CO CO - Kelsey Berreth, 29, Woodland Park, Teller County, 22 Nov 2018 - #11

[Bill Carson]

I'm pretty sure people think it's less than 1% because of the particular happenings of the case.

such as her employer being texted

See, the employer being texted tends to make me believe that KB sent that text. (Occam, and all that.) I know that there are a thousand theories of how the texts could have been sent from Idaho by someone else, but AFAIK there's not a shred of evidence that we are privy to that would support any of those theories. (e.g., nobody has suggested that PF wasn't near home over that weekend or the following week)

 

[Charlot123]

Yes, "only."

It seems like everyone who has posted their percentages of likely causes for KB's disappearance have listed the odds of KB being abducted by a stranger or acquaintance at less than a 1% chance, but the odds are actually much, much higher than that, statistically speaking.

The texts can't be explained, unless she is held captive somewhere. I would not discount someone knowing her, "an acquaintance", though.

I mean, PF's behavior is suspicious, but we have to be fair, if so far he has not been named even a POI, I can't say, I am positive it is him, although there are red flags. But there is not much to sleuths given the deafening silence.

 

[Scoutce]

I keep thinking of the 15 month old child. Last Christmas, she was 6 months old and didn’t participate so much in Christmas festivities. In one week she will have Christmas w/o her mother. She’s old enough now to really enjoy festivities. No mother voluntarily misses that. MOO

*3 months old last Christmas

 

[MassGuy]

Yes, "only."

It seems like everyone who has posted their percentages of likely causes for KB's disappearance have listed the odds of KB being abducted by a stranger or acquaintance at less than a 1% chance, but the odds are actually much, much higher than that, statistically speaking.

Statistically, certainly.

With the facts here, limited as they are, I cannot fathom a stranger abduction.

The text messages and ping make it highly unlikely.

But having the one guy who would be the natural focus of the investigation, all but point the finger at himself by failing to report her missing, and making absolutely no effort to find her.....That’s some luck.

Too much luck.

It ain’t luck.

 

[haven71]

Sorry to quote myself, but this is very curious. This is what KKTV reported earlier:

About eight investigators with the FBI and CBI were at the home. They were still on scene at 4:30 p.m. They were carrying items into the home but an 11 News reporter on scene for hours didn't see them carrying anything out.
FBI searches missing Woodland Park mom's home on Wednesday

Hoping to see an update to the article.
MOO

But on KKTV news at 10 it was reported 3 boxes were carried out, one of which was sealed with red tape.

 

[Deleted member 718]

delete

 

[Gardener1850]

I wonder who drove the blue truck.

I think that is PF's other truck. We saw a blue truck in the drone photo showing where LE had dug on the property.

 

[alucardsdream]

The texts can't be explained, unless she is held captive somewhere. I would not discount someone knowing her, "an acquaintance", though.

Plus, if KB was the one sending the texts to buy time or whatever, I think she would have sent one to her mother. She must have known that if she was gone for too long her mom would get worried. MOO.

 

[Bill Carson]

But of the 16% of women murdered by strangers, how many of them were actually abducted? They could be murdered in their own home by a stranger. They don't all disappear.

Now now.... we websleuths of all people should be familiar with many examples of stranger/acquaintance abduction.

And then there is also the possibility that KB left Woodland Park on her own (no, I don't know how she got to Idaho).

But the point is that we are so hyper-focused on finding evidence to convict PF that we aren't even considering other possibilities. It seems to me that since the information from LE is trickling out so slowly that perhaps we could use some time to consider other scenarios, no matter how unlikely they may seem at first blush.

 

[Jennifer17]

But of the 16% of women .murdered by strangers, how many of them were actually abducted? They could be murdered in their own home by a stranger. They don't all disappear.

Or in an armed robbery or in the middle of a gang shootout.

 

[Esma]

I've been leaning towards the opposite. She just can't bring herself to commit and perhaps wants to move back to her prior city and job. In most states the unmarried father would need to file for a court order for visitation. She could file for support. It was either money motivated or the gall of losing his only heir.
That's where my imagination has led me. I also believe her mom knew what the deal was and is following instruction to keep everything kosher for the media.

I think it’s possible she wanted to become a family with him and he is stalling and distancing. The baby is 14 months old. She is very religious and close to family, yet she stays and he still lives with his mother? It may have progressed to a perceived stalemate and forced ultimatum by her which led to this.

 

[Gardener1850]

Just the part where the waterfall is is the Devil's Washbowl. Here's a picture of the Gorge looking the other way.

Wow! Okay, who is going there to go search for KB's cellphone? Any volunteers?

 

[PommyMommy]

But on KKTV news at 10 it was reported 3 boxes were carried out, one of which was sealed with red tape.

Yes, that's what I'm saying - the same station stated in their article that they didn't see them carry anything out, lol!

Here's the article again: FBI searches missing Woodland Park mom's home on Wednesday
MOO

 

[GoJacks]

I watched the dudes (wpu) little live thing. the neighbor said PF blocked her (the neighbors) driveway. but she also made it seem like it wasn't that big of deal because he was just picking up the kid and leaving usually?

also she said she was used to him driving an older blue truck (probably the one you could see in the drone footage) and the red truck had to be newer-ish

 

[Bill Carson]

the use of the word "only" in reference to 55% of murdered women being killed by an intimate partner is dismissive to the issue of domestic violence and homicide. you may have meant it in reference to the percentage of risk of homicide by partner in this case, but it came across as dismissive.

I apologize if it came across as dismissive. Tone and context can very hard to discern in short written messages.

I meant "only" 55% killed by current and former partners to mean that, although the number is the highest cause of death statistically speaking, it wasn't the sole cause of death of murdered women, as it seems like we have been treating it. MOO

 

[moonlessnight]

many disabilities are invisible. many would not preclude one from caring for a baby. plenty of people with disabilities work, care for children, etc.

And I took the monocle to the published photos of house exterior, looking for handicap access, deck ramp, etc. deemed necessary for one that struggles to walk and I really didn't see anything like that. Just sayin...

MOO

 

[moonlessnight]

thank you.

I apologize if it came across as dismissive. Tone and context can very hard to discern in short written messages.

I meant "only" 55% killed by current and former partners to mean that, although the number is the highest cause of death statistically speaking, it wasn't the sole cause of death of murdered women, as it seems like we have been treating it. MOO

 

[alucardsdream]

Wow! Okay, who is going there to go search for KB's cellphone? Any volunteers?

I once lost my work iPhone for a week because my stupid dog buried it under all her toys and the battery was dead so I couldn't call it. I'd be happy to go look for KB's...if it has a GPS activated, a strobe light, and is playing NIN songs at top volume.

Seriously, though, if someone threw her phone there, it would take a miracle to find it.

 

[haven71]

Yes, that's what I'm saying - the same station wrote in their article that they didn't see them carry anything out, lol!

Here's the article again: FBI searches missing Woodland Park mom's home on Wednesday
MOO

I think that was an article from early in the day. They hadn’t carried the stuff out yet.

JMO

 

[Jennifer17]

I apologize if it came across as dismissive. Tone and context can very hard to discern in short written messages.

I meant "only" 55% killed by current and former partners to mean that, although the number is the highest cause of death statistically speaking, it wasn't the sole cause of death of murdered women, as it seems like we have been treating it. MOO

No one has been treating it like that, but coupled with the high statistical possibility and his failure to reporting her missing and his seeming disinterest in finding her, to me takes it out of the possibility range, into the probability range.