Identified! CO - Gunnison Nat’l Forest, 3 Decomposed Bodies, long term camping near Gold Creek Campground, July 2023 - Rebecca & Christine Vance & Boy, 14

[RedHaus]

<modsnip: quoted post was removed> So as I mentioned I'd tried to do ^^^, here are some interesting 'lists' of CO fugitives that may have sought refuge in the wildnerness. The MP list in CO is just massive and it’s hard to try to conjoin three (or more people, if it was foul play).

It's also hard to consider if 3+ fugitives in CO would be together and / or when specifically they went on the lam. But my spidey sense wonders if the Gunnison trio aren't MP's per se, but people that intentionally did not want to be found. If so, perhaps they had lived in that camp for quite some time, but this past brutal winter or some poisonous food did them in.

TRIGGER WARNING, THESE ARE NOT FRIENDLY FACES

1. Pikes Peak Area Crime Stoppers - Gunnison is about 160 miles West of Pikes Peak.
2. CrimeWatch Most Wanted, CO
3. FBI, Denver Field Office Most Wanted

4. From the FBI list, I tried filtering by year to find 'accomplices'. The best I came up with are these two from 2014: "Felix and his common-law wife, Ashley Cynthia Montalvo, may have fled to Arizona or Mexico with their two young boys..."

• ASHLEY CYNTHIA MONTALVO - federal warrant issued 2/15/2013
• ULISES OMAR FELIX - federal warrant issued 2/15/2013

One's imagination could run rampant as to how 4 may have become 3 people hiding out...

This may be absolutely nothing, but thought I'd check out this angle.

 

[SherlockKittyCat]

According to the DM article, CO doesn't seem to be a cause in this instance. Freezing to death or starvation appear to be primary causes that they are looking into. They also said that due to decomp, autopsies will take about 3 weeks to perform.

 

[airportwoman]

Another head scratcher. Perhaps they were caught in extreme cold or ran out of food and one died first. The others put him outside and returned to the tent where they later died.
Just looking for a scenario that satisfies the known facts while not falling into the realm of a TV crime movie.
I doubt there was identification on them or LE wouldn’t have specifically been described as “working to identify“them, just withheld names until family was notified.

They may have had ID in the tent, or their car, but not on their persons. If even any two of them were similar height, weight, gender, and age, IDing them could be a challenge.

 

[airportwoman]

According to the DM article, CO doesn't seem to be a cause in this instance. Freezing to death or starvation appear to be primary causes that they are looking into. They also said that due to decomp, autopsies will take about 3 weeks to perform.

I'm sure they will also do tox screens, and those can take a while.

 

[RedHaus]

An article from the Denver Gazette that provides a bit more information...

"Gunnison County Undersheriff Josh Ashe described the campsite where the bodies were found as particularly developed... could have been being used for long-term off-grid living..."

"...According to [Gunnison County Coroner] Barnes, it appears as if the three had started a stint of camping in mid-to-late July of 2022. Evidence at the site suggested that the campers had plans to live at the spot permanently..."

So perhaps we're looking for people who 'disappeared' in that time frame. And I wonder if there were more than three people? What if there were others who had forraged off to get help, but died far off any trail?

 

[RedHaus]

I also offered to look at historical weather patterns to see what might have affected the campers' well being.

Temperatures in Gunnison, CO from Weather Underground. All temps below in Fahrenheit.

It was a VERY COLD winter, starting as early as December

1. 11/30/2022 was a brutal cold snap with an average of 13 degrees and a low of -8, but just for one day.
2. 12/15 to 12/20/2022 there was a sustained deep cold with single digit average temps and lows between -4 and -14.
3. In January 2023 the average temperature for the month was 11 degrees; in Feburary 2023 the average was 8 degrees.

Snowfall in Gunnison, CO from Weather Spark

Snow does not seem to have been an issue for these campers, generally speaking, as it was a light snow fall winter until the spring months. Late December had the most snow, with 5 or less inches a day over a few days.

Note: Most weather services say that, on average, the amount of snow is 10 times the rainfall volume, that is, 1 inch of rain is equivalent to 10 inches of snowfall. If the snow is dense and molecules are tightly packed, then the ratio is 1:8. Source

Given these data, I suspect the first long deep cold snap in mid-December may have doomed these folks if they were not prepared for that type of cold. But why didn't they retreat to civilization if there was no snow at that time?

Edited to clarify last statements

 

[LadyL]

I can't find a thread here for three missing LDS boys. If there is one, could someone please post the link?

How sad - both cases.

I created a thread for them: UT - Denver Barlow, 15, Manden Barlow, 14, and Truson Barlow, 12 missing after travelling to visit their father - Oct.29/2022

I can't find anything more recent about them being missing. Seems odd as it's very shocking for three brothers to be missing together.

 

[Magnum P.E.]

They may have had ID in the tent, or their car, but not on their persons. If even any two of them were similar height, weight, gender, and age, IDing them could be a challenge.

