New report finds cases could have tripled in China if heavy restrictions were delayed
From Alexandra Lin and Isaac Yee in Hong Kong
China could have had three times as many coronavirus cases if it had delayed implementing strict quarantine measures by five days, according to a new study.
The report, lead by Chinese respiratory expert Dr. Zhong Nanshan and published February 28, said the finding was based on the use of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) epidemiological modeling.
According to the latest National Health Commission figures, mainland China has recorded 80,151 cases of the virus and 2,943 deaths.
The study concluded that the implementation and control measures on January 23 was "indispensable in reducing the eventual COVID-19 epidemic size."
Earlier action may have contained outbreak: Zhong and his team of experts also claimed that based on their model "had the interventions been introduced five days earlier, the epidemic peak should have been reached by February 15, and the final number of cases would not exceed 25,000."
Second peak prediction: But the study also warned that the easing of quarantine restrictions on Hubei province will allow “an influx of new susceptible individuals i.e., migrants returning from the Spring Festival holidays," leading to a "second epidemic peak in mid-March."
