Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #10

[jjenny]

Thanks. Yep. So Italy and China have a somewhat higher mortality rate. Wonder why that is? But not the US and other 1st world countries. :::shrug::: Maybe thatt will change. Anyway, I'm definitely not even slightly concerned about it. I'm much more concerned about what the reaction is in the stock market. If I'm not gonna die from it, I'd like to keep as much of my retirement as possible! lol

Higher than what? Looks like it hit a nursing facility here in US. We could get higher death rate than either Italy or China soon.

 

[otto]

I certainly understand the concern about that attitude toward the elderly in the healthcare context, but in the case of the flu and this virus, it's true. So in the context of discussing whether people in little danger of contracting a serious illness should be cancelling travel plans and buying stores out of face masks, it makes sense to stress that fact. jmo

Absolutely. Those who are confident that the virus will not be a problem for them, or anyone they care about, will carry on as though nothing has changed. I suppose that's what happened in China, Iran, Italy, South Korea, Egypt and other countries with crippled health care systems. Look at the stock market. Is it really a good idea for sick people to infect others simply because it may not be fatal for them?

 

[firebird]

If you look at the daily new case and death rates out of China it’s a 3% death rate there.

Here's what I found from the WSJ and BBC today:

Adults of all ages have been infected, but the risk is highest for older people and those with other health conditions such as diabetes. Most of the 1,023 people whose deaths were included in a study by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention were age 60 or older, and/or had other illnesses. Many patients who have died were admitted to hospitals when their illness was advanced. One large study in China found a mortality rate of 14.8% in people ages 80 and older, and 8% in people ages 70 to 79, compared with a 2.3% mortality rate overall in the population studied.
What We Know About the Coronavirus, From Symptoms to Who Is at Risk

While searching, I found this article about mortality elsewhere.

How deadly is the coronavirus?

 

[LaborDayRN]

Probably sleeping. She stayed up all night last night posting on here and eating up all her Survival Tater Tots......LOL !...... Runaaaaawaay !....moo

That's what I call a carb coma.

 

[Kakidoll]

This just came out in my neck of the woods (Sarasota, FL) I've had a cough for 4 weeks after getting off a cruise.... thing just won't go away.

 

[Henry2326]

Coronavirus updates:
- Germany: 12 new cases, 50 so far today, 129 total
- Israel: 3 new cases today, 10 total
- Iceland: 1 new case, 2 new cases so far today, 3 total Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline
BNO Newsroom on Twitter

 

[Henry2326]

BREAKING: South Korea reports 476 new cases of coronavirus and 1 new death, raising total to 4,212 cases and 22 dead Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline
BNO Newsroom on Twitter

 

[firebird]

You may find the article I posted earlier about the 1918 flu to be helpful in gaining perspective. "Just a flu" is really not a useful guideline since some flu strains do things like what happened in 1918.

How the Horrific 1918 Flu Spread Across America | History | Smithsonian Magazine

Well that's kind of my point. This doesn't seem like a particularly horrific strain based on every single thing I'm reading.

 

[cody22]

Glad you are back from scolding the kiddos, @cody22 . You were missed.

.................................moo

 

[justbeachy]

This just came out in my neck of the woods (Sarasota, FL) I've had a cough for 4 weeks after getting off a cruise.... thing just won't go away.

Here is a link to a news report on it: Coronavirus reported at Sarasota hospital

 

[Tbone144]

More Houston news:
Update: Rice University says research employee being self-quarantined due to possible coronavirus exposure
Update: Rice University says research employee being self-quarantined due to possible coronavirus exposure
Energy conference canceled in Houston due to coronavirus-related travel bans, restrictions
Energy conference canceled in Houston due to coronavirus-related travel bans, restrictions

 

[LaborDayRN]

I say: Do It and Report Back!

With pictures..........

 

[Kakidoll]

Here is a link to a news report on it: Coronavirus reported at Sarasota hospital

I got it thru messenger from a friend before it hit the news. It also made it to FB before the news got it. Panic will probably start tomorrow here. LOTS of snowbirds here right now .

 

[cody22]

View attachment 235554 View attachment 235555

Cruise ship full of Australians is met by rock-throwing protesters as it tries to dock because locals fear coronavirus is on board - as police are forced to use tear gas to end clash

Sun Princess cruise passengers heckled by protesters on Reunion Island over coronavirus fears | Daily Mail Online

That 4th photo down made me spill my coffee........moo

 

[firebird]

Higher than what? Looks like it hit a nursing facility here in US. We could get higher death rate than either Italy or China soon.

A higher overall mortality rate taking all pertinent factors into consideration. I can think of lots of reasons why China's mortality rate would be particulary high. Italy, not so much. But I'm not familiar with the specific region, so that's why I'm curious why the mortality rate is higher there then it is, or is expected to be, in say the UK or the US.

Eta: anyway, we'll see. Just the thread optimist checking in to give y'all some hope

 

[MimosaMornings]

This just came out in my neck of the woods (Sarasota, FL) I've had a cough for 4 weeks after getting off a cruise.... thing just won't go away.

