Any theory that attempts to explain what happened to Kelsey has to account for the ping from her phone in Gooding ID. If this were a Hitchcock film that ping would be the plot twist that the entire story hinged on.
If that ping did not exist then it would be simpler to theorize reasons for her absence. But her phone appearing briefly 800 miles and 3 days after her last confirmed sighting creates a specific fact that needs to fit into any accurate theory. Not just fit in, but IMHO explaining that ping explains the entire story.
The ping from Gooding fits well with the early Facebook post from her Aunt that
"She broke up with her ex on Thanksgiving, he said she dropped off the baby and was heading to Soap Lake Washington to visit.” Taken at face value that statement means it was PF who reported to her family that she was heading to Soap Lake. I believe that the Aunt later retracted or deleted that Facebook post.
Gooding is roughly 60% of the way between Woodland Park and Soap Lake. Gooding is a completely plausible location for her phone to ping if she was indeed traveling to Soap Lake. It is also a completely plausible location for her phone to ping if someone wants to create the illusion she was traveling to Soap Lake.
How can that ping be explained?
KB has phone (#1): Maybe Kelsey did indeed decide spontaneously to head to Washington without giving her family advance notice. PF's story about her leaving is basically true. Whatever the cause of her disappearance therefore is something unexpected that happens along the way. This theory raises a set of questions that are without answers:
- Her known vehicles are accounted for so how is she traveling?
- Why leave child her child behind?
- Why doesn't she tell her family she is coming either at the onset of travel or when sending the two text messages?
KB has phone (#2): Maybe Kelsey was indeed heading west but not to Washington. She tells PF that Soap Lake is her destination to conceal some truth from him, perhaps even that she willingly wants to disappear. This has the same problems as the above theory plus creates a new mystery around her true intent.
PF has phone: Some here believe that PF must be behind KB's disappearance. An obvious extension of this belief is that PF must be responsible for creating the ping, likely as a red herring to distract from the truth. The question therefore is could he have transported her phone to Gooding and arrived back in Florissant while producing an alibi for his location and maintaining care for the child in his custody? Assuming no stops it is roughly 24 hours of round-trip driving from his home to Gooding and back. So questions that come from this theory are:
- Could he have driven 1600 miles round-trip, pay cash along the way for any need gas or food, and not be remembered or be caught on video?
- What alibi has he produced for his time from the 22nd to the 26th and who corroborates that alibi?
Other theories I consider less likely:
PF accomplice has phone: This suggests a conspiracy between PF and some other party to create this ping, wherein PF stays home and cares for his daughter while his accomplice (for motivation unknown) transports the phone to Gooding. But who then is this co-conspirator to what now seems a complex premeditated criminal conspiracy?
A robo-phone: Several other posters here have theorized various scenarios of apps that send time-delayed texts, ways of turning on a phone remotely, shipping the phone in a package, putting the phone on a west-bound truck, etc. These all seem like very implausible Rube Goldberg solutions to me, which involve many possible risks that the message would not be sent at all. If creating a ping from Southern Idaho was critical to someone attempting to conceal the truth then taking the phone there personally or using an accomplice seem far more reliable.
All five of the above theories imply either that Kelsey told PF she was heading to Soap Lake or that PF invented the story that Kelsey was heading to Soap Lake. There is, however, another possibility.
An abductor has her phone (and possibly KB): PF may indeed have received a message stating that Kelsey was heading to Soap Lake, but it was sent by an abductor who knew enough about KB and her work and relationship with PF to craft messages that would avert suspicions for several days.
I'm sure there are some known facts that don't fit one or more of the above theories and can be used to rule some of them out. But I strongly believe that once the ping from Gooding is understood, then the rest of the story will fall into place.
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