Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #16

[zencompass]

Update (Canada):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/08/coronavirus-live-updates/

"A government-chartered plane will evacuate the 237 Canadians who are on the ship. The plane will depart San Francisco and arrive at a Canadian military base in Trenton, Ontario, where the passengers will be quarantined for 14 days.

"It is not clear when the flight will depart. The ship, which is carrying more than 3,500 people, is expected to dock in Oakland, Calif., on Monday."

:More than 50 people in four provinces have tested positive for the novel coronavirus in Canada. Most of the cases are travel-related, but there has been community transmission in British Columbia, where officials declared an outbreak at a long-term care home on Saturday. Several provinces have cases linked to the Grand Princess."

 

[Really?]

Thanks for bringing that paper back to new folks. It has been discussed since thread #1, and keeps appearing in the media.

This is a study that was done retrospectively on just 8 patients and was in the media in the beginning to show that asians were predisposed. The scientific community has tried to bury that poor paper. It's scientifically dead, but MSM keeps finding it. A study of 8 people and one asian and they made the conclusion. No! scientists say re asian predispostion all say. MOO

But this keyed many of us here on thread #1/#2 that the ACE-2 receptor is where the COVID-19 attacks. It is in cells the lower lungs at the alveoli level where oxygen transfer happens, not an upper respiratory disease. Dr. C and Dr. Sh.. videos have covered this also.

The virus attacks the ACE-2 receptors on those cells where oxygen transfers at the alveoli level and infects those cells.. multiplies.. the alveoli and lung cells fill with fluid, and cannot transfer oxygen to the blood due to the fluid in the cells (creating ground glass appearance on xray, better seen on CT scans)

.. then the cell dies from infection and the viruses get released and multiply multiply multiply to do the same thing to other lung cells.

And when those cells of the lining die.. it leaves a spot for bacteria to come to that unprotected area where the cell was... and therefore give secondary bacterial infections.

< shivers>

 

[californiagem]

I think the docs know what they are doing.

While I agree the docs know what they are doing, he just visited his father in Arizona in a nursing home, his wife and I work together in the hospital. Testing matters. Spread matter .

 

[zencompass]

The reason I am posting so much from the article is that it has a paywall. I hope you don't mind.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/08/coronavirus-live-updates/

"U.S. can impose lockdown similar to Italy’s on parts of the country, health official says
The United States could follow Italy’s recent plan to restrict a large portion of its population to prevent the new coronavirus from spreading, according to the government’s top health expert.

Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, told Fox News’s Chris Wallace on Sunday that it’s possible for the country to implement a policy similar to Italy’s. The boot-shaped country launched a plan early Sunday morning that will limit about 16 million people in much of the northern areas from moving about."

 

[margarita25]

(Reuters) - New York City could have 100 or more coronavirus cases within two to three weeks, up from 13 now, Mayor Bill de Blasio said on Sunday.

"That pace is going to pick up due to community spread," de Blasio told a news conference. "At some point, we could easily be hundreds of cases."

Um, This sounds like a very conservative estimate, moo, but then again I haven’t even gone down the NY rabbit hole yet. But let’s hypothetically use a very simple random doubling equation formula. Dr. Mike has said be careful about “predictions”, so this is all hypothetical armchair musings.

So

13
26
52
104
208
416
832
1664

That’s 7 days IF the cases were to hypothetically double per day.

Re: modeling, there are obviously many factors wrt clusters, containment, etc., etc., etc.

But, which countries’ figures “doubled”, and at what intervals. Just curious.

This again is that R0 business.

For those who have over 1000 cases...

I’m not going to look at Iran re: this because imo we do not have a clear figure about their early numbers (perhaps there is more information now).


Population density...

I apologize if my posts aren’t very clear today. It’s hard to post when your throat is in your gut and you feel woozy.

—-

So US

Random Doubling formula:

500
1000
2000
4000
8000
16000
32000
64000
128000

 

[zencompass]

U.S. State Department

Cruise Ship Passengers

"Passengers on Cruise Ships"

"U.S. citizens, particularly travelers with underlying health conditions, should not travel by cruise ship. CDC notes increased risk of infection of COVID-19 in a cruise ship environment. In order to curb the spread of COVID-19, many countries have implemented strict screening procedures that have denied port entry rights to ships and prevented passengers from disembarking. In some cases, local authorities have permitted disembarkation but subjected passengers to local quarantine procedures. While the U.S. government has evacuated some cruise ship passengers in recent weeks, repatriation flights should not be relied upon as an option for U.S. citizens under the potential risk of quarantine by local authorities."

"This is a fluid situation. CDC notes that older adults and travelers with underlying health issues should avoid situations that put them at increased risk for more severe disease. This entails avoiding crowded places, avoiding non-essential travel such as long plane trips, and especially avoiding embarking on cruise ships. Passengers with plans to travel by cruise ship should contact their cruise line companies directly for further information and continue to monitor the Travel.state.gov website and see the latest information from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html. "

 

[Henry2326]

Sorry...can't get past the paywall....and I refuse to pay NY Times...lol

this is a MAJOR change: federal officials say containing the coronavirus outbreak is no longer in the table. now the focus will be trying to reduce serious infections as the virus spreads 'We're past the point of containment': Coronavirus fight enters new phase

 

[enelram]

POST OF THE DAY from Mickey2942

"Some people feel more secure with 200 rolls of toilet paper, others feel that stockpiling ammo is their "toilet paper".

 

[Henry2326]

Let's just add everybody....