Hope you had a good time on your cruise!
What did the doctor say about your cough? I hope you feel better soon.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

BREAKING: Washington state reports 4 new cases of coronavirus, including 1 new death, in King County Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

BNO Newsroom on Twitter

Statement from King County Public Health confirming 4 new cases of coronavirus, including 1 new death, at the long-term care facility Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline BNO Newsroom on Twitter

The 4 new cases are all elderly residents with underlying health conditions at the long-term care facility. The man who died was in his 70s. The other 3 are in critical condition.
BNO Newsroom on Twitter

Wasn't there a teenager ill in WA state too? They aren't listed here, unless I'm just not seeing it...

Well that's kind of my point. This doesn't seem like a particularly horrific strain based on every single thing I'm reading.

Personally I feel it's far too early to come to that conclusion. Of course to each his own opinion, but I suggest reserving judgment for a month or three. A data set of only a few dozen doesn't make for enduring statistical conclusions.

 

[Henry2326]

This sounds out of control....
__________________

SARASOTA — A patient at Doctors Hospital of Sarasota is being treated for coronavirus, according to a letter distributed to patients and obtained by the Sun.

The letter from Sunday states the hospital was notified by the Centers for Disease Control that "we have a patient in our facility who presumptively tested positive for COVID-19."

The letter states the hospital has "activated all protocols for handling potential COVID-19 cases," it said in a reported letter to its patients.

The Sun was awaiting word for the CDC. Several messages had been left with the government agency.

A patient at the hospital provided the letter on social media after overhearing employees and volunteers discuss the affected patient.

"I pretended I did not hear anything and warned my family not to visit me, until further notice," the patient wrote to the Sun in a text exchange.

The patient's identity is being withheld due to their concern it may affect their care.

The patient said the information was first heard Sunday morning.

The patient said an official "came later on to hand all patients the letter and informed us that the patient is properly secured and they have all guidelines in place."

The patient said they didn't see anyone panicking about the situation and that they had not been told anything more Sunday evening.

"I asked if we were safe, and he said yes, but I don't feel so sure," the patient said. "There is another gentleman across from me coughing and sneezing like crazy."

Coronavirus reported at Sarasota hospital

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Thanks. Yep. So Italy and China have a somewhat higher mortality rate. Wonder why that is? But not the US and other 1st world countries. :::shrug::: Maybe thatt will change. Anyway, I'm definitely not even slightly concerned about it. I'm much more concerned about what the reaction is in the stock market. If I'm not gonna die from it, I'd like to keep as much of my retirement as possible! lol

Yes, the death rate is fluid, and it will and has changed. It's one think that can best be done years afterwards, not in the middle of the initial epidemics as it floats so much.

It's like the R0, it changes based on what we do as countries to address it. And as individuals do (e.g. social distancing/better hygiene by washing hands etc.)

To address your question of why that is that Italy and China have a higher mortality rate..great question as many here may have.

We've discussed on previous threads that if it is only detected in the community/state/country when it has been circulating for some time, it is detected only when severe/critical/deaths happen such as happened in Italy/China you referred to. And in that situation, contact tracing and isolation and quarantine for those is harder and sometimes just impossible. And on top of that, the hospital systems are overwhelmed and cannot take care of all the cases if it explodes. It's playing catch up to folks that were perhaps infected 3 generations of infections ago.

That's the stage that Italy is in right now. And Wuhan was. And others may be such in the VERY early stage such as Washington state in the US.(see how high current US death rate is!)

So, in a new virus to the world episode, the death rate was/is going to be higher in the beginning (Just like the R0). They both are fluid in a new to the world virus outbreak.

Then, after efforts to contain the virus are done, and to get into play the contact tracing and isolation and quarantine (and all that comes with coordinated WHO involvement to the world )... eventually the mortality rate and the R0 is going to go down. (More beds available, docs/nurses familiar with, less person to person all go hand in hand.) Again, think Wuhan.

And then there may be more waves (think Wuhan now/future) where they release the city shut down, folks go back to work, but the R0 again increases. But not as many cases and their health systems are no longer overwhelmed with cases that have on average a hospital stay of 20 days for severe/critical , they have more experience as to how to treat. So the next wave of death rates will be lower MOO. The "bell curve" has flattened.

Hope this helps your understanding.

 

[Lilibet]

Some of us on this thread could very easily die from COVID-19, either because of our age or health conditions or both. I’ve had my pneumonia shots and I get a flu shot every year. But I’m definitely well into the age risk category and have mild asthma. There is no vaccine for this. So I’m more inclined to take precautions and bring in supplies in case my husband and I get stuck for two+ weeks. We have friends who would help us out, but we have other mutual friends who would need more help, so we’d like to be as independent as possible.

If younger ones on the thread who don’t see any risk are disinclined to take precautions and keep traveling, that’s fine. But I would ask that you at least keep your germs and dismissive comments to yourselves (Henny-penny? Seriously?) until we see how this plays out. Then if it turns out to be a big nothingburger, you are welcome to say “I told you so.” But in the meantime, I’m taking this seriously, preparing as well as I reasonably can and hoping for the best. My condolences to the families of those who have died worldwide.