They had a car?

 

[Magnum P.E.]

I also offered to look at historical weather patterns to see what might have affected the campers' well being.

Temperatures in Gunnison, CO from Weather Underground. All temps below in Fahrenheit.

It was a VERY COLD winter, starting as early as December

1. 11/30/2022 was a brutal cold snap with an average of 13 degrees and a low of -8, but just for one day.
2. 12/15 to 12/20/2022 there was a sustained deep cold with single digit average temps and lows between -4 and -14.
3. In January 2023 the average temperature for the month was 11 degrees; in Feburary 2023 the average was 8 degrees.

Snowfall in Gunnison, CO from Weather Spark

Snow does not seem to have been an issue for these campers, generally speaking, as it was a light snow fall winter until the spring months. Late December had the most snow, with 5 or less inches a day over a few days.
View attachment 434762
Note: Most weather services say that, on average, the amount of snow is 10 times the rainfall volume, that is, 1 inch of rain is equivalent to 10 inches of snowfall. If the snow is dense and molecules are tightly packed, then the ratio is 1:8. Source

Given these data, I suspect the first long deep cold snap in mid-December may have doomed these folks if they were not prepared for that type of cold. But why didn't they retreat to civilization if there was no snow at that time?

Edited to clarify last statements

Thanks Red. So, snowed in was not probable, nor was carbon monoxide. I would imagine that the autopsy could estimate remaining body fat levels, even in an advanced state of decomposition. If they starved, as I suspect, they will be able to say that with some degree of certainty.
i agree that it is a mystery as to why they stayed that long when they could have walked out before it got to that point. We may only be able to speculate as to their motives.
A diary would be nice to have.

 

[303gmf]

They had a car?

Absolutely no word on any abandoned vehicle in the area, a bit too remote for anything other than small off-road type if so
Hiked in is my guess

 

[303gmf]

Absolutely no word on any abandoned vehicle in the area, a bit too remote for anything other than small off-road type if so
Hiked in is my guess

Replying to myself to add after looking up camp site:
No motorized vehicles allowed

 

[RedHaus]

Replying to myself to add after looking up camp site:
No motorized vehicles allowed

Below is a Google Earth Pro satellite image of the Gold Creek campground from 10/2/2019. In this image there clearly is a truck / SUV (possibly a park ranger) and I have put check marks next to what I think are the six campsites.

That said, I agree the Forest Service description of the campground states: "No mechanized or motorized vehicles are permitted within its boundaries." But it also states "This campground provides access to hiking, mountain biking, horseback riding, fishing and four-wheel driving". So there seems to be a conflict of information. Or perhaps one can have a motorized vehicle but just not within the small campground space itself (so a parking area down the road??).

Next I will look at accessibility, because at first glance it looks like one could just drive up to this campground.

 

[RedHaus]

OK, let me dispell anyone's notion that this is a remote campground only accessible by hiking. Yes, it is in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains, but you can drive a car right to the campground, or walk, or bike or ATV from two nearby towns.

1) Ohio City is 6.9 miles from Gold Creek Campground, a straight shot up Route 771 - 18 minute drive, 2.5 hour hike.
2) Pitkin is a 10.4 mile / 41 minute drive from Gold Creak Campground, or a 7.6 /3 hour hike via HOV trails.

Please see images below for mapping / sat pic references.

So I go back to my question from last night... If they were hungry or had early hypothermia symptoms, why didn't they just walk out 2.5 or 3 hours to civilization? If they had a truck / car / ATV parked somewhere, even easier.

This is a mystery to me... and now I'm back to wondering about accidental ODs (Fentanyl) or food or CO poisoning....

 

[ch_13]

Snowfall in Gunnison, CO from Weather Spark

Snow does not seem to have been an issue for these campers, generally speaking, as it was a light snow fall winter until the spring months. Late December had the most snow, with 5 or less inches a day over a few days.

This snowfall data is for the town of Gunnison which is at 7,000 feet. But their campground would have been at over 10,000 feet. Altitude governs snowfall amounts in the Rockies and that 3K feet makes all the difference.

To give you some idea, the town of Leadville which is also at over 10K feet averages something like 120 inches of snow per year. And once it starts snowing, little of it will melt until summer as it just doesn't warm up enough.

OK, let me dispell anyone's notion that this is a remote campground only accessible by hiking. Yes, it is in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains, but you can drive a car right to the campground, or walk, or bike or ATV from two nearby towns.

I don't think they were actually at the developed campsite. Most of the articles describe them as being "near" Gold Creek Campground. The ABC News article says that they were " in a remote wooded area where hikers typically wouldn't pass by."

I suspect their camp was actually at one of the alpine lakes or small creeks that dot the area and would provide them a water source. Maybe a 1/2 mile or more away from the road.

So I go back to my question from last night... If they were hungry or had early hypothermia symptoms, why didn't they just walk out 2.5 or 3 hours to civilization? If they had a truck / car / ATV parked somewhere, even easier.

