First, my deep sympathies to family, friends and colleagues of Monica, and the SAR teams. I cannot imagine your despair.
I am a lifelong hiker in varied terrain with navigation experience. I'm posting because Monica's disappearance and the many posts since have affected me deeply. I'm posting here, rather than on Reddit, because posters here seem more interested in following the evidence and less prone to wild speculation.
The interest for me posting is the recent speculation that somehow her disappearance off the West Ridge Trail is related to General McCasland's disappearance through their work. This type of speculation is made without evidence or reasoning to demonstrate the plausibility of the claim. It's fairly easy to refute the claim that Monica was abducted, and that's one of my goals. The other goal is to provide some conjecture that I have not seen anyone else make in any thread on any media that better accounts for the events.
Occam's razor applies, as it does to reasoning through any disappearance. The three most common reasons why hikers disappear or have fatal events is motor vehicle accidents, drownings, and falls (with downslope falls having much a higher fatality rate, and hikers often travelling some distance). Attacks by mountain lions are extremely rare, less than one per year. Abductions by human beings are also rare.
We can rule out a motor vehicle accident and a drowning in Monica's case. There was no evidence to indicate an animal attack. From what is widely known about why hikers disappear, we can surmise that Monica at some point fell--and because the trail is on a mountain with a 25-35% grade, she likely fell downslope, not upslope.
But let's for a moment take seriously the claim that she was abducted on the trail. For this to have occurred, two things are necessary. One, at least one abductor was on the trail, stealthily stalking her. Two, the abductor had some rapid means of escaping with Monica to remain undetected--a helicopter with harness, a hidden and clear path down the mountain to the highway, or some means of rappelling off the trail.
When we look at what is known, and think through the events that would have had to take place, it is easy to see how preposterous the abduction claim is. There were no reports of a stalker, anyone acting suspiciously, or anyone following Monica. There were no eye or ear witness reports of a helicopter, no discovery of a previously unknown direct route to the highway, and no evidence that anyone rappelled off the trail, let alone carrying someone. The claim that she was abducted on trail is absurd and frankly offensive to anyone who can reason.
What many posters seem to struggle with is how she so quickly disappeared ontrail. I believe that's one reason there has been resort to assuming abduction. But there is no need to resort to abduction to explain her rapid disappearance and it cannot be supported.
There are plausible scenarios that are worth considering. Some have suggested that she took a wrong turn at the trail bend and went south instead of back north (a navigation error). This is entirely plausible: the trail is reported to be difficult to detect in places. The difficulty with this claim is that SAR rescuers have commented on how quickly the terrain becomes dense and difficult to navigate. The conclusion I've seen among those people who posting is that she would have quickly realized it was the wrong direction.
A second explanation is that she had a sudden fall and that fall carried her off the trail. That is also quite possible, and it's consistent with evidence about why people disappear off trails.
A third possibility that I have not seen anyone mention and is well known to SAR personnel, is that she took a bathroom break offtrail, which led to a fall. This to me is more consistent with the events as we know it, because it also accounts for the distance between her and her hiking partner. I suspect many people aren't thinking through the fact that she's a female traveling with a male guide who isn't necessarily a close friend. Here's my conjecture, and it is only that, based on my own experience and behavior.
I am guessing that she needed a bathroom break and wanted privacy. She intentionally put distance between herself and her hiking companion. When he turned check on her, she smiled and waved to reassure him she was fine. And as soon as he turned back, she immediately went off trail for the break. I have done exactly this. Safe practice is to go offtrail upslope. If you fall, you fall towards the trail and are more likely to be spotted. If you go offtrail downslope and fall or slide, you will continue to slide, be funnelled into chutes, have difficulty climbing up (you are working against gravity), and will decrease the liklihood of being seen by others.
My guess is that she went downslope for her break, because this is consistent with the discovery of her hat (also described as a cap or beanie) 600 feet below the trail. The terrain is slippery: decomposed granite and pine needles. Upslope, gravity will push you into these materials. Downslope, gravity will take you skating along the surface of the materials. That is a key biomechanical difference. A small slip turns into a slide, with no self-arrest possible. You can end up under rocks, in crevasses or gullies, and remain undetectable. If you are injured, which is very likely, with broken bones, sprains, or a head injury, you may be disoriented or unconscious.Even if you can muster some effort, gravity and the biomechanics of the decomposed granite terrain will prevent you from scrambling up the slope. Your only route is down.
Any of these-- a navigation error, a direct fall off the trail onto the downslope, or an intentional bathroom break on the downslope side, can account for her sudden disappearance off the trail and the discovery of her hat downslope. The intentional bathroom break better accounts for the separation from her hiking companion (behind him, not in front of him), if indeed that was intentional.
There is one other piece of evidence I haven't seen widely discussed. On the linked thread, which appears to have info about the companion and searches not posted elsewhere, there is a reference to reports of two hikers hearing a female in anguish or despair around 2.30pm coming from the Twin Peaks Saddle area:
"Has anyone gone back to the timeline posted way earlier in this topic and considered the following item?
2:30pm – two hikers returning from Twin Peaks hear what sounded like a female in anguish or despair
(not calling for help) around Twin Peaks Saddle area (estimated 34.32474, -117.93031)."
Source: Missing hiker (Monica Reza) - Page 3 - EISPIRATEN
Missing hiker (Monica Reza) - Page 3 - EISPIRATEN
I don't know if this report was verified or if that area was searched. But if accurate, and if it was Monica's voice, it supports the scenario that she went downslope: intentionally with an incorrect navigational decision, unintentionally with a direct fall downslope, or intentionally for a bathroom break.
No evidence or reasoning supports any claim that she was abducted. The only commonality between her disappearance and that of General McCasland's disappearance is that they were both hiking. And hikers, particularly in challenging terrain, are at an increased risk of accidents.
My hopes are that someone will spot her clothing so that her family, friends, and colleagues can have certainty about her final location, and that people will stop concocting implausible, magical scenarios to explain her disappearance, because there is no need.
Finally, please keep your hiking partners close to you, use yellow or orange flagging tape if you must go offtrail so that you can navigate back, and always go upslope, not downslope.
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