Canada - Coronavirus COVID-19 #2

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  • #101
What a 16th-century plague survival guide has in common with COVID-19 advice

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent...nlR8GEv3HNkN7ZzIABHshFmMcTUAj9PXOWHFvYRKXKZ_Q

What an interesting article! I would like to see more information detailing how previous plagues were managed. It helps us understand that societies have struggled with pandemic for centuries, that everyone's rights are temporarily restricted, and then life returns to normal. It's a temporary blip not the end of the world.
 
  • #102
This is a great image! How many people looked at etchings like this and thought it was a fashion or political statement to wear head covering during funerals.

upload_2021-2-12_5-44-27.png


link
 
  • #103
  • #104
It's good to see the same story with a slightly different slant. The article you linked does expose the man as bewildered regarding quarantine. What I meant to say is that this man is acting as though he was mistreated regarding quarantine rules and pretending that he didn't understand what was happening to him. He wants to appear as the victim of an overbearing and unfair government that deprived him of his rights. When the CBC didn't have the tone he wanted, he found another news outlet that would give a better victim slant to his complaints.

Every day there's another news article about someone complaining about how the world was changed by pandemic, and how it feels unfair. I don't think there's anyone in the world who doesn't agree that it feels unfair, but there's nothing to be done but to ride it out and hope that the virus fades away after 2 years as it did in 1920.

The man decided that because he travelled for business, rather than vacation, he should be treated differently. He knows that makes no sense, but he's hoping others will sympathise with him.

https://www.consultant360.com/article/consultant360/1918-what-can-we-learn

https://theconversation.com/compare-the-flu-pandemic-of-1918-and-covid-19-with-caution-the-past-is-not-a-prediction-138895

The caution is the past is not a prediction.
But...
The 2nd wave of the Spanish flu began in the fall.
Our 3rd wave is predicted for April?
Perhaps the season, weather wise, will be to our advantage, given Canada's low vaccination rate.

Otto, the reminder that we are a year in, of a possible two years of this requires a readjustment of my attitude.
 
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  • #105
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  • #106
Back to red zone: COVID-19 restrictions to ease in Windsor-Essex


COVID-19: Haliburton, Kawartha Pine Ridge to move to orange after stay-at-home order lifted

"The move to orange also means small social gatherings are once again allowed at private homes, backyards and parks between people from different households. Up to 10 people can gather indoors and up to 25 people outdoors."


North Bay stays in shutdown as Ontario provides relief to other parts of the province - BayToday.ca

Lockdown atleast until Feb 22
"North Bay-Parry Sound joins Peel, Toronto and York regions."
 
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  • #107
https://www.consultant360.com/article/consultant360/1918-what-can-we-learn

https://theconversation.com/compare-the-flu-pandemic-of-1918-and-covid-19-with-caution-the-past-is-not-a-prediction-138895

The caution is the past is not a prediction.
But...
The 2nd wave of the Spanish flu began in the fall.
Our 3rd wave is predicted for April?
Perhaps the season, weather wise, will be to our advantage, given Canada's low vaccination rate.

Otto, the reminder that we are a year in, of a possible two years of this requires a readjustment of my attitude.

When this first started in March last year, I suspect many hoped and expected that it would be gone in the Summer. Numbers went down during the Summer, but history tells us that there's a second wave. I read an article from 10 years ago suggesting that the 1918 second wave was more deadly because of variants. Third wave was less deadly. I think we'll be lucky if this is done in 2 years. Don't mean to be pessimistic, but ...

"London never really caught a break after the Black Death. The plague resurfaced roughly every 10 years from 1348 to 1665—40 outbreaks in just over 300 years. And with each new plague epidemic, 20 percent of the men, women and children living in the British capital were killed."
How 5 of History’s Worst Pandemics Finally Ended
 
  • #108
This is just a clip of a very good documentary, but it is available on netflix.

''By the dawn of the 19th century, tuberculosis had killed one in seven of all people that had ever lived. Doctors believed it was hereditary, but had begun to observe that fresh air and outdoor living could sometimes change the course of the illness. Physician and TB patient Edward Trudeau was convinced the clean mountain air was like medicine for the lungs. Learn more about the documentary, THE FORGOTTEN PLAGUE, including where to watch the full film: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexper...''
 
  • #109
One expert's view of the virus is that mutations will continue for 10 years, although that does not mean it will be deadly for that length of time. She expects the more transmissible and more deadly variant to going to sweep the world.

In my opinion, that means serious lockdown will happen in mid to late March.

"Prof Sharon Peacock told the BBC's Newscast podcast the new variant has "swept the country" and "it's going to sweep the world, in all probability".

She said her team's work sequencing variants of the virus could be required for at least 10 years.

The Kent variant has already been detected in more than 50 countries.

It was first detected in September 2020 in south-east England and its rapid spread over the following months was cited as the reason for the introduction of new lockdown rules across the UK in January.