If they did find themselves up in the mountains after a heavy snow, it may have been just impossible to walk anywhere. To move in deep snow you need the right equipment: snowshoes or skis. Otherwise you will posthole. What that means is that every step you take, you fall into the snow up to your waist. It's an effort just to walk a hundred yards. Plus it gets into your boots and can bring on frostbite and hypothermia.

If they weren't properly equipped and already suffering from malnourishment they could have easily found themselves trapped.

 

[ch_13]

I haven't seen this mentioned before. From the NY Times article:

The sheriff’s office has a “vague idea” of who the victims might be, but it is awaiting an autopsy report before it can make a determination.

Three Decomposed Bodies Found in Colorado Campsite

Law enforcement officials said the campers might have been there since last year.

www.nytimes.com

I don't quite know what the sheriff means by 'vague idea', but it suggests that they aren't completely in the dark here.

 

[RedHaus]

And some more nuggets of information here from the Colorado Sun.

• ..."The hiker found one body... about 1,000 feet from a campsite near the Gold Creek Campground...
• ...[Gunnison County Sheriff Adam] Murdie described the site as ...not visible from the dirt county Forest Service road
• ... bodies were discovered in a dark patch of timber...
• ... bodies were impossible to identify, Murdie said, estimating they may have been at the campsite since the fall...
• ...Investigators found a blue tent, empty food cans and a lean-to shelter at the campsite, Murdie said...
• ...hiker saw the camp... before seeing one of the bodies on the ground in front of the tent, Murdie said."

So taking these bits at face value, it suggests to me a lot of things that I will keep zipped until we know more from LE.

 

[RedHaus]

Location of Deceased Campers?

I digested the LE / MSM information we have so far, to identify where the three campers were found. The Colorado Sun stated the trio were essentially together, 1000 feet from a Gold Creek campsite (my interpretation of a confusing statement). And the campsite was in a dark patch of timber not visible from the dirt county forest road.

I used Google Earth Pro to draw a 1000 foot radius around the Gold Creek campground. I then tried to dentify where LE was staged for their recovery operations on 7/10 per the CBS photos in the 7/13 DM article. I drew a teal circle around what I perceive to be dense patches of woods along that radius - the possible locations of the campers, IMO.

I welcome any other interpolations of my analysis here. Click on the image to blow it up.

p.s. Might the camper truck near the LE recovery vehicles (top left image) belong to the hiker that made discovery?

 

[RedHaus]

And... while the water sources available near Gold Creek Campground aren't easily visible in Sat images because of the dense forest, this topographic map, IMO, confirms that the area I drew in Teal in my last post, would have water.

There are two creeks that converge east of the campground along with several little lakes. Ideal for a long term camp?

 

[RedHaus]

This snowfall data is for the town of Gunnison which is at 7,000 feet. But their campground would have been at over 10,000 feet. Altitude governs snowfall amounts in the Rockies and that 3K feet makes all the difference.

RSBM

Thank you @ch_13. I couldn't agree more with you. Having lived in the Colorado foothills at about 7K feet way back when, I understand very well the difference in weather between elevations of 5K, 7K, 10K, 14K, etc.

So I took another stab at my snowfall analysis using Crested Butte, which has an elevation of 8,909 feet compared to Gold Creek Campground's elevation of 9,990 feet; and just 26.4 miles as a crow flies to Gold Creek Campground*.

The results are vastly different than my earlier results. So my apologies for misleading anyone. The months of Nov and Dec appear to have been a normal snow fall / pack (2-2.5 feet), but Jan - Apr the snowfall was far above average.

THERE WAS LIKELY A LOT OF SNOW PACK AT THE GOLD CREEK CAMPGROUND

And if the campers were not prepared with equipment to forage or evacuate - cross country skiis, snow shoes, snowmobile, etc., they would have been trapped. Without adequate food they certainly could have starved to death.

* measured via Google Earth Pro

 

[ch_13]

I digested the LE / MSM information we have so far, to identify where the three campers were found. The Colorado Sun stated the trio were essentially together, 1000 feet from a Gold Creek campsite (my interpretation of a confusing statement). And the campsite was in a dark patch of timber not visible from the dirt county forest road.
I used Google Earth Pro to draw a 1000 foot radius around the Gold Creek campground...

I read the LE statement a little differently.

• ..."The hiker found one body... about 1,000 feet from a campsite near the Gold Creek Campground...

I interpreted the above statement to mean that the three individuals set up a camp somewhere nearby the Gold Creek Campground. Then the first body was found approximately 1,000 feet from the campsite that they set up.

I think the Gold Creek Campground gets mentioned because it was the closest location that the authorities could get a vehicle. The remaining ground to the actual campsite would need to be covered on foot, but it wouldn't necessarily be within 1,000 feet. If the three campers wanted to keep away from prying eyes, they’d probably situate it somewhat farther away than that.

But I agree that the statement was rather confusing.