BREAKING: Saudi Arabia bans travel to and from the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Lebanon, Syria, South Korea, Egypt, Italy, and Iraq due to coronavirus - SPA
BNO Newsroom on Twitter

 

[zecats]

Sorry...can't get past the paywall....and I refuse to pay NY Times...lol

this is a MAJOR change: federal officials say containing the coronavirus outbreak is no longer in the table. now the focus will be trying to reduce serious infections as the virus spreads 'We're past the point of containment': Coronavirus fight enters new phase

Your link took me to the LA Times (not NY). Here is some more of it:

“We’re past the point of containment,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb, commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration during the first two years of President Trump’s administration, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

“We have to implement broad mitigation strategies. The next two weeks are really going to change the complexion in this country. We’ll get through this, but it’s going to be a hard period. We’re looking at two months, probably, of difficulty,” Gottlieb said.

U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams said that shifting to a mitigation phase means that communities will see more cases and need to start thinking about whether it makes sense to cancel large gatherings, close schools and make it more feasible for employees to work from home.

 

[jjenny]

I think the docs know what they are doing.

Haven't we been arguing for days that they don't?

 

[Henry2326]

Number of UK coronavirus cases rises by 30% to 273 Number of UK coronavirus cases rises to 273 Reuters on Twitter

 

[Henry2326]

That simple, huh....

"If Americans could seek testing and care without worrying about co-pays or surprise bills, and if everyone who showed symptoms had paid sick leave, the United States could more easily slow the spread of COVID-19."
Important @juliettekayyem piece:
The U.S. Isn’t Ready for What’s About to Happen

 

[jjenny]

The number of cases in the US is increasing at a significant rate.

...
Tracking Every Coronavirus Case in the U.S.: Full Map

Likely because we started testing a little bit.

 

[jjenny]

Gun paper purell...rock paper scissors game

Well, there is no purell anywhere to be found. But there are plenty of guns.

 

[Henry2326]

1/2 Transcript from my appearance on @FaceTheNation today discussing #coronavirus. We’re losing a narrow window of opportunity to avert a broader epidemic in the U.S. We must adopt strong mitigation steps now in areas of community spread. Transcript: Scott Gottlieb on "Face the Nation," March 8, 2020 - CBS News Scott Gottlieb, MD on Twitter

2/2 Feds, states, mayors, public health experts must work together to develop a systematic approach on when tough mitigation steps should be triggered. We should work from a similar playbook that advances national interest, reduces scope of infection, and protects lives.

Scott Gottlieb, MD on Twitter

 

[margarita25]

Ministers have warned local councils to prepare for a potential coronavirus death toll as high as 100,000 as the UK sees its second death from Covid-19.

Whitehall officials have given the 'central estimate' to Town Halls as the UK moves firmly into the second phase of the government's strategy attempting to delay the spread of the virus

According to the Sunday Times a unit in the housing department has issued guidance to local councils about how many casualties they should prepare for.

When questioned on the figure, First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon - who has dialled in to Cobra meetings on the virus - did not deny the figure.

We're looking at the scientific worst case scenarios," she acknowledged.

Boris Johnson will head a fresh emergency cobra meeting on Monday which will discuss further precautions.

Coronavirus 'could kill 100,000 Brits' as ministers prepare for huge death toll

This is a scary headline. Maybe one of the scariest headlines I’ve ever seen in my life?

Coronavirus 'could kill 100,000 Brits' as ministers prepare for huge death toll

I’m seeing this is the Mirror. Going in for full context. Is this another sensational headline...reading now.

Ok here we go, typing as reading:

“According to the Sunday Times the new figure came after experts revised the initial death toll estimate of 500,000 was given if 80% of the population was infected.

The total was circulated to town hall leaders to prevent panic and included those most likely to die from seasonal flu, which average 17,000 over the past five years.

One official who has been involved in the planning told the newspaper: “The central estimate of deaths is about 100,000.“

[...]

“When asked about the figure the Chair of the Royal College of GPs Professor Martin Marshall said he suspects it's "probably more like a worst case scenario"”

 

[jjenny]

Sorry...can't get past the paywall....and I refuse to pay NY Times...lol

this is a MAJOR change: federal officials say containing the coronavirus outbreak is no longer in the table. now the focus will be trying to reduce serious infections as the virus spreads 'We're past the point of containment': Coronavirus fight enters new phase

Well, jeez, when you don't test, it doesn't mean you don't have cases. It just means you don't know you have cases until people start dying right and left.

 

[Henry2326]

I will be holding a press conference from my office at the Iowa State Capitol at 6:00 pm CST to give an update on the Coronavirus. There will be a live stream available at Governor Kim Reynolds

Gov. Kim Reynolds on Twitter

 

[galiuro1]

As coronavirus overwhelms California health officials, hope of 'containment' fades

The crackling of a police loudspeaker drew neighbors out of their homes to observe an unusual spectacle on a typically quiet residential street: a California county trying to force a resident to respect quarantine orders.

Some officials have acknowledged that the spread of the virus is beyond their control, and there is widening discussion on whether they should shift from a strategy of tracking every potential exposure to asking the public to limit social gatherings.

Heidi Wolter, a Napa County resident, said she called the county and identified herself as a passenger after she read about a fellow traveler on the ship testing positive in Sonoma County. She said she experienced a five-day headache and suspected her elderly mother may have been in contact with Placer County victims. But she struggled to get through to a nurse, who didn’t offer her any help seeking a test, she said.

"I am not trying to panic anybody, but I am just trying to let you know [people] that were exposed to this stuff are out there and they are running amok,” Wolter said. “I’m sure there are people from the cruise who don’t even know they shouldn’t be rubbing elbows.”

Its not taking 2 weeks...