She added: "Once we get on top of [the virus] or it mutates itself out of being virulent - causing disease - then we can stop worrying about it. But I think, looking in the future, we're going to be doing this for years. We're still going to be doing this 10 years down the line, in my view."

She explained this was not because she thought the pandemic would go on for 10 years, but she believed they would be sequencing new variants for that length of time."
Covid-19: Kent virus variant 'on course to sweep world'
 
  • #110
It's good to see the same story with a slightly different slant. The article you linked does expose the man as bewildered regarding quarantine. What I meant to say is that this man is acting as though he was mistreated regarding quarantine rules and pretending that he didn't understand what was happening to him. He wants to appear as the victim of an overbearing and unfair government that deprived him of his rights. When the CBC didn't have the tone he wanted, he found another news outlet that would give a better victim slant to his complaints.

Every day there's another news article about someone complaining about how the world was changed by pandemic, and how it feels unfair. I don't think there's anyone in the world who doesn't agree that it feels unfair, but there's nothing to be done but to ride it out and hope that the virus fades away after 2 years as it did in 1920.

The man decided that because he travelled for business, rather than vacation, he should be treated differently. He knows that makes no sense, but he's hoping others will sympathise with him.

yep I agree with you
 
  • #111
  • #112
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  • #113
Reminder:
Valentine's Day on Sunday, Feb 14
Family Day, Monday Feb 15,
And possible end to Lockdown on 16th? for some.

Shoot, forgot about St. Patrick's Day, on Wednesday Feb. 17.
 
  • #114
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  • #116

Great article. I like what Caroline Colijn says about "waves" and completely agree with her. We have not seen waves so far, but rather increase and decrease in numbers based on the lockdown cycles.

I do think that March 2020 was the first wave. I do think that the second wave is associated with new variants (same as 1918), and that we'll see the variants sweep throughout Canada by March.

I do think that governments have tried to define waves based on the cycle of increase/decrease in case numbers related to lockdown - which is silly.

If the first wave was relatively mild - which it was in terms of death to vulnerable populations, and the second wave is more deadly perhaps to non-vulnerable populations, and a third wave in the Fall of 2021 is less deadly, then the pattern is similar to 1918. The difference is in terms of age groups. The 1918 virus first wave was more deadly to young people in their prime, but that was influenced by WW1 soldiers' lifestyle.

The question that remains unanswered is whether anything could be done to prevent the emergence of new variants in individual countries - whether the variants are imported, or whether the virus mutates in each country regardless of travel. During the first wave, there were a number of variants, but there was no concern because none was worse than another. That is no longer true. Even the experts were guessing:

March 2020

"While researchers caution they're only seeing the tip of the iceberg, the tiny differences between the virus strains suggest shelter-in-place orders are working in some areas and that no one strain of the virus is more deadly than another. They also say it does not appear the strains will grow more lethal as they evolve.

“The virus mutates so slowly that the virus strains are fundamentally very similar to each other,” said Charles Chiu, a professor of medicine and infectious disease at the University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine."​

upload_2021-2-13_12-39-44.png


Coronavirus: How scientists are tracking 8 strains of SARS-CoV-2 virus
 
  • #117
I suppose we better brace ourselves for the next wave, because it doesn't seem like it can be stopped. Maybe now is a good time to stock up on dry/canned goods, frozen foods and other necessities - minus a room full of toilet paper.

Yesterday, at the grocery store, the person cleaning the self-checkout station told me that no staff had been sick so she didn't think I should be concerned. It struck me as odd that she's only thinking about sick staff whereas I'm thinking about sick customers. We have to be careful about letting others decide our risk level.

"That variant, also known as B117, is estimated to be at least 50 per cent more transmissible and potentially more deadly and led to strict lockdowns in countries like Denmark, Ireland and the U.K., where it quickly became a dominant strain.

Alberta, which already has 149 cases of B117 and seven cases of the variant first identified in South Africa, also decided to reopen restaurants, bars and gyms this week despite the rapid rise in variant cases.

"It's kind of like we're playing chicken with COVID, which never struck me as being a great idea," said Dr. Lynora Saxinger, an infectious diseases physician and an associate professor at the University of Alberta faculty of medicine in Edmonton.
...

"It's pretty obvious that if we just went back to normal there would be a third wave and it would be absolutely brutal."
...

"We know that if not controlled, it becomes a predominant strain within weeks of first appearance," said Dr. Janice Fitzgerald, the province's chief medical officer of health.
...

But at the federal level, dire warnings about reopening amid the spread of variants seems to conflict with what's happening on the ground.

"Resurgence will happen really fast, so this is the time to be vigilant against the variants," Canada's Chief Public Health officer Dr. Theresa Tam said during a press conference Friday. "
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/variants-lifting-restrictions-second-opinion-1.5912760
 
  • #118
dbm already posted
 
  • #119
  • #120
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