Wow, this is such a sad and strange case. I hope Joe is found one day.
While the thought of foul play is interesting (the bizarre lack of timeline and lack of route info, the wonder about what each person was busy doing at what moment, the delay in reporting to LE, and the search of a lake MILES away through very rough terrain when there are so many other lakes between the ranch and the one that was searched, and the so many things that come to mind that could involve foul play among the 3), I tend to believe that Joe was overcome with altitude sickness, fell, became injured or passed out, and is not far from where he fell.
We have a lot of people go missing in the mountains. People search and search and then SAR is called off. Eventually bodies are discovered the next season exactly where SAR efforts were done. We all tend to think that a SAR is easily done, but unless youve walked through a pine forest in CO, I dont think you could understand what it is like. Whenever were driving through the mountains I always wonder how many people are out there lost, waiting to be found (and my mind always worries that bodies have been dumped just out of my sight). It is thick with pine trees, undergrowth, some Aspens, rocks, and you cannot see through it for more than 5-10 yards. I would hate to try and search a pine forest because it simply cannot all be seen. If Joe decided to venture away from the path (disoriented or not), he easily could have headed towards the rock formation just north of the ranch and then found himself not only gaining altitude, but in danger of falling or getting caught up somewhere.
I find it very telling when an outsider insists that because a person could perform in THEIR mountains back home, then they would be fine in OUR mountains. This is why so many people become ill so quickly in Colorado. It happened to my husband when he arrived in CO. He and his friends took their Jeeps up to the Continental Divide on their first weekend looking for rock climbing, 4-wheeling, and camping after only being in Colorado for 48 hours! 6,800 feet is NOT 9,000 feet. Shoot, I even worry about my own kids when we head up for a weekend away. At the first sign of sickness, we pack up and leave. Altitude is no joke. I dont think 17-18 year olds out on their own on a trip of a lifetime would have heeded these warnings. Teenage boys, for the most part, believe they are infallible.
We must remember one thing; Joe is a young guy. Yes he is super athletic and therefore more likely to survive elements and those things physical in nature, but from what I know, 19 year old guys are typically pretty sure of themselves. These guys were on their way back from a trip of a lifetime, probably one of their first alone and without an adult. Theyve come this far, they feel great about it, everything is awesome. They dont want to admit that they made bad decisions (hello, running in just shorts and no shirt at 4:30pm in the mountains?!). For me, being a CO native, I know that weather changes on a dime in the mountains. Once the sun dips behind the peak in the mountains it gets chilly right away, even in the summer. But I dont know if Joe would know that (I feel very strongly that if he did, he would have at least had a t-shirt on because 5:30pm is when the sun is starting to set and you would definitely be shaded a lot by trees). I feel this was simply a 19 year olds reasoning and not thinking ahead (like a 19 year old does). Perhaps Joes friends thought it wasnt a big deal, but surely the staff and Joes family at the ranch should have thought it was a big deal that he was missing 30+ minutes after he said he would return. These people know the conditions of the mountain. I think it would be safe at that point to assume he fell and became injured or he could have even encountered wildlife. I assume the ranch put out all of its employees to search, but after an hour or two, you call the police. I think at the latest they should have called around 7:30pm before it was too dark to see. I read in a FB comment somewhere that a woman camping heard and saw flashlights and people calling for Joe, she said they wondered the next morning if they had ever found him. They REALLY didnt think they could use LEO?! All they had were flashlights? Come on now. SAR units could have been deployed that same night.
Elk, lions, and bears are in the area and true it is a possibility he came across something. Maybe he saw something and then ran from it taking him into the woods, that could explain the lack of blood and drag marks, but youd think they would have found remains eventually (a dog was attacked by a lion in Northern CO last week and it left a gruesome mess. No way could Joe have been attacked without a trace of blood).
In regards to why the family didnt stay at the Ranch while in CO searching; I am sure that in a days notice over a weekend at the end of summer, the ranch was already booked with guests. How do you tell dozens of travelers that they cannot stay after theyve driven many hours to stay? That part makes sense to me. They just didnt have room.
It has been questioned whether Joe would stick out in this area
around the Ranch? No. Not at all. Ive checked their rates and it is NOT cheap to stay there ($2,500 per person for a week
yikes!). I vision upper-middle class to upper class families out on vacation. Joe wouldnt stick out THERE. Now in town, in Antonito, yes, he would stick out very much, but this is not where he was. I HATE thinking that some person driving through saw him and had a machismo moment, but I guess anything is possible.
This was stated by ceci upthread quite a bit (post # 528): Colorado Gang Unit says Kings De Monte Hispanic gang uses the area for dropping and hiding meth and heroin. Hwy 285 is a known drug route. While this may be, HWY 285 is WAY to the east of the ranch. He would have had to run quite a distance to get near there.
On the drugs in Colorado note
I do believe a lot of people have the wrong impression about the legalization of marijuana in Colorado. It has not made our state suddenly a dangerous one. If Joe and his friends had wanted to find pot (and lets just face it, if they were the type to want pot, they probably found it before the left TN), they would have tried getting some in a more legal way than meeting drug lords on the side of the road.
So basically I think that Joe became too injured to return or maybe tripped and hit his head on a rock and simply has not been found. It makes the most amount of sense to me seeing that there have been many hikers and skiers never found in their SARs but then found later. My mind sometimes wanders back to foul play (could somebody Joe knew have driven up to him during his run and told him to get in and lets go see this cool thing I saw? Maybe
), but most likely he passed away due to exposure after injury.
Everything here is IMOO, of course