs on the bodies when they were found, especially if they were out in the open for two days.

Although there is really no best possible outcome, if they all died together from a ground lightning strike, at least they would not have suffered long.

IMO

 

[deadfoot13]

Thanks for the info. I didn't know he was a speedy hiker.
Was he fast on medium-difficult trails or just at an average trails?
Carrying a 1 yo baby with camel back through steep trails seems really like a daunting task for anyone imo.
Maybe he had a great stamina like that of an Olympic athlete.

I believe that the average 1-year old weighs between 20-30 pounds?

I am quite a bit smaller than this man, but I am able to comfortably carry a 35-pound backpack up a mountain, on distance hikes, and even portaging a canoe a short distance. I would think it would have been no issue for this man to carry a child and a water bladder. I've never carried a baby on my back, so don't know if the child's movement would make it more difficult or not.

MOO.

 

[Rocky Mountain Hi]

Even if they died from a heart attack, I think they would still need to investigate further to find the cause, since both lightning strike and heatstroke can result in cardiac arrest.

I don't think they were prepared for staying out very long in the extreme heat, since they only had one badder of water with them. If it was a camelbak, it would only hold 3 liters of water at the most.

If they set out at 8:00 am, they may have expected to finish in three hours, before temperatures reached 100 degrees.

Either way, I do think they were over confident, since they had probably hiked in the heat before with no problems. Maybe they had brought the baby on a few hikes to get her used to the heat. Still, it would have been dangerous for a young child. I would be surprised if the parents died before the baby.

I think it would have been hard to determine whether there were physical signs on the bodies when they were found, especially if they were out in the open for two days.

Although there is really no best possible outcome, if they all died together from a ground lightning strike, at least they would not have suffered long.

IMO

But is the loop they hiked doable in just 3 hours? How long would it take to get down the steep trail to the river carrying a baby and camelback full of water, perhaps relax a little by the river, then hike back up, still carrying the baby, and maybe (?) one of them eventually carrying the dog, on a steep trail with switchbacks? Is 3 hours realistic for that loop and those conditions? I have no idea.

 

[sfinkz]

I'm new and missed that. Well said, I totally agree.

New here also, just for this case, strikes close to home, on a couple of levels. I’ve bushwhacked the South Fork several times and soaked in its pools, never as I recall in summer. Have never been on the Jerseydale ridge, however, so yesterday I planned on detouring up to the Hites Cove Road, after passing it by hundreds of times, to answer some questions I had about the trailheads. As I approached from the main highway, however, I couldn’t do it and passed on through. It felt too macabre.

Earlier I talked with a friend more-ingratiated with the community about my plan. He said ‘once the trails are reopened it will be a circus, everyone and their dog will be poking around.’

 

[Auntie Cipation]

@sfinkz if you happen to know, did the 2018 Ferguson Fire take the trees all the way down to the trail that parallels the South Fork Merced? Or would there still be shade along that stretch of trail?

Thanks if you know.

 

[sfinkz]

@sfinkz if you happen to know, did the 2018 Ferguson Fire take the trees all the way down to the trail that parallels the South Fork Merced? Or would there still be shade along that stretch of trail?

Thanks if you know.

Great question I’ve been curious about without definitive answer. The affected trails were closed for essentially three summers—the entire residency of the family—until last winter due to fire damage. Perhaps not a continuous, lush green belt but definitely spotted with numerous oasis. (Also been curious about temperature and flow of river at annual and historic lows. I’m guessing 62 deg with 1-foot pools). IMHO

 

[JJ Ray]

@sfinkz if you happen to know, did the 2018 Ferguson Fire take the trees all the way down to the trail that parallels the South Fork Merced? Or would there still be shade along that stretch of trail?

Thanks if you know.

Earlier in thread, Yes it did.

 

[MsBetsy]

But is the loop they hiked doable in just 3 hours? How long would it take to get down the steep trail to the river carrying a baby and camelback full of water, perhaps relax a little by the river, then hike back up, still carrying the baby, and maybe (?) one of them eventually carrying the dog, on a steep trail with switchbacks? Is 3 hours realistic for that loop and those conditions? I have no idea.

I think it would take at least 5 hours to hike the whole loop, but I don't think we know for sure where they started or which way they went. LE said they "believe" they started at the other end based on their tracks, and would have had a mile and a half to go.

That was at the beginning of the investigation so we don't know what they have learned since then.

 

[10ofRods]

Thanks for the info. I didn't know he was a speedy hiker.
Was he fast on medium-difficult trails or just at an average trails?
Carrying a 1 yo baby with camel back through steep trails seems really like a daunting task for anyone imo.
Maybe he had a great stamina like that of an Olympic athlete.

Those hiking times are not speedy hike - just slightly faster than the 2 mph the rest of us can do in varied terrain.

I don't think the training that JG did qualifies him as "great stamina" like an Olympian, but I can tell you that even top level marathoners have died of heat in Grand Canyon (and elsewhere).

Carrying 35 lbs is typical for what the average backpacker in Grand Canyon or Yosemite would carry for a multi-day trip, and JG was presumably used to carrying the baby. I could certainly carry my 1 year old on Sierra hikes back in the day, and I would say I was just of average fitness.

Not that fitness protects against heat. We still await the more complete toxicology report - but since they apparently didn't find anything in their water carrier, I'm not optimistic that toxins will be found.

Do we know the capacity of the camel back? I bet it was less than a gallon (8.3 lbs extra in the first part of the hike - almost no water was left when the couple was found). That would have meant he was carrying about 40 lbs, I'd think (heavy for sure). Do we know for sure that he was carrying the water? It would have made more sense for them to have the non-baby carrying person carry the water.